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Thread: Turkey mainly, Iraq and the Kurds (2006-2014)

  1. #41
    Council Member SteveMetz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wm View Post
    Revoking our support to the Turks worked real well when they invaded Cyprus in 1974.
    By the way, I don't think we have anything like the Habur Gate or a twisty little road from the Mediterranean to the Turkey-Iraq border that we can close to the Turks, or do we?

    To tell you the truth, this could be a good thing. An external threat might focus the attention of Iraqis and encourage them to move toward resolution of their internal problems.

  2. #42
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Unlikely. Given the remarkably divergent views of the different Iraqi communities towards the various heavily-armed foreigners (Americans, Iranians, foreign Arabs) already in their country, I think the addition of Turks will probably only lead to further splits as factions jockey for advantage.

    The Turks have been playing the game in the north for as long as we have and already have dancing partners. One wonders who else will sign up for Turkish funds if Ankara comes in strength.

  3. #43
    Council Member wm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveMetz View Post
    To tell you the truth, this could be a good thing. An external threat might focus the attention of Iraqis and encourage them to move toward resolution of their internal problems.
    Again, I suggest a review of the Cyprus situation. A Turkish threat in Northern Iraq would probably be welcomed by factions in the south as a way of eliminating the Kurdish problem--a lot of Iraqis have about as little use for Kurds as the Turks and many Iranians do.

    Your post suggests that there is a strong sense of Iraqi national sentiment. If this were the case, which I seriously doubt, then we would not have the sort of problems that we currently see in country. What the Iraqis most lack, IMHO, is a sense of a national identity. If they had one, I believe the Iraqis would close their borders to outside threats and band together to solve their internal security problems.

    I submit that the presuppositions about Iraqis unifying in the face of a common foe as expressed in the above quotation reflect the same type of thinking that led to the adoption of the US small footprint approach in Iraq. It was mistakenly presumed that the Iraqi populace would pull together for the greater good of Iraq once we helped them get rid of that small group of bad guys (Saddam and his Ba'athists) who were holding the majority down.

    Iraq represents a conflict, like that found in 18th and 19th Century US (and still to some extent today), between the adherents of states' rights and the supporters of Federalism. In Iraq, however, the states' rights (or tribal rights to be more correct) seem to have the upper hand across the country.

    Most other countries in the world have not had the same level of success in "melting pot" experiments that America had in the 19th and 20th Centuries.
    Of course many of those other countries also did not choose to engage in the experiment on their own--it was forced down their throats by other countries, much as we seem bent on doing in Iraq today.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by wm View Post
    Again, I suggest a review of the Cyprus situation. A Turkish threat in Northern Iraq would probably be welcomed by factions in the south as a way of eliminating the Kurdish problem--a lot of Iraqis have about as little use for Kurds as the Turks and many Iranians do....
    Pretty close to the truth. The Turks having a go at Iraqi Kurdistan yet again will not bother the Shi'a and Sunni Arab Iraqi factions, let alone distract them much from their own internecine fighting. However, it will serve to further fragment what (pathetically) little cohesiveness exists within the Iraqi central government, as Kurdish representatives make a (futile) attempt to obtain support from their Arab partners along the lines that Steve mentions.

    FYI, there is a lot of good discussion on and around this subject in the Kurdistan IO E-Mail thread.

  5. #45
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    Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Focus, 10 Jul 07:

    Firefight in Iraq Exposes Presence of Turkish Al-Qaeda Operatives
    The northward moves by Kurdish rebels into Turkey in recent weeks and their bombings of Turkish military and civilian targets have been reported extensively, as have the consequent threats by the Turkish military to move into Iraq to bring about a halt to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) attacks. A firefight with U.S. forces in Iraq on June 23, however, has shed light on the hitherto lesser known southward flow of foreign fighters out of Turkey into Iraq and the role of Turkish al-Qaeda in overseeing that movement....

  6. #46
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Default Bush's Turkish Gamble

    Bush's Turkish Gamble - Robert D. Novak op-ed, Washington Post, 30 July.
    The morass in Iraq and deepening difficulties in Afghanistan have not deterred the Bush administration from taking on a dangerous and questionable new secret operation. High-level U.S. officials are working with their Turkish counterparts on a joint military operation to suppress Kurdish guerrillas and capture their leaders. Through covert activity, their goal is to forestall Turkey from invading Iraq.

    While detailed operational plans are necessarily concealed, the broad outlines have been presented to select members of Congress as required by law. U.S. Special Forces are to work with the Turkish army to suppress the Kurds' guerrilla campaign. The Bush administration is trying to prevent another front from opening in Iraq, which would have disastrous consequences. But this gamble risks major exposure and failure ...

  7. #47
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Default Turkey to warn Iraq on Rebel Sanctuaries

    Turkey to warn Iraq on Rebel Sanctuaries - Washington Post, 6 Aug.

    Turkish leaders this week will give visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki what Turkish military commanders and analysts said could be a final warning to act against anti-Turkey Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq -- or to stand by while Turkish forces go after the rebels themselves, risking a new front in Iraq's war.

    Leaders of Turkey's governing Justice and Development Party appear to be in agreement with Turkey's generals that the time has come to move against the Kurdistan Workers' Party, known by its Kurdish initials, PKK, in its bases in the mountains of northern Iraq, former generals and a military expert close to the Turkish military's general staff said.

    At least 30,000 people have been killed since the Kurdish rebels launched a campaign in 1984 for an independent Kurdish homeland in eastern Turkey. Clashes and bombs this week killed 14 Turkish soldiers and rebel fighters. The rebels also kidnapped eight residents of a Kurdish village in the east.

    Turkey accuses Iraq's Kurds -- who have built a nearly autonomous Kurdish state in northern Iraq under protection of the U.S. military since the early 1990s -- of giving the Kurdish rebels a haven and allowing them free passage back and forth across the Iraqi border into Turkey.

    "The Turkish people want the government to do something, and in this case, the Turkish military and government now coincide," retired Turkish Maj. Gen. Armagan Kuloglu said in a telephone interview from the Turkish capital of Ankara ...

    ...

    Baran and some others expect U.S. forces to join in if Turkey does act against the rebels in northern Iraq. The scenario most often cited is an operation involving U.S. and Turkish special forces already in northern Iraq.

    "I do believe that the Americans . . . are probably getting ready to do something jointly with Turkey, but they really don't want the Turks to go on their own," Baran said ...

  8. #48
    Council Member redbullets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wm View Post
    Is anyone looking into the possibility that these latest PKK activities might really be the work of poseurs?
    In the past there have been allegations that military units of neighboring countries posed as PKK and attacked civilians in SW Turkey. I worked in Kurdistan for a couple of years in the mid-1990's, and found at least one such allegation credible.

    Cheers,

    Joe

  9. #49
    Council Member redbullets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firestaller View Post
    they probably want to 'secede' a section of Turkey and join their brethrens in Kurdistan.
    Though I think the leaders of their brethren in Kurdistan are most concerned with keeping the business lamp lit. There are huge amounts of cross-border trade, and lots of capital owned by KDP and PUK leadership is sitting in/heading to off-shore banks. Cost of land in Erbil is now too expensive for most folks living in the northern Virginia area , so none of those benefiting want to see this messed up.

    Cheers,

    Joe

  10. #50
    Council Member redbullets's Avatar
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    Default Annual Spring Invasion

    During my mid-1990's tenure in Iraqi Kurdistan, we called this the Annual Spring Invasion. 35-40,000 troops would enter and set up camp. Turkish General Staff and Parliament would make noise about protecting Turkey, and the Kurds would make noise about the destabilizing effects of the Turkish military activity.

    There were a lot of local and expatriate folks working the area back then who believed that, among other things, with the fall of the Wall, the Turkish military needed a new boogey man to justify 1/5th of the GNP going into the military-industrial complex (lots of O-6's driving MB 500 series). There was plenty of credible information about KDP and/or PUK forces fighting alongside the Turkish tourists against the PKK.

    My senior program officer, an Iraqi Kurd with more than a decade working these issues on the international scene, says this ain't nothing but a thing. No one wants to screw up the revenue streams heading in both directions.

    Cheers,

    Joe

  11. #51
    Council Member redbullets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jedburgh View Post
    That incident was a disaster for the Kurds, resulting in the pullout of all USAID OFDA/DART teams from northern Iraq along with the multi-national MCC - with a comcomitant loss of NGO assistance to the rebuilding of Iraqi Kurdistan. Significant lessons learned on all sides.
    In addition, OFDA was looking for a good reason to end this mission - it had evolved, in some folks' opinions, into a development scenario as opposed to a protracted crisis, and there was a good deal of institutional angst at USAID over the fact that DoD funds were being employed - too much "military taint" I suppose for the crew back there.

    By coincidence, I'm sitting in front of the computer tonight wearing my OFDA DART NIRAQ t-shirt that I've managed to keep in one piece all these years.

    Cheers,
    Joe

    Just because you haven't been hit yet does NOT mean you're doing it right.

    "In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist." President Dwight D. Eisenhower

  12. #52
    Council Member redbullets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strickland View Post
    Don't the Kurds provide sanctuary and support to the MEK, PKK/Kongra Gel, and Ansar al Sunnah? I believe all three of these groups are on the US FTO list. If we are truly serious about the GWOT, how about we ask the Kurds to hand these folks over? Even better, in an effort to gain increased influence with the Turks and Iranians, how about we turn them over to those nations for prosecution?

    BTW - didnt Barazani assist Saddam against Talabani during the 90s?
    President Talabani's PUK lost 30 or 40 Pesh'merga to an Ansar al Islam (Ansar al Sunnah precursor, more or less) in 2001 or 2002, quite a few of them beheaded. Also during that period there was a nearly successful attempt on Barham Salih's life in which his personal secretary/relative, and several body guards were killed.

    Following the attack on the Pesh'merga there was quite a bit of talk among the Kurdish expatriate community about an offer made by Barzani to load up the lads and come on down to assist the PUK in wiping out Ansar al Islam. If memory serves, the PUK had been conducting some form of demobilization then, and didn't have as many Pesh under arms as they might have liked.

    I was involved in some work around Halabja from the late-1990's through the beginning of the current conflict, and met with the Mayor and several doctors from the area a number of times during those years. Everyone wanted the Ansar al Islam knuckleheads eliminated. When I visited Halabja in 2004 and 2005 I was struck by how far behind the rest of Kurdistan the region lags, due in large part to the mini-Caliphate that operated there for several years.

    Cheers,
    Joe

    Just because you haven't been hit yet does NOT mean you're doing it right.

    "In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist." President Dwight D. Eisenhower

  13. #53
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Iranians attack Kurdish rebels in Iraq - McClatchy Newspapers, 23 Aug.

    Iranian soldiers crossed into Iraq on Thursday and attacked several small villages in the northeastern Kurdish region, local officials said.

    U.S. military spokesman Lt. Col. Christopher Garver said he couldn't confirm the attacks, but five Kurdish officials said that troops had infiltrated Iraqi territory and fired on villages.

    The Iranian military regularly exchanges artillery and rocket fire with Kurdish rebels who've taken refuge across the border, but Iraqi Kurdish officials worried that Iran's willingness to cross the border raises the possibility of a broader confrontation that would draw the Iraqi government and U.S. forces into an unwanted showdown.

    One Kurdish legislator said that if reports of the attacks were true, then Iraq must "stand firmly" against future Iranian encroachments.

    Details of the incursion were sparse. Abdul Wahid Gwany, the mayor of Choman, a village 250 miles north of Baghdad, said Iranian troops crossed the border in 10 places and traveled approximately three miles into the mountainous Iraqi region, bombing rural villages in the process. He didn't say how many Iranian troops were involved.

    Jamal Ahmed, the police chief of Benjawin, a village a little more than 200 miles north of Baghdad, said the attacks killed some residents.

    "We don't know the amount of casualties as the bombing was continuous and so severe," Ahmed said. Gwany said the attacks also killed many cattle and left villages and farms burned to the ground.

    Gen. Jabbar Yawr, a spokesman for the Kurdish militia, said Iranian troops have been lobbing artillery at Iraq from across the border since Aug. 16, though Thursday was the first time that Iranian troops crossed the border.

    He said that a statement issued by the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan, a branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party, which is also known as the PKK, claimed credit for the recent assassination of an Iranian intelligence official. Yawr said the Iranian raid was in retaliation ...

  14. #54
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    Default An Outline of Kurdish Islamist Groups in Iraq

    Jamestown Foundation, 17 Sep 07: An Outline of Kurdish Islamist Groups in Iraq
    A great number of Iraqi Kurdish Islamist groups, including militant Islamist movements, have emerged in the last 20 years. Despite the fact that politicized Islam never seemed to enjoy as much broad popularity in Iraqi Kurdistan as it has amongst some neighboring Arab populations, a number of small Kurdish Islamist groups keep multiplying, splintering and occasionally reuniting.

    This study pays particular attention to links between various Iraqi Kurdish Islamist movements, their history, their transformation or splintering into new organizations, and the role of the non-Kurdish Iraqi Muslim Brotherhood in spawning these movements in the fi rst place. A historical “map-tree” of the movements is presented in order to better understand various groups’ roots and their relationships with other Islamist movements in Iraq. In some cases, the support of outside states and foreign Islamist organizations appears crucial to explaining what success political Islam in Iraqi Kurdistan has enjoyed.

    Based on fi eldwork and personal interviews conducted in Iraq in 2003 and 2004, this study presents a signifi cant amount of never-before published details about these movements. The conclusion addresses possible strategies for containing radical Islamist movements, and the dilemmas inherent in constructing such strategies.....

  15. #55
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    The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 18 Sep 07:

    Iran Moves Against PJAK in Iraq
    The Iranian Revolutionary Guard's most recent campaign of shelling Kurdish villages in northern Iraq, which allegedly targeted members of the outlawed Kurdish opposition group the Party for Freedom and Life in Kurdistan (PJAK), eventually culminated with Iranian troops entering Iraqi Kurdish territory on August 23. According to Iraqi TV Channel al- Sharqiya on August 24, the most recent bombardments by Revolutionary Guard commandos (Pasdaran) led to the evacuation of more than 10,000 Kurds from their villages in the Pishar, Penjwin, Khurmal, Hajj Umaran and Qandil mountain range areas in the Iraqi governorates of Arbil and Sulaymaniyah.

    The Pasdaran's hunt for PJAK fighters and activists comes at a critical juncture in Iran's foreign relations and domestic politics. The Iranian government is increasingly isolated internationally over the nuclear issue as well as faces widespread domestic dissent over economic mismanagement, increased political repression and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's foreign policy track record. Far from fulfilling his election promises of ending the country's crony capitalist structures and corruption and thus actually catering to those who had voted for him, Ahmadinejad maintained the economic and political status quo of the country and brought the Pasdaran closer to the government than any other president has done before him. Far from only representing an elite military unit, the Pasdaran now constitute a significant political and economic power in Iran, with an estimated control of more than $12 billion in business, construction and energy ventures.

    While sporadic violence in the Kurdish-populated provinces of Iran is nothing new, the Pasdaran's most recent incursion into Iraqi territory, which according to a Kurdish official destroyed several villages, demonstrates the top brass and elite's willingness to defend the integrity of Iran's central government at all costs....

  16. #56
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    Default Iran and (Iraqi) Kurdistan

    A possible indicator of potential Iranian leverage over the KRG (and especially the PUK):

    SULEIMANIYYA: Iran's closure of its frontier with Iraq is costing the autonomous Kurdish region $1 million a day, a government minister said on Wednesday, as trucks remained stuck at the border.

    ...

    Iran said on Monday it was closing its frontier with Iraq in protest at the detention last week of Iranian national Mahmudi Farhadi by US troops.
    Full AFP story here. Reuters account here.

  17. #57
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Turkey says its troops can cross Iraq border - NYTIMES, 10 Oct.

    Turkey took a step toward cross-border military action in Iraq today, as a council of the country’s top political and military leaders issued a statement today allowing troops to cross to eliminate separatist Kurdish rebel camps in the mountainous northern region.

    Turkey’s move toward military action comes in the face of strong opposition by the United States, which is anxious to maintain peace in that area, one of the rare regions of stability in conflict-torn Iraq.

    All government offices and institutions have been ordered “to take all economic and political measures, including cross-border operations when necessary, in order to end the existence of the terror organization in a neighboring country,” said the statement, which was released by the Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s office ...

  18. #58
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Turkey strikes suspected Kurdish rebel positions - AP, 11 Oct.

    Turkish warplanes and helicopter gunships attacked suspected positions of Kurdish rebels near Iraq on Wednesday, a possible prelude to a cross-border operation that would be likely to raise tensions with Washington.

    The military offensive also reportedly included shelling of suspected Turkish Kurd guerrilla hide-outs in northern Iraq, which is predominantly Kurdish. U.S. officials are preoccupied with efforts to stabilize other areas of Iraq and oppose Turkish intervention in the relatively peaceful north. The White House issued a warning Wednesday against such an incursion "at this time."

    Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters that a motion authorizing a cross-border operation was being prepared and might reach parliament today. An opposition nationalist party said it would support the motion ...
    Also:

    Turkey plans long stay in northern Iraq - Today's Zaman, 11 Oct.

    The government will send a motion to Parliament next week requesting authorization for a cross-border operation into northern Iraq to deal with a terrorist threat based there, with a possible incursion expected to involve up to 15,000 troops, government and security sources said.

    If it takes place as planned, this will be the largest-scale cross-border operation on Iraqi soil since 1997, when 50,000 soldiers entered northern Iraq. Sources said the military measures on the Iraqi side of the border will not be confined to a one-time operation carried out by a massive number of troops, as authorities are also planning to boost the existing Turkish military presence in northern Iraq to increase the Turkish military's ability to deal with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) threat over the border. A 150-member Turkish military base in the Bamerni area near Dohuk in northern Iraq will be reinforced with professionally trained personnel so that operations against PKK bases in the region can be conducted on a more regular basis.
    Last edited by tequila; 10-11-2007 at 10:35 AM.

  19. #59
    Council Member wm's Avatar
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    Why would the Turkiye Cumhuriyeti agree to a United States request to stay out of northern Iraq? The US, in the person of its House Foreign Affairs committee, has chosen to ignore Turkey's request not to proceed with a legislative action regarding 1915's Armenian events. Seems like a quid pro quo to me.

  20. #60
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Much more likely a direct response to the killing of 15 Turkish soldiers last week.

    The House resolution will make any U.S. request to Turkey much more expensive politically.

    The PKK waves the red flag. This will not be unnoticed in Turkey.

    Kurdish separatist rebels said on Friday they were crossing back into Turkey to target politicians and police after Ankara said it was preparing to attack them in the mountains of northern Iraq.

    A statement by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) could further increase domestic pressure on Ankara to launch a major offensive that Washington fears could destabilize a relatively peaceful area of Iraq and have ramifications through the region.

    "The guerrillas are not moving to the south (northern Iraq); on the contrary they are moving to ... places in the north," the PKK said in a statement published on Firat news agency.

    The PKK statement said its fighters planned to carry out attacks against Turkey's ruling AK Party and the main opposition CHP unless certain conditions were met as well as the police force. It did not elaborate ...

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