I thought this might be of interest.
http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish...t-Gbagbo.shtml
French Masons and the Ivory Coast
I thought this might be of interest.
http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish...t-Gbagbo.shtml
Gbagbo Agrees to Talks
Ivory Coast's Laurent Gbagbo has agreed to negotiate a "peaceful end" to his country's crisis without preconditions, regional leaders say.
The chairman of the Ecowas regional group said Mr Gbagbo had also agreed to immediately lift the blockade around the temporary headquarters of his presidential rival Alassane Ouattara.
Stan, of course you are correct in that even after a few years in Nigeria as ambassador he remains a long way from being an Africa expert. I wish there was something like the "congressional voting record" one could apply to the analyst/chattering class. Very soon we would see who knew what he was talking about.Originally Posted by Stan
Hey JMA,
Agreed, and I did provide some weak links to support my theories regarding our Administrations' amateur Africanists
However, a tour or two and later a self-proclaimed expert on the region worries me; be it military and/or civilian. They are flattering themselves at best and simultaneously showing our inept ability to comprehend African politics.
Lets just look at what he said again:
That would seem obvious to me but believe it or not there are a lot of self proclaimed smart guys at State who think differently or see not problem/pattern taking shape across Africa.Because what power sharing does is that it enables a big man who has lost an election to remain in power, and from that perspective this is a particularly sensitive time in Africa.
The spread of power sharing may well tempt those who lose those elections to try to either somehow hang onto power or gain power or (even) some options of power.
Power sharing is undemocratic,’’
In the classic tradition of Africa they take one step forward (holding elections where none were held before) then one step back by refusing to accept the outcome and trying to negotiate personal terms over the wishes of the people under the threat of mass bloodshed). And the smart guys at State are saying... "but at least they are holding elections."
Well one learns from Africa that "when the elephants fight it is the grass that gets trampled" - (Kikuyu proverb).Too many from my days and second guessing your African political opponents with ca 1970s studies can only lead us to an ineffective policy for engagements in the most important Francophone country in the region.
So why it is not obvious to State if you want to avoid the "grass getting trampled" (and end up paying billions in humanitarian aid, reconstruction projects etc etc) you take the bad elephants out before they cause damage? Quick and clean.
Then another obvious Africa proverb "If you want to kill a snake hit it on the head."
Maybe we should run a seminar for the clowns at State called "The Art of the Obvious"
Regards, StanThe US might have had the last word with Charles Taylor, but we don't have a hope or prayer here. IMO the current administration still doesn't get the internal dynamics of the Ivory Coast and West Africa.
Good heavens Stan, you mean beyond fun on the cocktail party circuit the US State department has little to show for the last fifty years (or so) of engagement with Africa?
Last edited by SWCAdmin; 01-10-2011 at 02:07 AM. Reason: restored post from e-hiccup; post timestamp is approx
JMA,Originally Posted by JMA
Stan, of course you are correct in that even after a few years in Nigeria as ambassador he remains a long way from being an Africa expert. I wish there was something like the "congressional voting record" one could apply to the analyst/chattering class. Very soon we would see who knew what he was talking about.
Lets just look at what he said again:
Because what power sharing does is that it enables a big man who has lost an election to remain in power, and from that perspective this is a particularly sensitive time in Africa.
The spread of power sharing may well tempt those who lose those elections to try to either somehow hang onto power or gain power or (even) some options of power.
Power sharing is undemocratic,’’
This is where I think we've lost sight of African leadership and mentality. Years ago opposition in both Brazzaville and Kinshasa was swiftly dealt with (fish food for those along the Congo river). Of course there's no power sharing among former presidents, and to naively think we could leave the outgoing president to live in harmony while the his replacement serves is absurd. It might work for most and supposedly Russia, but nowhere in Africa is there solid evidence of a happy ending. Exactly where (other than say Ghana) has a president simply stepped down following elections (that they seldom held before), and lived happily ever after ?
And sadly not just State. I was sitting with my boss in Kinshasa during the uprisings and civil war in Brazzaville (our purported E&E if Zaire went bang again), when an officer reported a "solid shot" artillery projectile going through an adobe hutOriginally Posted by JMA
That would seem obvious to me but believe it or not there are a lot of self proclaimed smart guys at State who think differently or see not problem/pattern taking shape across Africa.
In the classic tradition of Africa they take one step forward (holding elections where none were held before) then one step back by refusing to accept the outcome and trying to negotiate personal terms over the wishes of the people under the threat of mass bloodshed). And the smart guys at State are saying... "but at least they are holding elections."
("how about UXO" I remarked with tears coming out of my eyes and severe stomach pains from hysterical laughter).
"Stan, we're only as strong as our weakest link" my Ranger boss contended as we would soon have the same colonel on our team in Rwanda (he lasted less than 5 weeks before the French would no longer house him and my boss sent him back home packing). This colonel went on to become Clinton's adviser to Africa
My Lingala is a bit rusty, but this one I recall well...Originally Posted by JMA
Well one learns from Africa that "when the elephants fight it is the grass that gets trampled" - (Kikuyu proverb).
Moto ya soso balabi, libata aseki, mpo nzungu ya lobi nde ya ye, mokili tour tour.
Literally translated means "The chicken's head is cooking while the duck laughs. But it forgets that tomorrow's pot will contain its head. Something like what comes around, goes around !
Our years of meddling with Africa have taught us nothing. Now, with reduced funding we witlessly conclude we can simply call someone and say stop !
Hmmm, the cocktail party circuit ? Now that I'm no longer part of that and pining away in this freezing country I recall some really good times at the Ambassador's residence watching AA fire crossing the river... like the 4th of July. Some of my best times and contacts were at gun pointOriginally Posted by JMA
Good heavens Stan, you mean beyond fun on the cocktail party circuit the US State department has little to show for the last fifty years (or so) of engagement with Africa?
Who decides which elephants to "take out", and who does the dirty work? Sounds simple enough, but preemptive whacking of leaders we think might do damage raises certain complexities of its own.Originally Posted by JMA
Its been decided, in this case its Laurent Gbagbo. Decided by the UN, the AU, the US, France, Britain etc etc. The bad elephant has been identified.
Who does the dirty work? Why dirty work? Its an international duty towards the people of the Ivory Coast. Can't seem to get ECOWAS to put their money where their mouths are (after bellicose mutterings) and don't hold your breath for NATO countries... the Hungarians are still waiting from 1956 for help against the Soviets. Don't hold your breath for the UN... the people of Rwanda and Srebrenica are still waiting for the UN assistance.
So really there is no cavalry coming to the assistance of the people of Ivory Coast is there.
Short of looking for funding to send Executive Outcomes in to do the business the easy way would be to put a US$1m bountry on Gbagbo's head. I'm sure some bodyguard will go for the money.
The idea is to deal with the elephants before the grass gets trampled.
Identifying a bad guy is one thing, deciding to "take him out" is another. Who do you expect to do that?
No, there isn't. Who has interests in the Ivory Coast that would justify the expense of sending the cavalry? Whose cavalry do you think ought to ride to the rescue, and at whose expense?
Who do you think should offer - and pay - the money?
In the unlikely event that the US or anyone else were to intervene, send cavalry, or start bunging cruise missiles about the place, wouldn't the intervening party be just more elephant trampling the grass? I don't suppose it matters much to the grass whether the elephant doing the trampling is good or bad.
It's all very well to suggest that "we" should go launching cruise missiles, but as far as I know we (the inmates at SWJ) are not in a position to do that. I certainly haven't any cruise missiles at my disposal, have you? Mostly only governments do, and they are somewhat restricted in where they can send them. The US isn't likely to be firing missiles at anyone unless they can at least muster a vague pretense that the target is a threat to US security. The potential for fluctuations in the global price of cocoa does not count as a security threat.
ECOWAS have been huffing and puffing. But remember my point was it is better to take one person out with minimal collateral damage than to let him start another civil war.
ECOWAS was threatening military action. But I would agree that unless France or the EU put up the cash it will not happen.No, there isn't. Who has interests in the Ivory Coast that would justify the expense of sending the cavalry? Whose cavalry do you think ought to ride to the rescue, and at whose expense?
The country where Ivory Coast has money in the bank. Do the business then take the money from the account. I'm sure President Alassane Ouattara won't mind as long as he get his country back.Who do you think should offer - and pay - the money?
No. A targeted missile strike is quick and clean and if timed right can fix the problem right then and there.In the unlikely event that the US or anyone else were to intervene, send cavalry, or start bunging cruise missiles about the place, wouldn't the intervening party be just more elephant trampling the grass? I don't suppose it matters much to the grass whether the elephant doing the trampling is good or bad.
Cocoa? Yes then maybe Cadbury or Hershey would be prepared to pay so as to keep the cocoa price down and the flow of product stable?It's all very well to suggest that "we" should go launching cruise missiles, but as far as I know we (the inmates at SWJ) are not in a position to do that. I certainly haven't any cruise missiles at my disposal, have you? Mostly only governments do, and they are somewhat restricted in where they can send them. The US isn't likely to be firing missiles at anyone unless they can at least muster a vague pretense that the target is a threat to US security. The potential for fluctuations in the global price of cocoa does not count as a security threat.
What in my view should be done and whether it is ever done and by whom is not the issue here it is merely a recommended course of action (by me). And given the gross incompetence of the West (and old Soviets) in dealing with Africa over many years a clear change in policy is sorely needed... because in any event the West will pick up the humanitarian bill... and you see if they don't.
OK, I'll bite !
Wish the link text was a little larger - hard to read.
Are the African Leaders and other powerful Africans really, truly, members of the French Masons ? Or, similar to what I witnessed and was later told, these memberships are but token gestures to keep the peace if you will ?
The Rotary Club and Lions Club among others were constantly complaining to the Ambassadors and American Chamber of Commerce over providing symbolic and free of charge memberships to African leaders and other powerful interest group leaders.
This seems more of a right of passage than true participating membership. Although, and in keeping with the typical African business savy, they still manage to squander funds that purportedly end up supporting some political office. While that may certainly be true of real Masons around the world, they have yet to come face-to-face with Africa and her leaders.
I personally wouldn't believe anything an African banker told me... Especially not over cocktails and dinner with US diplomats
If you want to blend in, take the bus
I have a secret...
Ok, i did try and I don't bite it! Could not even go to the end of the text.
Yes ENA (Ecole Nationale d'Administration) and Polytechnique are among the 5 most prestigious private schools in France but it just does not work as they describe it.
By the way the aim of ENA is to educate and train high level civil servants! most of the politicians and diplomats... in France went there. No secret neither conspiracy.
Polytechnique was created to train officers... We also have Ecole des Mines
which was made to train high level civil servants by Louis 13... And Central with many nobel prices... By the way, if you graduate those schools, until recently, you were automatically an officer for the reserve. That was a post WW1 law! But shhhhhhh
Most of the African families in Francophone Africa send their children to be educated in France. Yes, so what? They all end up in a secret society?
I have a secret, some African president did serve in the French Army and the French Army is training, in secret, their "special forces"...
But if we want to talk about the Mason role in this part of Africa, let's talk about Liberia! That's more interresting, historically documented and actually true.
Coming back to Ivory Coast, it seems that US tried to give Bagbo an opportunity to get asylum in Atlanta.
Not on my tax dollars
It is now more evident why he refused to speak with president Obama, if all we could offer was life in Georgia
If you want to blend in, take the bus
But who will listen?
Now here is a yank who seems to have learned something during his time in Africa.
US envoy cautions against power sharing in Ivory Coast
Simple and self evident... but not to Washington, Paris and London it seems.``Because what power sharing does is that it enables a big man who has lost an election to remain in power, and from that perspective this is a particularly sensitive time in Africa.
``The spread of power sharing may well tempt those who lose those elections to try to either somehow hang onto power or gain power or (even) some options of power.
``Power sharing is undemocratic,’’
In words, but not deeds ?
Hey JMA,
Actually that yank you're referring to has a lot of (recent) history, and not that great a history, both at home and especially abroad.
Limited understanding
“appears to take delight in inciting instability in Nigeria with his entire thesis based on a worst case scenario and seeming relish in willing it to occur.
Former US Ambassador advocates Military Rule for Nigeria
that military intervention could indeed be a “positive” for the country.
John Campbell Is Wrong On Nigeria Again
Wikileaks anyoneif Mr. Campbell’s primary motive was centered around helping Nigeria avert chaos, he would have sent his concerns along with appropriate recommendations to the Nigerian authorities. In a situation where the Nigerian authorities ignore him, he could have privately made same recommendations to the US State department to address his Nigerian concerns.
However, he might actually entertain your "3 Cruise Missile theory"
Regards, Stan
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Hi Stan, Not to detract from how on the button I believe he is with regard to Ivory Coast I note that his predictions for Nigeria (contained in a book) are what has upset some Nigerians.
Upsetting the Nigerian Foreign Minister and a Nigerian blogger into critical responses (to his ideas) is hardly evidence of wholesale condemnation of what he writes/predicts.
Consider that Nigeria with its North/South Muslim/Christian divide is in reality just a larger version of Ivory Coast with the larger potential for calamity.
Well the body count is at 210 and all we are getting is talk, talk, talk (and some behind the scenes pressure). Lets wait and see.However, he might actually entertain your "3 Cruise Missile theory"
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