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Old 05-19-2017   #301
Azor
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Default RE: Trump and the Syrian Civil War

Firstly, the fears that Trump would cut off support for the FSA (the CIAís Operation Timber Sycamore) and give Russia a freer hand in Syria have not materialized. Russian intervention has continued at the same level as during the Obama Administration, and certainly Trump is much more willing to confront Iran and its auxiliaries than his predecessor. Even were the CIA to withdraw support for the FSA, the lack of involvement and oversight may then permit unfettered support from Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

Secondly, Trump has attacked Assad for using Sarin and this week attacked a pro-Assad convoy to protect a FSA unit. No such U.S. activity against pro-Assad forces occurred from 2011 through 2016. Thus far, Trumpís election is a net benefit to the FSA when compared to Obamaís tenure. It is no doubt less than ideal for the FSA, but it is a major improvement.

Thirdly, Trump inherited U.S. cooperation with the PKK from his predecessor. As Aaron Stein at the Atlantic Council recently noted:

Quote:
This [Turkish] plan was never feasible. The Turkish feeder program has not generated enough forces to take Raqqa, while Ankaraís proposed contribution was viewed with skepticism inside the coalition.

In reality, the Trump administration had the option to siege and take Raqqa with more U.S. conventional forces, or to undertake a much broader effort to train and equip a rival force from Syrian Arabs. Either of these two options could have helped to address Turkish concerns.

However, it would have slowed the campaign against the Islamic State and would have gone against the advice of the commanders on the ground. The slowing of the campaign would also contradict Trumpís own campaign pledge to speed up the war against ISIS. Therefore, the outcome was all but predetermined, with the SDF serving as the only capable ground force currently ready to fight ISIL in an urban environment. All that was needed was to grant the authorities to arm the YPG.
Overall, we are witnessing the same policies with some positive incremental changes. I say incremental because I did not find the punitive strike in response to the Sarin attack to be a major deviation. Had Assad used Sarin in 2016 or with a Clinton Administration, he would have probably been punished in a similar fashion.

There will never be a "war to end all wars". Using the PKK as a tool to defeat Daesh as a conventional force will not end the Sunni Arab insurgency, and will likely inflame Kurdish conflicts with Turkey, Iran and Syria. Whether Syria continues to be under minority Alawi rule or whether it comes under majority Sunni Arab rule, the Syrian government and the breakaway region of Rojava will come to blows. Whereas no-fly, no-drive and Turkish approval created a de facto independent Kurdish statelet in northern Iraq, a repetition will not be possible in northern Syria.
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Old 05-20-2017   #302
OUTLAW 09
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Azor View Post
Firstly, the fears that Trump would cut off support for the FSA (the CIAís Operation Timber Sycamore) and give Russia a freer hand in Syria have not materialized. Russian intervention has continued at the same level as during the Obama Administration, and certainly Trump is much more willing to confront Iran and its auxiliaries than his predecessor. Even were the CIA to withdraw support for the FSA, the lack of involvement and oversight may then permit unfettered support from Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

Secondly, Trump has attacked Assad for using Sarin and this week attacked a pro-Assad convoy to protect a FSA unit. No such U.S. activity against pro-Assad forces occurred from 2011 through 2016. Thus far, Trumpís election is a net benefit to the FSA when compared to Obamaís tenure. It is no doubt less than ideal for the FSA, but it is a major improvement.

Thirdly, Trump inherited U.S. cooperation with the PKK from his predecessor. As Aaron Stein at the Atlantic Council recently noted:



Overall, we are witnessing the same policies with some positive incremental changes. I say incremental because I did not find the punitive strike in response to the Sarin attack to be a major deviation. Had Assad used Sarin in 2016 or with a Clinton Administration, he would have probably been punished in a similar fashion.

There will never be a "war to end all wars". Using the PKK as a tool to defeat Daesh as a conventional force will not end the Sunni Arab insurgency, and will likely inflame Kurdish conflicts with Turkey, Iran and Syria. Whether Syria continues to be under minority Alawi rule or whether it comes under majority Sunni Arab rule, the Syrian government and the breakaway region of Rojava will come to blows. Whereas no-fly, no-drive and Turkish approval created a de facto independent Kurdish statelet in northern Iraq, a repetition will not be possible in northern Syria.
Azor you still do not get it....

1. US air strike was not to protect FSA but to protect SF units the 5th and UK SAS...

2. Verified by FSA themselves with their comments that they had been ordered to move out of the crossing point....still not confirmed though

3. That TLAM was for nothing but show and that was it...had no impact on any of the ME players did not impress Iran nor did this air strike impress them

Both TLAM and air strikes served to provide Russia and Iran just more propaganda....

4. Trump could have broken with Obama but did not as he has absolutely no plan on how to defeat IS.

REMEMBER it was Trump himself that stated he would have within 60 days a "plan to defeat IS"..we are way pass 100 days and have you seen this "plan"....MIA......

5. By fully titling to the PKK Trump has ensured a decade of more fighting between Turkey and PKK

So all on all..what I have constantly bashed Obama for on his failed strategy because anything the FSA did that placed his Iran Deal in trouble he deflected back onto the Syrians...NOW we can continue to bash Trump FOR CONTINUING what basically was a pro Iranian strategy.....

That should have been apparent from the two postings here from former Obama types....BUT you seemed to miss those postings..

The Iran Deal was everything...and the Syrians were collateral damage...
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Old 05-20-2017   #303
OUTLAW 09
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Azor...remember that Steel Dossier that you bashed me about....and now is it in fact impacting anything the US is doing as a FP????

The New York Times‏
Verifizierter Account
#
@nytimes

What President Trump told Russian officials about firing James Comey
http://nyti.ms/2pTMns7#

Quote:
"I just fired the head of the FBI. He was crazy, a real nut job. I faced great pressure because of Russia. That's taken off."

President Trump 10 May 2017 Oval Office

Russian collusion...criminal investigation and now WH coverup.....

Quote:
The Washington Post reported Friday afternoon that federal investigators were looking at a senior White House official as a “significant person of interest.” The article did not identify the official, though it noted that the person was “someone close to the president.”
A person of interest is someone law enforcement identifies as relevant to an investigation but who has not been charged or arrested.
And The New York Times reported that Trump had told visiting Russian officials in the Oval Office that firing Comey had taken pressure off the Russia probe.


The Independent‏
Verifizierter Account
#
@Independent
Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner 'person of interest in Russia investigation'
http://ind.pn/2qGulqu

Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-20-2017 at 07:37 AM.
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Old 05-20-2017   #304
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Azor View Post
McGurk was an official of the previous administration...
So...??

Just confirms how badly the US has messed up for over 8 years....and somehow overlooked that the PKK was a Communist terrorist group since 1978...
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Old 05-20-2017   #305
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King Salman met Donald Trump on the tarmac. He didn't do the same for Obama last year.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/preside...ts-1495263979#

BTW...that 110B USDs arms deal could be viewed as "buying US actions against Iran" could it not????
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Old 05-20-2017   #306
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Russia delivering oil/gas industry equipment to Syria:
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Old 05-20-2017   #307
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Azor...so there was no "blowback" on the Trump massive security failure????

REPORT: Israeli intelligence officials were shouting at U.S. counterparts in meetings over Trump's SNAFU
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/19/...a-iran-syria/#
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Old 05-20-2017   #308
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Syrian rebels begin to leave last opposition-held Homs district
http://reut.rs/2q3uV0e
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Old 05-20-2017   #309
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S. #Syria: pro-Assad led by Druze fighters & SSNP took most E. #Suweida & #Jordan border from #FSA, entering #Dam. prov & heading to Al-Tanf

Syria: Pro-#Assad forces have captured #Zelaf area from #FSA and advancing along the #Jordan|ian border.

Also notice: @CJTFOIR did neither support the MOC #FSA in liberating the area from #ISIS nor did it help moderates when #Assad ran over them

For 2 years,#Assad gave a sh** about #ISIS,ruling the S-E of the country.
Just after the #FSA liberated those areas,the dictator stepped in.

AND the US does what again ....???? Nothing really.....

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Old 05-20-2017   #310
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Tartous: 50.000+ young Alawite men are hiding in #Tartous Province. #Assad regime conducts house-to-house raids to find recruits
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Old 05-20-2017   #311
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Russia: it is clear that the US can strike at will in Syria
http://uawire.org/news/russia-it-is-...will-in-syria#
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Old 05-20-2017   #312
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S. #Syria: another #Iran|ian-backed #Iraq|i militia (Harakat Al-Abdal) from "Islamic Resistance" part of pro-Assad offensive towards Al-Tanf
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Old 05-20-2017   #313
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Russian Hemimem base official telegram account posted a request from an anonymous to use FOAB thermobaric bomb in Jobar, Damascus -@eldorar1
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Old 05-20-2017   #314
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
Tartous: 50.000+ young Alawite men are hiding in #Tartous Province. #Assad regime conducts house-to-house raids to find recruits
Assad regime deserter from #Tartous who is hiding in the mountains: " I can't choose death. For whom shall I die? And for what?Ē
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Old 05-20-2017   #315
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Pro-#Assad forces have confirmed captured #Zuluf Reservoir and Dam from #FSA.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=32...1544&z=14&m=b#

Aleppo: #FSA has captured 3 #Assad forces near #Al_Bab today.

Syria: There will be a giant besieged rebel pocket in the Southern #Syria|n Desert if the #FSA doesn't stop pro-#Assad forces or retreat.
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Old 05-21-2017   #316
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Azor..now tell me the Trump WH has a solid Syrian plan...I see nothing but failures...actually now worse than Obama....


Pro-#Assad tweeps celebrate insufficient @CJTFOIR response to Iranian-led forces advance on US/UK forces.
PS: Interesting Nazi comparison...
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Old 05-21-2017   #317
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Azor...more along this same line....

Confirms earlier reports of raising Russian flag over positions captured by pro Assad forces from FSA east Suwaida
https://twitter.com/Ibra_Joudeh/stat...6510117695488#

Iran|ian-backed #Iraq|i militia Harakat Al-Abdal involvement for Al-Tanf battle w/ slogan "defend faith & holies, avengers of Zeinab".

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Old 05-21-2017   #318
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Since the introduction of the "De-Escalation Zones" in #Syria,pro-#Assad forces have captured more than 2000 km^2 of Syrian opposition land.

Talking about none-ISIS opposition.
Not a single km^2 of these areas in #EastGhouta, #RifDimashq, #Suwayda & #Homs province was held by HTS.
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Old 05-21-2017   #319
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News
16 people killed, 40 injured in suspected (pro-)#ISIS car bomb attack on #AhrarAlSham HQ in #Idlib province.
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Old 05-21-2017   #320
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Saudi may spend $350 billion on high end weapons, but if they don't focus on SOF/asymmetric threats, Iran will still run circles around them
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