I agree with this. I honestly don't think that AQ or any related movement has the capability to create any sort of multi-national entity. We confuse talk with capability in this case. And as they spin deeper into their tactics and get further away from their strategy, they will become less capable of this sort of thing.Originally Posted by SteveMetz
"On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War
And I do too. The very history of Islam, the shift of the Calphate between Baghdad and Damsacus and ultimately Istanbul (as the Sultan), the fragmentation of both Sunni and Shia into sects and now the various groupings argue hard against the image or even the idea of a unified Calphate capable of ruling inside a country versus across the borders of many. In many ways the Islamic extremist view represented by AQ is the Sunni extremist version of Pan-Arabist thought, which died a quick death thn 1967. A parallel movement--and one confused by Westterners and Muslims alike--is the strengthening of Shia control in the region, at least temporarily. I add that latter clause because tha strengthening is very tentative. Syria is controlled by a Shia minority; a Sunni backlash is always a threat. Lebanon is always a toss up; Syrian influence there is not a always a given.
This is not to say that AQ is not a threat. It is not however a monolith.
best
Tom
Agreed. I'm not even sure AQ can retain monolith
status; they might but the hold is shaky. I've always considered Hezbollah more potentially dangerous.
Obviously the loose networking between the various groups of Jihadis etc. has some potential but a Caliphate isn't one of them. My only real concern is that in their pursuit of that unattainable goal they do something really stupid on a massive scale and get Europe aroused.
The mood there may be broadly pacifistic and 'go along - get along' but if the French and Germans really get fired up that will have very significant reverbrations...
P.S.
Enjoy Kansas in late June...
Europe aroused? Let me mull that concept over. I guess if they get REALLY aroused they might be inspired to write a stern letter to someone.status; they might but the hold is shaky. I've always considered Hezbollah more potentially dangerous.
Obviously the loose networking between the various groups of Jihadis etc. has some potential but a Caliphate isn't one of them. My only real concern is that in their pursuit of that unattainable goal they do something really stupid on a massive scale and get Europe aroused.
The mood there may be broadly pacifistic and 'go along - get along' but if the French and Germans really get fired up that will have very significant reverbrations...
P.S.
Enjoy Kansas in late June...
Heh, I admit that today it's an extremely novel
concept but history says they are perfectly capable of playing harsh and dirty.
Do recall I said a really big and really dumb event. Conversations with serving folks from some of those nations indicate that that almost, not quite, a desire that something like that might occur (as a way of a resurgence and a problem eliminator) is present as a rarely and discretely discussed attitude. We all know Armed forces in Democracies are a little more right leaning than their societal norm -- but not much more...
Hopefully, I'm just mumbling in my dotage.
An allied topic; is it just me or do the Europeans do a better job of countering the media efforts of the bad guys than we have been able to do thus far? Your warning of the media battle from some years ago didn't click in establishment minds and we're paying a heavy price for that while they seem to be able to deflect or better respond...
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