Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[KingJaja]

I pointed this out earlier - the severe limitations of an "AFRICOM" led approach to fighting terrorism.

A few salient points.

1. The Tauregs yearn for an independent homeland.
2. Many armed Tauregs are moving down south in the wake of Gaddafi's ouster.
3. This results in a better armed opposition against the the Malian military.
4. Malian troops (although AFRICOM trained) were not well paid or well compensated - this triggered a set of riots by the widows of Malian troops killed by the Tauregs.
5. The coup is a result of a set of very complex events.
6. AFRICOM will find it difficult to operate effectively here and the US stands to risk of inserting itself into the internal politics of a sovereign state if it sticks its neck in too much.
7. Al Qaeda loves to exploit these kind of situations.

[JMA]

The Tauregs yearn for an independent homeland.

...and why shouldn't they?

[Uboat509]

...and why shouldn't they?

Because they are not a single homogenous group, but rather a series of affiliated tribes spread across several states. Even if they were to get an independent homeland, the lands that they traditionally inhabit are some of the least viable lands in the Sahel. They are heavily dependent on aid from the states that they inhabit and foreign (NGO) aid. Any new Tuareg state would just be another economic basket case that would require extensive aid just to survive, never mind grow.

Most of the Tuareg that I knew in Niger harbored no particular interest in an independent Tuareg homeland. They just wanted to be better integrated into the states in which they lived. I can certainly sympathize with that. The Tuareg have had it hard. They do not fit in well with either the black Africans in the south nor the Arabs to the north. Niger's previous president liked to use the fear of Tuareg insurrection as a kind of wag the dog ploy. If memory serves, Mali's president did some of that as well. For their part, the Tuareg have been associated with many things that have not necessarily endeared them to the general public in the states they inhabit, including smuggling and slavery. Those associations are, of course, exaggerated but they are not totally unjustified, but then there are not many ways to make a living where many of them live.

[Stan]

More from the front lines...

Our correspondent says it is possible that the coup may falter, pointing out that the mutinous troops are poorly equipped, led by a mid-ranking soldier and they do not have the backing of all Malian forces.

The well-trained and organized Red Berets unit is loyal to the president and he is believed to be under their protection, our reporter says.

If those officers decide to push back, they could perhaps overturn the coup, he says.

[KingJaja]

Even if the coup falters, it will have an adverse impact on the Malian army. Coups led by senior officers tend to leave the command structure intact. Junior officers coups, on the other hand, tend to destroy the structure of the army.

If ATT quells this coup, he'll have to restructure the army.

All the better for the Tauregs/Al Qaeda.

[J Wolfsberger]

All the better for the Tauregs/Al Qaeda.

From what (admittedly) little I know, the Tuareg don't seem to have a culture that would be receptive to Salafist teaching and practices. Which leads to this question: Is Al Qaeda using the Tuareg, or are the Tuareg using Al Qaeda?

[KingJaja]

From what (admittedly) little I know, the Tuareg don't seem to have a culture that would be receptive to Salafist teaching and practices. Which leads to this question: Is Al Qaeda using the Tuareg, or are the Tuareg using Al Qaeda?

A little of both.

Nigerian Christianity wasn't an American "word of faith" style thing thirty years ago, it is today. You couldn't get a Nigerian Muslim to do suicide bombing ten years ago, you can today.

Have you heard about Usman Dan Fodio? The Fulani weren't particularly known for piety in Northern Nigeria until he came around 200 years ago. (They aren't that well known for piety outside Nigeria - they are the "Jallows" and the "Diallos" )

Circumstances change, people change. After seeing the rapid pace of change in Africa over my short lifetime, I believe that anything is possible.

[JMA]

Because they are not a single homogenous group, but rather a series of affiliated tribes spread across several states. Even if they were to get an independent homeland, the lands that they traditionally inhabit are some of the least viable lands in the Sahel. They are heavily dependent on aid from the states that they inhabit and foreign (NGO) aid. Any new Tuareg state would just be another economic basket case that would require extensive aid just to survive, never mind grow.

Most of the Tuareg that I knew in Niger harbored no particular interest in an independent Tuareg homeland. They just wanted to be better integrated into the states in which they lived. I can certainly sympathize with that. The Tuareg have had it hard. They do not fit in well with either the black Africans in the south nor the Arabs to the north. Niger's previous president liked to use the fear of Tuareg insurrection as a kind of wag the dog ploy. If memory serves, Mali's president did some of that as well. For their part, the Tuareg have been associated with many things that have not necessarily endeared them to the general public in the states they inhabit, including smuggling and slavery. Those associations are, of course, exaggerated but they are not totally unjustified, but then there are not many ways to make a living where many of them live.

And the USA is a single homogenous group? Afghanistan (a country which the US seems to want to keep together at all costs) comprises a homogenous group?

In my Southern African travels I have noted the one 'thing' that really gets Africans angry is the smart solutions for Africa's problems thought up by so-called 'smart' people in the US with little or no experience or understanding of Africa.

If the Tuareg peoples (note the plural) consolidated into single 'homeland' would not be able to form a viable state (in your opinion) why would it be acceptable for their 'area' to be carved up among a handful of surrounding states where the Tuaregs would be 'looked after' like a parasitic minority by the (certainly not affluent) racially/ethnically/religiously (tick as applicable) different majority?

I don't want to question your sources, or your reading of the local situation as I don't know what exposure you had in Mali... I have none. I would suggest that as a general comment the 'research' carried out by foreigners before forming an opinion is 99% too limited and as such leads to incorrect conclusions being drawn.

(On this point I remember being told by a US female USAID worker that tribalism no longer existed in Mozambique. I asked her how she had arrived at that decision and she replied that her local driver (who she was screwing) had told her. For those who don't know there is a tendency among educated and semi-educated Africans to deny the existence of tribalism as this would somehow confirm the backward status of Africa.)

[Stan]

(On this point I remember being told by a US female USAID worker that tribalism no longer existed in Mozambique. I asked her how she had arrived at that decision and she replied that her local driver (who she was screwing) had told her. For those who don't know there is a tendency among educated and semi-educated Africans to deny the existence of tribalism as this would somehow confirm the backward status of Africa.)

They (some of us) also deny the fact that cannibalism exists. At least until they see a body face down in a ditch with no meat on the calves
The favorite sources for intel in Kinshasa were the cooks. I could barely wait for the Monday briefings having just drove around the city with Tom to make sure we actually saw what we would report on. Strange concept, knowing what you are talking about

[JMA]

They (some of us) also deny the fact that cannibalism exists. At least until they see a body face down in a ditch with no meat on the calves
The favorite sources for intel in Kinshasa were the cooks. I could barely wait for the Monday briefings having just drove around the city with Tom to make sure we actually saw what we would report on. Strange concept, knowing what you are talking about

Cannibals in the DRC?

In Zimbabwe you need to watch out for the 'sperm hunters' (YCMTSU)

[Little Doughnut]

Can anyone link me to some more current info on USG security capacity building efforts in Mali?

In 2010, according to DSCA they received a paltry 200k in FMF monies. But, the Trans Saharan Counter Terrorism Initiative is funded under a different line by Congress. Am I correct? Is the TSCTI primarily implemented by AFRICOM? From what I can ascertain, AID and DoS also have a role, but I'm concerned more with the CT training part of it.

Essentially what I'm trying to answer is: How much does the USG have invested in counter-AQIM efforts in Mali and how will these efforts be set back by the recent coup?

I know the USG tends to work with whomever is convenient, but I doubt relations with the ruling junior officers will continue as normal.

I'd love a link with some more solid information on training, but please do weigh in any way you see fit.

[Stan]

Cannibals in the DRC?

In Zimbabwe you need to watch out for the 'sperm hunters' (YCMTSU)

JMA,
Far worse things have happened to me in Africa !
But, to be subdued and forced to have sex... That has yet to happen

Susan Dhliwayo claims she pulled her car over recently to pick up a group of male hitchhikers and they refused to get in, because they feared they were going to be raped.

"Now, men fear women. They said: 'we can't go with you because we don't trust you'," 19-year-old Miss Dhliwayo recounted.

Local media have reported victims of the highway prowlers being drugged, subdued at gun or knife point – even with a live snake in one case – given a sexual stimulant and forced into repeated sex before being dumped on the roadside.

[Uboat509]

And the USA is a single homogenous group? Afghanistan (a country which the US seems to want to keep together at all costs) comprises a homogenous group?

My point was simply that these groups do not necessarily want the same things. Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion since there is a very real possibility that that they do not all want these things. Also the fact that they are so spread out begs the question of whose homeland do they want? In other words, do the Malian Tuareg want the homeland to be in what is now northern Mali? What about the Nigerien Tuareg? Are the Tuareg in others areas going to be willing to relocate to this new homeland?

In my Southern African travels I have noted the one 'thing' that really gets Africans angry is the smart solutions for Africa's problems thought up by so-called 'smart' people in the US with little or no experience or understanding of Africa.

Read my post again. I did not advocate any "fixes." I was, in fact, advocating against fixes imposed by foreign governments i.e. forcing existing states to cede sovereign land for the creation of a Tuareg homeland.

If the Tuareg peoples (note the plural) consolidated into single 'homeland' would not be able to form a viable state (in your opinion) why would it be acceptable for their 'area' to be carved up among a handful of surrounding states where the Tuaregs would be 'looked after' like a parasitic minority by the (certainly not affluent) racially/ethnically/religiously (tick as applicable) different majority?

My comment about the viability of the lands was regarding the terrain, weather and lack of resources. I do not think that I will get a lot of argument that the Sahel is one of the harshest places to live in the world. If they were to create a new state there how would that state feed its people, never mind establish a viable economy? I have no idea what the last part of your statement was about.

[KingJaja]

This looks like total mayhem. It seems as if Mali has been set back a few years.

BAMAKO (Reuters) - Bread and fuel ran low in Mali's capital Bamako on Friday as mutineering soldiers looted petrol stations and shops and hijacked cars, residents said, while coup leaders sought to consolidate their grip on power.

The mutinous soldiers, angered by what they saw as President Amadou Toumani Toure's poor handling of a northern rebellion, roamed the streets of the capital after over-running the presidential palace and taking control of state television.

But Tuareg rebels in northern Mali, aiming to capitalise on the confusion in the distant capital, pushed south to occupy positions abandoned by government forces, sources said.

Captain Amadou Sanogo, the head of a body set up by the mutineers, suggested on Thursday that soldiers were trying to arrest Toure.

The president's whereabouts were unknown, though unconfirmed reports said he was being protected by loyalist troops in the city.

Despite Sanogo's calls to the soldiers to stop pillaging and respect private property, residents said looting was continuing and had caused shortages while fuel prices have doubled to over 1,300 CFA francs a litre in about 24 hours.

"People are afraid because of the soldiers. Often (they take) what is in the car or they make you get out and take the car or sometimes the soldiers themselves just break into shops," said Bamako resident Adama Quindo.

Around the city, most shops, petrol stations and businesses were closed while some residents ventured out in search of bread and petrol.

http://af.reuters.com/article/topNew...120323?sp=true

[Stan]

This looks like total mayhem. It seems as if Mali has been set back a few years.

Sadly, now set back several decades. This sounds like just about every upheaval I've had the pleasure of witnessing.

It's one thing to say you're doing it for your people and country...

The mutinous soldiers, angered by what they saw as President Amadou Toumani Toure's poor handling of a northern rebellion, roamed the streets of the capital after over-running the presidential palace and taking control of state television.

And, it's entirely another to perform this, with the general consent and participation of the population...

"People are afraid because of the soldiers. Often (they take) what is in the car or they make you get out and take the car or sometimes the soldiers themselves just break into shops," said Bamako resident Adama Quindo.

This would be more to be concerned about and just where it's heading after Mali

flooded with men and weapons after Libya's civil war

[JMA]

My point was simply that these groups do not necessarily want the same things. Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion since there is a very real possibility that that they do not all want these things. Also the fact that they are so spread out begs the question of whose homeland do they want? In other words, do the Malian Tuareg want the homeland to be in what is now northern Mali? What about the Nigerien Tuareg? Are the Tuareg in others areas going to be willing to relocate to this new homeland?

Read my post again. I did not advocate any "fixes." I was, in fact, advocating against fixes imposed by foreign governments i.e. forcing existing states to cede sovereign land for the creation of a Tuareg homeland.

My comment about the viability of the lands was regarding the terrain, weather and lack of resources. I do not think that I will get a lot of argument that the Sahel is one of the harshest places to live in the world. If they were to create a new state there how would that state feed its people, never mind establish a viable economy? I have no idea what the last part of your statement was about.

I don't want to get into a back and forth with you over this but I need to comment.

You need to accept that comment like "Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion" must surely also apply to what you were told and what you believe, yes?

Your 'fix' is not to do anything... so the war will continue. Some fix that is.

Like indigenous people in other extreme climatic areas maybe they just want to continue with their traditional way of life. Maybe they don't want a modern state with malls, Walmart, MacDonald's and Starbucks. No matter how backward we may think their lifestyle is maybe they like it just like that ... and are prepared to fight for it.

[KingJaja]

What do you think?

An interesting nugget from the AP's latest dispatch from Bamako:

A diplomat who requested anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press said that [Capt. Amadou Haya] Sanogo, the coup leader, was among the elite tier of soldiers selected by the U.S. Embassy to receive military counterterrorism training in America. Sanogo, the official said, traveled "several times" to America for the special training.

That means that he had to pass a background check indicating that he was not complicit in any human rights crimes. The official requested not to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

As blogger Laura Seay quips, "your tax dollars at work."

The U.S. hasn't yet made a decision on whether to cut off military assistance to Mali following the coup. According to State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland, annual U.S. assistance to Mali is around $137 million, about half of which is humanitarian aid. France suspended its military cooperation with Mali yesterday.

See also: Elizabeth Dickinson's post from 2010 on why coups always seem to be led by captains or colonels not generals.

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/...ined_in_the_us

About Dickinson - We've never had a successful junior officer coup in Nigeria.

[Uboat509]

You need to accept that comment like "Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion" must surely also apply to what you were told and what you believe, yes?

I am not saying that anybody was lied to about what the Tuareg do or do not want. I am simply saying that, because they are such a sparse and widely spread group that none of them can be said to be speaking for all of them. I am sure that some Tuareg absolutely do want a homeland. I also know that some are not so interested and I cannot say that either point of view represents the majority view.

Your 'fix' is not to do anything... so the war will continue. Some fix that is.

My point is that I am not advocating any fix at all by foreign powers. This is not an issue that they can fix. Africa's problems will have to be solved by Africans. Foreign powers can provide some support for them in this but they cannot fix their problems for them.

Like indigenous people in other extreme climatic areas maybe they just want to continue with their traditional way of life. Maybe they don't want a modern state with malls, Walmart, MacDonald's and Starbucks. No matter how backward we may think their lifestyle is maybe they like it just like that ... and are prepared to fight for it.

I never said that they did want those things. Some do and some probably do not. I can say say, however, that none of them want to watch their children starve because the extreme climate that they live in has become more extreme to the point that it is probably not life sustaining anymore.
I did meet Tuareg who wanted to continue their nomadic herding lifestyle but the grazing is so poor now that livestock are dying off faster than they can replace them. That is not sustainable.