Economics and Irregular Warfare

[Cavguy]

Wish I had more time to write.

This is what I have concluded about economic development from my personal experiences and two years at the COIN center, which doesn't all agree with theory. The key is to realize that all aid "takes a side" as you alter the power balances between communities, governments, families, and tribes. That well you just built may fundamentally alter a centuries old power dynamic.

You'll never get to the bottom of the 2d and 3d order effects in a society you are not a part of. Therefore, it is my opinion that $$ employed by tactical commanders must be transactional. Our temptation is to do good works. As some others have indicated, that's nice but not what a tactical commander should be doing. He should use it to gain influence with targeted groups and individuals critical to defeating the insurgency in that AO. The key part is that for such assistance you MUST get something tangible in return. That can take many forms - security force recruits, safe passage, governance participation, etc. But don't ever do a project HOPING it will "buy" goodwill. Analyze your AO, determine what populations or people you find most critical, and use your limited funds accordingly.

If you click on my sig and read about my experiences, you will see that money was employed tactically at those who were cooperating by providing security, information, and cooperation. Bottom line, good behavior rewarded, bad behavior - no $$ to your AO.

A good example was in Ramadi - instead of just doing good works and providing security with our forces, BG MacFarland made it transactional. In exchange for protection and aid they provided police recruits - half guarded the local area, and half were used elsewhere in the city as we needed. We also received guarantees of safe passage. Read the articles linked in my sig for more. Granted, this example was from Iraq, but I think that is one of the few non-location specific messages out of Ramadi. As Kilcullen says, giving the locals something without a return only gains their contempt, not cooperation. Some may sneer at it as bribery, but that's what CERP really is for anyway, no? Disguised as civil works, but at its essence a bribe to keep the population content? I guarantee it costs much less than an MRAP, Stryker, or the SGLI/medical care of dead soldiers. It may even have positive long term effects on the region and nation, if done right.

Bonus win if you can employ the $$ through local or national security forces. It doesn't matter so much what the Afghans think of you, only what they think of their own government.

Just random Sat night musings. I'll be more coherent tomorrow.