Quote Originally Posted by novelist View Post
My worry is that the NATO allies might not uphold their obligation if Putin turns their gas off.
Putin can't cut the gas off. He needs the money. At this point Putin is just as concerned with overdependence on Europe as a buyer as Europe is with overdependence on Russia as a seller.

Russia is dependent on pipelines for exports. That makes them vulnerable: a pipeline is not a tanker; it can't be diverted to another destination. It only goes to one place, which means Putin sells to Europe or to nobody. He can't sell to nobody, because his government depends almost entirely on energy revenue. Europe would hurt if the energy trade with Russia stops, but Russia will hurt more.

The Russians are pursuing new pipelines that will allow them to send more gas and oil to Asia, but it will be years before they are ready. Europe will probably be able to diversify supply faster than Russia can develop new outlets, but for now, Russia and Europe are stuck with each other.