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    Small Wars Journal SWJED's Avatar
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    Default Sri Lanka Entering 'Low-Intensity' War

    2 July Associated Press - Sri Lanka Entering 'Low-Intensity' War.

    ... A year ago they called it a "Shadow War." Not anymore...

    Four years after a cease-fire raised hopes for peace between the government and Tamil Tiger rebels, Sri Lanka is teetering on the brink.

    The brink of what remains the question.

    Naval battles, suicide bombings and jungle clashes have once again become the norm on this tropical island that for two decades has been largely known for the ferocious ethnic struggle between its Hindu Tamil minority and its Buddhist Sinhalese majority.

    Still, the government and Tigers insist they are abiding by the truce, even as they settle into a pattern of attack and retaliation, with plenty of saber-rattling in between...

    The roots of Sri Lanka's conflict stretch back to the years after independence from Britain in 1948, when the government made Sinhala the official language, gave Buddhism a prominent role and Tamils faced widespread discrimination in schools and jobs.

    In 1983, a spasm of anti-Tamil violence that killed hundreds sparked war. Each side fought viciously: the Tigers used suicide bombings and murdered rival Tamil militants; the government routinely tortured Tamil civilians. The death toll stood at more than 65,000 when the cease-fire was signed in 2002.

    By then, the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam controlled wide swaths of the north and east where they have a country complete with border guards and traffic police...

    The inner workings of the Tiger leadership remain a mystery to outsiders, and there's widespread speculation about their motives for attacks such as a June 15 bus bombing that killed 64 civilians, most Sinhalese.

    Many say the Tigers are simply trying to push the government to grant broad autonomy over the territories they control. Others warn the rebels could be softening up government forces ahead of the rainy season, which starts in August, when the government's armored vehicles would be bogged down in mud.

    The government's motives are clearer - it faces pressure from hard-line political allies, generals and Sinhalese nationalists to destroy the Tigers...
    Background links:


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    Small Wars Journal SWJED's Avatar
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    Default Additional - Child Soldiers...

    2 July Reuters - Tamil Tigers: Child Fighter Claims High.

    Claiming they have just trained 6,000 civilians in armed combat, the Tamil Tigers accused the United Nations on Sunday of exaggerating the number of child fighters in the rebels' ranks.

    A 2002 cease-fire between the Sinhalese-dominated government and Tamil rebels is rapidly deteriorating, with rising violence killing more than 700 people since April in this island nation off the southern tip of India.

    A statement on the rebel group's Web site challenged UNICEF's claim that 1,387 children were among its fighters and said more than 800 of those listed were over 18 years old. Tamil Tigers have admitted to using children to fight their separatist war but have pledged to stop the practice...
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    Default Links here in the US...

    From the 30 Sep 06 Baltimore Sun: 6 Charged in MD Arms Deal Sting
    ...The elaborate sting operation took center stage in Baltimore this summer, where federal agents put up a Singapore arms broker at a four-star Inner Harbor hotel, arranged for him to attend religious services at a mosque in Laurel and took him to a shooting range in Harford County so he could test-fire machine guns they said he was interested in illegally buying.

    The ruse, authorities said, led representatives for the Tamil Tigers insurgents in Sri Lanka to deposit $700,000 with undercover agents as a down payment for millions of dollars in sniper rifles, submachine guns and grenade launchers. The arms dealers also inquired about unmanned air vehicles and buying surface-to-air missiles to shoot down Israeli-built aircraft in Sri Lanka, according to federal court papers...

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    ICG, 29 May 07: Sri Lanka's Muslims: Caught in the Crossfire
    ...The Muslims are the forgotten party in the Sri Lankan conflict. They have never resorted to violence to achieve their aims and so have never been properly consulted on how to end the conflict. With the new war in the east, they again are caught in the crossfire. Any initial support for the government’s offensive is waning as the TMVP replaces the LTTE as a threat, and Muslims once more face serious insecurity and concerns about Sinhalese nationalism....

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    Council Member Abu Buckwheat's Avatar
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    Seems to me SL has been in Low Intensity war for about 20 years now... the fighting has been far worse and the terrorism much more intense a decade ago ... is this another case of mastering the obvious by a writer who just heard about the SL war? I am sure it is.

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    The Economist, 7 Jun 07: A War Strange as Fiction
    ...an ugly war that has claimed over 70,000 lives flickers and, as currently, flares. Last year, according to official figures, more people died violently in Sri Lanka than in Afghanistan. In the past 18 months over 5,000 have been killed, compared with fewer than 200 in the previous three years. Sri Lankan pundits are calling this violence “Eelam War IV”: the fourth round in the struggle for an Eelam, or independent Tamil homeland. A ceasefire, brokered by Norway in 2002, is officially still in place. Yet government and Tigers are both preparing for bigger battles. A peaceful resolution to Sri Lanka's conflict may never have looked less possible....

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    The East-West Center, 14 Dec 07:

    Muslim Perspectives on the Sri Lankan Conflict
    The Sri Lankan ethnic conflict is often regarded as a two-way contest between the Sinhala majority and the Tamil minority, ignoring the interests and concerns of the island's 8 percent Muslim (or "Moorish") minority. One-third of Sri Lanka's Muslims are concentrated in towns and districts located within the Tamil-speaking agricultural northeast, a region envisioned as independent "Tamil Eelam" by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). In the postindependence period, the Muslim leadership at the national level abandoned their colonial identity as Arabs ("Moors") and adopted a religious identity as Muslims, clearly defining their ethnicity as neither Sinhala nor Tamil. Muslim politicians emphasized coalition politics with mainstream Sinhala parties until the outbreak of the armed Tamil secessionist campaign in the 1980s. Since then, Muslim communities in the northeast have suffered violence and dispossession at the hands of the LTTE, and they have been harmed by indiscriminate military campaigns conducted by the Sri Lankan armed forces. A Muslim political party, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, was formed in the 1980s to defend the security of the northeastern Muslims, and it has sought to secure an equal role for the Muslims in peace negotiations following the Ceasefire Agreement of 2002. A narrow Sinhala vs. Tamil mindset, and a complex set of sociological and political factors within the Muslim community, have limited the direct participation of the Muslims in the peace process. However, because of the large Muslim population in the multiethnic northeast, Muslims must be actively involved in any long-term settlement of the Sri Lankan ethnic conflict.
    Complete 100 page paper at the link.

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    ICG, 20 Feb 08: Sri Lanka's Return to War: Limiting the Damage
    Sri Lanka is in civil war again, and there are no prospects of a peace process resuming soon. On 2 January 2008, the government announced its withdrawal from a ceasefire agreement with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). This formalised a return to conflict that has been underway since 2006 but also presaged worse to come. The humanitarian crisis is deepening, abuses of human rights by both sides are increasing, and those calling for peace are being silenced. There is no present chance of a new ceasefire or negotiations since the government, despite pro forma statements in favour of a political solution, is dependent on hardliners and appears intent on a military decision. International actors must concentrate for now on damage limitation: protecting civilians from the war’s worst effects and supporting those working to preserve Sri Lanka’s democratic institutions.

    In addition to heavy fighting in the north, the first weeks of 2008 have seen the assassinations of a government minister and a Tamil opposition member of parliament, multiple bombings in Colombo, a wave of deadly attacks on civilians in the majority Sinhalese south, and widespread disappearances and killings of non-combantants in the north and east. More than 5,000 combatants and civilians are estimated to have been killed over the past two years. At least 140,000 have fled intensified fighting in the north, and more are likely to be forced out if the military continues its push into Tiger-controlled territory. If the government’s military approach in the east is a precedent for its conduct of the northern campaign, civilians and their property are at grave risk.

    Much of the blame for the resumption in violence lies with the LTTE; its ceasefire violations and abuses of the population under its control pushed the government towards war. The Tiger strategy was to shore up internal support by provoking a Sinhala nationalist reaction; it worked, although the insurgents may come to regret their approach. President Mahinda Rajapaksa has also overplayed his hand. Relying on support from Sinhala extremists, he has let them set an agenda that allows only for a military approach.....
    Complete 38 page paper at the link.

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    Council Member SteveMetz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jedburgh View Post
    From the 30 Sep 06 Baltimore Sun: 6 Charged in MD Arms Deal Sting

    Geez, I could have shown the guy Baltimore neighborhoods where he could have just bought machine guns off the street. Much less risky.

    The Singapore connection is interesting. The Tamil Tigers have probably made as much use of a global diaspora community as any insurgency (save perhaps the IRA).

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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveMetz
    ...The Tamil Tigers have probably made as much use of a global diaspora community as any insurgency (save perhaps the IRA).
    In the 2001 RAND pub, Trends in Outside Support for Insurgencies, The LTTE is the focus of Chapter 3: Diaspora Support for Insurgencies.
    ...This chapter analyzes the scope and dimensions of diaspora support for insurgencies. It provides an in-depth examination of how the LTTE has harnessed its overseas migrant community, using it for funding, arms running, and a host of other activities. The LTTE's experience is not typical, but rather represents the apex of how an insurgent organization can exploit a diaspora for its own ends. Drawing on the LTTE's experience, as well as that of other insurgencies, the chapter then describes the reasons why immigrant communities often support insurgencies in their native lands and examines the difficulties that many host governments have in halting this form of assistance. The chapter concludes with a brief discussion of the utility of diaspora backing in general and its value relative to states....

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    Council Member SteveMetz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jedburgh View Post
    In the 2001 RAND pub, Trends in Outside Support for Insurgencies, The LTTE is the focus of Chapter 3: Diaspora Support for Insurgencies.
    I once bought a suit from a Tamil tailor in Singapore so, unfortunately, I may have underwritten an RPG myself.

    There's a huge Tamil population in Canada as well.

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    Default Tamil Tiger Air Raid

    COLOMBO (Reuters) - A Tamil Tiger light aircraft bombed a Sri Lankan air force base next to Colombo international airport before dawn on Monday, killing three airmen and wounding 16 in the first such air strike by the rebel group.

    The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) said more such attacks by its air wing would follow, threatening to deepen renewed conflict in the island state off the toe of India.

    Airline and government officials said the civilian airport, 23 miles north of the capital, was not damaged but was closed for several hours following the attack.

    The military said the bombs hit a barracks, and that none of its aircraft was damaged. Sri Lanka's stock market fell in early trade following the attack.

    "A light Tiger aircraft flew over the air force base and dropped explosives. There have been two explosions. At the same time our air defenses activated and there is a search operation going on," said an air force spokesman, Group Captain Ajantha de Silva.
    Taken from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...032601734.html

    Pictures can be found at this Tamil website http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=21668

    The Air Force fighter jocks must be thrilled by the prospect of A2A combat in small wars!

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    Council Member Culpeper's Avatar
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    Default Sri Lanka rebels offer to lay down arms

    http://apnews.myway.com//article/200...D987V6VO0.html

    May 17, 7:22 AM (ET)

    By BHARATHA MALLWARACHI


    COLOMBO, Sri Lanka (AP) - The Tamil Tiger rebels admitted defeat in their 25-year-old war with the Sri Lankan government Sunday, offering to lay down their guns as government forces swept across their last strongholds in the northeast.

    The government rejected the last-ditch call for a cease-fire, saying the thousands of civilians trapped in the war zone all have escaped to safety and there was no longer any reason to stop the battle. The military said the remaining guerrillas were still fighting.
    "But suppose everybody on our side felt that way?"
    "Then I'd certainly be a damned fool to feel any other way. Wouldn't I?"


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    Big story, and one which deserves more attention and analysis than it has received: 26 year civil war and 80,000+ dead.
    They mostly come at night. Mostly.


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    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    It will be interesting to see what direction the Tamil nationalist movement goes from here. Hopefully the Tigers will be destroyed as an organization, which will allow more moderate and peaceful Tamil movements to grow. Just as importantly, the Rajapakse government needs to allow those movements political space. Long-term peace should be the goal, not just the destruction of a pack of terrorists.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rex Brynen View Post
    Big story, and one which deserves more attention and analysis than it has received: 26 year civil war and 80,000+ dead.
    Especially when, after the recent offensive, the UN does not launch a "war crimes" investigation, and journalists aren't being paid and despatched by NGOs to "gather" evidence.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

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    Default Where was it, where does it go next

    In many ways I think this will be a classic case study on how wage a civil war / counterinsurgency. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) have waged a very interesting conflict against the government of Sri Lanka. I don't recall reading about any other conflict that is remotely similiar in scope.

    The LTTE were among the first to develop cadres of suicide bombers (Black Tigers), normally individuals with suicide belts/vests, but they have also vehicle bombs (it was a truck bomb that seriously damaged the financial center in Colombo), and suicide boats that were capable of outrunning most Sri Lankan naval craft.

    In large pitched battles they frequently defeated conventional Sri Lankan troops, and in some battles the LTTE managed to kill several hundred Sri Lanka soldiers in one to two day battles using indirect fires and maneuver.

    In the last few years the LTTE even developed their own air force of sorts, and actually conducted raids on the airport in Sri Lanka's capital creating a great deal of panic for the economy.

    The Sri Lankan Tamils have large expat communities that are political active and raise considerable funds. They conducted fairly large protests recently in the UK and Canada in an effort to mobilize the international audience to put pressure on the Sri Lankan government to stop commiting alleged atrocities in the current fight, a fight that may spell the end of the LTTE as a credible force.

    Over the years this conflict has ebbed and flowed from mostly insurgent activities to realitivel large scale conventional fights, and LTTE operations have not been restricted to Sri Lanka. The government's current offensive is much different than the many they launched in previous years. Many of their previous offensives were successful until they the government couldn't sustain it, so they were unable to defeat hardcore pockets of resistance, thus they withdrew once again handing the territory they fought so hard for back to the LTTE. Obviously something has changed this time (external support?), and it appears that the Tigers will finally be defeated as a credible force. I'm sure we all hope that the LTTE is finally facing defeat, so Sri Lanka can hopefully enjoy a hard earned peace.

    Questions:

    1. Even if the LTTE main cadre and leadership is killed or captured, will that be the end of the Tamil struggle in Sri Lanka? Certainly not if Sri Lanka is not prepared to conduct a robust effort to address the needs of their Tamil people.

    2. What role will the Tamil expats play? Will they assist their people in accepting a peaceful resolution with the government, or will they attempt to subvert any peace efforts from afar?

    3. Is the Sri Lankan military and government capable of winning and sustaining the peace?

    The next few months will be critical.

  18. #18
    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
    1. Even if the LTTE main cadre and leadership is killed or captured, will that be the end of the Tamil struggle in Sri Lanka? Certainly not if Sri Lanka is not prepared to conduct a robust effort to address the needs of their Tamil people.
    This assumes they (the Tamils) have a legitimate grievance. Many terrorist/insurgent organisations do not have legitimate grievances, so there is nothing you can do to address them.
    EG: The RUF in Sierra Leone had no legitimate grievance. The FARC have no legitimate grievance. They are just drug dealing Marxists. They may hijack the odd social issue, but that this nothing to do with their raison-d'être.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

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    Default How Sri Lanka defeated the LTTE

    The term defeat is relative, thus it is used here only to refer to the battlefield defeat that the LTTE clearly were handed. It will take several months before we know if the defeat is complete. The LTTE diaspora is alive and well and they have already vowed to continued the fight. There are also LTTE splinter groups that were not under Prabakaran's sway that can now emerge as dominate players over time if the Sri Lankan government does not rapidly and satisfactorly address the thousands of Tamils displaced by the fighting.

    Recent articles written by those who appear to have good access indicate that several factors contributed to the defeat to the LTTE, but the following seemed to be essential:

    1. Strong Sri Lankan political resolve
    2. External support primarily from China, both military and political
    3. Joint operations
    a. Naval operations to isolate the LTTE by sinking their supply ships
    b. Air operations to conduct deep attack opertions (and close air support)
    c. Special opertions forces conducting raids deep in LTTE territory
    d. Most important militarily large scale, multi-front ground offensive where Sri Lankan Soldiers took and held ground.
    4. Important split within the LTTE ranks in 2004 that the LTTE never recovered from.


    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8063409.stm

    Today, Sri Lanka is among the few nations that can say it has successfully quelled a nearly three-decade insurgency by military means.
    This quote along is worthy of discussion.

    So many factors have contributed to the success of the Sri Lankan forces. There was a clear aim and mandate from the political level to the official level and to the military level to destroy the LTTE at any cost.
    Political will and mandate

    They also had international political support from China. China helped keep the UN off Sri Lanka's back, while Sri Lanka conducted aggressive military operations. These operations were viewed by many in the West as inhumane (what war isn't?) and perhaps outside the bounds of what is considered legal by the international community. It can be argued that ending the war is more humane in the long run than tying one's hands behind their back and dragging the conflict out for years. Perhaps this is a wake up call as to the true nature of war, and why so many western countries recently congratulated Sri Lanka on their success?

    A massive recruitment drive for the armed forces was launched (it increased from about 80,000 to more than 160,000 personnel). New weapons - including fighter jets, artillery guns and multi-barrel rocket launchers - were bought from countries like China, Pakistan and Russia, and new military strategies and tactics were evolved.
    Sustained military build up

    Small teams of commandoes were sent behind enemy lines to carry out attacks against rebel leaders and key defence lines.
    Disruption, destroy their sense of confidence

    The military also started to stretch them thin by opening up a number of fronts in the north.
    Perfect application of conventional forces to take and hold the ground.

    The Tamil Tigers had no answer to the bombing missions by air force jets.
    Asymmetric mismatches are always desired.

    The Sri Lankan military juggernaut cruised ahead despite mounting civilian casualties. The rebels thought the international community, especially neighbouring India, would intervene looking at the civilian suffering and bring about a ceasefire in the final stages. When that did not happen, they ran out of options
    The LTTE was isolated politically and then defeated militarly.

    the following is an interesting article on China's support (note the turn around in the fight started after 2004 long after most western countries withdrew their support from Sri Lanka, so China, Pakistan and Russian apparently made the biggest contributions in foreign aid and training).

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6297463.ece

    Chinese support crucial to Sri Lankan victory over Tamils

    Sri Lanka’s imminent victory over the Tamil Tigers owes much to a badly needed injection of arms and aid from China, as well as robust Chinese support at the United Nations, ever since the Government began its new offensive in 2007.
    Beijing appears, however, to have increased arms sales significantly to Sri Lanka since 2007, when the US suspended military aid over human rights issues.
    China's contributions were not altruistic, they want access to Sri Lankan ports so they can protect their trade lanes. They upped their aid to Sri Lanka from a few millions dollars to one billion dollars last year which must have enabled Sri Lanka to sustain their offensive against the LTTE.

    In addition, China has provided crucial diplomatic support in the UN Security Council, blocking efforts to put Sri Lanka on the agenda.
    Last edited by Bill Moore; 05-27-2009 at 07:28 AM.

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    Nice write-up.
    "But suppose everybody on our side felt that way?"
    "Then I'd certainly be a damned fool to feel any other way. Wouldn't I?"


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