Iraq catch-all: after Operation Iraqi Freedom ended

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The Anbar Awakening, which emerged in 2006 was a mix of sheikhs, clerics, and tribesmen, many of which were involved with the insurgency. Each was driven by their own motivation to give up the struggle against the Americans and the Iraqi government, and instead turn their weapons on their former compatriots. Sheikh Abdullah Jalal Mukhif Faraji was one such individual. He was the deputy head of the Sunni Endowment in Anbar, and a member of the Ramadi city council that later helped lead the Anbar Salvation Council along with Sheikh Abdul Sattar Abu Risha and others. To Faraji it was the extremism of Al Qaeda in Iraq that led to the formation of the Awakening, which later became a political force in Anbar.

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Sheikh Abdul Sattar Abu Risha was not the first in Anbar to challenge Al Qaeda in Iraq’s hold upon the province, but he was the most successful at it. He proposed the Anbar Awakening in 2006, which eventually helped re-take the governorate away from the militants. It was a dramatic transformation for a place that the American forces had almost written off. Abu Risha had far more goals than that, but he wasn’t able to see them come to fruition as he was assassinated a year after he formed the Awakening. His brother, Ahmed Sattar al-Rishawi Abu Risha took over the movement after his brother’s death. He followed through with Abdul’s plans and transformed the movement into a political organization. To Ahmed Abu Risha the Awakening was an initiative that only Iraqis could have come up with, as only they had the ability to sway others away from the insurgency and transform Anbar.

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As the United States Congress was discussing a military strike against Syria for its alleged use of chemical weapons, Iran’s new foreign minister travelled to Iraq where he received widespread support for opposing any such move. The Iranian diplomat met with a number of different Iraqi politicians all of which warned about the negative repercussions of any U.S. action against President Bashar Assad. This was a rare occasion where Iraq’s elite agreed upon Syria. In the past, each political party has carried out its own foreign policy with different groups coming out for the Syrian rebels, while others have implicitly supported Damascus. The threat of U.S. missiles has brought about rare unity on this issue.

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Sheikh Abdul Abu Risha and Sheikh Wissam Abdul Ibrahim Hardan were the brains behind the Anbar Awakening. The two met in 2006, and decided to organize the major tribes in the province against the insurgents. The problem was that many of the sheikhs were reluctant at first to join in Abu Risha and Hardan’s scheme. The Awakening also had to convince the Americans of their sincerity, and deal with the Iraqi Islamic Party that controlled Anbar. Once they overcame these difficulties, and were successful in expelling the militants however, the Awakening began breaking up. Those divisions are still apparent today as Hardan has now become an ally of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, and opposes his former Anbar brethren. The Awakening experience for Hardan then was a disappointment. He became a hero for fighting militants, but then failed to gain the local and national power that he hoped for.

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The security situation in Iraq is already bad, but recent anecdotal stories could be pointing to things getting much worse. In Basra, there are reports of threats and killings of Sunnis in retaliation for attacks upon Shiites in the rest of the country. In Diyala and Dhi Qar there have been stories of families fleeing intimidation, while in Baghdad an angry mob burned a suspected suicide bomber and bodies have been found dumped and executed. These are all happening in the midst of the government’s latest security operation, which is proving as ineffective as the last one. These recent acts are directly related to the inability of the government to contain the insurgency. If these types of events become more common it could be a sign that society is breaking down once again, and armed groups are taking matters into their own hands.

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Violence in Iraq has escalated to the worse levels seen since 2008. The insurgency is making a comeback, while the central government is repeating many of the mistakes made by the United States after the 2003 invasion. The cause of this crisis is a breakdown in the country’s politics. Members of the Sunni community feel increasingly alienated from the government, because their national leadership has failed, their local politicians are ignored, Baghdad has focused the security forces upon their areas, and the protest movement has not achieved any tangible results. To help explain how this situation has led to the current security crisis is Maria Fantappie, a former visiting scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center and currently an Iraq researcher for the International Crisis Group. You can follow her on Twitter @Maria Fantappie and the International Crisis Group @CrisisGroup.

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The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Qods Force Commander General Qasim Suleimani is a rather infamous figure in Iraq and the Middle East. The general has been blamed for organizing attacks upon American forces when they were in Iraq, helping to put together new governments in Baghdad, and now he’s running Iraqi fighters into Syria. The man is a jack of all trades involved in espionage, covert operations, and power politics. He’s rarely talked about in public however, which was why Dexter Filkins’ recent article for the New Yorker profiling the general was quite revealing. Here now is an interview with Filkins about General Suleimani’s role in Iraq.

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August 2013 was the worst month of the year for Iraq’s fragile security situation. Insurgents carried out a huge number of mass casualty bombings, as the public seemed to teeter on the edge of losing faith in the government to protect them. There were increasing stories of sectarian retaliation up and down the length of the state. That begs the question of which direction Iraq is heading. Is this the new norm or are can things get any worse?

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Sheikh Jassim Mohammed Salah al-Suwadawi of the Albu Soda tribe and Sheikh Abdul Rahman al-Janabi of the Albu Mahal tribe were two prominent tribal leaders in eastern Ramadi. They found themselves unemployed after the 2003 invasion, but unlike many of their compatriots they did not turn that frustration into armed struggle against the Americans and Iraqi government. Instead they attempted to reach out to Baghdad and the U.S., but their initial attempts were failures. Eventually they joined the Anbar Awakening and helped secure the province. Along the way they lost many relatives and followers to violence. Their story shows the early struggles and consequences of joining the tribal revolt in Western Iraq.

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As security deteriorates in Iraq, the government is desperately searching for solutions. Recently Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki called for revitalizing the Sons of Iraq groups, which he neglected after the U.S. withdrawal, and about using the Tribal Support Councils that he created several years ago. The latest idea being floated is the creation of “popular committees” in Baghdad and its suburbs, which would assist the security forces. The first group to publicly acquiesce to this plan is an Iranian supported militia with ties to Maliki. That raises fears that the committees could lead to official backing of the various militias that still exist within the country and the creation of new ones. This could be a step backwards for the country, as stability is not served by supporting neighborhood gunmen.

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Sheikh Aifan Issawi of the Albu Issa tribe was an important leader in the Anbar Awakening. While most of his tribe joined the insurgency and worked with Al Qaeda all the way up to 2007, he followed his own path trying to cooperate with the Americans in his hometown of Fallujah. He went on to turn his exploits on the battlefield into a seat on the provincial council in 2009. He was later appointed to parliament as part of the Iraqi National Movement in 2011. Unfortunately, in 2013 insurgents caught up with him and assassinated him. Issawi was one of the prominent sheikhs in Anbar that turned his role in the Awakening into a successful political career until his untimely death.

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In October 2013 a new study was released in the PLOS Medicine journal estimating the number of deaths following the 2003 invasion of Iraq. It attempted to avoid and make up for some of the criticism of previous surveys that looked at fatalities in the country. These included the 2004 and 2006 Lancet papers, the 2004 Iraq Living Conditions Survey, the 2007 Opinion Business Research (ORB) poll, and the 2008 Iraq Family Health Survey. The new report estimated 460,000 excess deaths occurred after the fall of Saddam Hussein. It didn’t give a figure for all violent deaths, but did say that for adults aged 15-60 132,000 died because of violence from 2003-2011, which is very similar to Iraq Body Count and figures recorded by the U.S. military. The Iraqi Family Health Survey and the Iraq Living Conditions were both within the range of the new one as well, while the two Lancet reports and the ORB questionnaire were far outside of it. While no survey can be authoritative the new PLOS one at least confirms that a few of the earlier estimates were capturing some of the death and destruction released by the Iraq War, while largely repudiating the Lancet articles.

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Iraq’s Anbar province used to be one of the centers of the insurgency, and it might be becoming one again. Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha recently told the press that 40% of the governorate was under the control of militants. Today there is a free flow of fighters back and forth across the Syrian border. Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) is targeting the security forces and local politicians. More importantly, it is attempting to gain control of territory as there have been several assaults upon towns and cities this year. This has occurred despite the Iraqi security forces (ISF) announcing one operation after another. Its tactics of raids and retreats have proven largely ineffective, and the mass arrests that have taken place are counterproductive. Violence is picking up across many parts of Iraq, but Anbar is one specific area where insurgents are attempting to establish a permanent presence.

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Violence in Iraq remained at extremely high levels in October 2013. There were waves of mass casualty bombings in the central part of the country. Insurgents looked to be re-establishing themselves in some of their former strongholds such as Anbar and Ninewa. That was shown in the monthly death tolls that were just released with both Iraq Body Count and the United Nations recording over 7,000 killed in the first ten months of the year.

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Ten months since the protests started in Anbar in December 2012 it now appears that a political deal might be cut to end them. Speaker Osama Nujafi’s Mutahidun Party has gone from one of their biggest supporters to now wanting to cut a deal with Baghdad to end them Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is under pressure to make some concessions given the deteriorating security situation in the country. The change in mood has been seen over the last two months as the premier has met with various Anbar notables including Governor Ahmed Diab and Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha the head of the Awakening. It’s far from clear whether any meaningful will come from these talks, but the effort is under way to conclude the demonstrations.

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As security has deteriorated in northern and central Iraq the south has not been saved. Al Qaeda in Iraq has launched a sustained campaign to bomb major cities at least once a month in southern Iraq. Babil province with its mixed population has seen constant insurgent activity. Due to the sectarian attacks upon Shiites people have begun retaliatory attacks upon Sunnis in Basra as well. Despite all that most of the population in the south has not witnessed the violence seen in the rest of the country.

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Southern Iraq has witnessed plenty of violence in 2013, but it pails in comparison to central and northern Iraq. While a province like Baghdad might have five to ten attacks per day, some provinces in the south have that many in a year. Different governorates have also gone through different experiences. In Babil for example there has been a relentless wave of attacks mostly aimed at average citizens. Basra has seen a mix of Al Qaeda in Iraq bombings, and religious, political, and sectarian violence. Karbala and Najaf have gone through repeated attempts to stir sectarian tensions by attacking pilgrims heading to the holy cities. Wasit on the other hand has experienced an increasing number of insurgent bombings. Other governorates like Muthanna and Maysan have only seen occasional militant operations. Al Qaeda in Iraq has picked up the pace of its operations in the south carrying out more aggressive and coordinated bombings, but these are still occasional rather than normal events.

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Iraq’s Fallujah has once again become a center for insurgent attacks in the country. Most recently the mayor of the city was assassinated in November 2013. Afterward the provincial council voted to replace the chief of police for the governorate due to the deteriorating security situation. The police and the army have failed to protect the city, and it appears that militants have free reign there.

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In just the last few years Turkey’s policy towards Iraq has gone through a dramatic transformation. For decades, Ankara was opposed to any form of autonomy or independence for Iraq’s Kurds, while it denied rights to its own Kurdish population, and fought a long insurgency led by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Since the second term of Turkish Prime Minister Recept Tayyip Erdogan from the Justice and Development Party (AKP), that has begun to change. Turkey now stands as the largest investor in the Kurdistan region, it has become one of the main backers of Kurdish President Massoud Barzani, has cut deals with Irbil to allow it to truck in oil, and is working on building pipelines between the two. This has led to talk that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) will eventually move towards independence from Iraq, with the help of Turkey, something that was unthinkable just a little while ago. To help explain why Ankara has changed its stance is Professor Henri Barkey who teachers International Relations at Lehigh University, and who has written extensively about the Middle East and Turkey.

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Sheikh Ali Hatem Sulaiman is from the Dualim tribe one of the largest in Iraq’s Anbar province. His story is symbolic of what beset the Awakening after its successful fight against the insurgency. Once it secured the governorate, the Awakening attempted to enter politics, and that brought out all kinds of personal rivalries, and ended up dividing and ending the tribal movement. Sulaiman went from threatening the Iraqi Islamic Party that ruled Anbar, to making a deal with it. He was an ally of Sheikh Abu Risha then became his critic. He then allied with Premier Nouri al-Maliki only to turn on him. He is currently part of the Anbar protest movement where he has made a number of inflammatory statements against the government. It seemed like fighting the insurgency was the easy part for the Awakening, because when it attempted to take control of Anbar and gain a voice in Baghdad the movement fractured.

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