Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[JWing]

That's silly. It has been years since we left and years since we had much influence on how the Iraqi gov handled things both politically and militarily. From what I've read they've done a bunch of the idiot things we did in the beginning until we wised up.

As soon as the U.S. withdrew its military the Iraqi security forces reverted to the same kind of strong arm tactics Saddam carried out and the Americans did pre-Surge. That being raiding and then leaving areas, mass arrests, taking families hostage of people on wanted lists, indefinite detention, abuse and torture of prisoners, etc. The positives of U.S. style COIN never sunk in with Iraqis and they went back to what they were used to doing once we departed.

[JWing]

If you want a backgrounder on the Iraqi insurgency, the Islamic State and the other groups, their ideology and where operate please read my interview with Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi

http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...interview.html

Also must recommend my interview with Alexandre Massimo again on how the security situation deteriorated after 2011 in Iraq. How the insurgency was able to rebuild itself and how the Iraqi forces became ineffective.

http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...situation.html

[carl]

As soon as the U.S. withdrew its military the Iraqi security forces reverted to the same kind of strong arm tactics Saddam carried out and the Americans did pre-Surge. That being raiding and then leaving areas, mass arrests, taking families hostage of people on wanted lists, indefinite detention, abuse and torture of prisoners, etc. The positives of U.S. style COIN never sunk in with Iraqis and they went back to what they were used to doing once we departed.

Joel:

When I said "...I've read they've done a bunch of the idiot things we did in the beginning until we wised up.", I should have added that I read it at your site, Musings On Iraq. You do a brilliant job.

[JWing]

Thanks Carl!

It looks like as ISIS is mobilizing and marching towards Baghdad so is Iran. it is sending in advisers, special forces, weapons and money and recruiting throughout central and southern Iraq to form new militia units to fight the insurgency. This is what they did during the previous Iraqi civil war with the Mahdi Army and Special Groups, and what it did on an even larger scale in Syria. Tehran is not going to let a friendly government go do to Sunni Islamists.

[Ray]

Iraq is like any Islamic country.

The social and the governance model is shaped by the norms of the religion.

The religion is very clear where the rules are inflexible and 'detours' are practically unacceptable.

In the rigid matrix of the religion, only a rigid iron hand (if you will) can succeed.

Take any Islamic country and it will be noticed that whenever democracy has been tried it has failed. Even Pakistan is seesaw in democracy and military dictatorship. Its current democracy is in turmoil with the fundamentalist holding the nation at ransom.

Egypt is back to a military leadership in the guise of democracy.

Syria is in turmoil.

Turkey is hardly a democracy.

Therefore, it is better to let them live the way they want and not superimpose what others feel is 'right'.

The happenings in Iraq and Syria only indicates that we are making it fair grounds for the fundamentalists to run a riot.

Watch this space for what happen in Afghanistan and the experiment in democracy.

[OUTLAW 09]

Iraq is like any Islamic country.

The social and the governance model is shaped by the norms of the religion.

The religion is very clear where the rules are inflexible and 'detours' are practically unacceptable.

In the rigid matrix of the religion, only a rigid iron hand (if you will) can succeed.

Take any Islamic country and it will be noticed that whenever democracy has been tried it has failed. Even Pakistan is seesaw in democracy and military dictatorship. Its current democracy is in turmoil with the fundamentalist holding the nation at ransom.

Egypt is back to a military leadership in the guise of democracy.

Syria is in turmoil.

Turkey is hardly a democracy.

Therefore, it is better to let them live the way they want and not superimpose what others feel is 'right'.

The happenings in Iraq and Syria only indicates that we are making it fair grounds for the fundamentalists to run a riot.

Watch this space for what happen in Afghanistan and the experiment in democracy.

Ray---I had a very good Iraqi/Kurd as a Cat 3 interpreter in Iraq who had fought as an Iraqi CPT in the artillery during the Iranian /Iraq war and who at the same time was an Peshmerga intelligence officer and who had family members gassed by Saddam before going to Canada.

At the beginning of the sectarian violence which really started in late 2005 not as many thought in mid to late 2006---I sat with him once and discussed the increased ethnic violence and the barbarian results we were seeing in both the Shia and Sunni communities.

He said something that has always stuck with me. He said---hey Shia and Sunnis are Arabs and as Arabs they will not negotiate a problem if each one believes themselves to be correct---they will beat each other to a pulp and when both are on the ground and can barely move then and only then will they negotiate what in the end is what they should have done in the first place.

He went on to say you Americans are trying with the surge to put off this blood letting because you Americans cannot stand to see "blood" being let when in your democratic eyes there is a solution to always be found.

When I worked with Slavic types in the last couple of years---they had a similar concept---ie you can tell us the truth, but we will beat you up for telling us the truth, then when we finally see that it was the truth then we will beat you up for not convincing us it was in fact the truth in the first place.

[ganulv]

He said something that has always stuck with me. He said---hey Shia and Sunnis are Arabs and as Arabs they will not negotiate a problem if each one believes themselves to be correct---they will beat each other to a pulp and when both are on the ground and can barely move then and only then will they negotiate what in the end is what they should have done in the first place.

That sounds a whole lot like the quote attributed to Churchill, “Americans will always do the right thing, after they have tried everything else.”

[OUTLAW 09]

That sounds a whole lot like the quote attributed to Churchill, “Americans will always do the right thing, after they have tried everything else.”

That's why the Army has a COIN FM. But it did not work in Iraq and I hear no questioning of that failure that would reflect they are trying everything else.

[TheCurmudgeon]

So, if I may generalize, what I hear Ray and Outlaw saying is that, it is not being Islamic, or being Arab, or being Slavic. It is having an in-group identity that is powerful enough to disallow any recognition of another group's equality or the potential for them being right. That in this situation, power sharing between groups is not possible ... one group must dominate the other, and they will fight to the death until that domination is established.

I guess that does not bod well for a Sunni, Shia, Kurd State.

[Ray]

So, if I may generalize, what I hear Ray and Outlaw saying is that, it is not being Islamic, or being Arab, or being Slavic. It is having an in-group identity that is powerful enough to disallow any recognition of another group's equality or the potential for them being right. That in this situation, power sharing between groups is not possible ... one group must dominate the other, and they will fight to the death until that domination is established.

That is what mankind is all about.

Check history.

[OUTLAW 09]

So, if I may generalize, what I hear Ray and Outlaw saying is that, it is not being Islamic, or being Arab, or being Slavic. It is having an in-group identity that is powerful enough to disallow any recognition of another group's equality or the potential for them being right. That in this situation, power sharing between groups is not possible ... one group must dominate the other, and they will fight to the death until that domination is established.

I guess that does not bod well for a Sunni, Shia, Kurd State.

Well stated---we might in fact call this a "radicalization" of a population and we are seeing this at work in the eastern Ukraine ---the clue is in finding the "trigger" that sets off this "radicalization". The trigger might come from inside the population or from an outside agitator who understands just how to "radicalize" the target population. There is always a buried trigger.

By the way "radicialization" is not discussed in the new COIN FM.

[Ray]

Ray---

At the beginning of the sectarian violence which really started in late 2005 not as many thought in mid to late 2006---I sat with him once and discussed the increased ethnic violence and the barbarian results we were seeing in both the Shia and Sunni communities.

He said something that has always stuck with me. He said---hey Shia and Sunnis are Arabs and as Arabs they will not negotiate a problem if each one believes themselves to be correct---they will beat each other to a pulp and when both are on the ground and can barely move then and only then will they negotiate what in the end is what they should have done in the first place.

That is right. More than they hate others, they hate each other i.e. Shia vs Sunni. See what is happening in Pakistan, which is one of the better nations with some democratic and legal sanctity.

It was a regular problem in India, especially during Moharrum. I got caught in one such gunfight.

However, by the Grace of God (any God) it is thing of the past.

[slapout9]

Iraq is like any Islamic country.

The social and the governance model is shaped by the norms of the religion.

The religion is very clear where the rules are inflexible and 'detours' are practically unacceptable.

In the rigid matrix of the religion, only a rigid iron hand (if you will) can succeed.

Take any Islamic country and it will be noticed that whenever democracy has been tried it has failed. Even Pakistan is seesaw in democracy and military dictatorship. Its current democracy is in turmoil with the fundamentalist holding the nation at ransom.

Egypt is back to a military leadership in the guise of democracy.

Syria is in turmoil.

Turkey is hardly a democracy.

Therefore, it is better to let them live the way they want and not superimpose what others feel is 'right'.

The happenings in Iraq and Syria only indicates that we are making it fair grounds for the fundamentalists to run a riot.

Watch this space for what happen in Afghanistan and the experiment in democracy.

Ray,
You are a very wise man! I hope you can travel because our Generals.... well they suck and they loose alot.....so there may be a few openings here in the USA very shortly.

[OUTLAW 09]

Joel:

When I said "...I've read they've done a bunch of the idiot things we did in the beginning until we wised up.", I should have added that I read it at your site, Musings On Iraq. You do a brilliant job.

Carl---here is the reasoning behind my comment and JWing actually indirectly confirms my comments to be accurate.

Where in the entire new and even in the old FM 3-24 is it in bold letters on the first page stated "Beware if the host nation does not follow the intent and goals of COIN to the exact letter the US Army follows it it is doomed to failure".

Basically JWing is admitting that even with all the mentoring, COIN classes for their troops and officers, even being trained in our COIN image and armed as we were--nothing was absorbed as JWing admits.

So looking back --what was exactly wrong and why was that failure not mentioned anywhere in the COIN manuals old and new?

Interesting we as a Force always talk as if COIN was a magic potion that will always succeed-but nowhere in all the COIN chatter and FMs is discussed the possibility that in the end the target population and their governance may just not want COIN to succeed for whatever reasons---or did I miss that discussion and or did I miss that paragraph in the new FM?

Not so silly was my comment after 4.6 KIAs and over thousands wounded not to count the maimed for life.

The comments concerning just why AQI was not eliminated in Mosul is interesting especially after the 2/3ACRs took beatings in calming it down and since JSOC was constantly targeting AQI members in Mosul?

Go back and read all media reporting during and after the surge---those narratives talk about "successes" not failures in driving AQI out --even the JSOC narrative is along the same lines.

So did we start believing our own PR as by 2008 the Force/National Command Authority wanted a way out?

Lastly we are talking a lot about ISIS but the largest by member count Sunni insurgency group was the Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI) who would often clash with AQI but in the end often worked together with them---they have not/never did "disappear"---they did come out under a new name and were by 2009 undergoing a fairly robust paramilitary training program which if one looks closely maybe the reason for the new effectiveness of the ISIS successes as ISIS has effectively made the transition from a so called "terrorist" group to fighting effectively as a army---almost Mao like.

I have always when in Iraq said to anyone who would listen but actually not many did---whoever trains the Iraq's to fight for a "flag" will be dominant-ISIS is fighting for a "flag" whether we like it or not.

[carl]

Carl---here is the reasoning behind my comment and JWing actually indirectly confirms my comments to be accurate.

Where in the entire new and even in the old FM 3-24 is it in bold letters on the first page stated "Beware if the host nation does not follow the intent and goals of COIN to the exact letter the US Army follows it it is doomed to failure".

Basically JWing is admitting that even with all the mentoring, COIN classes for their troops and officers, even being trained in our COIN image and armed as we were--nothing was absorbed as JWing admits.

So looking back --what was exactly wrong and why was that failure not mentioned anywhere in the COIN manuals old and new?

Interesting we as a Force always talk as if COIN was a magic potion that will always succeed-but nowhere in all the COIN chatter and FMs is discussed the possibility that in the end the target population and their governance may just not want COIN to succeed for whatever reasons---or did I miss that discussion and or did I miss that paragraph in the new FM?

Well if you teach somebody to wash their hands after using the latrine and they don't do it and get sick, that doesn't mean washing your hands after using the latrine isn't a damn good idea.