Who kills who: one suggestion
I think Azor asked about civilian casualties in Syria and this appeared on Twitter:
In 2017 only:
Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-14-2017 at 08:47 PM.
davidbfpo
RE: Civilian Casualties in Syria
Thanks, David.
Not inaccurate, although:Originally Posted by davidbfpo
1. The SOHR puts Russian-inflicted civilian fatalities at 4,674.
2. Airwars.org puts Coalition-inflicted civilian casualties (Syria only) at 1,336 to 2,301
I think that the attribution to pro-Assad forces is somewhat inflated. I have a spreadsheet of estimates elsewhere that I will post...
Thank you, David. I, for one, am not going to argue that the current President is my ideal. Having said that, it does read as though any action or inaction of his is being completely politicized. It is enough that laypeople with no understanding of conflict or history are now budding Kremlinogists and Bomb Damage Assessors.
There is quite enough partisan politics on Twitter, Disqus and Facebook plugin. I'd sooner discuss the course of the war in question.
To OUTLAW 09 RE: Syria
Then who will succeed him as leader of the Alawi/Christian/Druze faction?
RE:
- Not necessarily. Assad could have used rocket artillery
- See above
- Russia and Iran could have intervened with their airpower in 2013 to replace the SyAAF
- Not necessarily. What of rockets and shells?
- How so? Most of that is done on the ground
- Or the direct intervention of Iran and Russia on Assad’s behalf
His “society” now consists of Alawi, Christian and Druze Arabs, living primarily in the governorates of Latakia, Tartus, As-Suwayda and parts of Homs, Hama, Daraa, Rif Dimashq, Damascus and others.
There is no way that the minorities, be they Kurds, Alawis, Christians or Druze, are going to peacefully accept majority rule by the Sunni Arabs and face a possible “tyranny of the majority”. The best that the Sunni Arabs can hope for are population transfers for mixed areas and border demarcations of the variety carried out in East-Central Europe in the aftermath of World War II.
Partitioning the country and imposing ceasefires is the solution. While the Russian and Iranian forces could retreat to Assad’s enclave in the west, any Iranian-led mercenaries attempting to commit ethnic or sectarian cleansing of mixed areas with Sunni Arabs should be considered as FTOs and targeted in the same manner as Daesh and Khorasan.
Face it, Syria is a failed and fractured state. You had might as well pine for Yugoslavia to be pieced back together.
Yes, Teheran does have imperial ambitions. Yet it is wasting resources to preserve by force what it had already obtained by “soft power” by 2011. Teheran is unconcerned that Lebanon is not a unitary Shia-led state, and it should have moved toward allowing for similar federalism in Iraq and Syria, rather than allowing and/or spurring its allies there to provoke civil wars.
Yet what of the ongoing mass murder and development of WMDs in North Korea? What of the ongoing mass murder and war crimes in Sudan, South Sudan and other parts of Africa? What of ethnic and sectarian cleansing in Myanmar?
Your interest in applying force is confined to a particular region, when the U.S. has global interests. Moreover, the “humanitarian” interventions in Yugoslavia and Libya did far more to damage U.S. relations with its rivals and adversaries than the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq ever did. Merely because YouTube isn’t abounding with footage, doesn’t mean that the paramilitaries and indeed militaries of Africa, have stopped raping, murdering, torturing, maiming and pillaging.
Pakistan (and formerly Iraq) is the reason why Iran has a nuclear weapons program, in addition to state security. Israel is a diversion, not unlike how Russia violates the INF Treaty in response to China not NATO.
Iran has to be very careful with Pakistan, lest the ISI fire up Iran’s Balochis and Sunnis in reply. Nor can the Iranian military defeat Pakistan’s. Even with Indian support, Pakistan is backstopped with nuclear weapons, albeit the U.S. does have a costly and uncertain contingency plan for securing them.
It worked for Clinton, who was able to successfully kick a number of cans down the road, from non-proliferation to counter-terrorism. It also worked for Obama, who far from engaging with the Muslim world, pursued a strategy of containment and attrition via airpower.
So you basically deny that the movie concept of "Wag the Dog" does not in fact find itself often in the political realm of say Syria...NK or even Ukraine....
To deny that often politicians especially US politicians often look over their shoulders at their poll numbers and or "how it is playing with their voters" before they make a move is simple political reality...
So the TLAM air strike by Trump achieved actually what inside Syria? or did it impress the Russians?...certainly did not impress Assad and did it impress NK?...they are still moving forward....
Did is achieve a cessation of the killing of civilians via "other means" namely incendiary cluster munitions are as equally forbidden as gas is and has been since 1929 declared a "gas"....
NO in fact after the TLAM strike use of incendiary cluster munitions has increased 10 FOLD......
I find it interesting that the intertwining of internal US politics inside Syria is not recognized...because only then can a true solution be found....if it is recognized...
Which seems here to be not recognized...
BTW...did a single MOAB cause the IS in AFG to stop fighting in AFG...or did it achieve a major battlefield "victory".....36 killed if that number is even correct does not tip the battlefield against IS or even the Taliban....
HECK more were killed in the Diyala River Basin in one days worth of fighting in 2006 with 1st Cav units....BUT did that main the headlines?
OR did the MOAB really impress Iran and Russia and force them to stop supplying both weapons and advisors to the Taliban...NO it did not....
BUT did it make Trump look like this major "international player willing to use force"...YES...did it play well with his alt right...NO...did it play well with is voters...YES....
So again does the political theory of "Wag the Dog" actually exist???
With a President under such pressure concerning his alleged ties to Russian black money ties nicely again back into the political theory of "Wag the Dog"....
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-15-2017 at 04:48 AM.
Syria is actually not a truly failed state...if the fighting can be stopped...take a serious look at what the FSA negotiators have proposed...really take a serious look at their proposals....
Couple it with the ground reality....when FSA had the opportunity to retaliate IE as had the Shia...THEY DID NOT...take the single water source for all of Damascus...they protected it and never did shut it off....take the two Shia enclaves which were removed in ethnic cleansing exchanges...they never fired rockets into the civilian population as did Ass ad and Iran....take the ongoing fighting in Hama that now Assad forces took over two major Christian towns to launch attacks of the FSA and FSA refrained to fighting anywhere near them and reached out to them to ensure they knew they would not be attacked....
THEN take Aleppo...they never did in all the fighting actually attack western Aleppo which was literally next door...why civilians ..FSA and it's related units have a long history of not attacking civilians wherever possible.
AND Assad....civilians to not matter especially if they are Sunni's....
Go back to the very start of the rebellion....and seriously recheck every move Assad as made against civilians...THEN tell me if Assad ad his clan is removed things cannot go forward towards a long term peaceful resolution..
BTW....why is there interest the Iranians for Assad...Assad is from a Shia offshoot which many do not seem to fully understand just as a number of the Shia enclaves are Shia 12ers or 5ers...not really formally recognized even by Iran but heck all Shia even the offshoots are still Shia in Iranian eyes...
So partition would doom the entire ME...just as it has long term in Yugoslavia....but in reality it was the iron hand of Tito that kept it together....
You really do need to fully understand far more than you do about ground reality in both Syria and Iraq...
BTW...all these media reports about the "messaging behind the use of TLAMs and MOABs"...are to me nothing but "fake news" as their use did not influence......or change any political opinions nor impress anyone .....those that the US are concerned deeply with IE Syria....Russia....Iran and NK could not care in the least...they drive on their own agendas and have their own military capacities that they are comfortable with and a cruise missile or a 22,000 lb single bomb that takes an entire C130 to deliver and which would never survive an ADA2 environment...how is that "impressing"....
To OUTLAW 09 RE: Syria
Who are you referring to? All elected leaders? American ones?
You’ll kindly recall that the film was made in honor of former President Clinton, who found swashbuckling in Iraq, Somalia, Sudan and Yugoslavia more interesting than dealing with his scandals or indeed Congress.
I’ll cut you off at the pass here:
Firstly, Assad’s recent use of Sarin in Idlib was not fabricated. Neither was Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, ethnic cleansing in Bosnia or 9/11.
Secondly, there are cases where the rationale for intervention was incredibly weak, and in which misinformation and even outright disinformation was involved, such as the non-existent genocides in Kosovo and Libya and Iraqi nuclear weapons.
The airstrike on Shayrat punished Assad for using Sarin, without defeating him and materially altering the course of the war. Additionally, it degraded his air force by some 20% and signaled that the U.S. would use force in response to Assad’s use of Sarin and possibly other chemical weapons, later clarified to include chlorine gas and other “industrial” agents.
As for “impressing” state leaders, I have not seen Assad use Sarin or chlorine since and Putin has backed away from defending Syrian airspace.
I have not read or heard of any U.S. “redline” on the use of incendiary or cluster munitions. Such a stance would invariably conflict with the American doctrine on these weapons as well as their use by allies such as Israel.
In any event, the vast majority of Syrian civilians are dying from shells, bullets and unguided conventional bombs.
If I were you, I would be thankful that the current Administration has taken some action, however small, to deter and prevent Assad from butchering civilians as he has been since 2011. It has been three and a-half years since you were severely disappointed by witnessing Assad use Sarin with near impunity, invite Russia in, and then resort to chlorine gas. Why? In order for Iran, the invader keeping Syria aflame, to feel satiated enough to possibly meet its commitments under the NPT. Perhaps you should Tweet your frustrations to the person busy setting up his charity-cum-slush fund.
Do you hear that? It’s the sound of the world’s smallest violin.
Small wars of choice always revolve around domestic politics. Aside from a handful of defensive campaigns against the Danes, Normans, Spanish, French and Axis, all of England’s and Great Britain’s wars were wars of choice fought on the territory of others, in the air or on the high seas. Even British participation in the Great War was arguably as much a matter of choice as national defense. The records of the dynamics between monarch and aristocracy, monarch and parliament and parliament and public with regard to war, span centuries.
Complaining about what you cannot control is only going to give you undue stress. I read all-cap condemnations of the NSC for 3 years. Did those daily reminders make a difference?
I was waiting for you to bring the #MOAB up, although I can’t recall it being used in Syria…
Well, the enemy death toll is at 82 or almost 10% of Daesh’s fighting strength in Afghanistan. Not only were Daesh’s tunnel complexes cleared and destroyed, no Coalition casualties were incurred due to booby-traps; as a veteran of the Vietnam War, I thought you might appreciate that.
You have discussed Operation Arc Light, but I have read that the average number of NLF/NVA killed per B-52 was ~3. Those dumb bombs are better at killing and maiming civilians today, than they ever were at closing the Ho Chi Minh Trail.
Well, for the entire Diyala campaign, the kill/capture ratio was under 4:1 in favor of the Coalition. Not exactly bloodless. More akin to the Wehrmacht experience on the OstFront...
Now can we get back to Syria?
Azor...really go back and analyze the US Iranian deal and you will agee with my running critique of Obama in Syria....he fully and completely allowed with his approval the Iranian regional hegemony over Iraq and Syria ....this view was also restated clearly and concisely in his 20K word interview and further reinforced by the Ben Rhodes interview...all available to read....
So in some ways the Iranian involvement is a given from their perspective as it is their view also for Iraq....guaranteed by the Iran deal..
By entering Syria in large Shia militia numbers all they are doing is fulfilling what they assume to be their "natural rights" allowed them by Obama and company.
With Trump we have absolutely no strategy to speak of on either IS...Iran and or Russia...well maybe not Russia as Trump has never said a single word of disapproval of anything Putin does....and needs their money for his business empire...
Trump's current "Wag the Dog" moments reminds me of the lone pirate walking in a cave full of 100s of lbs of loose gunpowder carrying a flaming torch....with signs all around stating..."no open flames"....
This President is the least informed about world politics...the least educated in actual politics and actually the least overall educated of many of the former Presidents and on top of it an individual who in the business world had no morals in massively over leveraging his Ponzi scheme which needs a constant capital flow to survive....
So carrying an open flame into a cave full of gun powder is OK for him....he does not care after the second and third order of effects he creates...
I do.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-15-2017 at 07:09 AM.
THIS is example what I mean....while the entire MSM talks about the TLAM and MOAB strikes and how suddenly Trump has changed...WHICH if one carefully reads his and his merry band of brothers comments...he has not changed a single previous statement....
Things are developing in Europe that the MSM is not seeing because of all the Trump "chatter" about his strikes....
North Korea tensions are grabbing all the attention. Something really not-funny going on in Europe.
Hint: Large parts of Russian armed forces are on alert due "winter training period checks"
Russia has alerted 3 motorized brigades in the far east. Units are moving out of garrisons and relocating.
Actually the entire Russian military is on a full war time snap alert...the ENTIRE Russian military and it is not "winter"...it is "spring" so this Russian MoD statement alone is false....
They had just completed those checks a full month ago so why the sudden war time snap re-alert????
If you redeploy aircraft during Easter you don´t do it just for fun. F-35A to Europe this weekend
https://theaviationist.com/2017/04/1...ekend/#…
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-15-2017 at 07:36 AM.
FrolovLeaks: Goebbels of the Patriarch, Recruitment of Ukrainian Generals and Baptism by Fire in Syria. Episode IV
https://informnapalm.org/en/frolovle...a-episode-iv/#
To OUTLAW 09 RE: Trump
I'm well aware of your disdain for Obama's "secret protocol" with Khamenei that is reminiscent of Stalin and Churchill, and Stalin and Hitler, for that matter. There, some reductio ad Hitlerum for you...
You forget that the accusations of Trump being a Russian agent coincided with the transfer of Neo-Conservative support to Clinton in 2016, effectively concentrating all hawks and interventionists under one tent.
Subsequently, we saw the serving and past CIA Directors openly declare for Clinton, as well as many former NSC members. The more political former members of the defense, intelligence and foreign policy establishments were very vocal about their support for Clinton.
Had Clinton been elected, one could argue that this support was indicative of a consensus that could develop a grand strategy, carried out on a whole-of-government basis.
Yet her defeat was worrisome. How could these former insiders and leaders of these institutions claim that their institutions were impartial, let alone prepared to serve under Trump? Were their political opinions not representative to a significant degree of those of these bureaucracies?
Much of this establishment is now breathing a sigh of relief, with the notable exceptions of the CIA and State Dept. This relief has naturally been reflected in the media coverage.
Personally, it seems as though the election of Trump has dealt a blow to the gradual movement toward technocracy and the blending of political and military leadership.
Azor...appears Assad still has tons of CWs left....and the Russians virtually guaranteed it was all gone both to the US and to the UNSC.....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...apons-former/#
SO silence out of the Trump WH and his merry band of brothers this morning on this UK report which seems to be confirmed if one if one rereads a number of recent comments by the UN OPCW......
So "Wag the Dog" does not exist???
Otherwise we would be seeing far more TLAM strikes as the US has the same data as does OPCW.....AND trump issued his "red line on CWs did he not"....
Simple solution to hinder the use of CWs..hinder the delivery mechanism...aircraft and helicopters....he does not have the CW shells for artillery...
Firstly, al-Sakat defected in 2013 and is no longer an insider. He not only has an interest in gaining attention for himself, but in also encouraging Western military intervention in Syria.
Secondly, if the U.S. is aware of Assad's deceit, than it was from 2013-2016, no? Again, Obama bears responsibility for making an agreement in bad faith and lying to the American people, if what you say is true. Care you revise your logic?
Thirdly, if Assad has retained or rebuilt his stockpiles to pre-Civil War levels, then there is a major quandary: how to disarm Assad without exposing civilians to the chemical agents or allowing the weapons to fall into the wrong hands? It was estimated that a major U.S. campaign and some 75,000 ground troops were needed to secure and destroy Assad's chemical weapons in 2013. Therefore, it would be preferable to convince Assad not to use them rather than prize them from his grasp.
Proof of the existence of the "Wag the Dog" political theory.....meaning use something BIG to distract from the ground reality facing you.....
Entire MSM grabs the headline with TLAMs and MOAB but the ground reality that these strikes attempts to distract from....
Meals on Wheels budget: $7.5m CUT by Trump budget
NEA budget: $147m CUT by Trump budget
Cost to repair pipes in Flint: $200m CUT by Trump budget
Cost of MOAB bomb: $314m
AND that is not even in the area of FP....
AND "Wag the Dog" helps deflect the hypocrisy in this....as well...
Trump won’t post WH visitor logs, citing “security risks,” & says move will save taxpayers $70K by 2020.
One single golfing Mar-a-Lago trip costs $2M+.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-15-2017 at 08:15 AM.
Re: Moab
Actually that was for the first 20 units of the MOP, which is heavier and more sophisticated, and includes ongoing R&D costs as well.
The MOAB is intended to replace the BLU-82 Daisycutter...
"Wag the Dog" has now gotten out of control......
You know things have gotten upside down when China is urging calm and sounds like the most reasonable voice in the room.
Two uses of air strikes against countries that cannot defend themselves and now one who can fight back, has nuclear weapons and can flatten Seoul within hours and Trump is off golfing today?
From today's NK military parade....WHILE Trump is off golfing....
Generally speaking, this is not what you want to see North Korea military experts tweet while watching North Korea military parades.
Melissa Hanham#
@mhanham
OOOOOOH FUUUUUUUC..........
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-15-2017 at 08:37 AM.
Quoting George Takei now? I forgot his strategic acumen...
Relevance to the Syrian Civil War or Syria?
BUT as long as it takes a single C130 to deliver it and that C130 is not a noted breaker of a solid ADA2 environment ...what is it good for outside of "show and bluster" and "Wag the Dog"......
Even those that it is suppose to "impress" know it's main weaknesses.....last time I checked IS did not have a sophisticated ADA2 environment over AFG....
At least the Daisycutter was used to open up Landing Zones for troops...but again also never used in a heavy ADA2 environment....
In fact the largest Russian thermobaric weapon is far more effective...against cave environments than is the MOAB....
Russia throwing Assad to the wolves? State media now reporting Syria dictator has hidden chemical weapons storage
http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2877991&2877991#
Signs show Russia increasingly fed up with Assad
http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/1.783432
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-15-2017 at 11:43 AM.
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