Counter Terrorism (merged thread)

[davidbfpo]

A short commentary by John Raine, ex-UK diplomat now @ IISS; which is painful in places:

The territorial defeat of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, in Syria and Iraq marks a turning point in the international effort against terrorism. The long war against terrorism enters a new, but probably not its final, phase. The threat is mutating and diversifying. The Caliphate has dispersed but a global network of terrorists remains operational, including in European cities. Apparently isolated Individuals are acting on their own initiative, deriving inspiration and guidance from online. And a new potential threat is emerging from armed Shia groups who are enjoying a strategic momentum in the Middle East that could carry them into direct conflict with Israel, the Gulf states and the West. Terrorism has been and remains a part of their repertoire.
This reshaping of the terrorist threat is happening at a time when the international order is volatile. Collective political and security structures are under stress. The Gulf Cooperation Council, NATO and the European Union are all challenged by internal divisions and external threats. In addition, established powers, especially the United States, are recalibrating their global engagement while new powers (Russia and Turkey) are asserting themselves in counter-terrorism theatres such as the Middle East and Central Asia. Finding the common legal, political and cultural ground necessary for effective international coalitions is getting harder.
In this apparent disorder, how will the new terrorist challenges be met? What are the likely strategies of existing and emerging terrorist groups? What new forms of terrorism might emerge, where and with what targets? What changes will have to be made in national and international responses? And how will the international community deny terrorists influence over cyber domains? What strategies, compromises and coalitions will this require?

Link:https://www.iiss.org/en/events/event...-disorder-c0ee

Link to underlined link, which is a longer explanation:https://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voice...-disorder-61cf

[Bill Moore]

A short commentary by John Raine, ex-UK diplomat now @ IISS; which is painful in places:Link:https://www.iiss.org/en/events/event...-disorder-c0ee

Link to underlined link, which is a longer explanation:https://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voice...-disorder-61cf

David,

This is an important think piece in my view, the title "Terrorism and the New Disorder" is appropriate. As noted in numerous SWJ threads and other forums the international order is increasingly under stress by a number of actors and other factors, resulting increasingly in disorder.

The author correctly points out that the next wave of terrorism is brewing

at a time when the international order is volatile, and collective political and security structures are under stress.

Thus finding the necessary

common legal, political and cultural ground necessary for effective international coalitions is getting harder

.

A couple of other thoughts from the author I found helpful in shedding light on our collective ongoing challenge.

First, it appears state sponsored terrorism is making a come back, and unlike the Iranian proxies in the late 70s/early 80s, this breed of terrorists is battle hardened and very well trained. I doubt Iran will be the only sponsor, as noted by the Russians reportedly providing support to the Taliban as a sign of things to come in a world where state actors increasingly compete with one another.

Second, regarding the foreign fighter who returned home and others who may seek to fight, the author points out that terrorists are less united by structure than my meme. Add the internet to this equation and you a virus of the mind that will continue to spread globally. The West seeks to destroy terrorist organizations, because it comes the closest to their preferred way of war, but rushing to assign a group label to terrorists can be misleading.

[davidbfpo]

John Raine, IISS, has a new commentary; which opens with:

Cross-border terrorism shows no signs of abating, and the changing nature of the threat calls for new approaches. But what could hinder international cooperation? A year after the Westminster attack in London, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, has been dislodged from the majority of the territory it controlled. But the threat posed by ISIS and other groups across Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia persists. International cooperation has been the key to successes in countering terrorism, both recently and over the last 20 years, but as collective security comes under threat and terrorism morphs yet again, what should the new priorities be?

Link:https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2018/07/international-counter-terrorism-priorities?

[davidbfpo]

A commentary with several links on this vexed issue by a UK-based author.
Link:https://www.forbes.com/sites/nikitam.../#393f2c252c4d

[davidbfpo]

A short essay in Lawfare and the Editor's preamble:

Terrorist groups often draw on ethnic or religious brethren in other countries. These communities raise money, provide arms, offer volunteers, lobby host governments and otherwise try to advance the terrorist cause. James Piazza of The Pennsylvania State University goes deep on diasporas. He identifies the ways in which they make a terrorism problem worse and why fighting terrorism requires countering the influence of militant diasporas.

Link:https://www.lawfareblog.com/how-dias...rrorist-groups

[davidbfpo]

A short commentary by RUSI's Raffaello Pantucci and Mark Rowley, ex-UK top CT police officer. They open with:

Daesh, Al-Qa’ida and other terrorist organisations may appear to be in current retreat. But rather than being eradicated, they have scattered. The violent extremism they have spawned has not entirely disappeared and understanding how it might evolve is going to be a central preoccupation for security planners.

They end with:

This model of global Islamist terrorism with a cult-like ideology scattering and fostering independent mini-caliphates to grow will need constant effort to be effectively managed. The danger is that, just as some key Western governments are retreating from internationalism, new terrorist footholds will establish themselves, strengthen themselves and shock us. The surprise leaves us prone to overreaction that only exacerbates the problem. To counter terrorist threats, we need to not only fight them on the ground, but appreciate the reason why they have developed in the first place and calibrate our response appropriately. Only then will we be able to manage them effectively and guarantee our security.

Link:https://rusi.org/commentary/despite-...I6pn6o.twitter