Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post

This warning should not suggest that it is not an achievable goal to develop an IW wargaming. It is simply a caution to let you know that it is not easy.

As I posted earlier, there a numerous smart PH-D level operational research and social scientist working on this same topic. They temper there efforts with Sec Gates warning, and they continually ask advice from guys in the field who have been doing this for a while.

From what I've observed, there are two methodologies that they are testing to see if they can wargame IW. Below are a brief description and links to further research.

Take some time to research these theories and see if they help. Again, good luck.
Both theories are valid, but fall victim to "Black Swans" pretty easily, but that doesn't disqualify their utility.

However, have played a lot of strategy games in the past, especially ones like the "Civilization" series and derivatives therof (space conquest, etc). Almost all feature a negotiation/alliance model for trade and security. However, I have yet to find one that looks like real-world relations for war decisions, even though most are based in rational choice theory. People aren't that mathematical/logical in the real world, and coding of the social/environmental/internal political constraints seems to be the missing factor - but the hardest to quantify.