Homs: #ISIS captured also 1 #Assad regime BMP and 6 ATGMs.
SAA efforts to encircle Bab create a series of second order escalation problems for the Turkish backed effort to create a de-facto safe zone
And underscores why its so dangerous — and wrong — to simply declare a “safe zone” without having a plan to defend it.
Homs: #ISIS captured also 1 #Assad regime BMP and 6 ATGMs.
Of course, @SputnikInt won't tell you, the "Belgian delegation" that visited #Assad are all right-wing extremists.
https://sputniknews.com/world/201702...rorists-assad/ …
RuSOF in Aleppo, December 2016 (saw it before here but in a smaller size)
Also today, numerous towns, covered by the #Syria "ceasefire" are being attacked by #Assad's air force.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lx-CYzEN_UU …
Jordanian air force AT-802U over #ISIS-held #Suwayda province in #Syria now.
Intelligence gathering Operation.
Just after receiving the Guardian APCs from the #US/@CJTFOIR, "SDF" handed them on to the #YPG.
And before you scream: Turkey is OK with it.
#JFS/#HTS also came under criticism for using raffled fridges, motorbikes etc., to lure the poor out from IDP camps to a Moheiseni speech:
Ahrar al-Sham is publicly & privately accusing #JFS/#HTS of faking unity pledges - using fake names to deceive:
Syria’s armed opposition met w. #Turkey today & agreed *not* to attend follow-up meeting in #Astana in coming days.
REASON
Ceasefire not secure.
For the 5th or 6th time, @DeptofDefense/@OIRSpox report a strike against #ISIS in #Idlib, where ISIS doesn’t exist.
[Hint: It’s Al-Qaeda]
Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
My write-up on formation of #HTS for @HJS_Org: "Al-Qaeda Reshapes the Insurgency in Northern Syria"
https://goo.gl/Cy2OU6
PMC Wagner as of January 2017 recruits fighters for combat missions in Afghanistan. Perfect timing.
https://twitter.com/CITeam_ru/status/828646173703536640
U.S. Preps for Infowar on Russia
http://thebea.st/2kcdTdu
E. #Ghouta: intense clashes & shelling on several axes as pro-Assad w/ Iraqis & Hezbollah, trying to advance. Repelled on Hawsh Nasri front.
Over 20 killed and a T-72 destroyed by Rebels in another failed attempt by pro-Assad to advance on Hawsh Nasri front.
E. #Ghouta: Jaish Al-Islam killed Colonel Shakif Hamoud, one of the Regime commanders leading assault on Hawsh Nasri front.
FSA Sultan Murad engaged in street battles with #ISIS (likely yesterday). One ACV-15 & an armoured bulldozer also used in assault on #Bzaah
FSA confirmation: #EuphratesShield forces took control of #Bzaah from #ISIS.
EuphratesShield forces asserted control over parts of #Bzaah. Pic geolocated at roundabout on main road #Manbij-Al-Bab.
FSA Northern Hawks found & plugged a sewer/water evacuation used by #ISIS to move fighters/weapons on #Bzaah front.
ISIS denied the takeover of #Bzaah by #EuphratesShield forces, saying assault is repelled.
FSA confirmation: #EuphratesShield forces took control of #Bzaah from #ISIS.
SE. #Hama: Rebels downed this reconnaissance quadcopter in Aydoun village, SW of #Salamiyah.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34...74487&z=12&m=b …
To CrowBat RE: Palace Coup
That is interesting news.Originally Posted by CrowBat
I’ll preface with my thought from November that Trump may be of more benefit to the Free Syrian Army then Clinton would have been. In all probability, Clinton would have incrementally increased the support for the FSA, but would have been mindful of accusations that the United States was perpetrating yet another overthrow and that it was training and equipping Muslim supremacists. The threat of increased US intervention held the Moscow-Teheran-Damascus axis together, but without that threat, its differences are laid bare. In addition, Ankara, Amman, Riyadh and Doha would have been under far more scrutiny and restrictions in terms of arming the FSA under a Clinton presidency. He who pays the piper calls the tune, after all..
It’s said that Maher is a loose cannon and a war criminal who has no aversion to setting the Shabiha loose on civilians or gassing them, so if Maher was leading the NDF, the war would enter an even more vicious phase.
Despite his figurehead status and all of the atrocities committed in his name, I would imagine that Assad is far more “moderate” than his brother. The question is: if not Assad, then who? Who among the Alawi leadership could make peace with the Sunni Arabs and the Kurds, expel the IRGC and protect the Alawis and other minorities from being overrun by Daesh or Nusra?
It seems like a bit of a stretch to me. You have yourself written extensively on failed Russian arms sales to Iran, and the disputes over the nuclear reactor and S-400 projects are well-known. Russia probably had more influence in Iran by way of Tudeh prior to the Revolution than after, and Teheran can always hew towards China if its relations with Moscow become frosty.
Syria has secretly executed thousands of political prisoners, report from Amnesty International
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world....ba7bc04ccd9e#
I do not understand why are all the problems this Turkish effort is facing so much ignored?
Firstly, we've seen - so often, again and again - that the Daesh is anything but easy to beat. Pilling forces and unleashing all sorts of fire-power against it is just not making the job. We've seen that well-organized and -run operations collapse in face of anything between a single and a few SVBIED-counterattacks by the Daesh.
And there is no way of forcing it to flee. It takes a sustained effort, resulting in killing, smashing, destroying the Daesh. We've seen this all over northern and north-western Iraq, we've seen this so often in Syria, all the way from Ayan al-Arab (aka 'Kobane') to Tikrit.
But nah, 'Turks can't do it'. As if the Iraqi Army can do it, or as if Kurds can do it - and that with all the support the CENTCOM can offer? (I'll not even go into discussing Syrian Kurds or that 'Syrian Arab Army', IRGC etc.).
In the case of Turkey, there's a military that was de-facto 'decimated' since the coup attempt of the last year: its top commanders are all out; even most of its mid-rank commanders are out. The chain of command is broken and still in the process of recovery; units have been disbanded, even peace-time ops, training and maintenance schedules have all not recovered to pre-coup times. Most of what was left with the military is already busy fighting the PKK, i.e. trying to kick it out of bases inside Turkey the terrorists were able to establish during the cease-fire - and that in most complex scenario possible (urban warfare).
What was left after all of this - and that's an equivalent of two task-forces that are not even 'brigade-sized' - was deployed to fight the Daesh in northern Syria, 'reinforced' by a hodgepodge of Syrian insurgent units. Most of the latter were weakened by more than one year of fighting the Daesh, the IRGC, the Russians, plus five years of fighting Assadists.
The rest should be clear alone from taking a good look at the map of the area where this force is operating, and at least superficial following of related news: as soon as this force drove deep enough into Syria, it found itself on the receiving end of Kurdish attacks into both of its flanks, and Assadist air strikes. Plus Daesh's counterattacks. It's a small wonder the CENTCOM didn't bomb it too.
Which means: the further south it advances, the more it moves around al-Bab, the more are its flanks exposed to Kurdish counterattacks; the more of its own forces are Turks and Syrians forced to deploy just to secure these flanks and what they have captured so far. And all the time one must keep in mind: 'a single or few' Daesh 'counter-attacks' by SVBIEDs can 'delete' all the hard work of an advance that took days, weeks, perhaps months.
Alone the fact this zone has survived so far underscores that there is very much a plan to defend it (otherwise it wouldn't be there any more).
What Turks and allied Syrians are missing is the freedom of manoeuvre necessary to outflank the Daesh. For this they have no space, precisely because of US-supported Kurds that are meanwhile cooperating with Russians and Assadists on either side of their salient.
But foremost: left alone by its 'allies' USA and the NATO, Turkey is also forced to run this operation under extremely limiting conditions. They can't rush, say, a full division into Syria without Russian consent, i.e. without a threat of war with Russia. They can't even provide decent air cover to its and allied ground forces without provoking Moscow.
But, this is all not considered, and instead Turks are simply declared for 'incompetent' and 'lacking a plan'...?
Makes me curious to see any other military force - including any from the USA - alone surviving such conditions, not to talk about being as successful as Turks were so far.
You've got my agreement here.
Plus, mind the old lesson that 'victory has many fathers...' etc.
That's right. But, right now there's no difference in this regards - and most of money and supplies are provided to fundamentalists instead.In addition, Ankara, Amman, Riyadh and Doha would have been under far more scrutiny and restrictions in terms of arming the FSA under a Clinton presidency. He who pays the piper calls the tune, after all..
Indeed, in this regards the US policy under Trump can only be described as another shot into own foot, i.e. continuation of Oblabla's policy of shooting own foot at every opportunity.
Overall, I simply do not understand any more how is it possible that everybody is defending this cluster-#### created in Syria, and declaring anything for 'better' - but a prevention of all of this from happening by a regime-change back in 2011-2012...
Few things here:It’s said that Maher is a loose cannon and a war criminal who has no aversion to setting the Shabiha loose on civilians or gassing them, so if Maher was leading the NDF, the war would enter an even more vicious phase.
- NDF: there was never something like 'NDF' like a unified force with central command etc. All the announcements about creation of the NDF were white-washing of Iranian activity in regards of establishing various sectarian militias in Syria.
- Maher: if Maher would be in a position to command and control a body like what NDF is (wrongly) assumed to be, he would've coupped himself in power already years ago.
The fact he didn't means he's not in control of anything more but the 4th Division and one of 'intelligence/security agencies', plus various of rag-tag gangs owned by various of Alawite warlord.
With this, any further discussion to this topic is actually surplus.
Neither is 'better' and even less so 'more moderate'. The only difference between them is that Bashar would never go to the street to shoot civilians with his own hands - like Maher did.Despite his figurehead status and all of the atrocities committed in his name, I would imagine that Assad is far more “moderate” than his brother.
Nobody. Russians know this and that's why they saved him. Iranians know this actually too, but meanwhile they have reached a point at which they can survive on their own in Syria.The question is: if not Assad, then who?
Nobody. Alawite leaders are not even curious to make peace with Sunnis - or if, then only on their own conditions. Kurds are for them, 'just the next episode, once they finish Sunnis', Daesh etc. too.Who among the Alawi leadership could make peace with the Sunni Arabs and the Kurds, expel the IRGC and protect the Alawis and other minorities from being overrun by Daesh or Nusra?
And Nusra is no 'enemy' for them. They see it the same way the Russians do: a 'useful tool'. That's why they are never attacking it.
No, Russia never had any kind of influence in Tehran - especially not because of Tudeh (and even less so at the times there was still Tudeh as 'significant force in Iran').It seems like a bit of a stretch to me. You have yourself written extensively on failed Russian arms sales to Iran, and the disputes over the nuclear reactor and S-400 projects are well-known. Russia probably had more influence in Iran by way of Tudeh prior to the Revolution than after, and Teheran can always hew towards China if its relations with Moscow become frosty.
Precisely that's the difference now in comparison to earlier times: now there are 2-3 IRGC cliques that would love to establish a major military alliance with Russia. This is something that was never before the case.
It just seems that Putin remains insistent on his decision not to let Iran develop into a serious conventional military power.
Syria #Damascus suburb #Erbin today after airstrikes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AG1RJiHGAfE#
Aftermath of brutal air strikes on residential area in #Idlib today.
Activists don't know who is behind it, suspect also the US.
8 killed
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-07-2017 at 11:23 AM.
Kremlin announces a "very important phone call to be made by Putin today", no other news given.
Aleppo: No #FSA gains against #ISIS around #Al_Bab today, but reports that pro-#Assad forces captured Birat al bab south of #Al_Bab.
Aleppo: #ISIS captured 9 regime checkpoints, seized a BMP and weapons east of #Khanaser after failed regime attack.
Important: Last time the reports about #Khanaser came only from "local sources" and most of them were fake.
Costs of Admiral Kuznetsov deployment to the Mediterranean by #Russia visualised:
Lavrov Says Damascus Was 'Weeks' From Falling To 'Terrorists' When Russia Intervened. True?
http://bit.ly/2jZ4ycP
Aleppo: Pro-#Assad forces are coming dangerously close to #Al_Bab.
Aleppo: New Turkish artillery strikes against #YPG positions near #Azaz.
East of #Damascus today.
#Assad ignores the ceasefire, his jets strike civilians in 5 towns.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WhVtMxdobc#
More massive #Assad air force attacks on towns east of #Damascus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3lrqeWjYW8#…
Russian TV with pro-#Assad forces in #Aran, 7 km south of #alBab.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XR_vYlvsz6Q#…
Of the #Idlib Massacre.
Number of deaths is up to 20 in massive overnight bomb attacks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VATITvLt9s#…
More footage from Arbin, where 4 civilians including a baby died and 10 were injured.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tc-VB-YoXjM#…
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-07-2017 at 05:07 PM.
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