SMALL WARS COUNCIL
Go Back   Small Wars Council > Conflicts -- Current & Future > Other, By Region > Middle East

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-16-2015   #221
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 11,157
Default Two weeks in Libya

The result of touring around a long article in the New Yorker:http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/20...23/unravelling

I was wondering what happened to those Libyans who went home to oust Gadafy, the author says:
Quote:
Many of the young Libyans I met during the revolution are now in Tunisia, Egypt, Bulgaria, London—anywhere but Libya. The exiles who came back to build a new country have largely left.
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-16-2015   #222
AdamG
Council Member
 
AdamG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
Posts: 2,158
Default

Dual posting -

Quote:
Sixty-four Islamic State fighters have been killed and dozens wounded in Egyptian-Libyan military airstrikes on Libya, announced the spokesperson of the Libyan military, reported Al-Ahram.
http://egyptianstreets.com/2015/02/1...s-in-24-years/
__________________
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg
AdamG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-18-2015   #223
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 11,157
Default Don't panic: planning for Libya

Some of the recent reporting on Libya (not linked here) reminds me of the WW2 British slogan 'Don't Panic, Stay Calm and Carry On'.

Caveat aside there is a report by the London-based Quilliam Foundation, based on:
Quote:
On 23 January 2015, a prominent supporter of Islamic State (IS) – the group that now controls much of Iraq and Syria – uploaded an essay, written in Arabic, entitled “Libya: The Strategic Gateway for the Islamic State”, on why jihadists needed to urgently flock to Libya to assist supporters of the so-called caliphate in their jihad.
Link to report, note the actual ISIS document is only 6 pgs in 15 pgs:http://www.quilliamfoundation.org/wp...for-the-is.pdf

Whilst Quilliam do not name the author, the Daily Telegraph do:
Quote:
The Isil propagandist, who uses the alias Abu Arhim al-Libim...
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...to-Europe.html
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-15-2015   #224
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 11,157
Default Who Wants What in Libya?

An excellent BBC World Service podcast 'Who Wants What in Libya?' and not a single UK or US expert cited. It lasts 24 mins:http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/inquiry

Nice comparison drawn between the Paris peace talks on Vietnam and the UN talks with Libyans, akin to:
Quote:
There's no table yet, we have not got that far.
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2015   #225
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 11,157
Default The Islamic State’s Strategy in Libya

A short explanation by Carnegie of the Islamic State’s Strategy in Libya; an example:
Quote:
..the Islamic State’s strategy in Libya seems to be directed instead at hastening state failure and fracturing the population’s sense of common nationhood. Meanwhile, it is also intensifying the conditions that will allow it to deepen its influence and form a national-religious identity in line with the caliphate’s own views.
Link:http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/20...-in-libya/i4w6
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-24-2015   #226
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 11,157
Default Moving up the agenda outside Libya?

The civil war, now with a dash of ISIS, does get some attention in the media, albeit with rare in-country reporting. Instead the consequences of the absence of a working Libyan state is seen in the number of emigrants, refugees and possible terrorists transiting the country to get a boat north to Europe - invariably Italy - are well reported here in Europe.

Just whether anyone will intervene in Libya is a moot point. One Italian minister has murmured about 'protection', but Italy has a rather violent history pre-1939 when it occupied and colonised the country. Egypt and another Gulf kingdom sometimes launch air strikes.

Just whether this headline is justified, even true is debateable and it is in The Daily Mail, albeit by a Franco-Algerian Muslim journalist:
Quote:
Britain is 'helping turn Libya into a cradle of terrorism' exporting killers to Europe amid thousands of illegal immigrants
Link:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...mmigrants.html
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2015   #227
smellthebeans
Registered User
 
smellthebeans's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 4
Default

Anyone here actually been watching what has been occurring in Libya (Sirte, Derna, Benghazi) over the last 45 days?
smellthebeans is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2015   #228
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 11,157
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by smellthebeans View Post
Anyone here actually been watching what has been occurring in Libya (Sirte, Derna, Benghazi) over the last 45 days?
Like others in Europe I have watched the civil war develop, now with ISIS on the prowl and sadly recoiled from too close a watch. Civil wars are rarely simple and invariably horrible.

There is relatively little reporting on Libya, in part as I suspect most media outlets rarely venture there, so one relies on agency and other sources.

The increasing flow of migrants via Libya across the Mediterranean to Italian territory gets more attention than the civil war, aided by the ability to report and of course endless pictures.

If you have been watching perhaps you can help to explain what has happened?
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-22-2015   #229
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 11,157
Default Demise of an ex-Saddamist in Libya

A short comment by blogger Kyle Orton, it starts with:
Quote:
An Islamic State (ISIS) commander was killed in Libya in mid-June, The Daily Beast reported yesterday, after being “paraded … through the streets amid the taunts of onlookers, and then walked … to a gallows, where he was hanged.” This occurred in the eastern city of Derna, long a hotbed of Islamic militancy. The crucial thing about the “executed” ISIS operative is that he was an Iraqi and an FRE—a former (Saddam) regime element—who had been dispatched to Libya last year to oversee the cultivation of an ISIS branch.
Link:https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/...mist-in-libya/
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2015   #230
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 11,157
Default This is a rich country, but they can't agree on who should run it.

Just two posts away I said:
Quote:
There is relatively little reporting on Libya....
This AM John Simpson, the BBC's Chief Foreign Correspondent, was on the radio from Tripoli:
Quote:
The main airport has been destroyed, all the main embassies have been closed down, the big international hotels all stand empty. There are long and frequent power cuts. And yet Tripoli appears entirely calm.

It is quiet because the city has been carved up by two rival warlords, and their forces are so finely balanced that it is not in the interests of either of them to attack the other. And directly you look below the surface, you start to find the problems that afflict people here.
No TV footage yet:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-33673034
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2015   #231
SWJ Blog
Council Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 10,781
Default The new Libya: various aspects

‘Confronting ISIS in Libya: The Case for an Expeditionary Counterinsurgency’

A SWJ article which includes a review of recent history regarding the civil war / insurgency, plus a few maps. A good read too.

Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-31-2015 at 04:59 PM. Reason: Copied here and edited.
SWJ Blog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2015   #232
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 11,157
Default

Dr Omar Ashour's latest paper for Brookings: 'Between ISIS and a failed state: The saga of Libyan Islamists' (15 pgs):http://t.co/zeHpp4EfON

The summary:
Quote:
Libya’s diverse Islamist actors played a substantial role in the 2011 armed revolution against Moammar Gadhafi and the subsequent collapse of Libya’s democratization process into armed conflict. The advances of ISIS in Libya and the breakdown of Brotherhood electoral activism in neighboring Egypt, however, present an ideological and recruitment challenge to Libya’s Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi factions.
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-08-2015   #233
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 11,157
Default 2011 a taxi driver; 2015 an oil minister

Catching up, a three week old article from The Spectator, by a journalist who went there. With the title and sub-title:
Quote:
Cameron’s talking to the wrong Libyan government. He should call my old driverThere are real reasons to worry about Libya Dawn – but also real reasons to try to work with them
Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/...my-old-driver/

Near the end:
Quote:
It’s not the first time the West has walked away from a land they supposedly liberated, leaving a mess, I pointed out. At some point, Libya will have to sort out its problems on its own.
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-23-2015   #234
smellthebeans
Registered User
 
smellthebeans's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 4
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
A short comment by blogger Kyle Orton, it starts with:
Link:https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/...mist-in-libya/
If this did indeed occur where are all the photographs? Social Media would be blown up with this. Especially when you consider the Mujahideen Shura Council Derna's recent public affairs blitz.
smellthebeans is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2015   #235
CrowBat
Council Member
 
CrowBat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Haxbach, Schnurliland
Posts: 1,471
Default

By far not everything is caught by the 'social media'; and 90% of what is reported on social media in Arabic never reaches English-language 'areas'.
CrowBat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2015   #236
smellthebeans
Registered User
 
smellthebeans's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 4
Default

Good point!

But there are a couple of reliable observers on Twitter. Charlie Winters, Daniele Raineri, Mary Fitzger to name a few.

Last edited by smellthebeans; 12-03-2015 at 01:03 AM.
smellthebeans is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2015   #237
smellthebeans
Registered User
 
smellthebeans's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 4
Default

Much of the news reporting recently has pointed to this U.N. report.

Dash's long term prospects not good because they are seen as a foreign entity. True and when compared to AQ tied leaders & brokers the deficit looks pretty big.

http://untribune.com/wp-content/uplo...-Libya-ENG.pdf
smellthebeans is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2016   #238
CrowBat
Council Member
 
CrowBat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Haxbach, Schnurliland
Posts: 1,471
Default

Ex-Egyptian MiG-21MF '18' of the Free Libyan Air Force, only recently overhauled by technicians at Gamal Abdel Nasser AB (ex RAF el-Adem, south of Tobruq), was shot down by Islamists over Bo Atni district of Benghazi, yesterday morning:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRa8GBoV4Cg

Pilot ejected safely.

In line with what all the air forces seem to do in recent conflicts, LNA/FLAF declared the loss as caused by technical problem.
CrowBat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2016   #239
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 11,157
Default March to Folly 2.0: The Next Western Military Intervention in Libya

From ECFR by a recommended Italian SME (via Twitter) and starts with:
Quote:
Those who want to bring the western war against the Islamic State to Libya insist, as a US official put it in a private conversation, that any intervention would be about IS not about Libya. Alas, regardless of what it will be about, it will take place in Libya. That simple geographic reality means the complex political feuds and intrigues that have plagued Libya politics for the last five years will inevitably intrude on any Western intervention. Ultimately, a Western intervention that fails to account for Libyan politics and fails to consider what will replace ISIS in the event it is defeated will have no benefit for Libya or for the West.
Link:http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentar...vention_in5083

Link to ECFR author's bio:http://www.ecfr.eu/profile/C238
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2016   #240
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 11,157
Default


From the Soufan Group via Twitter. Possibly from this report last week:http://soufangroup.com/libya-extremi...s-of-collapse/
__________________
davidbfpo

Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-06-2016 at 03:05 PM.
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Tags
algeria, aqim, gadafy, insurgency, islam, islamism, jihad, libya, mali, nato, niger, sahel, tripoli

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Coupla Questions From a Newbie kwillcox RFIs & Members' Projects 4 02-09-2007 07:32 AM


All times are GMT. The time now is 07:33 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9. ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Registered Users are solely responsible for their messages.
Operated by, and site design © 2005-2009, Small Wars Foundation