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Thread: Syria in 2017 (April-December)

  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    CrowBat...anything on this development since last night?

    BREAKING: Opposition source tells Rudaw reporter that Turkish army will be deployed tonight to Syria's Idlib to enforce de-escalation zones

    Lots of chatter that #Turkey is considering interfering in #Idlib in order to separate opposition forces from #HTS - as per #Astana plan.

    Concurrently, rumor is rife in #Idlib that #HTS may be preparing for attacks on Faylaq al-Sham, the most powerful FSA group in area.

    Tensions between #HTS & the opposition have been constant since Jan '17 - but intensified lately as FSA groups consider unity/ops room.

    Depending on substance of rumors, #HTS may pre-emptively attack potential threats (again); or build tensions enough to deter #Turkey.
    Idlib: If #Turkey would enter #Idlib Province, the Turkish army would come with 1000s of soldiers and dozens of main battle tanks.

    So, if you see only 30 soldiers and 2 tanks at the Turkish - Syrian border, it's clear that they will not enter "in the coming hours".
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-07-2017 at 04:20 PM.

  2. #122
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    Western media: "#Syria|n ceasefire crumbles. #Assad regime bombs rebels and advances despite #ceasefire." Oh really. Big surprise.

    Hama: Pro-#Assad forces shelling Northern #Hama with 100s of Grad rockets and artillery shells today.

    Hama: 40+ heavy #Assad/#Russia|n airstrikes on Northern #Hama since the morning. Pro-#Assad forces trying to capture #Zilaqiat village.

    Damascus: #Assad Republican Guard Colonel was badly wounded by a rebel sniper in besieged #Qaboun today.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-07-2017 at 04:27 PM.

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    Damascus: Rebels destroyed another armoured #Assad vehicle in besieged #Qaboun today.

    Hama: Rebels have killed #Assad Brigadier General Yahya Baloush near #Zilaqiat village in Northern #Hama. He was from #Jableh, #Latakia.

    Hama: Rebels blowing up #Assad regime technical with #TOW in Northern #Hama today.

    Daraa: Rebels and #ISIS shelling each other in Western #Daraa since weeks. Both sides erected huge earth walls.

  4. #124
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    New map for N. #Hama: on second day of "de-escalation zones" Regime seized over #Zilaqiat CP from Rebels.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  5. #125
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    That's rich, considering I have posted reports from...
    Well, the sarcast in me would like to say that posting links is not the same like reading their content, and reading means anything else than 'automatically' understanding the content, 'too'.

    But OK. So, you've posted such links, citing realities about the Russian military - but then went to extension to plaster me with posts about what kind of military miracles could Russia pull in the case of the US + allies declaring an aerial blockade of Syria, back in 2013...?

    You know, you're free to call what I did in response to your posts - 'sniping'. But, you'll also have to admit (foremost to yourself), that

    a) you didn't read carefully what I wrote about an aerial blockade of Syria (obvious alone by the fact you came back talking about 'no-fly zones' etc.), and

    b) your reaction to misunderstanding what I wrote in this regards, and making you aware of your misunderstanding

    ...was, from my POV, only comparable with an 'artillery barrage'.

    ...but don't forget that you're spending your time setting up strawmen and talking past one another, even whilst skipping and holding hands. Russia has "won" in Ukraine, in Syria, the U.S. and France, don't you know?
    Beg your pardon: is the war in Ukraine over? The one in Syria?

    I didn't follow the news the last two days, so want to make sure: you, namely, are now explaining that they are - and that Russia 'won'.

    Lastly, I don't know how they do things in Austria, Iran or Syria, but usually the man that leaves the field of battle first doesn't snipe at the man that stays.
    Why not? Your troops control the battlefield I've left for the lack of time; so, as your technical teams are collecting all the equipment left behind, my snipers are sniping at them. Where's the problem about that?

    Should you consider that 'unfair', I'll be happy to add a few air strikes too. ;-)

  6. #126
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    New map for N. #Hama: on second day of "de-escalation zones" Regime seized over #Zilaqiat CP from Rebels.
    Is that confirmed? Just read some report stressing such claims were premature and the fourth assault was beaten back.

    EDIT: even more so since the FSyA should've killed Yahya Baloush, one of 'brigade commanders' of (whatever was left of) 4th Division (seems, this was a TOW-shot).
    Last edited by CrowBat; 05-07-2017 at 05:00 PM.

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    The tone here has changed of late, with words like 'sniping' and 'that's rich'. Is that really necessary? Please remember others read the forums and it is very likely the tone discourages them from contributing.
    Acknowledged, David.

    I would certainly like others to contribute here as it sometimes feels as though it is a very select few's show. I've tried to argue the ideas rather than the person, but after getting inundated with responses such as -

    • You don't get it
    • Reread x
    • Listen to y
    • Attend Frunze or WestPoint
    • You didn't serve in Vietnam, so how can you know x
    • You didn't serve in Iraq, so how can you know y

    - I can only conclude that we are debating the person rather than the idea.

    And it is annoying that when someone cannot refute your argument, that they ignore you and then re-emerge to gang-up and take potshots. I'm sure you've read enough of my commentary that you can tell what points I've actually made and what points of mine have been twisted into strawmen.

    Apologies for losing my cool.

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    Default To CrowBat RE: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    Well, the sarcast in me would like to say that posting links is not the same like reading their content, and reading means anything else than 'automatically' understanding the content, 'too'.
    Do you mean something like this?


    You do realize that there are various threads on the Russian military and on Russia's war in Ukraine at SWC, right? My opinions on Russian capabilities, with or without supporting analysis, are documented there as far back as 2014.

    Yet I have never asserted that I am right about Russia. What I have attempted to do is counter those claims that Russia is as weak as she was in the late 1990s and early 2000s, as well as those that she is quite strong.

    What I can say for sure is that I know popular perceptions of Russia's capabilities are invariably outdated and tilted toward extremes. I also know that Russia has improved markedly since the First Chechen War, and steadily from 2nd Chechnya to Georgia to Ukraine and Syria.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    But OK. So, you've posted such links, citing realities about the Russian military - but then went to extension to plaster me with posts about what kind of military miracles could Russia pull in the case of the US + allies declaring an aerial blockade of Syria, back in 2013...?
    Not at all. What I am arguing is intentions, and what you are arguing is capabilities.

    You will note that I have asserted before in threads on Syria that Turkey could on its own: turn the Black Sea into a NATO "lake"; impose a no-fly zone in Syria; and neutralize those Russian forces in Syria. So why doesn't Ankara opt for this? Well, we both know why...

    The issue is not one of a "military miracle" but of political will. Does the Kremlin have the political will to fly through a U.S. aerial blockade? Does the White House have the political will to shoot down a Russian aircraft in Syrian airspace?

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    You know, you're free to call what I did in response to your posts - 'sniping'. But, you'll also have to admit (foremost to yourself), that

    a) you didn't read carefully what I wrote about an aerial blockade of Syria (obvious alone by the fact you came back talking about 'no-fly zones' etc.), and

    b) your reaction to misunderstanding what I wrote in this regards, and making you aware of your misunderstanding

    ...was, from my POV, only comparable with an 'artillery barrage'.
    From my POV, you were deliberately twisting what I had written. To refer back to the Berlin Airlift, the U.S. and U.K. were hopelessly weaker than their adversary and had no capability to lift the blockade by force. They won the battle of wills despite having no capabilities and without firing a shot in anger.

    In August 2013, Russia had only an unused dock at Tartus and additional security at its embassy in Damascus. Therefore, from the Russian perspective, there would have been little to distinguish an aerial blockade from a no-fly zone, as their aircraft were not in theater yet. Either way, the battle of political wills is the same whether Russian aircraft are violating a NFZ or a blockade. While Turkey and Jordan could be expected to close their airspace to Russian military aircraft, I find it doubtful that Iran, Iraq and Lebanon would do likewise, much less back up the closure with force. Moreover, there is the Mediterranean to consider...

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    Beg your pardon: is the war in Ukraine over? The one in Syria? I didn't follow the news the last two days, so want to make sure: you, namely, are now explaining that they are - and that Russia 'won'.
    Well, perhaps before declaring solidarity with some contributors to argue against other contributors, you should do some due diligence as to their views, which are "plastered" all over SWC and SWJ.

    Here is a relevant example for you:

    THEY [the Ivans] are in fact holding Syria together, together with Iran...they hold now permanent bases long term in Syria/Med and are positioned solidly on the NATO southern flank the last time I checked…they have built A2AD bubbles in the ME and sit next to Israel and they are allowing advanced weapons to flow via Iran to Hezbollah...
    There must be so many IDF pilots with liquefied bowels that there is now a readiness problem...

    I can't imagine how the Porter and Ross were able to get away with striking Shayrat, but I know that your expertise is in regards to the air, so I'll let others answer how the U.S. Navy, with their pitiful Harpoons (if even) and Tomahawks were able to pierce the dreaded bubble...
    Last edited by Azor; 05-07-2017 at 06:33 PM.

  9. #129
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    Default To Outlaw 09 RE: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Let's see...if I currently check Russian non-linear efforts....and even if they are basically hanging on in Syria....THEY are in fact holding Syria together, together with Iran...they hold now permanent bases long term in Syria/Med and are positioned solidly on the NATO southern flank the last time I checked…they have built A2AD bubbles in the ME and sit next to Israel and they are allowing advanced weapons to flow via Iran to Hezbollah...they hold eastern Ukraine and will not leave there...they massively interfered in the US election and yesterday in France and are starting to in Germany.
    Pardon me, but A2/AD “bubbles”?

    There are bubbles and there are bubbles. There are the large bubbles one finds in Prosecco and the tiny bubbles one finds in Veuve Clicquot. I thought that the dreaded S-300 and S-400 had been put to bed, including by CrowBat, among others. I had thought wrong.

    If Russia is knowingly providing advanced weapons to Hezbollah, either directly or indirectly, then why allow Israel to intervene in Syrian airspace and attack Iranian or Syrian shipments to Hezbollah?

    How is Russia “positioned solidly” on NATO’s southern flank, if it had to cannibalize the Western and Southern Military Districts merely to have a presence in the eastern Mediterranean? Should NATO not rejoice that more assets are facing Turkey rather than the weak Baltic republics or Poland or Romania?

    The Russians may well leave Donbas, but they will not leave Crimea.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    So when you get ready to actually "accept" ground reality and that is exactly what CrowBat and I attempt to show you...you are off base with your comments...
    What “ground reality”? You and CrowBat differ widely on Russian capabilities…

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Sniping...strange comment for someone who basically repackages our comments and then cut and pastes their comments...that is really easy to do.
    I already explained that I do that for brevity and clarity. I paste your entire comments into Word and then start from there. Shall I screenshot it for you?

    Nor do I ignore those comments I agree with, as I will respond with “agreed”.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Seriously take the recent PKK posting say from Orton...take CrowBat's...comments on the PKK and then take Trump/CENTCOM/SOF comments on PKK and THEN tell me we do not have a serious FP breakdown in the Trump rush to "eradicate IS from the face of the earth"...
    U.S. policies in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and now Syria have never struck me as being good long-term strategies, but I do understand why the U.S. has taken these courses of action, even if I believe that they are marches to folly. Unfortunately, the prosecution of wars abroad tend to be influenced by the vagaries of politics at home, and this is especially true of small wars of choice.

    It may well be the PKK and PYD that lose out in the end. The amount of materiel provided to the YPG is not sufficient to make a difference in the Turkish-Kurdish conflict, and if the PYD decides that the liberation of Turkish Kurds is a priority, they will be vulnerable to the Sunni, Shia and Christian Arabs alike in “Rojava”.

    Kurdish independence is a threat to Baghdad, Damascus and Teheran as much as it is to Ankara, and however much Washington and Moscow find them useful for a variety of reasons, neither has an incentive to father an independent "Kurdistan". Washington already has a de facto Kurdish state in northern Iraq that both it and Ankara are comfortable with. Nor have I seen any evidence that Assad is feeling particularly magnanimous towards his Kurdish subjects.

  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Pardon me, but A2/AD “bubbles”?

    There are bubbles and there are bubbles. There are the large bubbles one finds in Prosecco and the tiny bubbles one finds in Veuve Clicquot. I thought that the dreaded S-300 and S-400 had been put to bed, including by CrowBat, among others. I had thought wrong.

    If Russia is knowingly providing advanced weapons to Hezbollah, either directly or indirectly, then why allow Israel to intervene in Syrian airspace and attack Iranian or Syrian shipments to Hezbollah?

    How is Russia “positioned solidly” on NATO’s southern flank, if it had to cannibalize the Western and Southern Military Districts merely to have a presence in the eastern Mediterranean? Should NATO not rejoice that more assets are facing Turkey rather than the weak Baltic republics or Poland or Romania?

    The Russians may well leave Donbas, but they will not leave Crimea.



    What “ground reality”? You and CrowBat differ widely on Russian capabilities…



    I already explained that I do that for brevity and clarity. I paste your entire comments into Word and then start from there. Shall I screenshot it for you?

    Nor do I ignore those comments I agree with, as I will respond with “agreed”.



    U.S. policies in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and now Syria have never struck me as being good long-term strategies, but I do understand why the U.S. has taken these courses of action, even if I believe that they are marches to folly. Unfortunately, the prosecution of wars abroad tend to be influenced by the vagaries of politics at home, and this is especially true of small wars of choice.

    It may well be the PKK and PYD that lose out in the end. The amount of materiel provided to the YPG is not sufficient to make a difference in the Turkish-Kurdish conflict, and if the PYD decides that the liberation of Turkish Kurds is a priority, they will be vulnerable to the Sunni, Shia and Christian Arabs alike in “Rojava”.

    Kurdish independence is a threat to Baghdad, Damascus and Teheran as much as it is to Ankara, and however much Washington and Moscow find them useful for a variety of reasons, neither has an incentive to father an independent "Kurdistan". Washington already has a de facto Kurdish state in northern Iraq that both it and Ankara are comfortable with. Nor have I seen any evidence that Assad is feeling particularly magnanimous towards his Kurdish subjects.
    You are all over the map stay on the thread....
    They have in fact already fathered a Kurdish state of you check the area under PKK control....and it sits exactly on the border does it not to Turkey AWAY from Damascus and Iran and actually the rest of Iraq....

    Russia will not ever leave will Donbass...not sure where you get your info...if anything changes...they are preparing to truly blame Girkin for the invasion into eastern Ukraine but that is about how far they will go.

    Reference Russia actions inside Syria...not sure what you mean by cannibalizing anything...with ease they have deployed a strong BDE plus and the rest is being backfilled with PMUs and Spetsnaz and they seem to be expanding Assad's area nicely the last time I checked....and if they are in Kurdish Afrin THEN they sit on the NATO southern flank.... CAN they still hit the broadside of a barn with a bomb not they cannot...are they getting a heck of a lot of flying time for their pilots yes they..... are they getting combat ground time in both eastern Ukraine and Syria for their Spetsnaz units...hell yes...

    Actually I might not be so different than CrowBat on his Russian estimates...we just differ on the tactics they are employing....

    Concerning A2AD...anything that flies...carries a warhead and has a seeking guidance system is an inherent threat to AC....regardless of range...it still is a A2Ad threat to incoming AC that has to be suppressed.....

    Ask the USAF how many AC got shot down over NVN by the older SAM2/3s being fired in barrages as a way to defeat US SEAD abilities...

  11. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Do you mean something like this?


    You do realize that there are various threads on the Russian military and on Russia's war in Ukraine at SWC, right? My opinions on Russian capabilities, with or without supporting analysis, are documented there as far back as 2014.

    Yet I have never asserted that I am right about Russia. What I have attempted to do is counter those claims that Russia is as weak as she was in the late 1990s and early 2000s, as well as those that she is quite strong.

    What I can say for sure is that I know popular perceptions of Russia's capabilities are invariably outdated and tilted toward extremes. I also know that Russia has improved markedly since the First Chechen War, and steadily from 2nd Chechnya to Georgia to Ukraine and Syria.



    Not at all. What I am arguing is intentions, and what you are arguing is capabilities.

    You will note that I have asserted before in threads on Syria that Turkey could on its own: turn the Black Sea into a NATO "lake"; impose a no-fly zone in Syria; and neutralize those Russian forces in Syria. So why doesn't Ankara opt for this? Well, we both know why...

    The issue is not one of a "military miracle" but of political will. Does the Kremlin have the political will to fly through a U.S. aerial blockade? Does the White House have the political will to shoot down a Russian aircraft in Syrian airspace?



    From my POV, you were deliberately twisting what I had written. To refer back to the Berlin Airlift, the U.S. and U.K. were hopelessly weaker than their adversary and had no capability to lift the blockade by force. They won the battle of wills despite having no capabilities and without firing a shot in anger.

    In August 2013, Russia had only an unused dock at Tartus and additional security at its embassy in Damascus. Therefore, from the Russian perspective, there would have been little to distinguish an aerial blockade from a no-fly zone, as their aircraft were not in theater yet. Either way, the battle of political wills is the same whether Russian aircraft are violating a NFZ or a blockade. While Turkey and Jordan could be expected to close their airspace to Russian military aircraft, I find it doubtful that Iran, Iraq and Lebanon would do likewise, much less back up the closure with force. Moreover, there is the Mediterranean to consider...



    Well, perhaps before declaring solidarity with some contributors to argue against other contributors, you should do some due diligence as to their views, which are "plastered" all over SWC and SWJ.

    Here is a relevant example for you:



    There must be so many IDF pilots with liquefied bowels that there is now a readiness problem...

    I can't imagine how the Porter and Ross were able to get away with striking Shayrat, but I know that your expertise is in regards to the air, so I'll let others answer how the U.S. Navy, with their pitiful Harpoons (if even) and Tomahawks were able to pierce the dreaded bubble...
    BTW you cannot export intentions unless you have capabilities is an old saying...

    Not at all. What I am arguing is intentions, and what you are arguing is capabilities.
    Russia has in fact shown the ability to sustain her field army and AF in Syria which has actually surprised many....and even "surged when needed".....

    Are their capabilities close to the US heck no...but they are learning and that is a problem in the end....

    If you look at their recent series of massive snap exercises TOGETHER with their combat ops in Syria and eastern Ukraine they can field an attack force of 150,000 in first line units in literally hours and NATO or the US???

    What 1-1.5 BDES at the most in days.....

  12. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Acknowledged, David.

    I would certainly like others to contribute here as it sometimes feels as though it is a very select few's show. I've tried to argue the ideas rather than the person, but after getting inundated with responses such as -

    • You don't get it
    • Reread x
    • Listen to y
    • Attend Frunze or WestPoint
    • You didn't serve in Vietnam, so how can you know x
    • You didn't serve in Iraq, so how can you know y

    - I can only conclude that we are debating the person rather than the idea.

    And it is annoying that when someone cannot refute your argument, that they ignore you and then re-emerge to gang-up and take potshots. I'm sure you've read enough of my commentary that you can tell what points I've actually made and what points of mine have been twisted into strawmen.

    Apologies for losing my cool.
    Then answer the critical issue right now...the US failed Kurdish FP that will lead to a coming decade of violence in the ME...which has been posted in depth.....

    It is serious and will haunt the US in the future..but hey TLAMs seem to be the Trump answer...

  13. #133
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Azor,
    it's perfectly possible there is a ton of threads on the Russian military, Ukraine etc. elsewhere around the SWC, but sorry: got no time to follow them (too). I primarily come here to 'follow' the SCW, scan news to check if I've missed something important, and - occasionally - comment.

    Furthermore, I'm nowhere near as sophisticated as you think I am and often fail to be as direct as I would prefer to be.

    Therefore, all I've got to gauge about you is what you post in this thread.

    In this, and therefore in the case of our ongoing exchange (and this will certainly be my final post to this topic, no matter whether you understand, accept, or fail to understand, or disagree with it, because I've really got no time for this any more), I can only conclude that it was you who 'misread/misunderstood' my ideas re. aerial blockade of Syria - combined with other, non-military sort of measures.

    As of 2013, even Iran was in no position to widen its military intervention in Syria: it was out of money and under severe economic embargo. Even if, any widening of its military intervention in Syria would've set on all the possible alarm bells in the West. Russia was neither politically nor militarily in capacity to launch an intervention there - especially not if the West would've announced an aerial blockade of Syria.

    In this way, the West could've prevented an incredibly big flow of events that happened ever since.

    I see this as better confirmed and substantiated nowadays than ever before. In this regards, no 'critique' and no argumentation from you is going to change my opinion.

    What happened instead was that Oblabla's foreign policy, which can be easily summarized as 'I can't see further than the tip of my nose, but I'm so damn smarter than everybody else... therefore: what's going on in Syria has no direct or indirect impact upon the West, and is of nobody's interest... while selling a few hundreds of airliners to Iran and reserving a place in history for me are of far higher national interests for the USA'.

    Result: Iranian Nuclear Treaty - a honourable intention, all provided there would be a consequent and meaningful way of controlling its fulfilment - and a 'carte blanche' for Iran to do in Syria whatever it wants to do.

    And the first thing Iran did was to call Russia to join the party.

    I.e. the Russian military intervention in Syria became possible only because the USA have officially granted permission for an Iranian military intervention in Syria. And Putin then skillfully exploited the situation to go scoring PR-points on domestic and international plan too - for reasons and perfectly in sense of what Christoper Caldwell explained here: How to Think of Vladimir Putin.

    So, and if that's important to you, you've got my agreement: there was 'no political will' in the West.

    However, much more worrisome in this regards is that this 'no political will' remains valid until today. There was and there remains, a complete, massive, indeed gigantic failure to understand the consequences of Oblabla's decisions. And this failure is exploited by Putler - with far-reaching consequences (including a complete destabilisation of his primary 'enemy' - the EU through increasing the flow of refugees and bolstering chauvinism; Brexit; outcome of US elections of 2016, etc., etc., etc.).

    This, however, was outside the scope of what I could have known as of 2013, and then also outside the scope of 'my topic', which is 'military'. And in this regards: the fact was, is/remains, and is going to remain that, even as of today, in 2017, Russia would have no - I repeat to emphasise: 0/zero - _military capability_ to breach or even circumnavigate an aerial blockade of Syria, if this would be declared by US + allies (whether true or only perceived).

    Indeed, I would go as far as to say: even Putler would have no political will to try breaching that blockade - if this would be imposed (obvious by the fact that his bombers are taking a much longer route via Iran and Iraq, instead of cutting corners via Turkey when underway to Syria).

    Just: that's never going to happen, because there is no political will in the West to do anything at all about Syria: instead, we're abandoning - even demonizing - traditional allies; ignoring consequences of such politics for our own well-being etc., all of this for few short-sighted ideas related to economic interests of few people.

    Indeed, in this regards, our governments continue behaving in similar fashion like our media: while scientists are warning that the destruction of Earth is coming forward at such a pace that it's going to become uninhabitable within less than 100 years, this is entirely ignored and the media is full of 'news' about backsides and high-heels of various celebrities...

  14. #134
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Confirmed: Russian Beriyev A-50 SRDLO (AWACS) Deployed in Syria

    As announced on 29 April this year, a photo surfaced in the social media showing a Beriyev A-50 SRDLO (Russian for 'early warning and airborne control system', i.e. AWACS), indicating a possible first deployment ever of this type in Syria.

    Now there is a confirmation for this in form of Israeli satellite photos.

    Gauging by what little can be seen on photos that became available so far (foremost its dark grey livery), the aircraft in question belongs to one of three examples known to have been upgraded to its latest, A-50U variant.

    This is a mid-life upgrade of the original A-50, introducing the Shmel-M operational system, which is capable of detecting and tracking up to 150 targets (instead of 45 of the original version) out to a range of 600km, thanks to introduction of new, solid-state, digital computers (instead of old systems from 1980s).

    (Note: regardless what is stated in that article about supposed deployment of an A-50 to Syria back in '2015', such rumours appeared in the public actually in February 2016, but were never confirmed; this is the first confirmed deployment.)

    What does such a deployment mean?

    1.) Russians are now using 'even' the civilian terminal of Hmemmem Air Base, i.e. Basel al-Assad Airport for military purposes (then the A-50 was photographed while parked on this side of the airport);

    2.) Russians have concluded they need a much better control of Syrian airspace than provided by their 'super turbo' S-300 and S-400 SAMs - especially so for operations over northern and eastern Syria (most of which were outside their radar range so far); and

    3.) in the light of complete Western ignorance of developments in Syria, the Russians are free to further intensify their military intervention in the country.
    Last edited by CrowBat; 05-08-2017 at 06:54 AM.

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    Default To OUTLAW 09 RE: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    You are all over the map...
    It seems that “all over the map” is your new de jour critique. Could it be that the famous “but wait” is being retired? Certainly the numerous exaggerated ellipses aren’t in danger of disappearing, are they?

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    …stay on the thread...
    I can only assume that the lingering sting of the yellow card is behind the recent flurry of ad hominem.

    Which part of my reply to you had nothing to do with either the Syria thread in general, or your original comment(s) in particular?

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    They have in fact already fathered a Kurdish state of you check the area under PKK control....and it sits exactly on the border does it not to Turkey AWAY from Damascus and Iran and actually the rest of Iraq...
    The Americans and Russians have "fathered" a Kurdish state as much as the Iranians fathered a Houthi one in Yemen. The Syrian Kurds only became local allies of the Coalition because they had mostly stayed out of the Syrian Civil War and fought primarily against Daesh. The Syrian Kurds filled the vacuum left by Assad’s intelligent withdrawal from indefensible areas of Syria: Sunni Arab areas in the east and center, and Kurdish areas in the north. For all of the ideological and organizational ties between the PKK and PYD, I have seen no evidence of YPG fighters and/or arms crossing into Turkey. Thus far, the YPG seems to be biding its time: avoiding confronting Turkey, and staying focused on consolidating "Rojava" and preserving ties with the U.S. Lastly, the political arrangements of “Rojava” do leave something to be desired, however, there is a significant degree of local governance, including by non-Kurds and non-Muslims,

    Donbas is a drain for Russia. It is useful as a spoiler like Transnistria, but will not be annexed in the way of South Ossetia or Abkhazia, much less like Crimea, which was absorbed as a federal subject.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    ...with ease they [Russians] have deployed a strong BDE plus and the rest is being backfilled with PMUs and Spetsnaz and they seem to be expanding Assad's area nicely the last time I checked...
    For the operations in Donbas, Russia created ad hoc BTGs from elements of units across the length and breadth of Russia. This was not so much to spread the combat experience around, but because of readiness issues, as Philip Karber detailed in his ORBAT to CSIS in 2014. Then, Russia deployed elements of these BTGs to Syria to participate in pro-Assad offensives. These developments, as well as the rather meaningless reactivation of old armored divisions, seems to corroborate the constant refrain from Austin Bay and James Dunnigan from StrategyPage, who have argued that Russia only has around 100,000 well-trained and equipped ground troops, and these include regular forces and special forces, as well as paramilitary units in the new National Guard that were formerly under the MOI. Various contributors at SWC have also kept track of the various transfers between the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets as well as the naval presence in the Mediterranean.

    Mercenaries played a key role in U.S.-led occupations od Afghanistan and Iraq, but the bribed degenerates in Donbas aside, Russia has yet to field a comparable mercenary force to the U.S. (more than 100,000) or Iran (more than 30,000). Note that estimates of U.S. contractors deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq during the 2006-2010 period ranged from 130,000 to 160,000 according to the Congressional Research Service. By comparison, there are perhaps 200 to 400 Russian mercenaries in Syria.

    Assad is safe from being overrun but is far from being able to retake the country. Despite facing only one serious adversary, the FSA, no active threat from the YPG or Daesh, and infighting between Daesh, HTS and the FSA. Obviously 30,000 to 40,000 foreign regulars and irregulars combined with a ~100,000-strong Syrian NDF are not enough to defeat the FSA despite their numerical superiority on paper...

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Actually I might not be so different than CrowBat on his Russian estimates...we just differ on the tactics they are employing...
    I’m glad that the two of you have put bromance before differences of opinion. It demonstrates a high degree of emotional maturity and puts your relationship on a solid footing…

    Firstly, you have claimed that Russia “now” has “permanent bases” in Syria, ostensibly including the naval base at Tartus, the leased airbase at Hmeymim and two SIGINT facilities.

    However, Tartus is not a base but a “Material-Technical Support Point” per Russia’s MOD, or a glorified dock with only:

    • One concrete jetty used as a pier
    • Two pontoon bridges that serve as piers
    • One mooring jetty
    • One drydock


    Nor is the Russian Navy’s reactivated 5th Squadron based at Tartus, as the facility is incapable of hosting Russia’s major warships. Years of dredging and other work is required before the Russian Navy can take full advantage of its extended lease.

    As for Hmeymim, it has no hardened aircraft shelters that NATO airbases do, and hosts less aircraft and personnel than nearby NATO airbases.

    Secondly, you have claimed that Russia’s “bases” threaten NATO’s “southern flank”, presumably Turkey. How? Russia has air and naval bases in Crimea that can accomplish that. Sure, Hmeymim would shave ~160 miles off a round-trip to the far end of Turkish airspace, but is this a strategic factor?

    Thirdly, you have referred to Russian A2/AD bubbles threatening Israel and NATO. Yet these bubbles have only a handful of SAMs, including one S-300 and one S-400, and have no anti-ship capabilities.

    Fourth, Russia’s efforts to support a relatively minor intervention in Syria has demonstrated what dire straits Russian logistics are in. The only Russian “surges” of note have been when Russia used strategic bombers to conduct strike missions. Even the Kuznetsov’s campaign resulted in more of its aircraft being lost to accidents than the enemy, and most of its air operations being conducted from Hmeymim.

    On all these points, CrowBat has stated contrary opinions to yours…

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Concerning A2AD...anything that flies...carries a warhead and has a seeking guidance system is an inherent threat to AC...regardless of range...it still is a A2Ad threat to incoming AC that has to be suppressed...
    A2/AD also involves anti-ship capabilities in maritime areas, which Russia has not deployed in Syria. Russian defenses failed to deter or stop various Israeli airstrikes, the presence of U.S. naval forces off Syria and the recent TLAM strike on Shayrat. ‘Nuff said.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    BTW you cannot export intentions unless you have capabilities is an old saying...
    Then how did the U.S. and U.K. manage the airlift to West Berlin? They had no capability to lift the blockade by conventional force, the U.S. nuclear force was small and unready, and Soviet intelligence had penetrated the highest levels of both governments at that time. The “quarantine” of Cuba also involved serious risk-taking on the part of the U.S., as it did not have the conventional capability to neutralize the ballistic missile sites on Cuba without resorting to nuclear weapons.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Then answer the critical issue right now...the US failed Kurdish FP that will lead to a coming decade of violence in the ME...which has been posted in depth...
    Violence will continue until 30% or more of the fighting-age males are incarcerated, killed or incapacitated by injury.

  16. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    It seems that “all over the map” is your new de jour critique. Could it be that the famous “but wait” is being retired? Certainly the numerous exaggerated ellipses aren’t in danger of disappearing, are they?



    I can only assume that the lingering sting of the yellow card is behind the recent flurry of ad hominem.

    Which part of my reply to you had nothing to do with either the Syria thread in general, or your original comment(s) in particular?



    The Americans and Russians have "fathered" a Kurdish state as much as the Iranians fathered a Houthi one in Yemen. The Syrian Kurds only became local allies of the Coalition because they had mostly stayed out of the Syrian Civil War and fought primarily against Daesh. The Syrian Kurds filled the vacuum left by Assad’s intelligent withdrawal from indefensible areas of Syria: Sunni Arab areas in the east and center, and Kurdish areas in the north. For all of the ideological and organizational ties between the PKK and PYD, I have seen no evidence of YPG fighters and/or arms crossing into Turkey. Thus far, the YPG seems to be biding its time: avoiding confronting Turkey, and staying focused on consolidating "Rojava" and preserving ties with the U.S. Lastly, the political arrangements of “Rojava” do leave something to be desired, however, there is a significant degree of local governance, including by non-Kurds and non-Muslims,

    Donbas is a drain for Russia. It is useful as a spoiler like Transnistria, but will not be annexed in the way of South Ossetia or Abkhazia, much less like Crimea, which was absorbed as a federal subject.



    For the operations in Donbas, Russia created ad hoc BTGs from elements of units across the length and breadth of Russia. This was not so much to spread the combat experience around, but because of readiness issues, as Philip Karber detailed in his ORBAT to CSIS in 2014. Then, Russia deployed elements of these BTGs to Syria to participate in pro-Assad offensives. These developments, as well as the rather meaningless reactivation of old armored divisions, seems to corroborate the constant refrain from Austin Bay and James Dunnigan from StrategyPage, who have argued that Russia only has around 100,000 well-trained and equipped ground troops, and these include regular forces and special forces, as well as paramilitary units in the new National Guard that were formerly under the MOI. Various contributors at SWC have also kept track of the various transfers between the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets as well as the naval presence in the Mediterranean.

    Mercenaries played a key role in U.S.-led occupations od Afghanistan and Iraq, but the bribed degenerates in Donbas aside, Russia has yet to field a comparable mercenary force to the U.S. (more than 100,000) or Iran (more than 30,000). Note that estimates of U.S. contractors deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq during the 2006-2010 period ranged from 130,000 to 160,000 according to the Congressional Research Service. By comparison, there are perhaps 200 to 400 Russian mercenaries in Syria.

    Assad is safe from being overrun but is far from being able to retake the country. Despite facing only one serious adversary, the FSA, no active threat from the YPG or Daesh, and infighting between Daesh, HTS and the FSA. Obviously 30,000 to 40,000 foreign regulars and irregulars combined with a ~100,000-strong Syrian NDF are not enough to defeat the FSA despite their numerical superiority on paper...



    I’m glad that the two of you have put bromance before differences of opinion. It demonstrates a high degree of emotional maturity and puts your relationship on a solid footing…

    Firstly, you have claimed that Russia “now” has “permanent bases” in Syria, ostensibly including the naval base at Tartus, the leased airbase at Hmeymim and two SIGINT facilities.

    However, Tartus is not a base but a “Material-Technical Support Point” per Russia’s MOD, or a glorified dock with only:

    • One concrete jetty used as a pier
    • Two pontoon bridges that serve as piers
    • One mooring jetty
    • One drydock


    Nor is the Russian Navy’s reactivated 5th Squadron based at Tartus, as the facility is incapable of hosting Russia’s major warships. Years of dredging and other work is required before the Russian Navy can take full advantage of its extended lease.

    As for Hmeymim, it has no hardened aircraft shelters that NATO airbases do, and hosts less aircraft and personnel than nearby NATO airbases.

    Secondly, you have claimed that Russia’s “bases” threaten NATO’s “southern flank”, presumably Turkey. How? Russia has air and naval bases in Crimea that can accomplish that. Sure, Hmeymim would shave ~160 miles off a round-trip to the far end of Turkish airspace, but is this a strategic factor?

    Thirdly, you have referred to Russian A2/AD bubbles threatening Israel and NATO. Yet these bubbles have only a handful of SAMs, including one S-300 and one S-400, and have no anti-ship capabilities.

    Fourth, Russia’s efforts to support a relatively minor intervention in Syria has demonstrated what dire straits Russian logistics are in. The only Russian “surges” of note have been when Russia used strategic bombers to conduct strike missions. Even the Kuznetsov’s campaign resulted in more of its aircraft being lost to accidents than the enemy, and most of its air operations being conducted from Hmeymim.

    On all these points, CrowBat has stated contrary opinions to yours…



    A2/AD also involves anti-ship capabilities in maritime areas, which Russia has not deployed in Syria. Russian defenses failed to deter or stop various Israeli airstrikes, the presence of U.S. naval forces off Syria and the recent TLAM strike on Shayrat. ‘Nuff said.



    Then how did the U.S. and U.K. manage the airlift to West Berlin? They had no capability to lift the blockade by conventional force, the U.S. nuclear force was small and unready, and Soviet intelligence had penetrated the highest levels of both governments at that time. The “quarantine” of Cuba also involved serious risk-taking on the part of the U.S., as it did not have the conventional capability to neutralize the ballistic missile sites on Cuba without resorting to nuclear weapons.



    Violence will continue until 30% or more of the fighting-age males are incarcerated, killed or incapacitated by injury.
    Azor...sure wish you would post something of value than just responding and providing a running critique...then you can keep us informed on the everyday Russian/Iranian war in Syria...please respond to the postings on the Kurdish PKK and the role of US supporting a US named terrorist group which is a Communist guerrilla group vs say the current Trump Syrian FP.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-08-2017 at 04:32 PM.

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    Syrian FM Muallem says Russian "deescalation zones" to be secured by RU military police. Likely new Chechen brigade.
    http://www.sana.sy/?p=551650

    NOTE...have already posted info concerning the new incoming Chechen MP BDE...

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    Aleppo: #FSA blowing up 2 #YPG bulldozers with #ATGM southeast of #Azaz today.

    Some days ago: "#Astana deal is good. #Assad regime will focus on #ISIS."

    Today: "Oh no, #Assad regime attacks #FSA in Southern #Syria."

    DeirEzzor: #ISIS has killed #Assad Colonel Nader Saleh Al-Hamdan in #DeirEzzor.

    Palmyra: Pro-#Assad forces called #Russia|n helicopters to rescue them after many were gunned down by #ISIS today.

    Huge #Assad regime offensive against #FSA in Southern #Syria. Pro-#Assad forces will try to reach the #Iraq|i border.
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    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-08-2017 at 05:12 PM.

  19. #139
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    Clear #footage
    #Assad regime Su-22 bombing the northern "De-Escalation Zone".
    The #Kremlin regime & most media claim it does not happen.
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  20. #140
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    After rebels liberated large tracts of land from #ISIS in East Qalamoun, the Assad regime that didn't attack ISIS now takes it from rebels.
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