Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[wm]

Breedlove is AF and understands the use of ISR

ISR to the USAF is not intelligence-it is generally little more than imagery or other technical data used to identify/confirm likely targets. It is better understood as combat information. The meaning of ISR became so watered down that the Army officially stopped using the acronym.

BTW imagery from 27 March is now 2 weeks old. A lot can change in two weeks. DS and OIF are examples of what can happen in a week or two.

[OUTLAW 09]

ISR to the USAF is not intelligence-it is generally little more than imagery or other technical data used to identify/confirm likely targets. It is better understood as combat information. The meaning of ISR became so watered down that the Army officially stopped using the acronym.

BTW imagery from 27 March is now 2 weeks old. A lot can change in two weeks. DS and OIF are examples of what can happen in a week or two.

wm---ISR to the AF is in fact intelligence as the term ISR implies a wide spectrum of platforms from ground, aerial, and satellite which feeds an extensive AF intelligence process---the Army shifted gears because Army Intelligence wanted a better term "in their eyes" and shifted to information operations in 2013 with the new FM rewrites which opened Pandora's box for interpretations and the conversations over that shift have not died down as information operations is usually associated to IT.

The term shift was actually caused by Army intelligence just because the number of platforms that grew after Iraq became so extensive that it changed almost weekly on platforms and capabilities and no one could keep up with the changes. Also the term ISR prior to the final rewrite was anchored in the new targeting FM and then they had to change the FM because Army intel did not on time submit their term change as they wanted everyone else to come to their term. That heartburn is still being discussed and it might go back to the old use of the term in the coming FM rewrites in the next few years.

What is unusual is the use of open source to brief official positions---yes they are from the 27th but look at the initial Russian response--you guys are lying---they are from an old exercise to just it's just propaganda from NATO in order to hype NATO's importance.

That argument then led Breedlove to go back and provide open source imagery on the before and after---the Russians have said nothing---literally nothing.

Street talk has Digital Global still covering the same areas and prior to the 4 country meeting next week street rumors have it NATO will release again in order to insure Russia does not use the common statement "we have pulled back and are drawing down" --why because if one read Kerry's statement from a day ago---if no drawback then we expect not much out of the meeting so he is setting the stage for nothing to come out of the meeting and is fully prepared to blame Russia for the failure.

Whereas Putin is still trying to get on that meeting agenda is gas threat and the neutrality of the Ukraine anchored there as well--which is not the intent of the EU/NATO/US so Kerry has programmed failure to stop the Russian attempts to change the reason for the meetings and to give Russia a global platform indicating they were right in the Crimea.

[OUTLAW 09]

This video shows the takeover of a Ukrainian police station today---if one watches it closely the armed in camo types appear to be well versed in small unit actions on a key building.

If seems to be an exact repeat of the armed so called "non Russian" uniformed Russian soldiers who took over official buildings prior to a call for elections in Crimea. Also looks like the local State Security SBU leader was fired for failing to respond or actually refusing to respond---must have been a KGB trained type.

Looks like Russia is moving to have on the ground events in place to show the West at the meeting of 4 next week that 1) Ukraine is not in charge, 2) the need for the Russia term of federalization/new constitution based on that Russia term of federalization and 3) this is the critical piece I think that they want to return the ousted president as they get taking about him as the only legitimately elected president.

This is due to the fact that Russia in it's call for the meeting next views the Ukrainian representation to be illegal and demanded the West not recognize them and they should only recognize the ousted president.

http://lb.ua/news/2014/04/12/262895_...a_zdaniya.html

[wm]

wm---ISR to the AF is in fact intelligence as the term ISR implies a wide spectrum of platforms from ground, aerial, and satellite which feeds an extensive AF intelligence process

Have it your way. But what the term "intelligence" means to USAF practitioners is not what it means to others. I still stand by my assertion that it is better understood as combat information because the USAF focus is on exploitation of the collected data rather than analysis of the collected data. The difference, by way of analogy, is not unlike the difference that Outlaw, Mirhond, and others have debated over "Russians" and "Russians"--(sorry for the lack of Cyrillic characters to capture the difference between the Russian words).

[OUTLAW 09]

Have it your way. But what the term "intelligence" means to USAF practitioners is not what it means to others. I still stand by my assertion that it is better understood as combat information because the USAF focus is on exploitation of the collected data rather than analysis of the collected data. The difference, by way of analogy, is not unlike the difference that Outlaw, Mirhond, and others have debated over "Russians" and "Russians"--(sorry for the lack of Cyrillic characters to capture the difference between the Russian words).

wm---would tend to agree with you ---there is that famous but---as the ISR capabilities especially since 2012 have increased in ways not before seen the AF and the Army via INSCOM have actually moved to analysis and exploitation at the same time---the basic problem which I saw over and over as the AF and or the aerial side of the Army detected sometimes tens of targets the ground force was incapable in following up on the hits.

If we expand how the jointness has worked you can see it in the FMV (or what the army calls video porn feeds being both collected and analyzed within hours from centralized analysis centers ---again the critical point the ground is often unwilling or incapable of engaging many of the hits being analyzed.

We can disagree on the difference between collection and analysis or whether is now being actually merged---but the big problem was the shift from the term ISR to the term intelligence collection operations which completely misses exactly how ISR was used by the Army in ground operations.

[JMA]

Not sure about the quality of those clowns... they took 2 minutes and about three attempts to pull the grid off the window. Keystone cops?

This video shows the takeover of a Ukrainian police station today---if one watches it closely the armed in camo types appear to be well versed in small unit actions on a key building.

[OUTLAW 09]

Not sure about the quality of those clowns... they took 2 minutes and about three attempts to pull the grid off the window. Keystone cops?

JMA---here is an interesting development concerning the BMD destroyer underway from Rota to the Black Sea.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...into-russ.aspx

[JMA]

I just don't understand the US.

Why deny anything? Tell them that due to their irrational behaviour the US is putting a contingency plan in place.

For heavens sake show some balls.

JMA---here is an interesting development concerning the BMD destroyer underway from Rota to the Black Sea.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...into-russ.aspx

[OUTLAW 09]

At one of the police station attacks yesterday there was a small report of the non Russian uniformed Russians carrying the AK 100 series weapons.

The AK 100 series is strictly a Russian Army weapon and the Ukraine has not such weapons.

At an attack in Donesk earlier this week the AK 100 series was seen in a photo which mirhond attempted to side track by trying to compare the rifle to the AK74 or 74M.

Then this came up concerning the attacks yesterday.

The alleged Russians were armed with Russian-made AK 100 submachine guns that are only used by Russian military forces, said Interior Minister Arsen Avakov.

[Stan]

In short, Russian President Vladimir Putin may not like this development much. But investors in Lockheed Martin and Raytheon should be pleased.

And indeed I am very pleased

[Biggus]

At one of the police station attacks yesterday there was a small report of the non Russian uniformed Russians carrying the AK 100 series weapons.

The AK 100 series is strictly a Russian Army weapon and the Ukraine has not such weapons.

At an attack in Donesk earlier this week the AK 100 series was seen in a photo which mirhond attempted to side track by trying to compare the rifle to the AK74 or 74M.

Then this came up concerning the attacks yesterday.

The alleged Russians were armed with Russian-made AK 100 submachine guns that are only used by Russian military forces, said Interior Minister Arsen Avakov.

I wouldn't read too much into this. The AK100 series includes the AK74M. The AK74M is the standard Russian rifle, and it's also used in some quantity by Ukrainian forces. Mirhond was indeed correct about the picture discussed several pages ago being an AK74M.

The bulk of the non-Russian Russians I've seen in Sloviansk have been equipped with old AK74 variants (AK74, AKS74, AKS74U). There was a guy with a suppressed M4 clone that was spotted in another area that had a case of spontaneous-desire-to-be-Russian. Again, nothing too conclusive.

What I have noticed over the last few weeks is that the guys doing the heavy lifting tend to have some fairly high-end Russian load-bearing gear, and the guys being bussed in for moral support seem to have old surplus stuff. When you see a large number of guys with loaded weapons who look like they've walked straight out of an SRVV, Sposn or SSO catalogue, it's hard to dispute that they're Russian.

Edit: It appears that the Sloviansk guys were ex-Berkut.

[davidbfpo]

Professor John Schindler tweeted earlier:

Kremlin looks stronger & more resolute than Kyiv; many UKR security officials, not fools, are acting accordingly.

A retweet from an ex-REFL journalist Maxim Eristavi:

The level of passive defection among top-security/police chiefs in Eastern Ukraine is staggering. A complete Kyiv failure to confront it

The official 'anti-terrorist' action yesterday in Sloviansk.

[OUTLAW 09]

I wouldn't read too much into this. The AK100 series includes the AK74M. The AK74M is the standard Russian rifle, and it's also used in some quantity by Ukrainian forces. Mirhond was indeed correct about the picture discussed several pages ago being an AK74M.

The bulk of the non-Russian Russians I've seen in Sloviansk have been equipped with old AK74 variants (AK74, AKS74, AKS74U). There was a guy with a suppressed M4 clone that was spotted in another area that had a case of spontaneous-desire-to-be-Russian. Again, nothing too conclusive.

What I have noticed over the last few weeks is that the guys doing the heavy lifting tend to have some fairly high-end Russian load-bearing gear, and the guys being bussed in for moral support seem to have old surplus stuff. When you see a large number of guys with loaded weapons who look like they've walked straight out of an SRVV, Sposn or SSO catalogue, it's hard to dispute that they're Russian.

Edit: It appears that the Sloviansk guys were ex-Berkut.

Biggus---there is some confusion in the use of the term AK 100 vs 100 series---the AK100 is in fact the AK74 if one uses the term AK 100 series then in fact this particular series (101-105 with multiple different variants) is used only by the Russian Army.

If one takes the Interior Minister at his word and his comments tying the AK100 to the Russians then in fact he was really referring to the 100 series. There have been only recently two photos) (one in the east and once in the Crimea) showing the 100 series and both had a kaki colored pad attached over the indentation of the rifle butt on the right hand side of the butt not seen in the other photos of the 74Ms. There has been some speculation on the pad use but it has been tied to spatnaz units and their load bearing gear.

It is just me but I would tend to place some faith in an Interior Minister who probably came out of the SBU to know his weapons and what the Russians use.

"Not introduced until nearly 1994, the Hundred Series is a rather rare rifle group. Most versions produced are 5.45mm or 7.62mm versions, but a few 5.56mm versions were also made. Most of the Hundred Series ended up in use by Airborne, Air Assault, special operations, or VIP protection units, but perhaps 5000 or so made it into the international market, and somewhat ironically, were mostly bought by Americans."

[mirhond]

The AK 100 series is strictly a Russian Army weapon and the Ukraine has not such weapons.

At an attack in Donesk earlier this week the AK 100 series was seen in a photo which mirhond attempted to side track by trying to compare the rifle to the AK74 or 74M.

The alleged Russians were armed with Russian-made AK 100 submachine guns that are only used by Russian military forces, said Interior Minister Arsen Avakov.

Oh, come on! You don't even trying to make your bullshиt consistent. Russian Army does not have 100 series AKs a standart weapon - this stuff is for export only. (well, may be Spetznas or others like them have it)

ps. AK is an assault rifle, not a submashinegun.
Yours, Captain Obvious.

still awaiting a copy of your ID which you find X number of reasons why it cannot be attached. Or do you not have an ID that you would like to share with us?

April 10, 2014 17:16 Decision to incorporate Crimea was made following sociological polls, it wasn't planned initially - Putin

NOVO-OGARYOVO. April 10 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said the final decision on the inclusion of Crimea and Sevastopol into Russia was made in regards to a sociological poll conducted in Crimea.

"I made my decisions after it became clear how people felt. We did not prepare for such events. We could imagine how people felt, but we didn't know it for a fact," Putin said during a meeting with All-Russia Popular Front activists.

[OUTLAW 09]

Professor John Schindler tweeted earlier:

A retweet from an ex-REFL journalist Maxim Eristavi:

The official 'anti-terrorist' action yesterday in Sloviansk.

David---now that Ukrainian security blood has flowed in the retaking of buildings---think you will seen an aggressive move by the Ukrainians now to use force at the same time telling the Russians to get out of the agitation business.

Russia is agitating to give an excuse to move in and at the same time to "prove" the poor ethnic Russians are being beaten up on by the neo Nazi's and the illegitimate government.

What is more interesting is the polling conducted over the last few days in the east where a relative majority do not want to be taken in by Russia, do want some form of decentralization which actually does make some sense and do not want what Russia has been calling "federalization"---think the Brits called it for awhile devolution---and do not want the taking over of buildings.

This group is what I call the silent majority while the more aggressive small group coupled with Russia special ops/GRU is doing the violence. It will be interesting in the next day or two how the local oligarchs swing.

[OUTLAW 09]

Oh, come on! You don't even trying to make your bullshиt consistent. Russian Army does not have 100 series AKs a standart weapon - this stuff is for export only. (well, may be Spetznas or others like them have it)

ps. AK is an assault rifle, not a submashinegun.
Yours, Captain Obvious.

So mirhond---still awaiting a copy of your ID which is you seem to really not want to provide and by the why one does not have to be FSB to be FSB.

1. you did not respond to your comment equating Putin and Hitler---hope the FSB did not pick that one up.
2. even worse you do not even know what is being used within the Russian army other wise you would have picked up on the following comment which you seemed to ignore---well done again proving you only respond to what you want nothing more nothing less.

"Not introduced until nearly 1994, the Hundred Series is a rather rare rifle group. Most versions produced are 5.45mm or 7.62mm versions, but a few 5.56mm versions were also made. Most of the Hundred Series ended up in use by Airborne, Air Assault, special operations, or VIP protection units, but perhaps 5000 or so made it into the international market, and somewhat ironically, were mostly bought by Americans."

SO again mirhond are you lying and or not wanting to hear the truth?

Oh, come on! You don't even trying to make your bullshиt consistent. Russian Army does not have 100 series AKs a standart weapon - this stuff is for export only. (well, may be Spetznas or others like them have it)

So mirhond (well, may be Spetznas or others like them have it) are not part of the Russian Army?---come on my friend.

NOTE: --this particular mirhond is not the previous mirhond otherwise you would have known exactly the Russian Army is issued the 74M a photo you yourself posted under the name mirhond.

Come on mirhond get with the program and at least remember what you have previously written.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---more information from original Russian sources that speaks about the 100s and the AN94---if you take the time to Google you will find articles on the 100s being used by the Russian Special Operations, Airborne units, air Assault and the Ministry of the Interior Forces ie GRU due to it's accuracy in auto and semi automatic fire.

And the article is from 2009 five years ago and shortly after the Georgian invasion.

http://en.ria.ru/analysis/20110929/167252191.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Oh, come on! You don't even trying to make your bullshиt consistent. Russian Army does not have 100 series AKs a standart weapon - this stuff is for export only. (well, may be Spetznas or others like them have it)

ps. AK is an assault rifle, not a submashinegun.
Yours, Captain Obvious.



1. Lets work this out Bayesian way. Give an a priori probability on the event that I'll send you any ID.
2. Link or GTFO.

MIRHOND---so you agreed with my previous comments on this Interfax press release that the Russian leadership is leading their country based on secretly conducted polling?

So in fact if you read the complete response and agree that Putin is leading the entire country of Russia by secret polling is that not like leading a country by using a "crystal ball"?

So if Putin's secret polling and his "crystal ball" indicate to him that he should occupy Alaska because Russia did not get enough money for it years ago when they sold it to the US---you would follow him?

Or better if his "crystal ball" called polling indicated to him that the large Russian speaking community in Berlin Germany is being mistreated by Germans he will what roll tanks to Berlin a second time? Come on mirhond.

Hey was not the election in the Crimea kind of like polling---do you want to join Russia or do you want to join Russia?--now that was a really sociologically driven poll if one asks me.

We in the US often complain that politicians respond only to something when it affects their poll numbers so are you equating Putin to an US politician---?

Think Senator McCain might take offense to that comparison since he is on the Russian sanctions list?

Come on mirhond get with the program.

Still awaiting a copy of your ID and do not try to figure out a new tap dancing response---just post it.

[carl]

Mirhond hasn't been up in 3 days and today he's/they're up. So I guess that means something has gone down or may likely go down today.

Mirhond, a smidgen of frustration is beginning show through on your part. Very bad form.

[OUTLAW 09]

Mirhond---here is a great site on “scientific polling” that is being used currently in eastern Ukraine where if you believe in Putin’s polling you should be there currently.

AND since you speak fluent Russian you can translate the website for us that is if you agree with the website.

http://rusvesna.su/

One of the Kremlin’s key tactics is to obscure the origins of those forces spearheading its operation in east Ukraine, and one of the ways it’s doing that is to promote what might be called insurrectional tourism.

“Russian Spring,” as it turns out, is not only a revanchist motto out of Moscow, which we started hearing before the Crimea annexation, it’s a website, too. Adventure seekers who dream about reviving the U.S.S.R. can go online to share information about how to travel to Ukraine and, well, make a terrible mess there. Before their departure soldiers of fortune are advised to familiarize themselves with the slogan, “Leave for the front! Glory to Russia!” along with rules of behavior for a Russian tourist who wishes to get to “the territory of brotherly Ukraine”:

“From the beginning of the Crimea events on March 2 until the present time Ukraine has refused entry to more than 10,000 Russians and the figure is growing every day,” cautions the advisory. “The situation is created artificially to reduce the quantity of people who could be involved in the conflict on the side of Russian-speaking Ukrainians.”

So, as the “Russian Spring” site recommends, “you should comply with certain rules” and know certain facts. Here is a somewhat abbreviated but informative checklist that suggests, among other things, the kinds of “tourists” likely to be crossing the border:

1. Ukrainian border guards are loyal to Kiev, which has given them the order to look for any reason to refuse entry to people with Russian passports.
2. “Even if you have just one camouflaged T-shirt, some pepper spray or a knife you could be deported back to Russia as a commando. So if you need these things you can purchase them in Ukrainian shops: the prices are not higher than Russians ones.”
3. “We advise you not to publish anti-Bandera [that is, anti-Ukrainian] propaganda on your social network accounts.”
4. “Remember that your mobiles can have undesirable photos such as military patriotic events with your participation. Don't save SMS texts like, ‘Left for front, glory to Russia!’ and similar ones.

Among the most often cited reasons for refusing Russians entry into Ukraine, according to the web site’s checklist, are:

1. Lack of the required $600 in cash guaranteeing financial support.
2. Inability to confirm the purpose of the visit to Ukraine or the precise destination.
3. Subject has military bearing, short haircut, brought a military uniform or wears the Cossack chevron insignia.
4. Subject has the certificate of a combat veteran.
5. Subject has athletic build, calloused knuckles, broken nose – characteristics of martial arts practitioners.
6. Subject has “Airborne Troops” tattoo or similar.
7. Border guards discover that subject is a reserve officer of the Russian Federation navy.
8. There is a message on subject’s mobile such as, “Left for Crimea, from there to the front to fight, if something comes up, say I am ill.”

The incriminating items most often founded by Ukrainian border guards, according to “Russian Spring,” are: military belts, blackjacks, binoculars, Russian flags, combat knives, military certificate of a squad leader of airborne troops or other special units.

NOW mirhond---this is the interesting part of the polling that Putin is using to guide Russian foreign affairs"

But, obviously, Kiev’s border security policy isn’t working all that well.

A journalist from Russia’s Moskva FM Radio broadcasting from Donetsk asked a local rebel commander, "Can you tell me your name?" He answered: "Of course, I am Paramonov Pavel Vladimirovytch.”
"Are you from Donetsk?"
"Of course not. I am from Yefremov, Tula region [Russia]."
"What are you doing in Donetsk?"
“I am helping brotherly people to defend their rights, do you have another questions?"