Syria in 2016 (July-September)

[OUTLAW 09]

Charles Lister ‏@Charles_Lister
Unconfirmed:
Nusra will propose breaking ties with AQ in exchange for formation of “Jabhat Fateh al-Sham” coalition w. opposition groups.

*IF* this happens today, don't expect a clean split/break. There's opposition to leaving AQ. Many unresolved issues

3 separate sources say a statement is expected to be released tomorrow, on JN’s Al-Manara al-Baydha and/or Al Jazeera Arabic.

Suggestion seems to be that no decision has been made, but that Jolani will offer a proposition to opposition groups to accept/reject.

If rumors are true that JN *has* agreed to break from AQ, then opposition is being lured into trap; could be v. damaging to revolution

Syria’s opposition has always demanded JN leave AQ, but US/EU/Russia unlikely [rightly] to ever change their assessment of the group.
JN/AQ scenarios:
1: JN splits from AQ
2: 30% of JN splits from AQ (splinter)
3: JN proposes split from AQ + opposition merger
4: No change

Lots of possible new names floating around, incl:
- Harakat/Jabhat al-Islamiya al-Souriya
- Jabhat Fateh al-Sham
- Al-Nusra al-Shamiya

Some suggest JN’s proposal could be national; other claim it will be provincial.
A few claim an #Idlib Emirate is also on the cards.

Charles Lister
‏@Charles_Lister
Whatever happens (if anything), I can’t see it being “clean.”

There’s no choice now but to wait [until tomorrow?] for some clarity.


IMHO...as many here have stated the non action by the US to fully support the anti Assad forces and now their proposal to worok with the Russians is Actually driving the moderate anti Assad forces into a joint venture with JaN (AQ)......and based on the continued heavy Russian air strikes on civilians who blames them.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Really recommend the reading of this article as he knows Syria well......

Kyle W. Orton ‏@KyleWOrton
New The beheading of the child soldier and al-Qaeda gaining ground: "A Rebel Crime and Western Lessons in Syria"
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/...sons-in-syria/

Especially the parts on western lessons needs to be read....

[OUTLAW 09]

Charles Lister ‏@Charles_Lister
Unconfirmed:
Nusra will propose breaking ties with AQ in exchange for formation of “Jabhat Fateh al-Sham” coalition w. opposition groups.

*IF* this happens today, don't expect a clean split/break. There's opposition to leaving AQ. Many unresolved issues

3 separate sources say a statement is expected to be released tomorrow, on JN’s Al-Manara al-Baydha and/or Al Jazeera Arabic.

Suggestion seems to be that no decision has been made, but that Jolani will offer a proposition to opposition groups to accept/reject.

If rumors are true that JN *has* agreed to break from AQ, then opposition is being lured into trap; could be v. damaging to revolution

Syria’s opposition has always demanded JN leave AQ, but US/EU/Russia unlikely [rightly] to ever change their assessment of the group.
JN/AQ scenarios:
1: JN splits from AQ
2: 30% of JN splits from AQ (splinter)
3: JN proposes split from AQ + opposition merger
4: No change

Lots of possible new names floating around, incl:
- Harakat/Jabhat al-Islamiya al-Souriya
- Jabhat Fateh al-Sham
- Al-Nusra al-Shamiya

Some suggest JN’s proposal could be national; other claim it will be provincial.
A few claim an #Idlib Emirate is also on the cards.

Charles Lister
‏@Charles_Lister
Whatever happens (if anything), I can’t see it being “clean.”

There’s no choice now but to wait [until tomorrow?] for some clarity.


IMHO...as many here have stated the non action by the US to fully support the anti Assad forces and now their proposal to worok with the Russians is Actually driving the moderate anti Assad forces into a joint venture with JaN (AQ)......and based on the continued heavy Russian air strikes on civilians who blames them.....

Kyle W. Orton ‏@KyleWOrton
Believe it when seen that Jabhat al-Nusra will even go through pretence of "breaking" with al-Qaeda, but multiple sources say it's so.

Although a reliable source is carrying the split info as well.....

Kyle W. Orton ‏@KyleWOrton
Channel's a relatively reliable purveyor of al-Qaeda news. Time will tell.
Reference @aflustaat

Kyle W. Orton
‏@KyleWOrton
*If* Jabhat al-Nusra "breaks" from al-Qaeda, this is the reason why: an ambush for us and the Syrian opposition.

[OUTLAW 09]

Also worth reading as it has more information on the possible split between AQ and JaN....

Jabhat al-Nusra: Breaking ties with al-Qaeda?
http://bit.ly/29YoTFM v @ajaltamimi

When it comes to the Syrian insurgency, one of the biggest dilemmas facing its backers has been the role of al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra. Despite its affiliations, the group has been widely viewed by the insurgency as an important military partner in many (but by no means all) of the zones of conflict since it first came on the scene publicly in 2012. Jabhat al-Nusra's fortunes have varied over time- for instance, it lost all of its assets in the oil-rich eastern province of Deir az-Zor to the Islamic State by summer 2014- but it has survived notions of a total collapse. Today, its main base is in the northwestern province of Idlib, and with the breakdown of the U.S.-Russia brokered 'cessation of hostilities' this year, Jabhat al-Nusra has played a leading role in fighting in Latakia and south Aleppo countryside, spearheading alongside Salafi group Ahrar al-Sham the coalition known as Jaysh al-Fatah, which was first set up in 2015 and led the routing of the Assad regime from Idlib province.

Previous attempts have been made by the insurgency's main foreign backers- particularly Qatar, which has mediated in hostage crises- to persuade Jabhat al-Nusra to break ties with al-Qaeda, but so far they have all been rebuffed, with leader Abu Muhammad al-Jowlani remaining a steadfast loyalist to al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. This should not be surprising, as Jowlani owes his survival as the group leader to Zawahiri's mediation in his favour in 2013 when Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who helped set up Jabhat al-Nusra, tried to subsume Jowlani and the group when he unilaterally announced the expansion of what was then Islamic State of Iraq into Syria to become the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham.

The latest talk of Jabhat al-Nusra breaking ties with al-Qaeda seems to be somewhat more intense this time. Though the move might be ostensibly welcomed and supported by foreign backers of the insurgency, it may actually reflect an al-Qaeda endorsed strategy of embedding Jabhat al-Nusra more deeply in the Syrian insurgency while preserving the long-term commitment to establishing an Islamic emirate in Syria as one of many stepping-stones to reviving the Caliphate. In origin, the latest round of discussions surrounding this issue partly comes from Jabhat al-Nusra dissenters who subsequently fell-out with the main leadership, such as Abu Mariyah al-Qahtani and Abu Saleh al-Hamawi, who, it must be emphasized, do not disagree with the eventual goals but believe that at times the group has not been pragmatic enough on the ground, despite Jabhat al-Nusra's more general reputation for pragmatism in comparison with the hardline approach of the Islamic State towards rival groups. The name of Qahtani, who has also long been critical of obsessions with banners and group identity and warned against ghuluw ('extremism'), came up earlier this month in the founding statement (see below) of a new group of jihadi scholars in Syria called 'Tajammu Ahl al-'Ilm bish-Sham' (Assembly of Al-Sham Scholars), alongside Saudi-born Abdullah al-Muheisseni, who is a leading cleric in the Jaysh al-Fatah coalition.

Continued.....

[OUTLAW 09]

New Syrian Army captures several positions southwest of Al Bukamal and northwest of Tanf
http://all4syria.info/Archive/330735

[OUTLAW 09]

Kyle W. Orton ‏@KyleWOrton
Believe it when seen that Jabhat al-Nusra will even go through pretence of "breaking" with al-Qaeda, but multiple sources say it's so.

Although a reliable source is carrying the split info as well.....

Kyle W. Orton ‏@KyleWOrton
Channel's a relatively reliable purveyor of al-Qaeda news. Time will tell.
Reference @aflustaat

Kyle W. Orton
‏@KyleWOrton
*If* Jabhat al-Nusra "breaks" from al-Qaeda, this is the reason why: an ambush for us and the Syrian opposition.

"People in life/death situations make cold decisions,...U.S. didn’t make it easy to side against al-Qaeda."

[OUTLAW 09]

Will be buried but shouldn't be. Hardly an AQ flunky the mullahs are hosting:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/29/wo...B232E6&gwt=pay …

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia|n. Targeted today nursing home in #Talbisah near #Homs. injured a number of them seriously. In addition damage in building

Rebels thwarted an attempt by pro-Regime forces to progress in #Daraya & destroyed a minesweeper, #Damascus.

AND Iran the so called Obama "moderate" is not intent on creating a "greater Iran in Syria".......
Iraqi Shi'a militia 'Assad Allah al-Ghalib' dispatches additional forces to "raise the banner of Ali" across Syria

[OUTLAW 09]

Iranian army official: #France, #Saudi to blame for possible terror attacks in #Iran
http://mme.cm/MHBW00

Two pro-regime soldiers allegedly killed in #Hasakeh by Kurdish forces: Qamishli-based outlet

[OUTLAW 09]

Latakia: #Syria|n rebels destroying 23 mm technical & killing some pro-#Assad forces with TOW in Northern #Latakia.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian non linear warfare that is being practice by Russia in both Syrian and eastern Ukraine has two cornerstones that must be successful in order to succeed in achieving their three core geopolitical goals;
1. damage and discredit EU
2. damage and discredit NATO
3. completely disconnect the US from Europe and the ME

Those two cornerstones are;
1. info warfare
2. cyber warfare

Here is the initial report on the Russian GRU/FSB hack of the Democratic National Committee...from the company that carried out the cyber investigation.....

I am posting this simply to inform just how effective the Russians have become in the cyber warfare front.....

https://www.crowdstrike.com/blog/bea...ation%20Report

Bears in the Midst: Intrusion into the Democratic National Committee
June 15, 2016
Dmitri Alperovitch

CrowdStrike stands fully by its analysis and findings identifying two separate Russian intelligence-affiliated adversaries present in the DNC network in May 2016. On June 15, 2016 a blog post to a WordPress site authored by an individual using the moniker Guccifer 2.0 claiming credit for breaching the Democratic National Committee. This blog post presents documents alleged to have originated from the DNC.

Whether or not this posting is part of a Russian Intelligence disinformation campaign, we are exploring the documents’ authenticity and origin. Regardless, these claims do nothing to lessen our findings relating to the Russian government’s involvement, portions of which we have documented for the public and the greater security community.

There is rarely a dull day at CrowdStrike where we are not detecting or responding to a breach at a company somewhere around the globe. In all of these cases, we operate under strict confidentiality rules with our customers and cannot reveal publicly any information about these attacks. But on rare occasions, a customer decides to go public with information about their incident and give us permission to share our knowledge of the adversary tradecraft with the broader community and help protect even those who do not happen to be our customers. This story is about one of those cases.

CrowdStrike Services Inc., our Incident Response group, was called by the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the formal governing body for the US Democratic Party, to respond to a suspected breach. We deployed our IR team and technology and immediately identified two sophisticated adversaries on the network – COZY BEAR and FANCY BEAR. We’ve had lots of experience with both of these actors attempting to target our customers in the past and know them well. In fact, our team considers them some of the best adversaries out of all the numerous nation-state, criminal and hacktivist/terrorist groups we encounter on a daily basis. Their tradecraft is superb, operational security second to none and the extensive usage of ‘living-off-the-land’ techniques enables them to easily bypass many security solutions they encounter. In particular, we identified advanced methods consistent with nation-state level capabilities including deliberate targeting and ‘access management’ tradecraft – both groups were constantly going back into the environment to change out their implants, modify persistent methods, move to new Command & Control channels and perform other tasks to try to stay ahead of being detected. Both adversaries engage in extensive political and economic espionage for the benefit of the government of the Russian Federation and are believed to be closely linked to the Russian government’s powerful and highly capable intelligence services.

COZY BEAR (also referred to in some industry reports as CozyDuke or APT 29) is the adversary group that last year successfully infiltrated the unclassified networks of the White House, State Department, and US Joint Chiefs of Staff. In addition to the US government, they have targeted organizations across the Defense, Energy, Extractive, Financial, Insurance, Legal, Manufacturing Media, Think Tanks, Pharmaceutical, Research and Technology industries, along with Universities. Victims have also been observed in Western Europe, Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, South Korea, Turkey and Central Asian countries. COZY BEAR’s preferred intrusion method is a broadly targeted spearphish campaign that typically includes web links to a malicious dropper. Once executed on the machine, the code will deliver one of a number of sophisticated Remote Access Tools (RATs), including AdobeARM, ATI-Agent, and MiniDionis. On many occasions, both the dropper and the payload will contain a range of techniques to ensure the sample is not being analyzed on a virtual machine, using a debugger, or located within a sandbox. They have extensive checks for the various security software that is installed on the system and their specific configurations. When specific versions are discovered that may cause issues for the RAT, it promptly exits. These actions demonstrate a well-resourced adversary with a thorough implant-testing regime that is highly attuned to slight configuration issues that may result in their detection, and which would cause them to deploy a different tool instead. The implants are highly configurable via encrypted configuration files, which allow the adversary to customize various components, including C2 servers, the list of initial tasks to carry out, persistence mechanisms, encryption keys and others. An HTTP protocol with encrypted payload is used for the Command & Control communication.

FANCY BEAR (also known as Sofacy or APT 28) is a separate Russian-based threat actor, which has been active since mid 2000s, and has been responsible for targeted intrusion campaigns against the Aerospace, Defense, Energy, Government and Media sectors. Their victims have been identified in the United States, Western Europe, Brazil, Canada, China, Georgia, Iran, Japan, Malaysia and South Korea. Extensive targeting of defense ministries and other military victims has been observed, the profile of which closely mirrors the strategic interests of the Russian government, and may indicate affiliation with Главное Разведывательное Управление (Main Intelligence Department) or GRU, Russia’s premier military intelligence service. This adversary has a wide range of implants at their disposal, which have been developed over the course of many years and include Sofacy, X-Agent, X-Tunnel, WinIDS, Foozer and DownRange droppers, and even malware for Linux, OSX, IOS, Android and Windows Phones. This group is known for its technique of registering domains that closely resemble domains of legitimate organizations they plan to target. Afterwards, they establish phishing sites on these domains that spoof the look and feel of the victim’s web-based email services in order to steal their credentials. FANCY BEAR has also been linked publicly to intrusions into the German Bundestag and France’s TV5 Monde TV station in April 2015.

At DNC, COZY BEAR intrusion has been identified going back to summer of 2015, while FANCY BEAR separately breached the network in April 2016. We have identified no collaboration between the two actors, or even an awareness of one by the other. Instead, we observed the two Russian espionage groups compromise the same systems and engage separately in the theft of identical credentials. While you would virtually never see Western intelligence agencies going after the same target without de-confliction for fear of compromising each other’s operations, in Russia this is not an uncommon scenario. “Putin’s Hydra: Inside Russia’s Intelligence Services”, a recent paper from European Council on Foreign Relations, does an excellent job outlining the highly adversarial relationship between Russia’s main intelligence services – Федеральная Служба Безопасности (FSB), the primary domestic intelligence agency but one with also significant external collection and ‘active measures’ remit, Служба Внешней Разведки (SVR), the primary foreign intelligence agency, and the aforementioned GRU. Not only do they have overlapping areas of responsibility, but also rarely share intelligence and even occasionally steal sources from each other and compromise operations. Thus, it is not surprising to see them engage in intrusions against the same victim, even when it may be a waste of resources and lead to the discovery and potential compromise of mutual operations.

Continued.....

"I’m anything but a Hillary fan [but] I'm far more troubled by naked interference of the Kremlin in US democracy"
http://observer.com/2016/07/wikileak...in-on-clinton/ …

"The most damaging aspect to the DNC leak is disinformation—that is, false information hidden among facts"

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian non linear warfare that is being practice by Russia in both Syrian and eastern Ukraine has two cornerstones that must be successful in order to succeed in achieving their three core geopolitical goals;
1. damage and discredit EU
2. damage and discredit NATO
3. completely disconnect the US from Europe and the ME

Those two cornerstones are;
1. info warfare
2. cyber warfare

Here is the initial report on the Russian GRU/FSB hack of the Democratic National Committee...from the company that carried out the cyber investigation.....

I am posting this simply to inform just how effective the Russians have become in the cyber warfare front.....

https://www.crowdstrike.com/blog/bea...ation%20Report

Bears in the Midst: Intrusion into the Democratic National Committee
June 15, 2016
Dmitri Alperovitch

CrowdStrike stands fully by its analysis and findings identifying two separate Russian intelligence-affiliated adversaries present in the DNC network in May 2016. On June 15, 2016 a blog post to a WordPress site authored by an individual using the moniker Guccifer 2.0 claiming credit for breaching the Democratic National Committee. This blog post presents documents alleged to have originated from the DNC.



"I’m anything but a Hillary fan [but] I'm far more troubled by naked interference of the Kremlin in US democracy"
http://observer.com/2016/07/wikileak...in-on-clinton/ …

"The most damaging aspect to the DNC leak is disinformation—that is, false information hidden among facts"

Astonishing how US MSM media is playing DNC emails as the scandal--rather than Russian interference.

The news - the real news - in the DNC leak is the information about which US candidate Putin favors and why. That is nuclear-grade news.

AND yet they forget the serious on going war in eastern Ukraine and the Russian/Assad killing of over 100 civilians every day in Syria...

Interesting Russian response using The Moscow Times.....

Why "this focus on Russian active measures is the most pernicious of red herrings":
https://moscowonthames.wordpress.com...tive-measures/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba parades in Syria

N. #Latakia: Second Coastal Division blew up w/ #TOW a technical w/ 23 mm gun, killing crew.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OW60fLAfh8 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Manbij Unconfirmed reports that SDF offer for ISIS to withdraw from city has been accepted.

This is interesting as YPG in the past has often worked together with IS...meaning IS would withdraw from positions close to YPG and then YPG would immediately occupy them....and using that game YPG has taken over more Arab Sunni territory...

So will this be declared a victory over IS...especially if they withdraw with their fighters and weapons....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia is now dropping fleshettes on civilians.....

The White Helmets @SyriaCivilDef
.@marywareham please see attached picture of fleshettes from Al Sukkary in Aleppo city today. What status under IHL?

Hell in the besieged #Douma after #Russia terrorists cluster bombs attack moments ago

Irbin last night following Assad airstrikes on a market #Damascus
https://youtu.be/99hEiiERICs
https://youtu.be/SBy9xJPdWYU

Horrific photos coming out of Atarib in rural #Aleppo now, 25+ killed & 50+ wounded in at least 25 #Russia|n airstrikes

Multiple Russian/Assad airstrikes with regular & cluster munitions target Atarib in west rural #Aleppo

4 dead inc. 3 children & over 40 wounded in regime airstrikes on a local market in Irbin, eastern Ghouta, #Damascus
https://youtu.be/NOInDartqFg

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia'n airstrikes destroyed store of #UN World Food Programm in #Aleppo #Syria - several aid workers killed

Remember when the US was interested in making sure humanitarian aid made it to the 780,000 besieged Sunni's.....

Appears there is no further interest and YET Kerry talks about the next Geneva meetings....

[OUTLAW 09]

Battle between rebels and #ISIS for #KafrGhan.
Looks like rebels have a little help.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ7eaopWMpk …

Bombing of hospitals is unacceptable in German.....from the German FM...
Auswärtiges Amt ‏@AuswaertigesAmt
Die Angriffe auf Krankenhäuser in #Aleppo verurteilen wir auf das Schärfste. Bombardierung medizinischer Einrichtungen ist inakzeptabel.

Heavy #US air strikes on central #Manbij city.
Hard to believe they hit no civilians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6U6quLWuhsY …

Huraytan this morning - still under merciless #Assad/#Putin air strikes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uOb15JRWRU …

The #Assad air force bombed the Syrian capital today
#Jobar quarter hit hard
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3cXRiHm7dU …

Same procedure as every day ...
First responders evacuate children from the rubble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onbbPBjogJk …

Air strikes like the ones today ALWAYS ONLY TARGET CIVILIANS in #Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEViB9tjDpA …

[OUTLAW 09]

Building where food provided by @UN is stored, also destroyed. Airstrikes still targeting all areas randomly.#Aleppo

Reports of huge fires at Nayrab airbase in #Aleppo, some reports claiming airstrikes targeted the AB following clashes between regime forces

Manbij SDF advance towards the city centre from the north. In south there are clashes near automated bakery & Sheikh Aqil cemetery. (ANHA)

Syria explosion rocked Kafarasousah #Damascus,smoke rising from the area with rumors saying it's from Intelligence HQ

Syria #Damascus ambulances carrying injured aftermath explosion targeted the Iranian School

Syria Regime+#Russia airstrikes including Cluster, Thermobaric, Barrel Bombs on #Aleppo neighborhoods & hospitals.

Air strikes on #KafrHamra in #Aleppo this morning.
Probably also #Russian ones.

BreakingFootage
#ClusterBomb attacks on #Hayyan, N-W of #Aleppo, this morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAD8q826h3o …

Of course, it was a #RUSSIAN Su-34 that dropped these bombs & other traditionals on #Hayyan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ol4lssalsFo …

Footage
An #Assad air force MiG-23 just bombed #Hama & #Homs prov.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5bp6-tQhbE …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3YxpNk-kpk …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C97httOR5O4 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Foreign Affairs
✔ @ForeignAffairs Cyberwarfare diminishes political violence by making it easier for states to engage in aggression without war. http://ow.ly/yFd6302B26K

That is the core principle behind Russian non linear warfare...

Russia is not #Europe's partner & not a partner of the US
Destabilisation is its only aim.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/25/us...ails.html?_r=1 …

Un.believable ...
Instead of condemning FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE ATTACKS ON THE UNITED STATES, Trump mocks the Democrats.

[OUTLAW 09]

Pro-#Assad forces are cutting the #Castillo road at a second location (around Layramoun roundabout).

Day16 of the total #Aleppo siege.
Rebels were/are unable to reopen the #Castello road.
EU/US foreign ministries accept the blockade.

From a proAssad commenter
BREAKING: #SAA #Tiger_Forces just captured the complex area in southwest #Castillo road.

KafrHamra today: Heavy #Assad/#Putin air strikes on civilians - as every day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JU1ix6Bucjg …

Heavy air strike on #Douma near #Damascus today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_SEQfaw1Pg …