I live in Lagos, Nigeria's biggest city and a barometer of where Nigeria is heading.

I went to Church last Sunday and heard an announcement about the creation of a cooperative. Members are supposed to pool resources for a period of six months and then be eligible to apply for loans and financial support. The amount requested per month is minimal (about $20), but the implications are far ranging - in a nation with a non-existent social security system, the Church has stepped into the void.

Juxtapose this with the planned retrenchment of 25,000 workers from the Civil Service next year, you'd immediately understand that the Church is thinking ahead.

Many Western analysts tend to underestimate the appeal and influence of Christian organisations in Nigeria. The Redeemed Christian Church of God, the largest evangelical denomination in Nigeria has at least 26,000 parishes and membership runs into millions. But evangelical churches don't just preach the word, they are heavily into education - these churches operate several primary and secondary schools and several operate or are in the process of establishing private universities.



(The pix above shows Covenant University campus, it may not be much by American standards, but for Nigeria, it is quite an achievement).

The same trend is mirrored within Islam (Nigeria also has a very large number of progressive Muslims, but they tend to be ignored by Western analysts). There are a rising number of "Nigeria Turkish" secondary schools (the Turks have street cred in those parts of Nigeria).

However, there is a strain of Islam that sees the superior organisational ability and financial muscle of Christian organisations as a threat that must be dealt with. Boko Haram, political Sharia and some Christian/Muslim crises may be seen as an attempt to mark boundaries.

As government is in retreat, religious organisations are rapidly taking over the functions of government. Will the next generation of Nigerians be even less tolerant than mine?

The next trend is the diminishing relevance of the center. Don't get me wrong, the central Federal Government is still hugely relevant, but due to compromises that have to be made to balance religious and ethnic sentiments and corruption it is increasingly less able to respond in a timely manner in meeting developmental challenges.

Lagos illustrates what the relationship between the Federal Government and more competent local administrations is likely to be in future. Lagos State depends on the Federal Government for only 25% of its funding (unlike most states in the North where the figure is closer to 95%). In addition the Lagos State government, through aggressive tax collection, is funding several important infrastructure projects.

The methods of Lagos are being adopted by more progressive states in Nigeria's South. Right now, there is talk about regional integration between Lagos and the five other states in the South West. (Ogun state is already leveraging on its proximity to Lagos to jump start its economy). Other states in the South are eagerly jumping on the bandwagon (levels of education in the South are high by African standards and increasingly so are expectations of governance).

Where does this leave us? It leaves us with a two speed Nigeria. With the terms North and South and Muslim and Christian not only referring to ethnic and religious affiliations but indicating steadily increasing differences in standards of living, educational attainment but most importantly worldviews.

For a nation to whether the test of time, it has to be much more than a vehicle to support the exploration of crude oil - it needs to have a common focus and a common soul. With two rapidly diverging identities (Muslim/Christian, Northern/Southern), is that possible?