Quote Originally Posted by Entropy View Post
Did anyone predict what happened in Egypt? Not that I'm aware of. Emergent phenomena cannot be predicted except through guesswork.

And yes, intelligence comes with a lot of opportunity for failure and it is (or should be) a humbling profession.

I personally have never much liked the CIA, but I won't deny them their successes. If you aren't aware of any, then I suggest you read any of Jeffrey Richelson's books on the agency and intelligence community.
What? You can't even provide one success the CIA have had? That's sad.

As I recall, Iraq and Afghanistan didn't exactly turn out as expected and, given the state of the USA, I doubt the American people will support similar invasions elsewhere - even if one believes such invasions are necessary and appropriate given the threat posed by AQ. Maybe it's different where you live, but here I think the idea that invading countries with large conventional forces to rout out terrorist organizations is pretty much bankrupt.
Well whatever you think it happened before and may well be likely to happen again.

And all this brings us back to the point that IMHO the US would be better served by cutting back on the incompetent CIA and the State department drastically than doing same to a military currently involved in two wars. The military cuts can come later.