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Thread: Syria in 2016 (October onwards)

  1. #2021
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    Default RE: Sources on the Syrian Civil War

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Azor....something to think about as this topic has largely gone totally unnoticed by most US writers and MSM when they mention the words Syria... IS....Iran and Assad in the same sentence...

    If you take the time to read most of what Lister...Weiss....Orton and Hassan Hassan have written about the connections of Assad to the development and support to first QJBR/AQI and then IS and still continued support via the Kurdish YPG/PKK as well as the Iranian support to IS.....we might have had a far different Syrain discussion coming out of the Obama WH......
    I'm not trying to dismiss your sources. In fact, you have provided outstanding coverage of the Ukrainian and Syrian wars, even if at the risk of error because by the time the item is confirmed, it is no longer up-to-date.

    I am a steadfast supporter of the Free Syrian Army and White Helmets, as well as of the UAF and paramilitaries in their struggle against Russia.

    However, there are reasonable concerns that in Syria, the moderate pro-democrats will be crushed between dynastic and Islamist authoritarian factions (as in Egypt). I say dynastic, because Syrian Ba'athism serves the Assad family just as Iraqi Ba'athism served the Husseins. Their use and misuse of religious and tribal affinities in order to retain and propagate power is no different than the royal dynasties of the Gulf Arab states.

    Similarly, in Ukraine, there are paramilitaries with obvious Fascist/National Socialist taints (not unlike Russia's "volunteers"), even if the majority are simply brave patriots, and corruption remains as much a problem under the pro-Western government as it did under the pro-Russian one.

    On Disqus, I will take on any person claiming that Assad represents stability and/or that the opposition is comprised of foreign terrorists (what of the IRGC and Hezbollah). But I also want to make sure that Muslim supremacists are not being lionized simply because they are fighting Assad. Question everything, right?

    What are your thoughts on the reliability of Al-Monitor (D.C.), The Daily Star (Lebanon) and the Peninsular Qatar (Doha)?

  2. #2022
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    I'm not trying to dismiss your sources. In fact, you have provided outstanding coverage of the Ukrainian and Syrian wars, even if at the risk of error because by the time the item is confirmed, it is no longer up-to-date.

    I am a steadfast supporter of the Free Syrian Army and White Helmets, as well as of the UAF and paramilitaries in their struggle against Russia.

    However, there are reasonable concerns that in Syria, the moderate pro-democrats will be crushed between dynastic and Islamist authoritarian factions (as in Egypt). I say dynastic, because Syrian Ba'athism serves the Assad family just as Iraqi Ba'athism served the Husseins. Their use and misuse of religious and tribal affinities in order to retain and propagate power is no different than the royal dynasties of the Gulf Arab states.

    Similarly, in Ukraine, there are paramilitaries with obvious Fascist/National Socialist taints (not unlike Russia's "volunteers"), even if the majority are simply brave patriots, and corruption remains as much a problem under the pro-Western government as it did under the pro-Russian one.

    On Disqus, I will take on any person claiming that Assad represents stability and/or that the opposition is comprised of foreign terrorists (what of the IRGC and Hezbollah). But I also want to make sure that Muslim supremacists are not being lionized simply because they are fighting Assad. Question everything, right?

    What are your thoughts on the reliability of Al-Monitor (D.C.), The Daily Star (Lebanon) and the Peninsular Qatar (Doha)?
    Azor....a small secret on how I work and or analyze something....as a grey beard strategic debriefer and interrogator working in three languages when the terms never even existed in the Berlin Cold War days I became hooked so to speak on open source intelligence....as I had learned when talking to a normal joe six pack or a nuclear scientist or a student....the human mind and eyes sees things sometimes far better that all the satellites and NSA's in the world...and it is their own personal perceptions and biases that one has to learn how to filter out of the chatter...

    AND especially learning one's own biases that helps a lot......I also learned that all the satellites and NSAs in the world cannot look through and or behind a locked door...that takes a human to unlock and enter.....

    I read an article and mentally compare it to my intel experience..experience in guerrilla warfare not the theory side..what I have learned in numerous debates in a German university environment ....seen in videos and photos...then I accept or reject the article..........regardless of who writes it...and yes even some very conservative writers are worth listening to....

    BUT if I notice the article comes nowhere close to my above filters especially on Iraq..Syria....Ukraine...and Islam I am turned off....and move on...

    I was lucky in the mid 70s to have had a US card carrying Communist Party Boston University Professor who had a lot of active duty Army officers in his class....who bluntly stated during the first class...do not write what you think I want to hear and see because of my political leanings....write your own ideas and learn to defend then and I will grade you on your ability to defend your thinking.....was one of the best ever courses I have ever had and on par with anything the German FU was offering.....

    He constantly tangled with the Army officers but they accepted his arguments and he theirs and they came out with solid grades much to their surprise....

    I read what Weiss...Lister...Hassan...Orton and especially CrowBat write simply because they reflect the current ground reality backed by videos....FSA statements...photos which I feel gives a far better overview of what the heck is ongoing.... example CrowBat has probably one of the best order of battle breakout on the Syrian ground players that rivals anything the CIA has going right now....

    What is never talked about inside DC and the Obama WH and coming Trump WH...Syria is simply a open rebellion by 73% of the civil society demanding rule of law....fair economic development....and good governance...and it started peacefully and that should be respected....

    What bothers me a lot more is the lack of the understanding in many US MSM articles and writers on just how Crimea...eastern Ukraine..Syria is part and parcel of a very aggression Russian non linear war using an intensive form of information warfare coupled with an elegant use of cyber warfare...

    Hate to say it...but it is a war...just with other means and it has three strategic geopolitical goals that have never changed..since actually 2006.

    1. damage and discredit NATO
    2. damage and discredit EU
    3. disconnect the US completely from EU/NATO/ME

    All designed to drive a new Russian formulated Yalta 2.0 allowing their political/military influence to expand from Portugal to the Russian Far East...

    It really is that simple but many attempt to develop a complicated explanation when one is not necessary...

    My concern has been that Obama was actually helping Putin in reaching these goals and that a Trump WH will cement them...as he backs the US away from NATO and the ME....

    EXAMPLE....notice this did not gain any traction in the US MSM but it did on social media....this is dangerous especially when before the election everyone on Trump's campaign and Trump himself denied Russian "connections".....

    Russian wants in exchange for "being friendly with Trump"....the US sanctions dropped...

    AM News: Trump Advisor Arrives in Moscow; Plans to 'Meet With Influential Business People and Thought Leaders'
    http://www.interpretermag.com/russia...-8-2016/#15694
    BTW...Carter Page was supposedly dropped as was Manafort from the Trump campaign for being to close to Russia and for is supposedly illegally working as a "paid foreign agent" that the BI was supposedly investigating but we have heard nothing about that..COUPLED with his Moscow visit just before the election supposedly talking to high Russian officials about the future Trump Russian FP.... .

    EXAMPLE...with Crimea and eastern Ukraine invasions by Putin we have learned that a number of Republican Congressmen seem to have been receiving large campaign donations from proRussian lobbyist firms in the US...and suddenly they spout the latest and greatest Russian Today political statements...which sometimes first come via Sputnik International.......

    Rohrbacher in a number of proRussian statements on Crimea and eastern Ukraine openly stated that the current Ukrainian government was led by a bunch of Nazi's.....he somehow thinks social media "forgot his statements from two years ago"....

    Rep. Dana Rohrabacher compares Putin to former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in contentious exchange

    https://yhoo.it/2hkLmQO

    A total lack of knowledge on the part of Rohrbacher as there is no comparison between Gorbachev and Putin with some Russian ultra nationalists actually claiming now that Gorbachev is a traitor for allowing the SU to collapse....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-08-2016 at 09:15 AM.

  3. #2023
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    Russian aircraft carrier just less than 1km from Tartus coast...is she in serious danger of sinking OR maybe a new Russian military use of a smokescreen?????

    A story goes around the pilots there's a mysterious carrier that lures the planes to the bottom of the sea.
    https://twitter.com/2431956/status/806354061612163077

    Su-33 from Adm. #Kuznetsov that crashed 3 Dec was Red 67 (RF-06305). Gefest upgraded.
    http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3164261
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    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-08-2016 at 09:29 AM.

  4. #2024
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    China Pushes Back on Michael Flynn’s ‘Radical Islamist’ Remarks
    http://nyti.ms/2gTTPxs

    Reference the Russian propaganda attempt to lionize their killed COL...Tank Brigade Commander....

    Dear @EmbassyofRussia,
    1. the photo wasn't taken "these days" but in 2015
    2. it wasn't taken in #Aleppo but near #Damascus.
    3. Nice try.
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    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-08-2016 at 09:09 AM.

  5. #2025
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    Izvestya is reporting that infamous chechen units "Vostok" and "Zapad" are protecting Russia's air base in #Syria
    http://izvestia.ru/news/650206

    Individual from Vostok fought in eastern Ukraine in 2014....

    Video allegedly showing the Chechens from the "Vostok" and "Zapad" batallions leaving for Syria
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrysuF4npio

    Izvestiya sources: Chechens going to Syria are Kadyrov's "Zapad" and "Vostok" batlns who fought in Georgia in 2008 http://izvestia.ru/news/650206
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-08-2016 at 10:26 AM.

  6. #2026
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    Following win for Trump & Russian allies in Europe, Russia increases funding for propaganda channel @RT_com by $19bn
    https://meduza.io/news/2016/12/08/rt...vmeste-vzyatym

    THE West and the US have basically lost the information war as they cannot even begin to match the Russian expenditures....

    Hello, Paris:
    #Russia's @RT_com foreign language propaganda channel receive more than $15 million to air shows in French:
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-08-2016 at 10:14 AM.

  7. #2027
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    Anybody w/ pics of latest model UAZ Patriot SUV/pickup truck (УАЗ-3163, 2360) in actual RU mil service? This one from Latakia Feb16.
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    Russia running "so called UN peacekeeping ops" in white copters .....

    BUT WAIT.....the Russian peacekeeping brigades 14th and 15th all have white vehicles....BUT over the Gulf of Finland??????

    Pribylovo attack helis in UN white over Gulf of Finland during next couple weeks?

    https://twitter.com/RUSexercises/sta...75095880388608

    Russian MoD will conduct drills /w combat helis escorting humanitarian aid convos. The helis will be painted in UN peacekeeping white.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-08-2016 at 09:58 AM.

  9. #2029
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    bellingcat @bellingcat
    How Relevant to Syria is Syria’s Regime? via @bellingcat
    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena...syrias-regime/

  10. #2030
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    Nice film of Su-30SM. One copy should be projected at open air Baltic Theater (Kaliningrad) later today. #Су30СМ

    https://youtu.be/4vEiQWB3CAk

  11. #2031
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    British foreign minister says Saudi and Iran stoking proxy wars in Middle East
    http://reut.rs/2h9w02O

    Let's test the UK FM thesis.....nope have not seen large numbers of KSA backed Shia militias running amuck in the ME lately.......AND/OR KSA chanting the refrain "revolutionary Islam" and "death to the Great Satan"....

    Another bad UK FM comment to say the least.......noticed he simply and conveniently forgot Russia.....

  12. #2032
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    Eliot Higgins
    ✔ @EliotHiggins The Russian Embassy UK now using Twitter to libel academics

    https://twitter.com/ShirazMaher/stat...01395449925632

    Russian embassy UK is one of the most aggressive Russian info warfare centers of excellence.....has a massive record for spreading fake news and outright lies.....in the form of tweets....

    Russian Embassy, UK
    ✔ @RussianEmbassy @ShirazMaher you precisely support terrorists from al-Nusra&affiliates, & just refused 2 condemn them killing ���� doctors who treated Syrians

    Russian Embassy, UK
    ✔ @RussianEmbassy @ShirazMaher cruelty of Al-Nusra and their "moderate" friends is well known. Use civilians as human shield, shoot those who flee to safety

    Shiraz Maher
    ✔ @ShirazMaher @RussianEmbassy and Russian aggression?

    Shiraz Maher
    ✔ @ShirazMaher I assume @Amb_Yakovenko will be calling for a full investigation.


    Shiraz Maher
    ✔ @ShirazMaher @RussianEmbassy more libel. You really want to go down this road? I'll invite you to retract these smears and won't be engaging further.

    Russian Embassy, UK
    ✔ @RussianEmbassy @ShirazMaher smear is calling "war criminals" a legitimate force fighting extremists (who are a threat to UK as well)

    Shiraz Maher
    ✔ @ShirazMaher @RussianEmbassy actually, I don't. I've called out the terrorists loads. But also happy to call out the repeated, daily war crimes of Russia

    Russian Embassy, UK
    ✔ @RussianEmbassy @ShirazMaher why not condemn war crime by "moderates" killing Russian nurses? Russia brings Syrians peace and food, you side with terrorists

    NOTICE the Russian Embassy UK say nothing about their own air strikes against 45 Syrian hospitals and medical facilities....and medical supply warehouses....

    Shiraz Maher
    ✔ @ShirazMaher @RussianEmbassy committing war crimes on a daily basis: bombing hospitals, schools, & besieged civilians. You're proud cos you have no shame

    Russian Embassy, UK
    ✔ @RussianEmbassy @ShirazMaher Russian Air Force is in Syria by invitation of its Government, proudly defending Syrian people from extremists

  13. #2033
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    Here an official statement about establishment of Jaysh at-Thuwar, in southern Syria.

    As far as I can make it out, it is to include:
    - Jaysh al-Yarmouk (TOW-equipped),
    - Liwa Muhajireen wa'l-Ansar (TOW-equipped),
    - Jaysh Mutaaz Billah (TOW-equipped),
    - Liwa al-Hassan ibn Ali (not TOW-equipped, but a former member of the Kataeb Sayf ash-Sham, which is TOW-equipped).

    The organization in question appears to be related to Jamal Ma'arouf's Syrian Revolutionary Front (SRF), which used to be active in northern Syria, and supported by the USA until destroyed by the JAN (now JFS), in 2015. It's sole remnant in northern Syria is meanwhile a part of the US-supported SDF.

    So, to me this hears as if other remnants of the SRF are merging with some elements of the Southern Front FSyA - and this either on behalf of the USA and Jordan, or (and much more likely) Russia.

    And inside Eastern Aleppo, all the remaining insurgent groups (bar the few hundred of JFS jihadists and HNAZ Islamists) have united themselves under the banner of Liwa Ashida'a (FSyA), led by Abu Abd Ashida'a, from Sukari District.

    Means: Fatah Halab aka Jaysh Halab is de-facto dissolved.

    As usually, this is much too late...

  14. #2034
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    bellingcat @bellingcat
    How Relevant to Syria is Syria’s Regime? via @bellingcat
    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena...syrias-regime/
    Ouch! Sorry, but can't agree with Goldsmith.

    Sure, this is all related to Russians and Turks attempting to find their own solution for Syria.

    However, sorry: contrary to the IRGC, neither of them is in control of the Assadist regime.

    That's why any kind of their mutual agreements are actually irrelevant, and Goldsmith's conclusion wrong.

  15. #2035
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    CIT (en) @CITeam_en
    High-ranking Spetsnaz commander among Russian servicemen killed and wounded in Aleppo recently who were awarded by Putin today

    He was with the 16th Spetsnaz Brigade which has also fought recently in eastern Ukraine....and was there first in 2015....

    His rank is unusual as the rank of COL would have made him the Brigade Commander and why then was he on the forward lines?

    Worth reminding that another guy from that Ru brigade killed in Syria was lieutenant colonel Bekish from Belarus http://belsat.eu/en/news/fighting-fo...-way-to-death/




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    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-08-2016 at 03:06 PM.

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    BREAKING: Islamic State launches attack to recapture Palmyra from regime. "City in panic, families evacuating," source tells us today.

    Homs: Huge gains for #ISIS around #Palmyra. #Assad regime defence lines collapsed on several frontlines.

    #ISIS advancing again in the vicinity of #Palmyra 4 KM . It seems that #Assad and #Russia have decided to surrender the city of New
    #Syria

    Homs: #ISIS with captured pro-#Assad forces northwest of #Palmyra today.

    Breaking. #ISIS claims to be in full control of strategic Hayyal Mount overlooking main road towards #Palmyra and ~5 km SW of Ancient city.

    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-08-2016 at 03:27 PM.

  17. #2037
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    Russian airbase in Iran, airbase in Syria, possibly Turkey, visiting Egypt and now Libya #ObamaLegacy is epic geopolitical failure

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    ICRC Syria
    ✔ @ICRC_sy Entering the Old City of #Aleppo yesterday to evacuate people. Ruins lined the narrow streets, making it nearly impossible to get through.

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    Surprise surprise. Germany says there has been a sharp increase in disinformation campaigns and cyber attacks http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge...source=twitter

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    Aleppo: Rebels destroying #Assad regime vehicle with TOW in northwestern #Aleppo today.

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