Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[OUTLAW 09]

JWing---seems like the ISF have stalled in Tikrit and in Anbar and other than appearing to be building a defensive line around Baghdad and to the north/west/east there is not much happening.

In some aspects this defensive line is in fact a de facto division of Iraq along the Sunni/Kurdish regions.

Also appears that Iran is getting nervous about the split being seen and is trying to verbally impress the Kurds---the Kurds have their own region now and I think in the long term they will be clashing with Iran whose Kurdish population are not that small.Baghdad

(IraqiNews.com) The Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for the Arab-African Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said on Sunday that the wise Iraqi Kurdish leaders are not thinking about autonomy, adding that certain parties that speak of splitting Iraq, are not aware of the consequences.


"A statement by the Iranian News Agency (IRNA) received by IraqiNews.com quoted Abdollahian, as saying “Iran underlines respecting Iraq’s independence, national sovereignty and solidarity and territorial integrity in line with the country’s Constitution.”

“Wise Iraqi Kurdish leaders do not consider autonomy and adhere to the country’s Constitution, he said,” he added.”

“The remainder of Saddam and Takfiri terrorists will not be allowed to put the Iraqi and regional security at risk,” he concluded.

This last sentence shows me that have bought the Malaki line that is all about the "Baathists/IS" and them seem to be overlooking the serious underlying Sunni grievances with Malaki to led to the uprising.

[JMA]

... that certain parties that speak of splitting Iraq, are not aware of the consequences.

Just what would these consequences be that are worse than the current situation as it develops?

[OUTLAW 09]

Just what would these consequences be that are worse than the current situation as it develops?

JMA---you are right the consequences compared to now might seem to be minor in nature but it opens literally Pandora's box for all of Africa and still some areas in the ME and has a direct impact on the Ukrainian dispute.

If the world accepts the new borders then Putin's moves in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine are as well correct and no one can complain.

I am not against border changes in order to reflect a better understanding of what constitutes a country but there has got to be a method in place.

Meaning de facto yes now the regional ethnic borders of Iraq and Syria have been in fact redrawn---but not to a standard that eliminates futures disputes by the former country that is and or was impacted by the redraw---it opens up 50 years of turmoil into the future.

Not every country can pull off a split such as was done by the former Czechoslovakia by dividing ethnically into two new countries which by the way both are still economically struggling with.

That should be the model but no one suggests that for say Iraq and Syria.

As long as the Shia/Sunni thing is in play then nothing will in the end be settled.

[OUTLAW 09]

JWing---what is going on inside the Iraqi Army--appears that all border troops stationed on the KSA border as well as the Syrian border have been and or were ordered to pull completely back---the KSA spotted some 2500 parked somewhere in the desert and tried to contact them but nothing?

The KSA has moved 30,000 troops to the borders to plug the gap left by the Iraqi Army.

What the heck is going on---any idea?


http://news.yahoo.com/saudi-arabia-d...070023046.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...aq-border.html

[OUTLAW 09]

JMA--the de facto regional separation has occurred and the Kurds picked up on al Baghdadi's Caliphate statement which is all but a Sunni independence statement and now this today out of Erbil from the Kurds---and many assumed there was not linkage between the IS attacks and the former key member of the Islamic Army in Iraq Badash sitting in Erbil? By the way a large amount of the KSA 500M USD to help Sunni refugees in the Kurdish region will be to Erbil.

In Iraq everything plays between the lines and is never what it seems to be.

Erbil (IraqiNews.com) The President of Kurdistan Region, Masoud Barzani, arrived at the parliament building of Kurdistan Region to discuss conducting referendum for announcing independence of Kurdistan Region.

The reporter of Iraqi News (IraqiNews.com) stated “Barzani arrived at the parliament building to discuss setting a time limit to conduct referendum for announcing separation of Kurdistan Region from Iraq.”

Then this came via the Arab League---who is the last time I checked Arabic not Kurdish League---so now they are fearing the same regional breakups are actually ongoing.

http://www.iraqinews.com/features/ar...-independence/

Seems like the ME has learned a thing or two about referendum's from the Crimea and eastern Ukraine---once done it is hard to reverse.

So do the Kurds and Sunni thank Putin?

[JMA]

Seems like the ME has learned a thing or two about referendum's from the Crimea and eastern Ukraine---once done it is hard to reverse.

No, no.

It is only because the US and the EU rolled over and spread their legs over Crimea. The referendum is meaningless but the annexation may be hard to reverse without a lot of pain (mainly on the side of the US and the EU).

The Syrian election was a farce yet it passed and continues to be quoted and referred to.

The joke is on the West...