Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[Norfolk]

Has anyone else noticed that the cold wars back and getting warmer by the minute.

Yeah. For some time I was almost missing the good old days...until they came back. Now I'm starting to recall a little about why we were somewhat on edge back then. Funny, the last few weeks I've been thinking forget China/Taiwan/South China Sea as the likeliest theatre for the next potential big conventional war, it's Eastern Europe - Ukraine above all - that we should be worrying about. Guess Georgia may form a prelude.

[Ron Humphrey]

Yeah. For some time I was almost missing the good old days...until they came back. Now I'm starting to recall a little about why we were somewhat on edge back then. Funny, the last few weeks I've been thinking forget China/Taiwan/South China Sea as the likeliest theatre for the next potential big conventional war, it's Eastern Europe - Ukraine above all - that we should be worrying about. Guess Georgia may form a prelude.

But I wouldn't necessarily look to others not counting their chickens before they've hatched. Noone has ever gotten everything they wanted and it those details within which the devils reside

I just hope the planners on the various sides have considered how this type of thing generally tends to leave the planned path quickly.

[Norfolk]

I just hope the planners on the various sides have considered how this type of thing generally tends to leave the planned path quickly.

But Ron, making a sober assessment of what you would like (and may actually be capable of) to do, what the enemy may (and might be capable of doing) also do, and how it may all turn to liquid state anyway takes all the fun out of planning and starting wars. After all, no one likes a party-pooper. (But maybe we should listen to them anyway, perhaps....)

[Ron Humphrey]

But Ron, making a sober assessment of what you would like (and may actually be capable of) to do, what the enemy may (and might be capable of doing) also do, and how it may all turn to liquid state anyway takes all the fun out of planning and starting wars. After all, no one likes a party-pooper.

But these days I've just about reached my RK stage,

Can't we all just get along!

- Rodney King

[selil]

I'm no expert but isn't it likely that this is as much a cold war tactic of proxy statism? The United States sits in the middle of Iraq and Afghanistan with first strike capability against every middle eastern well head. The Russians can look at that with a fairly malevolent eye. I don't believe for a minute that moving into Ossetia is about patriotism. With the Move into South Ossetia and the ability to now role right over Armenia and Azerbejizian (sp?) that puts the soviets into a stronger position to forestall US adventurism into Iran. It looks like simple barrier and balance diplomacy. The continuing assault only strengthens my supposition. I know go hide under my rock. I won't even mention that RBN used cyber war in this conflict EXACTLY like I said it could be used years ago.

[jmm99]

occupied by Georgian ethnic populations (1/5 to 1/3 of So. Ossetia pop., depending on source).

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/...tia-Glance.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_War
http://www.forcedmigration.org/guides/fmo001/fmo001.pdf

Insert to Fuchs' map showing (orange) areas controlled by Georgia 7 Aug looks more like an patchwork, possibly following river valleys (seems so, from SO2 map below).

That insert has some resemblence to the agency's ethnic map for Caucasian region, but the latter is at too small a scale to match exact areas in the insert.

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Im...sus-ethnic.jpg

Here is a blowup of the Georgian-controlled areas (ultimate source ?)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...s/d/d1/SO2.jpg

The map (post by kaur #40) has the villages identified (Geo vs Oss). Looks like a GA march north to the Roki Tunnel would have been an uphill climb through unfriendly (Oss) mountain country. Remind you of another war a long time ago ?

So, perhaps the GA deployed in an effort to protect their own by being there - a noble political thought, but maybe not the best plan to repel an invasion. Wasn't ARVN strung out something like that at the end ?

Which goes to prove that, if one (JMM) has no experience in an area; and has incomplete maps re: troops, population, etc. - one be a-guessin big time in reaching any military or political conclusion.

PS1: Rus Maps (link by kaur # 38) has topo maps (slow dl) + a cute little Velo Gal for you youngsters. Also has an English page linked, with same Velo Gal.

http://www.topomaps.eu/

PS2: For anyone out there who might be a cold war lover, multi-beaked birds can still fly on both sides.

[kaur]

I found one nice radio broadcast in Russian. Lady is famous Russian journalist and she explains the situation in the whole North Caucasus very well. You have to use google translator again. Would you paste to Google window

Эхо Москвы / Передачи / Код доступа / Суббота, 09.08.2008

and use 1 link's "translate this page"

[Fuchs]

Generally, the understanding of what they're criticizing is superficial or ill-informed (as was your comment I quoted here and a few others over the past weeks) and -- this is important -- we don't really care what you think but are willing to mention some things you might not have thought of.

Yeah, right. You don't know whom or what arguments I'm talking about, but you know they're wrong. Looks like a holy cow rests on the road ahead.


@Wilf;
I see some possible excuses for the Georgians that would not imply operational incompetence. Instead, they imply political incompetence.
I've seen lots of info right now that hint at successful provocations by Russia (via its proxy SO) prior to this hot war phase (even including artillery attacks on Georgian settlements).
It looks like Saakashvili took the bait, and he did it in a way that gave the Russians an easy opportunity for intervention.

It reminds me a lot of mid-19th century to pre-WWI politics.

-----

About the map; it looks pretty similar to Bosnian war maps and also a bit reminiscent of Sino-Japanese War maps.
The Russian advance guard smashed right through the main Georgian enclave early on - that was probably already the decision of the war.
The last info that I got is that the Russians advanced beyond SO to the next Georgian city. It looks like they want to increase pressure on the Georgian government till it resigns.

[William F. Owen]

@Wilf;
I see some possible excuses for the Georgia that would not imply operational incompetence. Instead, they imply political incompetence.
I've seen lots of info right now that hint at successful provocations by Russia (via its proxy SO) prior to this hot war phase (even including artillery attacks on Georgian settlements).
It looks like Saakashvili took the bait, and he did it in a way that gave the Russians an easy opportunity for intervention.

It reminds me a lot of mid-19th century to pre-WWI politics.

I'm not sure the Gruzynim are as stupid as some may think. If Georgia ends up in NATO, with US bases on it's soil, it may make things look a bit different.

[Fuchs]

Well, that won't happen without losing SO and Abchasia.
The European governments said pretty clearly that they don't want a new ally who has territorial disputes involving Russia. Especially not one who doesn't add any relevant advantages to NATO.

The best the Georgians can hope for without losing SO and Abchasia officially is probably a bilateral alliance with the USA.
I wonder why the USA didn't offer such an alliance after it tried (unsuccessfully) to get Georgia into NATO. GWB looked committed to offer Georgia an alliance, but didn't go the whole distance after NATO partners declined.

BTW, I don't think they are necessarily stupid - politicians have to re-learn alliance building politics and serious national security politics nowadays.
It's not 19th century anymore when the whole world was so volatile and full of great power games that foreign policy was a lot about these things.

[Jedburgh]

For those interested, the RFE/RL Crisis in South Ossetia page has a slew of analytic articles, backgrounders, a timeline, and a multimedia reporting......