Egypt's Spring Revolution (2011-2013)

[Bob's World]

Watching Fox news. Huckabaee is all "this is bad for Israel"; Then the CEO of Heinz "this is bad for business." Prior to them a former CIA expert on AQ "This will empower the Islamists."

The answer one gets depends on the equities of who one asks.

Myself, I am simply a student of Insurgency, history and the law and a retired SF officer and former prosecutor. Take any answer I provide in that context. We all have our biases.

For me personally, this is long overdue and generally good. We should probably start a SWC pool for which state erupts next. It could be Yemen, Algeria, or Libya. Or even Jordan or Saudi Arabia. The people are drawing courage from each other (this is the reality of globalization, and this is what did indeed led to the fall of the Berlin Wall two decades ago).

My assessment is that the President is being a bit too cautious, but he is sending his agents out to test the waters in the right general direction.

The Fear Mongers are starting to line up though, and we could blink. I hope we go with our national principles and support the people. If we don't support them AQ and the Islamist community will.

[Fuchs]

That was all predictable, few people are still concerned with the full picture. You don't get paid for that. You get paid for looking at a specific direction only.

I hope we go with our national principles and support the people.

Looks like the government isn't on a common line yet. Clinton sounds kinda pro-civility and at least doesn't back Mubarak openly. Biden meanwhile refused to call Mubarak an autocrat/dictator. Obama mentioned only Tunisia and was silent about Egypt and Algeria afaik.

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Concerning the thread title: "Scenes from Egypt's Would-Be Revolution"

There might be some really ugly scenes pretty soon if the Egyptian army comes into play with MBTs, for these are mostly U.S. models. It's not going to look well if M1 Abrams are being used against demonstrators.

Looking forward to the future diplomatic cable leak that shows how U.S. diplomats attempt frenzily to convince Mubarak to send only T-62s and T-55s, if any MBTs...

[davidbfpo]

Some puzzling BBC-TV footage this evening, oddly starting with a short clip of Army M113 going at speed through city streets - in Cairo. Then a much longer report on events in Cairo, what was clear that the numbers protesting are large and now the slums have joined in:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

A short comment on the security forces:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12312337

The report from Suez indicates a loss of control for sometime, with a central police station looted - for weapons - and set alight.

From a different angle is a commentary by the counter-radical UK-based "think tank', the Quilliam Foundation, entitled ‘Egypt and the eclipse of the Muslim Brotherhood’:http://www.quilliamfoundation.org/im...s/egyptjan.pdf

[Pete]

Why all this concern about U.S.-made stuff -- tear gas canisters, tanks, APCs -- being shown on TV? The public relations aspect is fairly trivial in the grand scheme of things. Some years ago the same thing happened with the WP rounds used by Israel.

[Fuchs]

Why all this concern about U.S.-made stuff -- tear gas canisters, tanks, APCs -- being shown on TV? The public relations aspect is fairly trivial in the grand scheme of things. Some years ago the same thing happened with the WP rounds used by Israel.

Tom Clancy didn't popularize WP rounds. He idealized the M1 Abrams, and the tank has certainly the highest recognition rate world-wide.

Did you never wonder why the baddies in Hollywood movies almost never use AR-15s? Such a "public relations aspect" could be an eye-opener.

Besides; my forum post here was fairly trivial in the grand scheme of things - why did you respond to it?

[Bob's World]

President Obama breaks his silence. Best speech I have ever heard him make.

As to the Egyptian Army, coming from one who served proudly with the Egyptian Army during the Gulf War: This is the wild card. Egyptian soldiers are about 180 out from western soldiers. An Egyptian soldier will do exactly what he is told and not think to question his superior. He will continue to execute a task until told to stop. He will not worry about why he is doing it, he is told to do it and that is all that matters. He has no concept of "commander's intent." He does what he is told, no more and no less.

However. Unless they have changed, they are draftees and serve two year enlistments. They have no NCO corps. Often a rifle platoon has more college educated privates than the Company has college educated officers. The officer corp are lifers, but the men are civilians in uniform

Assessment: If push comes to shove the Army will follow orders. If shove comes to something more dramatic, I suspect the soldiers will join the civilians and leave the officers to their own devices.

[TheCurmudgeon]

President Obama breaks his silence. Best speech I have ever heard him make.

As to the Egyptian Army, coming from one who served proudly with the Egyptian Army during the Gulf War: This is the wild card. Egyptian soldiers are about 180 out from western soldiers. An Egyptian soldier will do exactly what he is told and not think to question his superior. He will continue to execute a task until told to stop. He will not worry about why he is doing it, he is told to do it and that is all that matters. He has no concept of "commander's intent." He does what he is told, no more and no less.

However. Unless they have changed, they are draftees and serve two year enlistments. They have no NCO corps. Often a rifle platoon has more college educated privates than the Company has college educated officers. The officer corp are lifers, but the men are civilians in uniform

Assessment: If push comes to shove the Army will follow orders. If shove comes to something more dramatic, I suspect the soldiers will join the civilians and leave the officers to their own devices.

I think you are dead on. The Army will ultimately decide what happens to the remaining existing government.

The question in my mind is what will replace it - a more democratic institution, a hard-line Islamic government. or a civil war between the two.

[Ken White]

LINK.

If the article at the link is correct. Shades of Kermit Roosevelt...

As my Mother said, be careful what you wish for -- you may get it. We'll see how this works out for us -- and them...

[Dayuhan]

Watching Fox news. Huckabaee is all "this is bad for Israel"; Then the CEO of Heinz "this is bad for business." Prior to them a former CIA expert on AQ "This will empower the Islamists."

All of them wrong, I'd have to say. No reason to think a new regime in Egypt would have any interest in going to war with Israel; they'll have a whole lot to do on the home front... and in any event it's Israel who should be looking after Israel's interests, not us. I don't at all see how political change is bad for business... in an ossified situation like this removing the dead wood is likely to be good for business in the long run.

The Islamists stand to lose more than anyone, I think. They didn't initiate this, and they aren't driving it. It reminds me in that sense of the Philippines, where a Communist movement that had opposed a dictator for decades failed to anticipate or exploit the events that eventually removed him, and were left behind in the process. I suspect that the Islamists may end up missing Mubarak more than we do, just as the Communists in the Philippines found themselves largely irrelevant without Marcos.

I hope we go with our national principles and support the people. If we don't support them AQ and the Islamist community will.

That would depend on what "support the people" means. I certainly don't think we should support Mubarak. There may be a point where we can have some impact by withdrawing support, but that impact will be purely psychological: he doesn't rely on our support to that great an extent. We could offer asylum if he stands down, and threaten to withdraw that offer if he holds on, but that's largely a moot point; I doubt he'd be looking at asylum in the US anyway. We're not going to get directly involved (inshallah) and there's a limit to what statements can do.

Overreacting on any side would be an error, IMO. In large part we'll be watching, waiting, and working with whatever emerges. Trying to control or direct what emerges would, I suspect, backfire badly.