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Thread: China's Emergence as a Superpower (2015 onwards)

  1. #21
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default What are the Chinese up to in Australia?

    IMHO a strange article from WoTR which suggests the Australian-US alliance is threatened by the Chinese ownership of the port facilities @ Darwin:http://warontherocks.com/2015/12/wha...in-australia/?

    Here is a sample passage:
    ....Australia is betting Chinese access to the Darwin Port will not strategically endanger the presence and training of Australian Defense Force (ADF) units and their American counterparts. The cost-benefit calculations of welcoming Chinese investment just a few miles from U.S. and ADF forces simply do not add up: Greater risks to national security emerge amid limited economic benefits for the Northern Territory. Speculation about whether Darwin will ultimately transition from a Chinese-managed commercial port to a clandestine hub for Chinese espionage of Australian and U.S. forces, or even more seriously, an impediment to the U.S.–Australian security relationship in use as a Chinese naval logistics facility merit closer examination, given implications for Australian and American security and defense ties.
    The author overlooks the wider Sino-US relationship, yes ownership of port facilities is noteworthy, a far greater threat to US security is the PRC's ownership of so many US Treasury bonds.
    davidbfpo

  2. #22
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Good catches, those NYT articles are a fine read. Especially the one about Africa.

    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    The author overlooks the wider Sino-US relationship, yes ownership of port facilities is noteworthy, a far greater threat to US security is the PRC's ownership of so many US Treasury bonds.
    To be honest the view that Chinese investment into US Treasury bonds is something of a threat is at best overblown. What can they do once they bought them, sell them?

    Personally one of the best strategic things happening to the US is the large amount of Chinese money streaming into the country, especially the housing market. While I understand that in some localities this causes problem for US housebuyers overall it provides an economic boost for sellers and builders and might dampen the threat of conflict as increasingly large Chinese assets are put at risk is such case. Even more so if the influx of students continues...
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  3. #23
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    The greatest economic story of the last four decades has been Chinese growth, which has enabled hundreds of millions to escape poverty and to embrace new opportunities. The huge benefits however came with clear costs, of which the air pollution is the most widely known.*

    The strategic implications of China's hunger for ressources have been discussed earlier so I want to focus in the next posts on the great Chinese push in renewable energy, electric transport and related factors. Combined it wil reduce or at least dampen some energy imports, although it will hardly change the fact that China needs vast volumes of trade with the rest of the world, especially the west.

    Installed Wind capacity has become big but transmission is still problematic:

    “China is a vast land, and here in Xinjiang, we’re very far away from the rest of the country,” Zhu said. “We need transmission to send this electricity thousands of miles away.”

    Zhu points to the south, where Goldwind has just built nearly a hundred top-of-the-line turbines. The fierce wind blows through them, too, but their blades aren’t turning. Goldwind is waiting for China’s electrical grid to catch up.

    The government’s building five ultra-high transmission lines in Xinjiang to send this energy to the places that need it, but it will take time. “A huge transmission line takes three to five years to build, but a wind farm only takes a year to build, said former Goldwind CEO Yu Wuming.

    And that’s why, said Goldwind’s Zhu Xinxiang, 40 percent of the electricity generated by Dabancheng in the past year went nowhere. The energy could have powered a million homes, preventing air pollution and reducing China’s carbon footprint, but there weren’t transmission lines in place to carry it all
    China has invested more then any country in HVDC lines but there is still much work to be done.



    China has vastly expended it's wind capacity and is currently likely World leader however the grid problems will hold energy production greatly back which is a big problem from ROI to pollution.

    All in all wind generation greatly profits from the technological developments of the last years and the sparsely populated interior regions should increasingly provide the densly populated coastal East with electricity.



    Higher gross capacity will in the long run lessen the storage problem and should push prices down.

    The two graphics come from the excellent blog of Ramez Naam.


    *It is important to point out that heavy industries and heating with coal had a devastating impact on Chinese cities already fifty years ago, think early late 19th century Europe.
    Last edited by Firn; 12-07-2015 at 08:30 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  4. #24
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Forget to post the wind potential of China. Obviously such maps should be just taken as a very rough guide at a more or less current state of technology. Developments as those outlined above increase the capacity per area.



    The growth of Wind power can be better illustrated with a graph:





    That Solar starts to shares some of the problems of Wind is a sign of the times:

    Around 9% of China’s solar PV capacity was forced to sit idle for the first six months of 2015, NEA reports, with the northwestern regions of Gansu and Xinjiang home to the majority of dormant generators.

    As the pace of renewable electricity capacity accelerates, some sections of the Chinese grid have been unable to absorb the new generation adequately, forcing authority bodies to either delay solar PV connection or leave idle those solar farms that cannot be satisfactorily integrated into the grid.
    Of course this also happens to some fossil plants but the nature of renewables with a high initial investment and free energy input make such grid problems a lot riskier for the investors.




    Growth has been strong indeed:

    According to the latest statistics from China’s National Energy Administration (NEA), installed capacity for the country’s PV power generation reached 37.95 GW as of the end of September, with 31.70 GW provided by PV power stations and 6.25 GW coming from distributed PV power projects. For the nine months, the country added 9.9 GW of PV power generation capacity, an increase of 161 percent when compared with the same period of a year earlier. The amount includes 8.32 GW from PV power stations and 1.58 GW from distributed PV power projects.
    I don't know of course the specifics of the Chinese dealmaking but I found the return on investment rather interesting:

    China Photovoltaic Industry Association chairman Gao Jifan explained that, throughout the whole industry chain, the internal rate of return for development projects at China’s PV power stations has been ranging between 8 percent and 10 percent, significantly higher than the average level for the manufacturing sector overall.
    There is no doubt that China could in the long run replace fossil fuel and even nuclear with renewables when it comes to the production of electricity. It's a question of rather simple math and investmentsm into a process which will take time. But what about heating and transport?
    Last edited by Firn; 12-10-2015 at 09:33 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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    Transport has also undergone a massive transformation in the last decades, be it by air or land, car or train, bicycle or electroscooter. And indeed China has led the world in two-wheeled electromobility, with around 200 million electric two-wheelers moving now mostly people through it's cities and villages.

    2015 has been the year where China, the world's largest car market, also took the lead (no pun intended) in electric cars with up to 250000 units sold.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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    BEIJING - China has created three new military units and will update equipment as well as modernising its command structure, state media said on Friday, as part of a major overhaul of the armed forces announced by President Xi Jinping in November.

    Xi's push to reform the military coincides with China becoming more assertive in its territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas. China's navy is investing in submarines and aircraft carriers and its air force is developing stealth fighters.

    At a ceremony on Thursday, Xi inaugurated a new general command unit for the army, a missile force and a strategic support force for People's Liberation Army (PLA), state news agency Xinhua said.

    State television showed Xi handing over a large red flag to Li Zuocheng, the new head of the land command force. Li was previously commander of the key Chengdu military region, which includes restless and strategically vital Tibet.

    The missile force is taking over from the Second Artillery Corps to control the country's nuclear arsenal but keeping the same commander, Wei Fenghe.

    Xinhua said Xi urged the new unit to "enhance nuclear deterrence and counter-strike capacity, medium- and long-range precision strike ability, as well as strategic check-and-balance capacity to build a strong and modern Rocket Force".

    His reforms include establishing a joint operational command structure by 2020 and rejigging existing military regions, as well as cutting troop numbers by 300,000, a surprise announcement he made in September.



    In a separate report listing the powerful Central Military Commission's recommendations on the reform process, Xinhua said the troop cuts will focus on non-combat personnel.

    Phasing out old equipment and developing new weaponry as well as reducing the number of models operated will be another big feature of the reforms, Xinhua said.

    China has been moving rapidly to upgrade its military hardware, but integration of complex systems across a regionalised command structure has been a major challenge.

    The troop cuts and broader reform programme have proven controversial, though, and the military's newspaper has published a series of commentaries warning of opposition to the reforms and concern about job losses.

    Xi has also made rooting out deeply entrenched corruption in the military a top priority, and dozens of senior officers have been investigated and jailed. —Reuters
    - See more at: http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story....g2Af9tjl.dpuf
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
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  7. #27
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    China's jittery investors/speculators and the opaque regulators with rather counterproductive, often-changing rules offer a first-class movie.



    Great stuff. Overall the service factor seems to do very well, put the index is mostly composed by SOE, among them many manufactores. But then again value and price are two different concepts and not necessarily tied closely together, at any rate not in the Chinese stock market.

    Lots of movement in the reserves and the currencies, too...
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  8. #28
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Operation Fox Hunt

    China's controversial campaign to hunt down alleged white-collar criminals living abroad netted 857 fugitives last year, the country's public security ministry said....Of those repatriated last year, 366 turned themselves in, the ministry said in a statement on its website late Wednesday -- implying that nearly 500 were seized against their will. The wanted individuals were returned from 66 countries and regions, the ministry said, including the United States, Spain and Italy, and over 70 percent had lived outside China for five years or more.
    Link:http://www.iphone.afp.com/afpv3/AFP_....doc.7g9kn.htm

    It would be interesting to know if any of those "visited" by Chinese representatives and not persuaded / seized later were legally extradited. How many nations would decline a request?
    davidbfpo

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    Default After the Rise

    http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/a...4de47-62731673

    After the Rise: China Enters Uncharted Waters

    Although its previously explosive economic growth has slowed, China’s growing geopolitical clout continues to reshape the balance of power, regionally and beyond. From its relations with the U.S. and its aggressive actions in the South China Sea, to its regional foreign policy and economic prospects, China remains a mixed bag of promise, risk and uncertainty.
    The article summarizes many challenges that China presents to the regional and global order. I only pasted one of these challenges below.

    New Order: China’s Challenge to the Global Financial System

    China is an economic titan, but until recently, its impressive rise had not been accompanied by a vision to reshape the global economic order, Daniel McDowell wrote last April. However, with the introduction of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the promotion of the yuan as a global currency, that began to change, as Beijing slowly works to revise foundational elements of the U.S.-led economic order.

  10. #30
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Default Hybrid Warfare with Chinese Characteristics

    Taiwan was once the principal target of China’s hybrid warfare activities. Not any more, says Michael Raska. Members of the European Union have also become the focus of Beijing’s strategic influence operations, especially those countries that are part of China’s 16+1 regional cooperation formula.
    http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Libra...g=en&id=195268
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    Default China Has Read Clausewitz, Carefully.

    New Tensions in the South China Sea by James Holmes/Reuters/19Feb2016. See:http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debat...uth-china-sea/

    In a move that should surprise precisely no one, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has positioned surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) on one of its South China Sea islands — namely Woody Island, home to Sansha, the administrative capital for the islands, atolls, and other geographic features Beijing claims in the Paracels and Spratlys. For Beijing this move makes eminent sense on many levels: it constitutes yet another reply to American and Southeast Asian challenges to its claims of “indisputable sovereignty” over most of the South China Sea.

    For a 19th-century Prussian take on the situation, think about Carl von Clausewitz’s definition of war. War, opines the West’s master of strategy, is essentially fighting, while fighting in turn is “a trial of moral and physical forces through the medium of the latter.” That is, it’s a test of wills settled through deploying manpower and hardware for battlefield encounters. Whoever prevails by force of arms wins — and breaks the enemy’s resolve to continue the fight in the process. Battlefield victory begets strategic and political success.

    A war of words, on the other hand, might be described as a trial of moral and physical forces through the medium of perceived physical force. To prevail in a peacetime showdown, convince the opponent and influential outsiders that you would have won in actual combat. Do that — make believers out of important audiences — and you may reap the rewards of victory without enduring the hazards, costs, and sheer caprice of combat. You may win without fighting — as sane leaders everywhere want to.

    The missile deployment represents Beijing’s way of trying to make Asian and Western competitors believers in the PLA’s unbeatable martial prowess. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported spotting two batteries of eight HQ-9 missiles apiece, along with the associated search and fire-control radars. Admiral Harry Harris, commander of the Hawaii-based U.S. Pacific Command, confirmed the report while condemning China’s “militarization” of South China Sea waters and skies — something China’s President Xi Jinping has vowed not to do. Harris’ words corroborate the reporting out of Taipei convincingly.

    But what does it all mean? Start with the obvious: this is a weapons system that packs a wallop. The Woody Island deployment spells danger for hostile air forces that venture within a sizable bubble above and around Woody Island. The HQ-9’s maximum range of 200 km, or about 124 miles, traces the outer reaches of that bubble, which encloses some 48,300 square miles of sea area — about the same land area as my former home state of Mississippi — centered on the island. That empowers HQ-9s to bring down aircraft anywhere over the Paracels group — including over Triton Island, where USS Curtis Wilbur staged a “freedom-of-navigation” cruise last month. These lethal “birds” could make short work of the helicopters operated by surface ships like Curtis Wilbur.

    That should give American skippers pause before defying Chinese challenges to freedom of the seas — one of which is the freedom to operate aircraft outside coastal states’ territorial seas, namely anywhere more than 12 nautical miles offshore. The HQ-9 is a Frankenmissile. A close cousin to Russia’s S-300 — a missile that keeps American and allied aviators awake nights — it allegedly incorporates technology from U.S. Army Patriot SAMs as well. China reportedly obtained a Patriot from Israel following the first Gulf War, studied it, and used its findings to improve the HQ-9 during the research and development phase. China is the Borg of military affairs: it strives constantly to add foreigners’ technological distinctiveness to its own, making PLA weaponry more lethal than it otherwise might be.

    But it would be a mistake to interpret Woody Island’s HQ-9s as a standalone weapons system. Sure, 16 missiles constitutes a potent deterrent to Southeast Asian air forces, which field small numbers of tactical aircraft — many of which are technologically backward. The Vietnam People’s Air Force, to name one such force, boasts an impressive-looking force of 217 Russian-built MiG and Sukhoi fighter aircraft. Of those, however, fully 144 are MiG-21s — Soviet planes that first took to the skies in 1955. These antique warbirds would make easy pickings for HQ-9s. Or, Chinese air defenses could take down a sizable fraction of Vietnam’s more modern, 73-plane inventory should Hanoi hurl them into the fray. The prospect of losing one-fifth of Vietnam’s air force in an afternoon could certainly deter.

    It doesn’t stop there, however. PLA commanders’ goal is to erect an increasingly dense thicket of defenses against ships, aircraft, and missiles spanning areas China considers its own. Anti-ship missiles stationed along the mainland’s shorelines can already strike throughout the South China Sea. Land-based, missile-armed aircraft are part of the mix, as are missile-armed surface craft and submarines. So is China’s nascent force of aircraft carriers.h Missile batteries deployed to all Chinese-held islands — naturally occurring, like Woody Island, or manufactured, like Mischief Reef — would integrate with such weaponry, creating overlapping fields of fire. In other words, ships or planes entering China’s no-go zone would face multiple threats along multiple axes. Commanders would think twice before hazarding precious assets and crews in Southeast Asia — and might abjure the attempt altogether.

    If so, Beijing will have upheld its territorial claims without fighting. By making believers out of prospective foes, it will have vindicated its indisputable sovereignty in the South China Sea. Sovereignty, at its most basic, means physical control of territory and airspace within certain lines inscribed on the map. Physical supremacy in the South China Sea would let Beijing dictate the rules whereby ships and aircraft pass through regional waters and skies. It would also let Beijing reserve the right to close Southeast Asian sea routes to foreign shipping should it see the need — making one of the world’s great nautical thoroughfares a no-go zone.

    So enough with the ###-for-tat debate over who militarized what in Southeast Asia. Navies are the guardians of freedom of the sea. When someone lodges unlawful claims, navies flout those claims to keep them from calcifying into international practice and, perhaps, into customary international law. China, therefore, can always claim America was the first to militarize the South China Sea controversy — a controversy that China itself created by challenging freedom of the seas. If Beijing won this point, it’s a trivial one. It’s doubtful anyone will buy the narrative that a hegemonic United States is bullying poor little China.

    And on and on the Clausewitzian dialogue by displays of force will go. To reply to China’s HQ-9 challenge, the United States and its Asian allies must demonstrate that they can exercise maritime freedoms despite the worst the PLA can throw at them. They should also ponder how to prove that they could take down Chinese missile sites should the worst come. If they do that, they may make believers of the Chinese and other observers—and bolster their likelihood of deterring future Chinese misconduct.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-25-2016 at 03:49 PM. Reason: Fix quote and add source link as new member. Merged into main thread.

  12. #32
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    Default China's economic success: over-stated?

    From an IISS Strategic Comment, it starts with:
    Amid the troubles visible in China’s economy, statistical problems and anomalies are rising to the surface, bringing into doubt some bedrock economic indicators. Arguably the most important of these is China’s vaunted trade surplus. A large gap between payments recorded by China’s banks and the value of imports and exports reported by Customs has led several economists to wonder publicly how to measure China’s trade volumes. It is already well established that hundreds of billions of dollars in ‘hot money’ flows through the trade account. It is also well known that banks do not make payments in trade with reference to General Administration of Customs (GAC) documentation, so there is good reason for the numbers to differ. Balance of payments data shows that, in net terms, money is leaving China despite the reported surplus. But few have systematically questioned or examined the trade surplus.
    It ends with:
    Only with last summer’s stock-market debacle did scepticism about the Chinese economy and financial picture become predominant. But even that failed to prepare the world for a full reassessment of China’s economy. Large trade discrepancies are one troubling aspect of the uncertainty surrounding China. They make a currency crisis, once unthinkable, look more likely. In turn, such a crisis could reveal that much of what investors and analysts thought they knew about China’s economy – from its export power to its foreign-exchange reserves, from the health of its banks to the size of its GDP – has been substantially overstated.
    Link, full text is behind a pay-wall:http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/...a-economy-99a6
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 05-09-2016 at 04:27 PM. Reason: 18,991v
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  13. #33
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    Default China Will Probably Implode

    China Will Probably Implode - The National Interest

  14. #34
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by CloseDanger View Post
    China Will Probably Implode - The National Interest


    Not like that hasn't happened before...
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
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  15. #35
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Into Africa: China’s global security shift

    A 16 pgs report by ECFR which:
    argues that, after decades of hiding behind the rhetoric of non-interference, China has undergone a paradigm shift in its thinking. This is spurred by two motives: the wish to build its reputation as a good global citizen, and the wish to protect its interests on the continent – both investments and the lives of the over 1 million Chinese nationals based there.
    Link to paper:http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/Into_Afric...t_PDF_1135.pdf
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-15-2016 at 09:52 PM. Reason: 22,153v
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    Default China’s Place in Central Asia

    Raffaello Pantucci (RUSI) watches Central Asia closely and opens a series of five articles on http://www.eurasianet.org.

    Opens with:
    EurasiaNet is running a series this week looking at the state of relations between China and the five nations of former Soviet Central Asia. China expert Raffaello Pantucci opens the series with a survey of China’s role in the region. China’s rise in Central Asia marks one of the most consequential changes in regional geopolitics since the turn of the century.
    Link:http://www.eurasianet.org/node/79306
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    A British academic SME on China has this short comment; which opens with:
    Donald Trump’s rise to the presidency was followed with amazement and apprehension across East Asia. China in particular was on tenterhooks – and now it needs to figure out what to do.
    Link:https://theconversation.com/china-grapples-with-the-mixed-blessing-of-a-trump-victory-68625?

    Can the USA co-operate with PRC once President Trump is in office? Trade is more than export/import and buying US Treasury debt.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 11-19-2016 at 02:52 PM. Reason: 34,397v
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    Default Protecting Chinese citizens abroad

    A 2015 IISS Adelphi paper 'China's Strong Arm: Protecting Citizens and Assets Abroad', which ably explains the many changes in this policy area.

    From the IISS website:
    China has long adhered to a principle of ‘non-interference’ in other states’ affairs. However, as more of its companies have been investing in projects overseas, and millions of its nationals are travelling abroad, Beijing is finding itself progressively involved in other countries – through the need to protect these interests and citizens.
    Link:http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/...trong-arm-63b7

    Fascinating to learn that China does not keep a register of its citizens working and living abroad. It may after the evacuation from Libya, it expected just under 4k and found 36k.

    Plus pointing out that the PLA infantry battalion in South Sudan, it's first combat assignment, was deployed in Juba a long way from where a state-owned company operates oilfields.

    There is a standard chapter on Pakistan and the Mekong River piracy protection development, but Africa is the main focus. Who knew an estimated 200k Chinese are in Angola?

    There is an old thread, closed in 2011, on China protecting its investments abroad.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-15-2016 at 10:23 PM. Reason: 36,330v
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    Default China's Navy seizes American underwater drone in South China Sea

    Reuters: http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN14526J

    A Chinese Navy warship has seized an underwater drone deployed by an American oceanographic vessel in international waters in the South China Sea, triggering a formal demarche from the United States and a demand for its return, a U.S. defense official told Reuters on Friday.

    The incident -- the first of its kind in recent memory -- took place on Dec. 15 northwest of Subic Bay just as the USNS Bowditch, an oceanographic survey ship, was about to retrieve the unmanned, underwater vehicle (UUV), the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

  20. #40
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    Default China's space weapons

    Via Defence in Depth an insight into China in space and ends with the "up's and down's":
    The growing Chinese orbital behemoth, like America’s celestial leviathan, is a fount of economic and technological momentum, as well as a source of simultaneous vulnerability and resilience depending on the space systems relied upon and threated. Although China has continued its space weapons development on a steady course in the past ten years, it has been hard at work launching many more targets of its own into outer space.
    Link:https://defenceindepth.co/2017/01/11...asants-plough/
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