The Israeli Option in Strategy

[Rank amateur]

Steve,

The problem I have with this theory is its primary underlying assumption: That the "Israeli" option works in stand alone fashion. That is not the case and has not been the case since the October 1973 War. Israeli strategy, military, and economics are very much tied to the assumption that the US will back up their use of a thunderbolt strategy.

I see your strategy here as a twist on preemption theory, something else that has been borrowed in large degree from the Israelis.

Bad theory and worse results.

Tom

Yet we are completely and unabashedly supportive of Israeli strategy. To me that's the issue. How do we minimize the costs of wedding ourselves to an unsuccessful strategy that produces perpetual conflict?. (Now that resolving the conflict by spreading democracy on the Arab side has proven to be an unrealistic pipe dream.)

[Tom Odom]

Yet we are completely and unabashedly supportive of Israeli strategy. To me that's the issue. How do we minimize the costs of wedding ourselves to an unsuccessful strategy that produces perpetual conflict?. (Now that resolving the conflict by spreading democracy on the Arab side has proven to be an unrealistic pipe dream.)

That has been an overarching question that this Adminstration ignored altogether for the past 7 yearrs, partially at least in the belief that one could transpose democracy elswhere in the region and solve this issue. That is not to say that all problems in the region are monocausal. They certainly are not. But as you question above, I do not buy a strategy built on the assumption that we are hated so we will convert that hate into fear.

It is a negative image of the those who want everyone to love us. That does not work either because the world is much too complex.

Tom

[Rank amateur]

That has been an overarching question that this Adminstration ignored altogether for the past 7 yearrs, partially at least in the belief that one could transpose democracy elswhere in the region and solve this issue. That is not to say that all problems in the region are monocausal. They certainly are not. But as you question above, I do not buy a strategy built on the assumption that we are hated so we will convert that hate into fear.

It is a negative image of the those who want everyone to love us. That does not work either because the world is much too complex.

Tom

A) I do believe that the Middle East is different, so the issue really isn't a world wide one.

B) It isn't hate/love. It's who gets to live where: an issue that's been unresolved for at least 1,600 years, admitting that we're firmly on one side and admitting that we can't convince people that we aren't firmly on one side with spin or democracy or another else.

C) It doesn't have to be fear. But instead of pretending to be a honest broker, we behave like a police man. (A police man who's only real concern is protecting one piece of turf.) To combine you and Steve, "If Arab leader does X,Y and Z, lightening will strike. If not, we'll buy your oil."