More Piracy Near Somalia

[Rex Brynen]

I personnaly believe that only a strong and total economical blockus over somalia would work. They tend to reject any decision, even from their own politicians. So why don't we drop the support to so called somali government and parliament, have an agressive sea blocus (no ship in or out the miles out of the coast), no fly zone, full land border closing (monitored by international forces), no direct aid, only droping (Since the time, they have competent people for everything there, including health) and let them be as they want it?

So we impose a complete economic blockade on 10 million Somalis in order to address the problem created by c1,000 active pirates (0.01% of the local population)? We do so even at the cost of aggravating Somalia's food insecurity and economic situation, with possibly tens of thousands preventable deaths as a result?

Collective punishment of civilian populations and blockades of the necessities of life have both been war crimes since WWII. Frankly, piracy seems a far cheaper cost to pay.

[M-A Lagrange]

Rex,

I know it's a radical and controvertial point of view!

The thing is that Somali domestic economy is not a heavy weight. And clearly, compare to the burden to try to solve the problem by forcing them to build something under/with foreign assistance, it might be cheaper and more productive. A little like when you lock 2 persons in a room saying: you'll be able to get out when you agree on something.

The issue is not just pirats. It's also weapon illegal trade, tobacco and drug smuggling, money laundry, terrorism support in central africa (please have a look at my RFI on this. Assistance needed.)... Piracy is just the top of the iceberg that is bothering the largest group of people, that's all.

My point is that not even 0,001% of the 10 million somalis have a say in politic at this point. Forcing them to settle the issue among them would force them to take in account the people wishes. Or may be not...

[motorfirebox]

I think nuking them would be less cruel and more likely to create order. (That's a comparison, not a suggestion.)

[JMA]

Hi Stan, JMA, David, Motorfirebox and Dayuhan,

I have a question for you Stan: what would be an African solution? As far as I know, somalis will not stop if you give them $, at contrary.
My experience in South Somalia tells me that part of the problem is the aid dependency problematic somali have been abble to turn round. As exemple, they were not maintaining infrastructures so they were making sure that international aid would keep coming. And they play that game on all sides: european, US, Arab league, Muslim charity...

I personnaly believe that only a strong and total economical blockus over somalia would work. They tend to reject any decision, even from their own politicians. So why don't we drop the support to so called somali government and parliament, have an agressive sea blocus (no ship in or out the miles out of the coast), no fly zone, full land border closing (monitored by international forces), no direct aid, only droping (Since the time, they have competent people for everything there, including health) and let them be as they want it?

We close hermetically the box for several years (Many over paid UN staff will loose their job but who really cares), send back all the politician home instate of having a so called somali parliament in Nairobi, sit and watch.
I'am pretty sure they would first protest and them once they get their ass kicked 2 or 3 times trying to force the blocus, would them start to thing about it in a constructive way. Look at Somaliland. They've been able to come with something which is not ideal but with whom you can actually deal with.

I'm saying so because it's a shared feeling among many people working on Somalia I know. Already too many books have been written on the fact that supporting somalia is creatting more problems than brings solution.
A cost comparaison has to be run but i'm not sure that it would be more expensive than keep on funding politician, fake government and aid.
BUt I might be a little too radical.

If you speak to the navy they think blockade. The problem is that it is and expensive activity and there will always be loopholes that will be exploited.

The current international problem is piracy. Everyone knows who and where the pirates are and where the ships and the hostages are being kept.

It is a task for the marines (US or Brit).

* take out the pirates and their ships.
* liberate the hostages (with as few casualties as possible)
* recover the pirated ships.
* destroy anything and everything that appears to be have been procured through the proceeds of piracy.

The internal issue relating to the UN imposed government and its war with Islamists/Al Shabab is a separate issue and as the government has no legitimacy is unwinable.

There are no sovereignty issues relating to this failed state.

[davidbfpo]

From the BBC Radio Four's 'From Our Correspondent' series:

When Somalian pirates are caught there is often nowhere to try them, as Somalia itself has little effective central government. But some have been tried and jailed in the breakaway territory of Somaliland.

Nothing startling, but the pirate's own words.

Link:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programme...nt/9522063.stm

[carl]

The following was posted on the Information Dissemination blog today. (http://www.informationdissemination.net/)

People have long asked where Somali pirates are getting all of their good intelligence from. They seem to know where the easy to hit ships will be, by name and all. There is ample evidence that Somali pirates are not working with Iran and they also do not appear to work in coordination with any Al Qaeda affiliated groups. One of the biggest questions that has popped up as a result of several different events over the last several months is how much influence and apparent connectivity ISI Chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha has with Somali pirate leaders. My sense is the relationship between Somali pirates and the ISI is the next big pirate story on the verge of busting into the media.

Lord in heaven, what's next?

[Stan]

Hey M-A !
My plan includes many of the things you, JMA and Dayuhan have provided. The only real twist when I say it's an Africa problem, is we don't get involved other than ensuring no vessel enters the Horn and your no fly zone. The remainder of Africa that depends on that sea traffic will take care of the pirates swiftly and violently (African style). As we the West can't bear to watch TV, there will further be a blockade on all news sources (nothing new in Somalia).

I also agree that we have played into their hands with aid. Cold turkey may not be very popular but I see no reasonable way out.

JMA's priorities need to be acted on as the blockade and no fly zone means dead and raped hostages and, well... we're back to the West watching TV

I have a question for you Stan: what would be an African solution? As far as I know, somalis will not stop if you give them $, at contrary.
My experience in South Somalia tells me that part of the problem is the aid dependency problematic somali have been abble to turn round. As exemple, they were not maintaining infrastructures so they were making sure that international aid would keep coming. And they play that game on all sides: european, US, Arab league, Muslim charity...

[davidbfpo]

Carl,

I know the world is full of surprises, but this suspected linkage is one and simply lacks credibility.

In an earlier post I referred to the open source and commercial sources for shipping information. I suspect that certain "middle men" are supplying the information for interception and Somalis are well known for their trading skills in the region - not piracy.

I recall the Somalis had no love for the Pakistanis during the early intervention; the killing of Pakistani soldiers pre-dated the 'Blackhawk Down' incident.

Where is the pay-off for ISI in such a trade?

[carl]

David:

This is the first I've heard of it, can't really comment on its validity and posted it mainly as a discussion point. If it is true there isn't anything those guys won't stoop to, and if it isn't true their past actions make it easy for people to believe there isn't anything they won't stoop too. I will say that Galrahn runs a pretty good blog and seems to know exactly what he is talking about as near as I can judge, which may not be very near.

The pay off for the ISI would be what it always is for the ISI, bug India and money. There was a twitter feed from Galrahn stating that 22 Somali pirates were caught recently just off the NW coast of India. That should bug them. The money, well the money.

Who the Somalis killed 20 years ago probably doesn't mean much to them if there is money to be made leading the pirate's life.

[omarali50]

The Somali story smells strange, but who knows.
The interesting question to me is whether there is any real rift between NATO and Pakistan? And whether GHQ is about to "win" in Afghanistan? Because if they are (with or without NATO's cooperation), its really really bad news for Pakistan. Primarily because such a victory would be terrible news for ordinary Afghans and then for ordinary Pakistanis (and eventually, for GHQ, but they may not see that yet). Then there is the secondary (and the in the greater scheme of things, relatively minor) issue of liberals hanging from lamp-posts...Pro-army websites make no secret of their expectations that after the US is driven out of the region, there will be a lot of lamp-posts with a lot of infidel agents hanging from them.
You can go to rupeenews to see what I mean.

[Dayuhan]

It is a task for the marines (US or Brit).

* take out the pirates and their ships.
* liberate the hostages (with as few casualties as possible)
* recover the pirated ships.
* destroy anything and everything that appears to be have been procured through the proceeds of piracy.

I would go along with that, except that the last stage might be better held until the rest are accomplished. I'd also prefer to see some action taken against financiers, ransom collectors, and other industry beneficiaries that may not be located in the pirate-dominated areas. That would be intel-dependent of course.

That would be a large and complex operation, of course, given the number of ships involved. I wouldn't want to comment on the nature of the complications or the possible ways of overcoming them, as there are many here who know far more about such things.

It struck me as an off thought that if something like that were being planned, it might be worth an effort to significantly raise patrol levels (trying to reduce the number of new ships taken) and accelerate some of the ransom payments. Not that paying ransom is ever a good idea, but anything that would reduce the total number of targets would make a simultaneous recovery less complex. Again, I'd defer to those who know more... not that I expect anything of the sort to happen any time soon!

Again, I have to think this will go on until the pirates see that the cost and risk of piracy exceed the reward. That means imposing coasts and risks.

[JMA]

I would go along with that, except that the last stage might be better held until the rest are accomplished. I'd also prefer to see some action taken against financiers, ransom collectors, and other industry beneficiaries that may not be located in the pirate-dominated areas. That would be intel-dependent of course.

I suggest the commander will be given priorities and subject to a few factors on the ground would probably attempt to "secure" the hostages first (accepting that this will be more difficult if the hostages are dispersed at the first whiff of an operation). Give the commander the mission with any limitations then let him (and his staff) get on with the planning and the operation themselves (without interference).

As to tracking down and getting hold of the various "Mr Bigs" sitting in safe places - yes a separate exercise. A parallel exercise by the CIA or Interpol but not a task for the marines other than their feeding in the intel they may pick up on the ground.

That would be a large and complex operation, of course, given the number of ships involved. I wouldn't want to comment on the nature of the complications or the possible ways of overcoming them, as there are many here who know far more about such things.

Maybe not. Let the marines figure it out. Smart guys may well find a smart way of executing the mission.

It struck me as an off thought that if something like that were being planned, it might be worth an effort to significantly raise patrol levels (trying to reduce the number of new ships taken) and accelerate some of the ransom payments. Not that paying ransom is ever a good idea, but anything that would reduce the total number of targets would make a simultaneous recovery less complex. Again, I'd defer to those who know more... not that I expect anything of the sort to happen any time soon!

Yea, leave it to the marines.

Again, I have to think this will go on until the pirates see that the cost and risk of piracy exceed the reward. That means imposing coasts and risks.

And what would that the cost and risk tipping points be?

[Dayuhan]

And what would that the cost and risk tipping points be?

We don't know. We add risk and cost to their equation until they stop, then we know. Of course as long as they hold hostages it's hard to do that, which brings us full circle.

I'd like to see a mass raid aimed at recovering all ships and hostages now held... but I'm not holding my breath waiting for it.

[JMA]

We don't know. We add risk and cost to their equation until they stop, then we know. Of course as long as they hold hostages it's hard to do that, which brings us full circle.

I'd like to see a mass raid aimed at recovering all ships and hostages now held... but I'm not holding my breath waiting for it.

Look I'd have to do my homework on Somalia (to see where it differs from the Africa I know) but I suggest that they are pretty "old testament" in their approach to life. Let that be the point of departure.

Neither the US nor any European (as in geography) country will apply the death sentence on the pirates. So one needs to look for a proxy state (that will) to agree to try any captured pirates. Yes, it may require the incentive of an aid grant/bribe/call it what you like to get it off the ground.

So as not to place the current hostages under further risk this (kangaroo) legal process should come into effect after the current hostages are released/freed and automatically applied to any piracy actions after the operation we speak of.

I recently saw a documentary on the deployment of a Brit naval vessel on anti-piracy duties off Somalia. They came across this skiff way out to sea which had run out of petrol and on approach found neither weapons not fishing gear on board. They took the two Somalis on board fed them, clothed them and gave them a medical check up and delivered them to a point in sight of the coast where they were released in their skiff with enough petrol/water/food to make it home safely. Contrary to those with negative colonial memories the Brits are really jolly nice chaps. Little wonder the pirates are laughing all the way to the bank on this one.

Yes, sadly it is not going to happen.

But I would like the US marines to do the planning and via the Pentagon get it presented to the President as another electioneering stunt with great potential. He might even buy it.

[carl]

Here is an interesting story I found over at Information Dissemination. They seem to have a lot of those.

http://www.livemint.com/2011/07/0820...recks.html?h=B

It is about the life of the seaman kidnapped by pirates from the area that used to be the country of Somalia. About what you would expect from criminal teenagers. They torture, starve, beat and sometimes kill the seaman. That is what criminals do to people they control. Good clean fun you see.

[davidbfpo]

Current head of the Royal Marines and Operation Commander of EUNAVFOR, Buster Howes discussed current piracy trends and how EUNAVFOR is seeking to counter the ongoing threat. While the drivers for piracy remain on land, the force has been tasked with limiting the effects of piracy on international commerce in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

With a podcast just over an hour long, about to listen to so no review yet:http://www.iiss.org/events-calendar/...ons-effective/

[AdamG]

Interesting perspective from the bad guys' side.

Reading music

Jay Bahadur’s plan was simple. Fly to Somalia to cover the March 2009 elections in Somaliland as a freelancer, then come home to Toronto and hopefully find a job in journalism.

He studied Somalia a bit as an undergrad at the University of Toronto, and after graduating in 2007 he enrolled in a freelance journalism course; he figured he could work the trip into the class somehow.

Things did not go according to plan — but, in retrospect, they probably couldn’t have worked out better. For a class assignment on how to pitch freelance stories, Mr. Bahadur assembled an idea — to embed with the pirates of Somalia — and handed in his homework. It was October 2008. He left for Africa in January 2009. And today, he is on tour promoting his debut non-fiction book, Pirates of Somalia.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/07...little-piracy/

Globe & Mail review

NPR interview

and the author's blog
http://jaybahadur.blogspot.com/

Mod's Note: See also Post 621 on an earlier post on the author and book.

[AdamG]

Interesting perspective from the bad guys' side.

Reading music

Jay Bahadur’s plan was simple. Fly to Somalia to cover the March 2009 elections in Somaliland as a freelancer, then come home to Toronto and hopefully find a job in journalism.

He studied Somalia a bit as an undergrad at the University of Toronto, and after graduating in 2007 he enrolled in a freelance journalism course; he figured he could work the trip into the class somehow.

Things did not go according to plan — but, in retrospect, they probably couldn’t have worked out better. For a class assignment on how to pitch freelance stories, Mr. Bahadur assembled an idea — to embed with the pirates of Somalia — and handed in his homework. It was October 2008. He left for Africa in January 2009. And today, he is on tour promoting his debut non-fiction book, Pirates of Somalia.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/07...little-piracy/

Globe & Mail review

NPR interview

and the author's blog
http://jaybahadur.blogspot.com/

Mod's Note: See also Post 621 on the main thread for Somali Piracy:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=5621

[Dayuhan]

Interesting perspective from the bad guys' side.

Telling comment:

“But the truth is that fishing was never a big part of the Somali economy; it was seen as ignoble and very few of them actually had their livelihoods destroyed. The early fisher-pirates simply realized that going after commercial ships worked; it made money.”

[davidbfpo]

Found via an observer of such things:

This videotape shows Russian Navy commandos on a Somalian pirate ship shortly after the pirates had captured a Russian oil tanker. The Euro Union navy that patrols these waters would not interfere because they feared there could be casualties.

All explanations are in Russian with a single exception of when a wounded pirate says something in English. All conversations between the commandos are in Russian. If you don't understand Russian, the pictures speak for themselves.

The soldiers freed their compatriots and the tanker. The Russian Navy Commandos moved the pirates back to their own (pirate) ship, searched the pirate ship for weapons and explosives, and then they left the ship and exploded it with all remaining pirates hand-cuffed to it.

The commandos sank the pirate ship along with the pirates and without any court proceedings, lawyers etc. That is, they used the anti-piracy laws of the 18th and 19th centuries where the captain of the rescuing ship has the right to decide what to do with the pirates. Usually, they were hung.

Link to video:http://true-turtle.livejournal.com/85315.html