The British In Iraq (merged thread)

[Red Rat]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/defence-chiefs-gag-iraq-report

The Iraq Inquiry is going to make interesting reading when it comes out. I believe General Brown is now retired and is due to give evidence again at the Iraq Inquiry which could prove enlightening.

As ever there is the issue of what the British did in Iraq and why, but also how they are going to learn from it. I had a commanding officer who maintained a 3 strikes rule:

F*** up once - fine, everyone makes mistakes, it's how we learn
F*** up twice (same mistake) - first warning; you should have learned last time.
F*** up again and you're fired!

Problem is that on an organisational level if you are not willing to admit and confront mistakes, to discuss them openly, then you are never going to learn.

[JMA]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/defence-chiefs-gag-iraq-report

The Iraq Inquiry is going to make interesting reading when it comes out. I believe General Brown is now retired and is due to give evidence again at the Iraq Inquiry which could prove enlightening.

As ever there is the issue of what the British did in Iraq and why, but also how they are going to learn from it. I had a commanding officer who maintained a 3 strikes rule:

F*** up once - fine, everyone makes mistakes, it's how we learn
F*** up twice (same mistake) - first warning; you should have learned last time.
F*** up again and you're fired!

Problem is that on an organisational level if you are not willing to admit and confront mistakes, to discuss them openly, then you are never going to learn.

Sadly warfare is an unforgiving environment. In many (if not most) cases where lives are lost there can be no second chance.

[William F. Owen]

For myself I really only have one pressing question.
Ulster has about 1.2 million in the 1970's people and at the height the emergency there were 27,000+ troops and 70+ plus helicopters.

Basra is a city of 3.5 million people. IIRC at most we had 4 BGs from Op Telic II onwards. How was 1 Brigade(+) ever going to be enough?

Here the MOD Stats:
Peak during Major Combat Operations (March/April 2003): 46,000 (including those stationed outside of Iraq in support of the operation)
At the end of May 2003: 18,000
At the end of May 2004: 8,600
At the end of May 2005: 8,500
At the end of May 2006: 7,200
At the end of May 2007: 5,500
At the end of May 2008: 4,100 (in southern Iraq)
At the end of May 2009: 4,100 (in southern Iraq)
At the end of Jan 2010: 150

[Red Rat]

For myself I really only have one pressing question.

Ulster has about 1.2 million in the 1970's people and at the height the emergency there were 27,000+ troops and 70+ plus helicopters.

Basra is a city of 3.5 million people. IIRC at most we had 4 BGs from Op Telic II onwards. How was 1 Brigade(+) ever going to be enough?

It wasn't. General Shirreff makes that clear.

Basra itself seemed to me to be the key issue... What I found when I arrived was effectively no security at all... There was a significant lack of troops on the ground.

I think that when I went out on my recce in May 2006, the single battalion commander responsible for a city of 1.3 million people told me that he could put no more then 13 half platoons or multiples on the ground, less then 200 soldiers on the ground, in a city of 1.3 million. You compare that with what I recall as a young platoon commander in West Belfast in the late 1970s when there was a brigade on the ground.

http://www.iraqinquiry.org.uk/General Shirreff.pdf

RR

[William F. Owen]

It wasn't. General Shirreff makes that clear.

Agreed. I head blokes saying this in 2004/5. Thus my question still stands. We all know we got it wrong. Why has never been explained.

[Chris jM]

Thus my question still stands. We all know we got it wrong. Why has never been explained.

Does the common perception of neo-con strategy explain the lack of boots-on-ground? As in, does:

a) the preponderance of technology and air-power, network-ified forces and the understanding of manoeuvrist doctrine amongst the military was such that they were so 'force multiplied' that they didn't need to obey conventional principles such as mass and concentration, and

b) the inevitable march of democracy ensuring a liberated Iraqi population would embrace the concept of a post-Saddam elected government,

explain the why?

I've heard this touted as the key reasons behind American mis-calculations and I wonder if this extended to the British High Command as well.

Or c), was this a hypothetical question casting a wry and cynical view upon the ability of the modern military to apply history and common sense to the contemporary environment, which I have subsequently proceeded to completely misconstrue?

[davidbfpo]

Why did the UK fail in southern Iraq, an area dominated by the city of Basra?

I shall leave alone the in country military strategy and tactics followed.

What puzzled me and I suspect others was why the UK stayed in Iraq after Tony Blair handed the Prime Minister's job to Gordon Brown in June 2007 (after winning an election in 2005), who we are told was never enthusiastic IIRC on the intervention. The war was unpopular across the UK, notably, but not exclusively in the traditional areas of Labour Party electoral support. Politically IMHO it would have made political sense - electorally - for Gordon Brown to exit quickly and this was - allegedly - discussed.

The UK in Southern Iraq sat astride the MSR from Kuwait and such announced exit would have alarmed the USA, being polite. The 'surge' was announced in January 2007 and major operations started in June 2007. Not a time for redeploying US forces to replace the UK.

The UK government decided it was necessary to stay, but without a commitment to allocate a level of resources to do more than the minimum and secure the MSR. The price of the 'special relationship' I suggest?

Note in June 2006 the UK decided to deploy for the first time to Helmand Province, which became unpopular at home too.

[Red Rat]

Agreed. I head blokes saying this in 2004/5. Thus my question still stands. We all know we got it wrong. Why has never been explained.

The British Operation in Basra was clearly an economy of force operation and was understood as such by all (although never explicitly stated). From a Coalition perspective I think that as long as the MSRs were secured it was recognised that Basra issues could be dealt with after the more pressing issues of baghdad and the Sunni Triangle.

In terms of domestic political context, no UK Government would have been able to increase troop numbers to the numbers necessary to secure Basra. The over-riding driver in UK government thinking since about 2005 appears to have been short term (domestic) political expediency, I have not seen a great deal of evidence of long term strategic planning, nor of a willingness to engage with detailed analysis of issues, especially of possible consequences (if this, then this).

I also suspect that Afghanistan was ramped up (in terms of British military contribution) to allow the UK to adopt a time based draw down policy in Iraq without embarrassing the UK or the US (the UK could state that it did not have the troops to do both Iraq and Afghanistan and so was focusing on Afghanistan - and in doing so was continuing to help the US which was focused in Iraq and did not want to increase numbers in Afghanistan).

It will be fascinating when the Iraq Inquiry publishes to see what the strategic thinking was and what the strategic decision making process was.

[William F. Owen]

The British Operation in Basra was clearly an economy of force operation and was understood as such by all (although never explicitly stated). From a Coalition perspective I think that as long as the MSRs were secured it was recognised that Basra issues could be dealt with after the more pressing issues of baghdad and the Sunni Triangle.

So why have forces inside Basra?

The issue of strategy is even more opaque. Clearly there was no strategy. I want to know what the policy was!