The Russian economy (catch all)

[OUTLAW 09]

Nobody knows what will happen in political terms in Russia if a recession or even a depression hits the economy. As you said in some instances you are puzzled just how bad things can go worse and worse. Perhaps Putin might endure all political attacks with the large power he has concentrated over the years and with the 'new' enemy at the gates as a culprit to target.

I don't doubt however that his bunch will gobble up their large share even if the whole cake shrinks, as long as they can...

Firn---have spent time going back over a large number of Interfax press releases concerning Russian economic development and their banks--if one looks at the math and compares their statements to western financial analyst statements one has a distinct feeling---their economic conditions currently are in serious straits---not even their own CB statements make financial math sense.

The oligarch's have been great at ripping off the system so what is the true foreign currency assets in 2014 of the CB? If 36B in foreign currency assets disappeared from the Ukraine overnight where did it go-which oligarch or Russian ministry got it?

Reason for asking---they are trying virtually every trick in the trade to make any form of money---check this article on Russia leaving the 1954 UN run TIR customs program which has been working great for Russia up to now---then suddenly they leave allowing them to take illegal border fees and additional customs also illegally---and the sum is not chum change.

By charging illegal fees it just drives up the Russian consumer pricing which in turn drives up inflation as well and it can on the long run even reduce consumer products as companies will refuse to ship products due to the extra hassle for the truckers.

So if they are having to do this just to make money the next question is why?

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2014/...ref=world&_r=0

[Stan]

... check this article on Russia leaving the 1954 UN run TIR customs program which has been working great for Russia up to now---then suddenly they leave allowing them to take illegal border fees and additional customs also illegally---and the sum is not chum change.

There is anywhere from five to 10 miles of parked rigs enroute to the Russian border. Sufficiently enough in delays that drivers are going to Belarus to cross the border. The Russian Border Guards are no longer taking bribes and inspecting each and every truck.

Sadly, as you point out, the only people that will suffer from spoiled goods will be Russians.

[OUTLAW 09]

Stan---Belarus is still in the TIR and can still cross into Russia with no issues---thus the trucker shifts to there.

What is interesting to me is the why----in the face of it being illegal why do they feel the need to come up with innovative ways to earn foreign currency when their own central bank is claiming of 500B in foreign currency assets.

[OUTLAW 09]

Firn---there was an article today in the FT and I have to dig up the link that stated the rampant and massive corruption in Russia has virtually destroyed the local economy and that Russian activities lately have been pointed towards gaining new territory in order to contribute to the Russia economy.

Might in fact be true if one looks at the cheap products the SU would get through trade deals with say members of the Warsaw Pact ie Poland ,Hungary or the GDR especially the GDR which was still paying WW2 reparations up to 1989.

This TASS press release caught my attention and goes to these cheap product deals----wonder just why Russia would go to the WTO with complaints against the Ukraine if they leave the CIS and or join the EU which they already are getting EU preferences through no customs barriers.

Unless the former Ukrainian government had some on the side quiet cheap priced grain and meat products that Russia was getting that they see now as being threatened by the Ukraine getting world market prices for say their grain and meat via the EU thus the potential complaint to the WTO about none compliance with signed trade deals.

But on the other hand Russia is cancelling a number of signed Gazprom and Black Sea Fleet deals so I am not sure what they are up too.

http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/726633

The last sentence is telling---we will invest in the agriculture base "if" we have "additional financing" with a supposedly 500B foreign currency reserve one would think they have "additional financing" unless the actual foreign currency reserves are much lower due to corruption.

"It does not affect agrarian programmes. I emphasize once more all of them will be preserved, and when there is additional financing, we will channel it into state support," Medvedev assured.