Cuba (merged thread)

[Strickland]

There is a very good article in last Foreign Affairs about the failure of US foreign policy in Cuba, and the way ahead. It makes a comparison between failed US efforts at de-Baathification in Iraq, and any similar attempt at de-Fidelista purges that the US may wish to see post-Fidel. If this were to happen in Cuba, you would essentially be eliminating the entire white-collar work force of the country. It also points out the extraordinary influence ex-pats or ex-pat communities can have on the US government. While Ahmed Chalabi springs to mind, he fails in comparison with the influence the 1.5 million cuban ex-pat community has on federal policy.

[Jedburgh]

There is a very good article in last Foreign Affairs about the failure of US foreign policy in Cuba, and the way ahead....

Here's the link: Fidel's Final Victory, Foreign Affairs, Jan-Feb 07

...Even as Cuba-watchers speculate about how much longer the ailing Fidel will survive, the post-Fidel transition is already well under way. Power has been successfully transferred to a new set of leaders, whose priority is to preserve the system while permitting only very gradual reform. Cubans have not revolted, and their national identity remains tied to the defense of the homeland against U.S. attacks on its sovereignty. As the post-Fidel regime responds to pent-up demands for more democratic participation and economic opportunity, Cuba will undoubtedly change -- but the pace and nature of that change will be mostly imperceptible to the naked American eye....

[AdamG]

US Homeland Security tests response to possible mass exodus from Cuba
from those wonderfully unbiased folks at AFP
Mar 07 3:42 PM US/Eastern

An exodus from Cuba combined with a virus outbreak put US authorities on full alert Wednesday in a simulation meant to tested the response to a mass migration from the communist-run island.

As part of the Homeland Security exercise off Florida, Coast Guard units took to the seas and military planes flew overhead as fictitious Cubans tried to reach US shores.

The maneuver aimed to test the response to a migration crisis similar to the one in which 125,000 Cubans landed on US shores in the so-called Mariel boatlift in 1980.

Some US officials have speculated there could be a massive migration from Cuba when ailing President Fidel Castro, 80, dies, but officers involved in the exercise declined to discuss that specific scenario.

"I'm not going to get into that," said US Coast Guard (USCG) Rear-Admiral David Kunkel. "This is driven because we have to be prepared," he said at a news conference launching the two-day exercise.

"While this exercise focuses on massive migrations from Cuba ... it could be any Caribbean nation," he said. "However, Cuba is something for which we have to be prepared."

In Wednesday's simulation, 2,000 fictitious Cubans took to the seas in a bid to reach the US Coast, and thousands more people left from Florida to pick up friends and relatives from the Caribbean island.

After about 100 Cubans made it to shore, officials found that a contagious virus had spread among the migrants.

More than 300 officials from some 50 agencies participated in the exercise, which officials said was particularly relevant in south Florida.

In the 1970s, more than 50,000 Haitians fleeing the dictatorship of Francois Duvalier and later his son Jean Claude Duvalier headed to the United States.

In 1980, Castro opened the Cuban port of Mariel, allowing anyone who wanted to leave the country by boat to do so. Over five months, 125,000 people had left the island, some on fragile rafts, others picked up by relatives living in Florida.

A similar migration involving 36,000 Cubans again took place 14 years later, once more placing a huge strain on Miami and other parts of south Florida as authorities tried to cope with the humanitarian crisis.

On August 1, then Florida governor Jeb Bush, a brother of the US president, asked authorities to ready for another such exodus. He made the request one day after Castro announced he had undergone surgery and provisionally handed power to his younger brother Raul.

Kunkel said that at the first sign such a movement could take place, he would seek assistance from the Miami-based military Southern Command.

The aim, he said would be to intercept 95 percent of the migrants and return them to the country they left.

Kunkel insisted there would be no repeat of the Mariel crisis.

"Now we have a plan," he said.

He said that the focus would be to return the migrants to their home countries, but did not rule out using the Guantanamo Bay US military enclave in Cuba to house some of them. In the 1980s and 1990s, the navy base had housed thousands of Cuban and Haitian would-be migrants.


Recent media reports indicated the Pentagon was planning to build facilities on the base to house migrants interdicted at sea.

[pcmfr]

We could stem a lot of the upheaval during the eventual regime change if we dropped economic sanctions that have long outlived their usefulness. The best way to establish future stability in Cuba is to begin pumping US trade and investment dollars into the economy now.

[J Wolfsberger]

We've been hearing for decades that the end to the US trade embargo will solve all of Cuba's economic problems.

Since Cuba has had the entire rest of the world to trade with, the leftist excuse that it's the big, bad United States' fault that their economy sucks has always struck me as ... self-serving, adolescent crap.

Which leads to my concern. The lousy economy is not and never has been the fault of the US; it's their own, for following a deranged economic system. If we were to lift Helms-Burton, and absent a dramatic shift to rule of law and a market based economy, I can't convince myself that there will be any significant change. The Cubans, however, will be expecting huge changes.

Then what?

(Incidentally, given the current craze for ethanol based fuels, Cuba could easily be a major producer. Why aren't they already?)

[Watcher In The Middle]

...the opening gambit in a brand new game. Think of it as "Post Castro Era For $100 Billion" (give or take a few).

Originally posted by J Wolfsberger:

The lousy economy is not and never has been the fault of the US; it's their own, for following a deranged economic system. If we were to lift Helms-Burton, and absent a dramatic shift to rule of law and a market based economy, I can't convince myself that there will be any significant change. The Cubans, however, will be expecting huge changes.

Then what?

(Incidentally, given the current craze for ethanol based fuels, Cuba could easily be a major producer. Why aren't they already?)

First off, let's get the ethanol issue off the table, because that's the easy one. Main reason is the high (and excessive) US tariffs against sugar cane ethanol imports. Substantial reason for tariffs: See Fanjul Brothers, FL. Much, but not all, is in the politics of sugar. The rest of the story has been the corn producers, but that might be changing, simply due to supply and demand issues for corn as a foodstock.

As an example, we (US) impose a $.54 cents per gal tax on ethanol imports. Here's the link to the details. The result is that ethanol imports just can't compete, even though making ethanol from sugar cane is much more cost efficient than making from corn.

Expect to see the most truly unbelievable bipartisan political coalitions come out over the whole issue of Helms-Burton.They're going to be players coming down on different sides of the issue (keep/modify/repeal), and talking about having folks showing up on different sides. Be a show in itself - Ah, the sweet smell of $$$$ & influence by the boatload.

Crazy prediction time: To DeeCee land & environs, Cuba will become the next Iraq. I don't mean in military terms, but in controversy terms. But the players on both sides are just going to be wild. Might take 6 months to a year, but it's going to be fun.

Even on his freaking deathbed, Fidel can still pull off a stunt like this one. Got to hand it to that old buzzard - he still knows how to pull off an exit.

[Watcher In The Middle]

Cuba's Generation Gap
By BRIAN LATELL, Dated 03.01.2008

After waiting his turn for nearly 50 years, Raul Castro traded in his military uniform for a tailored suit and became Cuba's new president on Feb. 24. His brief inaugural address was filled with obsequies to his ailing brother Fidel, along with promises to consult him about important decisions. But the reality is that 76-year-old Raul is now firmly in charge. Fidel's long reign is over.

There is even reason to believe the brothers' relationship had turned acrimonious, and that Fidel was forced into retirement. One indication: During his interregnum following Fidel's provisional cession of power in July, 2006, Raul never benefited from public words of encouragement or support from his brother.

In over 90 ruminations issued by Fidel in the Cuban media over the last year, Raul was only mentioned once. In contrast, Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez was repeatedly glorified, once even referred to by Fidel as his "brother."

There's another indication that all is not well between the two. Upon taking command, Raul demonstrated his independence, naming an alter ego as first vice president of the governing council of state -- the same post, first in the line of succession, that Raul had occupied himself for decades.

Link to full commentary

Background; Brian Latell

There's been lots of rumors floating about for a while that Raul and Hugo Chavez aren't on the best of terms, and that neither one really trusts the other. Just something to think about.

[Jimbo]

The key is acting before Cuba hits the breaking point. If Raul can be engaged to liberalize the political process in exchange for sanction lifting, then there is an opportunity to prevent the catestrophe that is waiting in the wings. The Cuban situation is different from Iraq in that their is strong Cuban constituency in this country that is going to fight any reapproachment with Cuba as long as Fidel is alive. They will not be happy with Raul either. However, because Fidel is the "face" of Cuba, the Cuban expats might be more accepting of Raul in an interim role with a road to some type of democratic process. And then hopefully, cheap Cohibas!!!

[tequila]

The Miami Cubans make AIPAC look docile. We unfortunately will not see any rapprochement while they maintain their death grip on the swing vote in Florida politics.

[Jedburgh]

Military Review, Sep-Oct 07: Cuba After Fidel: What Future for US-Cuban Relations?

....What should the U.S. response be to a Fidel-less Cuba? Will the immediate change in leadership further normalization of relations and an end to the embargo? Will the U.S. continue its long-standing policy of indirect subversion and sabotage? Or will Fidel’s death and the transition to another leader provide the opportune climate for direct U.S. military intervention? Will the Cuban dissidents on and off the island be able to rally the Cuban people to overthrow a successor government? Should the United States have a role, either direct or indirect, in regime change in Cuba? Would an active U.S. role promote democracy in Cuba and the region? And what would be the immediate and long-term impact of U.S.-sponsored regime change on hemispheric cooperation and security?

How U.S. policymakers respond to these difficult questions will be critical to Cuba’s political and economic development and to a renewal of U.S. credibility in Latin America. But before we begin to consider what the appropriate U.S. security framework for a new Cuba policy should be, we must first put the current U.S. foreign policy towards Latin America into context.....