Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[Dayuhan]

The question that should be asked is why didn't the US make this persuasive call back when Russia first invaded Crimea?

Impossible to answer without knowing what was said and what else was going on at the time.

Why?

Because they desperately needed money, and efforts to support the price by cutting production had failed catastrophically. The cartel broke. Cartels often do when under stress.

[Dayuhan]

I think we all understand that this is not just "humanitarian aid", but...

Can the Russians bring in enough force in this convoy to change the momentum in the conflict? Outlaw estimated elsewhere that 500-600 individuals will be involved, but haven't the Russians already infiltrated much larger numbers? Is it a game changer, or a face saver?

Is it possible that the convoy is intended not to bring military aid, but to provoke the Ukrainians into stopping it, which could then serve as a pretext for more aggressive action? I don't know how devious the Russians are prepared to be, but it would be a huge embarrassment for the Ukraine if they descended on the convoy with full armed force only to discover (publicly, of course) that there's nothing remotely military about it. The Russians could then accuse the Ukraine of obstructing humanitarian aid and use that to justify forcing an opening... or is that too convoluted to enter their minds?

Not trying to imply an answer, just looking for opinions.

[mirhond]

Is it possible that the convoy is intended not to bring military aid, but to provoke the Ukrainians into stopping it, which could then serve as a pretext for more aggressive action? I don't know how devious the Russians are prepared to be, but it would be a huge embarrassment for the Ukraine if they descended on the convoy with full armed force only to discover (publicly, of course) that there's nothing remotely military about it. The Russians could then accuse the Ukraine of obstructing humanitarian aid and use that to justify forcing an opening... or is that too convoluted to enter their minds?

Not trying to imply an answer, just looking for opinions.

You have vivid imagination Major channels several hours before reported that convoy is to cross the border near Kharkov, trucks get Ukrainian plates and crews.

[mirhond]

Putin might be a dick, but this georgian guy is now as good as dead.

upd. Crap, there are a lot of dead guys with such plastic carpets, so this particular adventurer is probably alive and well.

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin might be a dick, but this georgian guy is now as good as dead.

upd. Crap, there are a lot of dead guys with such plastic carpets, so this particular adventurer is probably alive and well.

comrade mirhond---here is a report that your favorite Russian commander from the FSB/GRU is evidently seriously wounded by a Ukrainian Seal team.

so much for quality Russian mercenaries.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko?orig...70919530876928

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---another report for you to mull over---titled Russian PM comments against Putin "hacked and or drunk"


East of Brussels @EastOfBrussels · 3h

#Russia's PM says he's ashamed of #Putin's government, resigns. Yes, hacked or Dmitry is really drunk #ukraine

[OUTLAW 09]

It appears now from Russian sources that the second top Russian mercenary has been wounded---one now in each of the last two mercenary held towns.

True story, fake story or the exit plan being put into play?

Secondly---there have been a series of tweets suggesting that the drivers are from an elite armored unit and will remain inside the Ukraine and others will drive back--there have been multiple reports recently of a large number of tanks parked in the surrounding areas in the forests but they have no more mercenary crews for them.

OSCE web site reports uniformed personnel w/no markings are crossing the border where their teams are reporting from.

Wounding link Russian news source;

http://itar-tass.com/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1378586

[Nyxilis]

You have vivid imagination Major channels several hours before reported that convoy is to cross the border near Kharkov, trucks get Ukrainian plates and crews.

See, what major channels? Russian? Because multiple EU, US, Japanese and Ukraine sources are saying different on their news channels.

In fact to quote Ukraine: "No humanitarian convoy of Putin's will be allowed to cross the territory of the Kharkiv region," Ukraine's interior minister Arsen Avakov wrote on Facebook. "Provocation by the cynical aggressor will not be permitted on our territory."

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0GD0P320140813

[Nyxilis]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28768746

But the BBC's Daniel Sandford in Moscow says that long discussions are continuing about whether the lorries will actually be allowed to enter.

Hardly so much has been confirmed, everyone is squabbling around it and way it's looking right now all those trucks might get passed off.

Those trucks mostly mean, to me, Russia is disengaging. Putin gets to look like, hey I'm doing stuff. Within my means. Food and stuff. Will give him leeway when sending more. Keep himself kosher with the Russian population in the east for essentially 'abandoning them'. Because if he doesn't invade, and Ukraine finishes off the rebels, and they will unless Russia comes, they're not going to like him much anymore either.

[BayonetBrant]

I'm just going to set this down here, and walk away

http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...l-army/375932/

excerpt:

The Kremlin, which has waged a massive disinformation campaign aimed at legitimizing Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine, has employed so-called "troll armies" to invade online territories armed with pro-Moscow rhetoric.

A June article by Max Seddon of BuzzFeed reported the Kremlin was spending millions of dollars to pay English-speaking Russians to promote President Vladimir Putin and his policies in U.S. media like Fox News broadcasting and The Huffington Post and Politico news sites. Trolls are reportedly expected to manage multiple fake accounts and post on news articles 50 times a day, often with sentiments as simplistic as "Putin makes Obama look stupid and weak!"

In order to promote its narrative, the Kremlin has adopted a two-fisted strategy, unleashing its troll armies even as it tightens Internet restrictions at home. On August 1, Russia enacted controversial new legislation aimed at muzzling social media, the last bastion of the country's embattled opposition and a free flow of information about the war in Ukraine.

Anton Nosik, a popular Russian blogger and programmer who is sometimes referred to as the "father of the Russian Internet," says the Kremlin is falling back on a time-honored strategy in its propaganda war on Ukraine. But this time, he says, the stakes are higher than ever before. (BuzzFeed reports that at least one trolling company—Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg—is expected to spend more than $10 million in 2014 alone.)

"Comments were already serving as a well-financed Kremlin instrument of war against the opposition, even five years ago," he says. "So what's going on now is nothing new. But what's absolutely clear is that now they're spending more money on Ukraine than they ever spent against Alexei Navalny, or Ekho Moskvy, Kommersant, Gazeta.ru"—Russian media actors who have been targeted by the Kremlin in the past—"and all the rest."

[Ray]

I'm just going to set this down here, and walk away

http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...l-army/375932/

excerpt:

Actually Obama has achieved this:

How Obama Is Driving Russia and China Together
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...together-10735

Five Ways Russia Could Help China's Military Become Even Deadlier
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...ome-even-11000

[mirhond]

In fact to quote Ukraine: "No humanitarian convoy of Putin's will be allowed to cross the territory of the Kharkiv region," Ukraine's interior minister Arsen Avakov wrote on Facebook. "Provocation by the cynical aggressor will not be permitted on our territory."

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0GD0P320140813

I'd rather believe Poroshenko's Executive Office

Украина не возражает против участия России в работе гуманитарной миссии в Луганск и область. Об этом заявил заместитель главы Администрации Президента Украины Валерий Чалый в эфире телеканала ICTV в понедельник, 11 августа.

Ukraine doesn't object to Russian participation in humanitarian mission to Lugansk, said Deputy Head of Executive Office Valeri Chalyi, 11 Aug.

http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/340...yia-prezydenta

then Facebook minister Avakov who is well-known liar and clown.

[JMA]

Impossible to answer without knowing what was said and what else was going on at the time.

LOL... loyal to the end.

Caught unawares, dithering, scared, etc.

History will show whether the CIA provided advanced warning or failed again. Either way it has been a Keystone Cops situation.

[Dayuhan]

LOL... loyal to the end.

Caught unawares, dithering, scared, etc.

History will show whether the CIA provided advanced warning or failed again. Either way it has been a Keystone Cops situation.

We still have no idea what was said in this rumored phone call, or to what extent the rumored call was responsible for a change in Russian plans. Given that lack of knowledge I can't see how the incident can be used as a basis for a conclusion, unless of course you've already reached the conclusion.

[JMA]

We still have no idea what was said in this rumored phone call, or to what extent the rumored call was responsible for a change in Russian plans. Given that lack of knowledge I can't see how the incident can be used as a basis for a conclusion, unless of course you've already reached the conclusion.

Likewise.