Slapout - You had asked, on a different thread, for me to comment on the Karpman triangle. It fell off my radar, and I apologize for that. i think you explained it accurately, though, in your original post. The triangle comes from a school of thought in psychiatry/psychology known as Transactional Analysis (TA). TA had some crossover appeal in the general public in the 70's with the books: "I'm OK, You're OK" and "Games People Play." It doesn't have much of a scientific foundation, but many of the concepts have some intuitive appeal. That's why they're sometimes used in business and law enforcement training. The drama triangle is one of them. As described by Karpman, a TA proponent, the triangle is a common gambit or interpersonal "script" in which people adopt and play out certain roles in their relationship/exchange with one another. In this case, the roles are persecuter, victim, and rescuer. The idea is that relationships among people or groups are constructed around these three roles, but the roles are dynamic - they shift over time. The victim may become the perscuter; the rescuer, the victim, etc. In that sense, it is a kind of systemic or cybernetic theory. Beyond that, I don't have much scientific insight to offer. I'm sure Karpman has more insights in drama triangle writings. I haven't thought about TA in quite some time, but the connection you make is interesting.
Randy Borum
Professor
College of Behavioral & Community Sciences
University of South Florida
Bio and Articles on SelectedWorks
Blog: Science of Global Security & Armed Conflict
Twitter: @ArmedConflict
In Biddle's defense, he does not talk about bringing the Afghan government up to Western standards, he speaks of "providing enough of an improvement in Afghan governance to enable the country to function without us." There's a difference.
I'm not sure it's possible to build a functioning national army without having a functioning national government to go with it. The two go together.
The Taliban are the problem, but no lasting solution to that problem can be achieved without functioning government (note: not necessarily Western standard, but functioning). The Taliban were the government. We removed them, creating a vacuum, and established a government to fill that vacuum. If we leave, and that government falls, there will be another vacuum... and who do we figure is going to fill it?
I'm not sure it's possible for us to eliminate the Taliban. At best we can suppress them to an extent that will allow the Afghan government to grow to a point where it can function. If the Afghan government can't do that, we're right back where we started. Nobody sane ever said it would be easy.
That's the narrative that we're marketing. There's a competing narrative out there: The US as attacker (with the Afghan government as an irrelevant US puppet), the Afghan people as victim, the Taliban as rescuer. Who wins the marketing battle, and which narrative is accepted, remains to be seen.Almost a perfect example of Karpman's Triangle. The Talliban as the attacker..the Afghan Government as the Victum....and the The US as The Rescuer....
Dr. Biddle is a smart guy, but he does not understand the problem that he is prescribing a solution for. What he offers is the CNAS party line, but its a very flawed position all the same.
Robert C. Jones
Intellectus Supra Scientia
(Understanding is more important than Knowledge)
"The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)
We keep coming back to Lt. General Nathan Bedford Forrest's axiom from the US Civil War of: "Get thar firstest with the mostest!"
Bob - I think I understand what you mean by the "CNAS party line", but to my knowledge Biddle is not - and has not been - affiliated with CNAS. He was at the AWC/SSI and is now connected to the CFR. If you have different/better information about that, let me know, but in fairness, I wanted to be clear that neither Biddle's presence on McChrystal's advisory group nor his subsequent reflections and analysis appear to have any institutional connection to CNAS (even if they do reach some similar conclusions).
Last edited by rborum; 08-02-2009 at 02:06 AM. Reason: typo
Randy Borum
Professor
College of Behavioral & Community Sciences
University of South Florida
Bio and Articles on SelectedWorks
Blog: Science of Global Security & Armed Conflict
Twitter: @ArmedConflict
Does anyone know how much time was spent with Afghani government officials, to see how they saw things? And would it have mattered? I presume it would have, and for the better.Gen. McChrystal organized that assessment as a series of teams or committees of members of his staff to work subtopics. But to work the overall question of how things are going--can we succeed, [and] if so how are we to do it?--he brought in a team of outside nongovernmental analysts to advise him.
We spent about the first week to ten days of the project in familiarization travel. We were then briefed very extensively by the key elements of the headquarter staff on the situation as they saw it, on the existing plans, on their current plans, and expectations for looking forward. And we then spent a substantial amount of time deliberating among ourselves and coming up with a draft written document that will eventually, assuming that Gen. McChrystal ultimately agrees, come out as the overall assessment [made] to the secretary of defense and to the secretary general of NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization]. That transmission is expected to occur on or about August 15.
Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"
- The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
- If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition
It is just that CNAS has become the unofficial source of what officials think "the right answer is." on these issues. So if you want to take the "correct" position on irregular activities, take one that falls in that lane. Staff at the AWC are great guys, but the institutional controls (largely informal I believe) are that you do not color outside the lines, so to speak. I've met Dr. Biddle and have heard him speak, read some of his stuff. Solid guy and well respected in his community.
Many of the current policy and strategy team at the Pentagon either came from CNAS, or rode the coattails of a CNAS mentor into the building. My sense is they are largely a good, competent, well-intended, hard working group. But it does create an air of 'not wanting to bite the hand that feeds you.'
I just think that the first source for what right looks like should be USSOCOM and/or SOLIC; but blood is thicker than water, and the bloodlines run to CNAS.
Last edited by Bob's World; 08-02-2009 at 10:41 AM.
Robert C. Jones
Intellectus Supra Scientia
(Understanding is more important than Knowledge)
"The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)
What would work best for and inside Afghanistan would need to build from and upon the tribal system that permeated and continues today througout all of Afghan society.
This is a heavy, complex subject which does not take a stamp or mold as from Iraq or Pakistan, it has to be unique to Afghanistan for Afghans at the simpliest level of society to buy it.
Providing security at the local level has always been the key that we cannot provide...this has to be done by trained up Afghan military and police.
Trying to convert to cash crops other than poppies is and has always been very difficult. Greed is the same the world over. Give me a subsidy not to grow poppies, I take your subsidy and then I still grow poppies and make even more money. Simplisticly said that is how it has been, is, and in my opinion will always be in Afghanistan.
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