intelligence analysis, overcoming bias and learning

[marct]

For example, there was no method for us to challenge the bizarre analysis of a battalion S-2 (so-called battalion senior intelligence analyst) who proclaimed that the main problem in our province was "criminal activity" and not the Taliban. We figured that since this conclusion wasn't based on any actual reporting, she must have some kind of cognitive bias against, say, reality.

No, no, no! It's not a bias against reality, it's a definition of the Taliban as criminals !

Now, it would have been a bias against reality if she had defined the Taliban as Smurfs... then again, maybe not !

[IntelTrooper]

No, no, no! It's not a bias against reality, it's a definition of the Taliban as criminals !

Curses, now I'm the one with the bias...

Now, it would have been a bias against reality if she had defined the Taliban as Smurfs... then again, maybe not !

I thought I recognized the guy in those briefings! Mullah Papa Smurf AKA Abu Smurfette...