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Thread: Ukraine: Russo-Ukr War (June-December 2015)

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  1. #1
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    One has to admit that the Russian disinformation and propaganda campaign is actually quite good--they shifted on a dime for Armenia.

    They were running out of topics for the Ukraine but seemed to have found new topics for Armenia.

    US trained professional protestors at a Czech base to repeat Maidan in Yerevan. Nuland involved."
    pic.twitter.com/1kznvdi7D7

    Russian disinformation agency NTV reports "US may be behind Yerevan protests"
    https://twitter.com/rentvchannel/sta...27313480749056

    Armenia is part of my country, Russia. Their Maidan must be crushed at all costs. Like Tienanmen, for example" pic.twitter.com/HiKJcHp2QO

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    One has to admit that the Russian disinformation and propaganda campaign is actually quite good--they shifted on a dime for Armenia.

    They were running out of topics for the Ukraine but seemed to have found new topics for Armenia.

    US trained professional protestors at a Czech base to repeat Maidan in Yerevan. Nuland involved."
    pic.twitter.com/1kznvdi7D7

    Russian disinformation agency NTV reports "US may be behind Yerevan protests"
    https://twitter.com/rentvchannel/sta...27313480749056

    Armenia is part of my country, Russia. Their Maidan must be crushed at all costs. Like Tienanmen, for example" pic.twitter.com/HiKJcHp2QO

    Good to go back a reread this article:

    http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/06/1...irillova-says/

    As a result of its propaganda effort at home, one that has seven main goals, Kseniya Kirillova says, the Kremlin has trapped itself in a situation in which Vladimir Putin can either continue to move toward a broader war or face the prospect of an explosion on the streets of Russian cities and towns. What he can’t do is “turn off the television.”

    In a commentary for Novy Region-2 today, the Seattle-based analyst identifies these seven goals that the Kremlin is pursuing at home and shows how they leave the Russian leadership with few good choices and threaten both the Russian population and the world.

    The seven goals she describes are:

    1.A weakening of critical thought. Moscow’s domestic propaganda effort, she suggests, is directed in the first instance to block any critical thought about what is going on, to provide pre-packaged answers that people are simply to accept, and to drive them into “a situation of chaos and panic” where they will behave as a crowd with the crowd’s “archaic instincts.” To do so, the Kremlin-controlled media plays on the worst rather than the best instincts of the Russian people.

    2.The Creation of the Image of the Enemy. Like its Soviet predecessors, the Russian government now is promoting the idea of a single enemy with tentacles reaching out to the world. Thus, the US is the main enemy, and all of its allies are labeled “’American puppets.’” RISI President Leonid Reshetnikov, a Kremlin advisor, delivers what is now the standard Moscow message: he says that it doesn’t matter whether Americans are Democrats or Republicans: both want to destroy Russia albeit in somewhat different ways. Ultimately, because Russia will resist, they will both turn to war.

    3.Linking All Domestic Problems to Foreign Affairs. In order to silence any criticism of Russia’s mounting problems at home, Kirillova continues, Moscow propaganda seeks to exploit Russian patriotism and to link all problems to the actions of foreigners in general and the US in particular. That silences most Russians who know little about what is happening abroad and are prepared to accept that conspiratorial version of reality.

    4.Stressing the Need for Consolidation of Society to Counter Military Threat. Related to the previous goal, Russian propaganda does not miss a chance to suggest that Russians have no choice but to unite given the foreign threat.

    5.Putin Presented as Only Leader Capable of Opposing this Military Threat. No comment is necessary, Kirillova suggests.

    6.Preparation for Inevitable Deprivations in ‘War Time.’ Given the threatening environment that Moscow media presents, she continues, Russians are encouraged to think that any deprivations they may face are “’a lesser evil’” of what is going to be the inevitable consequence of the current situation: a wider war. They are not encouraged in any case to think about the possibility of changing course.

    7.West Must See Russia as Prepared for War. The only hope Russians are offered by Moscow propaganda is that if they show themselves willing to go to war, the West will conclude that it is too risky to oppose the Kremlin.
    The problem becomes serious when you begin yourself to drink your own "koolaid"--that is dangerous simply because one loses touch to actual on the ground reality and decisions made tend then to be totally wrong and then 3rd order of effects takes over and spirals out of control.

    Russian officials including Putin and his FM are actually getting now a tad paranoid.

    Senior Russian official accused United States of orchestrating coup in Armenia" http://www.rferl.org/content/putin-w.../27091328.html

    Russia will use its armed forces to counter any colour revolutions.
    #AssadStyle
    http://svpressa.ru/war21/article/125858/?vdim25061510
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-25-2015 at 08:21 AM.

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    U.S. Mission to OSCE ✔ @usosce
    We see clear, irrefutable evidence of #Russia command & control support of military ops in #Ukraine: http://1.usa.gov/1QPwMk9

    Humanitarian buckwheat delivery from #Russia. The ammunition depot of the #DNR are fully up to the ceiling. pic.twitter.com/VmuWzfZS4n

    The Kremlin's aim is to neutralize Germany. To make it a neutral player in Europe.
    It puts in question its long alliances" - @jameskirchick

    Kremlin trolls flood social media with lies and hate speech.
    Any article that is slightly critical of Russia, is met with harsh response."

    Watching Russian state media is very useful for a journalist to understand what the Kremlin thinks."
    Me: I say that since years!

    OSCE response to a Russian mercenary claiming he had received humanitarian aid from OSCE in 2014.

    СММ ОБСЄ в Україні @OSCE_SMM
    FACT CHECK:SMM is not humanitarian org.&doesn't provide humanit.aid or other material assistance. Its role-to monitor,report&foster dialogue

    Overnight militants 11 times fired on UKR positions in the Artemivsk direction - Sector "C" spox
    http://www.5.ua/ato-na-shodi/Na-Arte...nku-85124.html

    SBU found a base of the "Islamic state" in Dnipropetrovsk pic.twitter.com/VCkWemEwKp http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/25-june...dnipropetrovsk

    SBU: Volunteer battalion fighters involved in food smuggle to Donetsk, Luhansk republics http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...cs-391951.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Good to go back a reread this article:

    http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/06/1...irillova-says/



    The problem becomes serious when you begin yourself to drink your own "koolaid"--that is dangerous simply because one loses touch to actual on the ground reality and decisions made tend then to be totally wrong and then 3rd order of effects takes over and spirals out of control.

    Russian officials including Putin and his FM are actually getting now a tad paranoid.

    Senior Russian official accused United States of orchestrating coup in Armenia" http://www.rferl.org/content/putin-w.../27091328.html

    Russia will use its armed forces to counter any colour revolutions.
    #AssadStyle
    http://svpressa.ru/war21/article/125858/?vdim25061510
    Russian black humor:

    The CIA raised prices at a Russian owned electricity monopoly causing #ElectricYerevan.

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    Russia's parliament says NATO the “No. 1 threat to the security of the Russian Federation”
    http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/...25-story.html#

    Well worth reading--he fully understands the Russian use of propaganda and disinformation.

    Authoritarian regimes are exploiting globalization and the information age, writes @peterpomeranzev: http://atfp.co/1LjWmct

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    Reference Moldavia and Transnistria----

    BTW--Russian troops have been in Transnistria since 1992 and the OSCE has demanded that Russia withdraw them a number of times recently as there is not a authorized "peacekeeping mission"--Russia just creates a smokescreen to keep them there. Russia has also basically not negotiated at all with Moldavia on this issue for now over seven years and when they do it goes nowhere.

    http://tass.ru/en/world/803816

    Pause in negotiations on Transdniestria leads to escalation of tensions — Russian Foreign Ministry

    World
    June 25, 12:45 UTC+3

    It is important to prevent actions that can lead to further escalation in the current conditions of intensifying provocative rhetoric toward Transdniestria, the foreign ministry said

    MOSCOW, June 25. /TASS/. Russia expresses concern with continuing blockade against Transdniestria that hampers normal social and economic life in the region, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Thursday after the meeting between Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin and Moldova’s Acting Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Osipov.

    "The sides exchanged opinions on the situation around Transdniestria and process of Transdniestrian settlement. The Russian side expressed great concern with continuing blockade against the Dniester River’s left bank that hampers normal social and economic life in the region," the foreign ministry said. "The prolonged pause in the work of permanent consultations on political issues in the framework of negotiations process on the Transdniestrian settlement in the 5+2 format (Russia, Ukraine, OSCE, US and EU plus Moldova and Transdniestria) leads to escalating tensions," the diplomatic agency noted,

    It is important to prevent actions that can lead to further escalation in the current conditions of intensifying provocative rhetoric toward Transdniestria, including in the context of Ukrainian developments, the foreign ministry said. "The Russian side stressed that Chisinau and Tiraspol play the key role in normalizing dialogue between the two banks of the Dniester River," the Russian Foreign Ministry noted.

    "The attention of the Moldovan side was drawn to growing number of instances of hampering planned rotation of Russian servicemen serving as part of the Operational Group of Russian troops and Russian contingent of the Joint Peacekeeping Force under far-fetched pretexts. The sides spoke in favor of looking for compromise solutions of this problem," the foreign ministry noted.

    The sides also discussed during the meeting the current state of Russian-Moldovan relations in different spheres. "The sides expressed mutual intentions to give impetus to bilateral cooperation after the formation of a new cabinet of ministers in the Republic of Moldova," the Russian Foreign Ministry added. "With the aim of looking for ways to solve pressing issues in trade and economic ties, it was agreed to conduct another session of the Intergovernmental commission on economic cooperation by the end of the year," it noted.

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    Putin made in his press conference speech at the Economic Forum in St Petersburg a reference that the Ukraine should do the "special zone for the mercenaries constitutional changes" in order to get talks going--BUT he kept also referring to his form of "federalization" and claiming that the Ukraine was doing nothing on their side.

    Seems that in fact the Ukraine submitted their proposed "decentralization plans" to the Venice Commission for review ------

    Take note, Russia: Venice comm on Ukraine draft const amdmts: a few chgs, but gen "well drafted & deserve support" http://www.venice.coe.int/webforms/d...-PI(2015)008-e

    Appears that Putin was "lying again".

  8. #8
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    In order to fully understand the current Russian mindset one needs to read what some of their officials have written over the last ten years--this article should be fully read to the end and then one gets a feeling for what we are now experiencing with Putin.

    http://www.network54.com/Forum/15533...l+Conspiracies

    Vladislav Surkov’s Secret Speech: How Russia Should Fight International Conspiracies

    November 29 2006 at 10:46 AM

    Created: 12.07.2005 20:19 MSK (GMT +3), Updated: 17:56 MSK

    We publish the full text of a secret speech, delivered by Vladimir Putin’s top aide, the deputy head of Russia’s presidential administration, Vladislav Surkov, speaking to members of the “Delovaya Rossiya” (Business Russia) economic forum, last week. The full text of Surkov’s speech was made public on the Radio Liberty website on July 11.

    Vladislav Surkov: First, I would like to briefly identify our wishes. We wish to see Russia as a democratic state with developed economic institutes. Someone might want this out of sheer sympathy, others adhere to more pragmatic reasons, as recent world history has proven that a complex society model is more efficient, than a vertically integrated one. We have an idea of how long these processes should take. A system as complex, as our country, can not afford fast and dramatic changes. Democracy is not our only objective. We care about the Russian Federation’s sovereignty.

    Open economy and global financial networks tend to render the very notion of sovereignty obsolete. Nowadays, some schools of political thought are dominated by illusions. The success of open economy is impressive. But this does not mean that the global financial system is rock solid, or that it won’t change with time. I think, that some people, blinded by today’s results, have got it wrong. The world has to be integrated, but the value of national cultures does not decrease, it only grows instead. One has to safeguard sovereignty. There is also the immediate task of fighting terrorism, that threatens our country’s integrity, and, therefore, threatens our sovereignty. The Caucasus is [problem] number one. Unfortunately, the situation isn’t getting any better there. It is even getting worse. It looks like an underground fire. And we’ve got nothing to boast about there.

    Today we witness definite movement by Finland, Estonia and the EU on the issue of Finno-Ugrian nations. It has suddenly been discovered that we [Russia] opress them somehow. They are discriminated against in our country. And regions, where these Finno-Ugrians constitute a majority of the population, do hold a strategic amount of our oil reserves. I am not a fan of conspiracy theories. But this is obviously a premeditated system of operations [against Russia]. Last week there was a resolution in PACE about how “we” oppress the Finno-Ugric nations (the Hants, the Mansi, the Chuvash, the Komi peoples etc). These are yesterday’s schemes, and they’re evident. And I didn’t even start to mention all those “orange revolutions”, about humanitarian institutes’ activities. It’s common knowledge, that Freedom House is headed by Woolsey, who used to be the head of the CIA. It takes an idiot to believe in the humanitarian mission of this “establishment” [Surkov uses the word “kontora”, which means “office” in Russian and used to be a codename of the KGB in Soviet times]. We also should not forget, that specific circles in those countries are also pursuing similar tasks. We have to take this into account in our work.

    For instance, it is difficult for me to understand what the big difference is between the Kuchma regime (now alledgedly perceived as criminal), and the Yushchenko regime. As hard as I tried, I failed to see any difference. Apart from the fact, that some people grabbed the seats of others. Obviously, some financial streams and some assets will soon be changing hands, too. If this is a positive development, then I want to ask, what would have happened if Putin someday said: “Let’s deprivatize a couple of strategic[ally important] enterprizes.” One can imagine, what a storm of protests such a statement would provoke, both nationwide and internationally. And in the Ukraine such steps are taken quite openly. And they call it a democratic achievement. And our “rightist” leader Boris Nemtsov acts as an advisor there. This will probably ensure the stability of democratic institutions. Not to mention what we used to believe what we learned from Western [political] theory pundits — that peaceful transition of power, in the timeframe defined by Law, constitutes the core principle of democracy. And how did the governing power change in Ukraine? All the thinkable and unthinkable procedures were violated. It can hardly strengthen the Ukrainian people’s respect for democracy.

    But this was all about [our] external problems. Regardless of whatever anyone has to say on the issue, current [Russian] rulers do uphold the principle that [private] property is inalienable. I wouldn’t want to discuss the Yukos case here. But this, indeed, had nothing to do with redistribution [of property], as some tend to claim. But this is a totally different story, and it had totally different reasons. Not related to politics. Of course, it’s easy to present these reasons as political ones nowadays. Thank God, I’m doing exactly those very things myself, for which Misha [Khodorkovsky] was allegedly jailed. This is outright nonsense. I can swear to you, that if Khodorkovsky were at large, the outcome of the elections would have been the same. This corporation posed absolutely no political threat. I told him [to Khodorkovsky], that power, as well as love, can’t be bought. Thinking that a bunch of corrupt [Duma] factions can elect you prime minister is naive. He had those bizarre ideas.

    Therefore I would like to stress, that this [Yukos] process, that had wide repercussions, that was difficult and unpleasant for all of us — does not have such a plain political explanation. There were a number of factors involved. Of course, as Sergei Alexandrovich [Abramov, chairman of the Business Russia’s supervisory board] correctly stated, speaking before me, there was this task [for the Kremlin] to send a negative message to business tycoons. They’ve got it all wrong if they think that they can do what they please. From the very start we kept saying, that we won’t tolerate [this approach]. We won’t allow a small bunch of companies to exercise power in this country. This is not democracy. Apart from that small bunch of people, there are also 140 million “poor relatives”, living in this country. And their opinion should be also taken into account. In our business people like to say “I come from the business background myself”. There is a memorable quote by one of the U.S. presidents, who said: “What’s good for GM, is good for America”. I would like to remind, that both the Roosevelt brothers had a somewhat different view of [big] business. I won’t even quote them, in order not to offend anyone present here. But even the trade secretary in JFK’s government used to say: “Sometimes, it’s this way, but sometimes it’s the other way round.” Sometimes, what’s good for General Motors is not good at all.

    That is why our position is open here, too. We consider it an incorrect situation when several big companies are ordering about state personnel. I have worked in big companies, myself. I know how it is done and I know what I am talking about. Evidently, it does not mean that we must ignore the opinions of business. But a normal, civilized form must be worked out. We understand it clearly that the best intellectual resources and staff etc. are concentrated in business. It is our national property. It is the base of the political class that must take the first place in the country. Not direct the country but take first place. At the same time, we adhere to the idea of the property stability. If there are exaggerations in the regions, it means that both law enforcement structures and various people extort something, try to make something, this is a disease in the whole of society. Of course, things such as the Yukos case can create a negative atmosphere. But both the president and other top officials are trying to prevent it. At this stage many things depend on the active position of business, on its active self-defense, because there is no need to look toward the state only.

    CONTINUED……………………………………………………

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Putin made in his press conference speech at the Economic Forum in St Petersburg a reference that the Ukraine should do the "special zone for the mercenaries constitutional changes" in order to get talks going--BUT he kept also referring to his form of "federalization" and claiming that the Ukraine was doing nothing on their side.

    Seems that in fact the Ukraine submitted their proposed "decentralization plans" to the Venice Commission for review ------

    Take note, Russia: Venice comm on Ukraine draft const amdmts: a few chgs, but gen "well drafted & deserve support" http://www.venice.coe.int/webforms/d...-PI(2015)008-e

    Appears that Putin was "lying again".
    THEN this Russian news agency press release from Interfax from today---NOTICE just how they spin the Venice decision.

    LPR: Draft amendments to Ukrainian constitution do not lay foundation for settling conflict in southeast

    MOSCOW. June 25 (Interfax) - The authorities of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) share the opinion of the Venice Commission that the constitutional amendments proposed by Ukraine will not ensure the resolution of the conflict in the southeast, LPR negotiator in the Contact Group Vladislav Deinego has said.

    "The opinion of the [Venice] Commission that the suggested draft amendments do not lay a constitutional foundation for proposals aimed to resolve the conflict is fully shared by us," he told the Luhansk information center.

    Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) negotiator in the Contact Group for Ukraine Denis Pushilin said earlier that of the Council of Europe's Venice Commission that published conclusions on draft amendments to the Ukrainian Constitution regarding decentralization "directly pointed out that the Ukrainian draft of the amendments was missing approaches and articles that could enable Kyiv to fulfill the Minsk agreements and decisions of the 'Normandy Four'".

    The conclusions were drawn from comments by Venice Commission members Hanna Suchocka (Poland) and Carlo Tuori (Finland) and expert, representative of the Council of Europe's Congress of Local and Regional Authorities Alain Delcamp.

    The document said that the conclusions were preliminary.
    WHAT the Russian propagandists failed to mention is what the Ukraine submitted was the necessary changes to allow all of the Ukraine regions to "decentralize" including the mercenary zones and that the "decentralization" was fully correct as it applied to the Ukrainian Constitution.

    Minsk 2 does not explicitly state what the "special zone constitution changes" should look like only that there is to be a special zone change--what was submitted in fact totally supports Minsk 2.

    It is just that Russia and her mercenaries wanted "federalization" not decentralization". "Federalization" in Putin speak means the zones could have a veto right over anything the central government wanted to do and they could conduct and sign agreements with Russia directly--actually it is the Bosnian model that they want.

    The proposed "Bosnian model" would give Russia total control over the Ukraine.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    One has to admit that the Russian disinformation and propaganda campaign is actually quite good--they shifted on a dime for Armenia.

    They were running out of topics for the Ukraine but seemed to have found new topics for Armenia.

    US trained professional protestors at a Czech base to repeat Maidan in Yerevan. Nuland involved."
    pic.twitter.com/1kznvdi7D7

    Russian disinformation agency NTV reports "US may be behind Yerevan protests"
    https://twitter.com/rentvchannel/sta...27313480749056

    Armenia is part of my country, Russia. Their Maidan must be crushed at all costs. Like Tienanmen, for example" pic.twitter.com/HiKJcHp2QO

    2 Russian propaganda moguls of Armenian descent: "Armenia w/o Russia is the death of the nation."
    #ElectricYerevan pic.twitter.com/zIu0XoZyla

    Armenia youth protests were years in the making. Ppl want a govt that listens and is accountable. http://www.pri.org/stories/2015-06-2...e-years-making … #ElectricYerevan
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-25-2015 at 08:09 PM.

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    http://maidantranslations.com/2015/0...freesavchenko/

    Dmitry Tymchuk: Military update 6.24

    Posted on June 25, 2015

    06.24.2015 Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

    Operational data from Information Resistance:

    Russian-terrorist forces in Donbas continue actively shelling the positions of Ukrainian troops and civilian objects, including with the use of heavy weaponry. There is no apparent unified concept behind active operations by the “DNR / LNR” groups [Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples’ Republics, respectively], nor any obvious attempts to carry out tactical-level missions – only the insurgents’ desire to achieve tactical success in several areas. In most cases, shellings are chaotic in nature and designed to maintain destabilization along the demarcation line.

    For example, in the vicinity of Opytne, insurgents are trying to force the advanced units of Ukrainian troops to move behind the Koltseva road [circular highway] by using heavy mortar fire from 82-and 120-mm mortars.

    Between Pisky and Opytne, a maneuvering terrorist armored group consisting of several armored fighting vehicles was spotted once again. Insurgents have opened fire from APC [armored personnel carriers] and IFV [infantry fighting vehicles] weapons on the positions of the ATO forces several times over the past 24 hours.

    In the vicinity of Mar’inka (on the front line), an armored group (two tanks and two AFVs) was also spotted, operating under cover of insurgent mortar units (only AFVs opened fire from 30-mm automatic guns). At the same time, enemy snipers opened fire on the positions of the ATO forces.

    Activity by Russian-terrorist groups has been observed in the vicinity of the Svitlodarsk bridgehead. The enemy used ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns, large-caliber machine guns and AGS-17 grenade launchers (shelling the ATO forces positions near Svitlodarsk). Insurgents use 120-mm mortars in this area, as well as in the area between Luhanske and Rozsadky. Maneuvers by an enemy armored group (three or four ACVs, which did not fire [at the time]) were also observed in the vicinity of Luhanske.

    On the stretch between Zolote and Novotoshkivka, insurgents actively use 152-mm artillery. Under cover of artillery fire in this area, terrorists attempt to send their sabotage and reconnaissance groups into the tactical rear of the ATO forces (checkpoint #29 – Novotoskivka). An enemy MLRS unit also continues to operate in this area.

    In the direction towards Shchastya – Stanytsia Luhanska, terrorists actively shell the positions of Ukrainian troops in order to identify the firing system of checkpoints and bases of the ATO forces. Attacks are carried out from small arms and 82-mm mortar rounds, sometimes from 120-mm mortars.

    In the coastal areas, insurgents use small arms, AGS-17 grenade launchers, and 82-mm mortars in attempts to provoke advanced positions of the ATO forces to retaliate with heavy weaponry. [Insurgents] are also firing from the “neutral zone.” Similar provocative fire strikes on the positions of Ukrainian troops have been observed immediately before the arrival of the OSCE inspectors to the front edge of the [frontline], which suggests that terrorists possess information about the movement of SMM OSCE patrols.

    In the Kuibyshev district of Donetsk, an insurgent tank unit (four tanks) and a battery of 122-mm D-30 howitzers was observed moving along the “front line” towards a positions to the north of the settlement.

    An insurgent artillery division was observed moving towards Chervone (four 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers). Three more 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers were seen on the march near the settlement of Komunarivka.

    An operational and tactical command post was transferred from Yenakijeve towards Kayutyne – the convoy included a command and staff vehicle of Russian troops R-149BMR “Kushetka-B,” two KAMAZ military vehicle trailer systems, and an “Ural” [military cargo truck] accompanied by a BTR-80 armored personnel carrier.

    An insurgent armored group was observed transferring from Antratsyt and Krasnyi Luch (six tanks and several IFVs, including a “Potok-2″ command and staff vehicle).

    In the vicinity of Horlivka, terrorist artillery was observed transferring towards the village of Holmivskyi (in groups of two-three weapons). Up to ten 122-mm D-30 howitzers and up to eight 152-mm “MSTA-B” units have been transferred over the past 24 hours.

    Source: Dmitry Tymchuk FB

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    https://moscowonthames.wordpress.com...-with-rockets/

    Rwanda with Rockets

    Posted on June 25, 2015

    Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs is not usually known for biting its tongue. Nor is the Kremlin, for that matter. And so it’s striking that two pieces of news this week – the Netherlands’ proposal for a tribunal on the downing of MH17 in eastern Ukraine, and the UK’s arrest of the Rwandan intelligence chief on war crimes charges – have elicited no reaction from Moscow.

    Remember Moscow’s reaction to the investigation into corruption at FIFA and subsequent arrests? Clearly an American plot against Russian interests, said sporting officials. Yet another instance of Washington overstepping its legal bounds and imposing its will on others, chimed in the commentators.

    And yet they’ve said nothing about the arrest of Emmanuel Karenzi Karake, on a Spanish warrant on genocide charges. When it has been reported, the reporting has been neutral, even in Kremlin-linked media – and there has been no comment, official or otherwise, from Russian sources. Meanwhile, the only official response to the Dutch proposal for a tribunal on the downing of the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 – which most observers believe was brought down by a missile provided by Russia to the separatists fighting in the Donbas – has been to say “no comment“.

    Odd, given that both cases have much more at stake for Russia than the FIFA scandal. The MH17 tribunal, after all, would try to ascertain culpability, including establishing who provided the missile and who pulled the trigger; it would also, in all likelihood, look into allegations of coverups and obstruction.

    What about the Rwandan case? Russia has never taken much of an interest in that civil war or its aftermath, but the precedent is a startling one: Karenzi Karake is a high-ranking public official. If he can be arrested while in London, what’s to stop someone from arresting, say, FSB Chief Alexander Bortnikov on similar charges?

    Were charges eventually to be brought against Bortnikov or his comrades for their role in the Ukrainian conflict, the only thing that would separate him from Karenzi Karake is the political difference between Rwanda and Russia. On the one hand, you’d think that’s a pretty major difference: Rwanda is a small, poor African state with no real international power, while Russia is a large, industrialized nuclear power with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

    But the British didn’t arrest Karenzi Karake because they could: they did it because they were made by their public to feel that they should. The Rwandan genocide is an enduring issue of public concern in the UK, as in much of the West, and the Rwandan government is seen as both culpable and illegitimate – both because it hides its culpability, and because its democratic bona fides are weak. Right now, public opinion in the West is rapidly beginning to feel the same way about Russia and its rulers. If a tribunal convincingly establishes Moscow’s role in the MH17 downing – and, by association, the Ukrainian war more broadly – the gap between Bortnikov and Karenzi Karake, indeed between Russia and Rwanda, will narrow still further.

    It’s a sobering thought.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    https://moscowonthames.wordpress.com...-with-rockets/

    Rwanda with Rockets

    Posted on June 25, 2015
    Evidence suggests that Putin’s support may be smaller, less intense, and more volatile than it appears, however. http://imrussia.org/en/analysis/poli...h-of-putins-89

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    Literally months ago a Finnish analyst--I posted his study in the older Ukraine thread--- indicated that the Russians were intensively interested in the Swedish island of Gotland as it would give them complete control of the Baltic Sea.

    REPORT: #Russia rehearsed attack on Swedish island #Gotland in huge #military exercise http://www.thelocal.se/20150625/russ...sion-of-sweden … pic.twitter.com/vUp43KmDso

    'Russia rehearsed invasion of Sweden'

    Published: 25 Jun 2015 15:12 GMT+02:00

    Claims that thousands of Russian soldiers took part in a huge military exercise which simulated a takeover of the Swedish island of Gotland earlier this year have caused jitters in Sweden.

    Some 33,000 Russian soldiers rehearsed a military takeover of the Baltic Sea area on March 21st to 25th, including practising the seizure of Gotland off Sweden's east coast, Danish island Bornholm, Finland's Swedish-speaking Åland islands and northern Norway, security expert Edward Lucas writes in a new report for US-based Center for European Policy Analysis (Cepa).

    "If carried out successfully, control of those territories would make it all but impossible for Nato allies to reinforce the Baltic states," his report, titled 'The Coming Storm', claims.

    The Swedish Armed Forces did not want to comment when approached by Sweden's largest news agency, TT, but the report caused concern in Sweden on Thursday, where a poll earlier this year showed nearly one in three think the country should join Nato -- a shift in public opinion largely credited to a rising fear of a potentially aggressive Russia.

    “Edward Lucas wants to show that Northern Europe and Poland have the economic resources to defend themselves but are far too disunited, but also that the Baltic Sea area is very important and that what happens here matters to the rest of Europe,” Johan Eellend, security political analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut, FOI) told TT.

    “A takeover of these islands would mean that Nato would not be able to send ships into the Baltic Sea and would make Nato irrelevant there. It's such a strategic spot,” Peter Mattsson, researcher at the Swedish Defency University (Försvarshögskolan), added.

    Sweden's security service Säpo recently stated that the biggest intelligence threat against the Nordic nation in 2014 came from its eastern neighbour. Last month, the country launched an unexpected military exercise to parallel a similar war games simulation, involving a number of Nato states, held in Sweden.

    And Lucas' report – in which he urges Sweden to intensify cooperation with Nato – comes just a week after Russia's ambassador to Sweden, Viktor Tatarintsev, warned that Sweden would be likely to face military action if it were to join the defence alliance.

    Swedish-Russian relations have been under strain in the past year, following increased military presence in the Baltic Sea. In September 2014 two SU-24 fighter-bombers allegedly entered Swedish airspace in what the former Foreign Minister Carl Bildt called "the most serious aerial incursion by the Russians" in almost a decade.

    The following month a foreign submarine was spotted in Swedish waters, although the Swedish military was unable to determine where it came from.

    “I think that there is a new security situation in the Baltic area and in the Baltic Sea,” Sweden’s Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist told The Local on the day the sighting was confirmed.

    He has also announced that the country's navy is upgrading its fleet of ships in order to improve its ability to locate rogue submarines in Swedish waters. Sweden also plans to move 230 soldiers to Gotland from 2018, strengthening the island's strategic defence.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-25-2015 at 07:48 PM.

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    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0P52FC20150625

    Russia 'playing with fire' with nuclear saber-rattling: Pentagon

    WASHINGTON | By David Alexander

    Russia is "playing with fire" with its nuclear saber-rattling and the United States is determined to prevent it from gaining a significant military advantage through violations of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, the deputy U.S. defense chief said on Thursday.

    Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work, speaking to lawmakers in the House of Representatives, also said modernizing and maintaining U.S. nuclear forces in the coming years would consume up to 7 percent of the defense budget, up from the current 3 to 4 percent, and could squeeze other programs unless additional funding was approved.

    Speaking to the House Armed Services Committee, Work said Moscow's effort to use its nuclear forces to intimidate its neighbors had failed, actually bringing NATO allies closer. He also criticized what he called Russia's "escalate to de-escalate" strategy.

    "Anyone who thinks they can control escalation through the use of nuclear weapons is literally playing with fire," Work said. "Escalation is escalation, and nuclear use would be the ultimate escalation."

    The deputy defense chief said Russia continued to violate the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty, which bans ballistic and cruise missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers (315 to 3,450 miles).

    Work said the Pentagon was developing options for President Barack Obama to consider to respond to the treaty violations and would not let Russia "gain significant military advantage through INF violations."

    The United States is about to embark on a costly long-term effort to modernize its aging nuclear force, including weapons, submarines, bombers and ballistic missiles. Estimates of the cost have ranged from $355 billion over a decade to about $1 trillion over 30 years.

    The modernization comes as the Pentagon struggles with tight budgets and the need for other expensive weapons like the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and new warships.

    Work said the nuclear force modernization was expected to cost an average $18 billion per year from 2021 to 2035 in constant 2016 dollars.

    The Pentagon's annual base budget has been about $500 billion for several years.

    "Without additional funding dedicated to strategic forces modernization, sustaining this level of spending will require very, very hard choices and will impact the other parts of the defense portfolio," Work said.

    Arms control groups say the U.S. nuclear force is larger than needed to accomplish the president's strategic aims, and the Pentagon could save money by prudently trimming the size of the nuclear triad and other steps.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Literally months ago a Finnish analyst--I posted his study in the older Ukraine thread--- indicated that the Russians were intensively interested in the Swedish island of Gotland as it would give them complete control of the Baltic Sea.

    REPORT: #Russia rehearsed attack on Swedish island #Gotland in huge #military exercise http://www.thelocal.se/20150625/russ...sion-of-sweden … pic.twitter.com/vUp43KmDso

    'Russia rehearsed invasion of Sweden'

    Published: 25 Jun 2015 15:12 GMT+02:00

    Russia rehearsed 'takeover' of Denmark http://www.thelocal.dk/20150625/russ...ver-of-denmark … via @TheLocalDenmark


    Russia rehearsed 'takeover' of Denmark

    Published: 25 Jun 2015 19:44 GMT+02:00

    Some 33,000 Russian soldiers rehearsed a military takeover of the Baltic Sea area on March 21st to 25th, including practising the seizure of Gotland off Sweden's east coast, Danish island Bornholm, Finland's Swedish-speaking Åland islands and northern Norway, security expert Edward Lucas writes in a new report for US-based Center for European Policy Analysis (Cepa).

    "If carried out successfully, control of those territories would make it all but impossible for Nato allies to reinforce the Baltic states," his report, titled 'The Coming Storm', claims.

    Lucas’s report also details Russia’s simulated attack on Bornholm in June 2014, which took place when the island was packed with attendees of the annual political festival Folkemødet.

    Russia mounted a dummy attack, using planes armed with live missiles, on the Danish island of Bornholm just as 90,000 guests—in effect the country’s entire political elite—were visiting the island for the Folkemødet public policy festival. Had the attack actually taken place, Denmark would have been decapitated,” Lucas writes.

    The revelation of a second military exercise aimed at Bornholm will do little to improve Denmark’s tense relationship with Russia. At the same time the Russians were carrying out their military rehearsal, Russia’s ambassador to Denmark, Mikhail Vanin, wrote in an opinion piece published by Jyllands-Posten that Denmark has made itself a target of a potential nuclear attack by joining Nato’s missile defence system.

    “I don’t think the Danes fully understand the consequences of what will happen if Denmark joins the American-controlled missile defence. If it happens, Danish war ships will become targets for Russian atomic missiles,” Vanin wrote.

    There have also been several incidents of Russian airspace activity over and near Denmark.

    In addition to the two Bornholm incidents, a Russian military jet nearly collided with a SAS passenger plane out of Copenhagen in December, while in March of last year a Swedish SAS pilot said his plane was “just seconds” from crashing into a Russian jet
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-25-2015 at 09:32 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    2 Russian propaganda moguls of Armenian descent: "Armenia w/o Russia is the death of the nation."
    #ElectricYerevan pic.twitter.com/zIu0XoZyla

    Armenia youth protests were years in the making. Ppl want a govt that listens and is accountable. http://www.pri.org/stories/2015-06-2...e-years-making … #ElectricYerevan
    ElectricYerevan after midnight #Armenia #Yerevan pic.twitter.com/LaKC4pKBVE

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    ElectricYerevan after midnight #Armenia #Yerevan pic.twitter.com/LaKC4pKBVE
    Good morning from Baghramyan Ave. #ElectricArmenia participants begin daily clean-up as protest enters its 7th day. pic.twitter.com/jw66o5G6tU

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    Just another day in the "routine of the eastern front".

    Mariinka hit by GRAD MLRS rockets just 10 minutes ago: https://twitter.com/xuilolala/status/614371068548149248

    12:44 #Donetskv @Serzzze [fb] #Trudovski can hear sporadic distant volleys since morning

    12:43 #Maryinka @faina_ukr Incoming Grad
    12:47 Didn't hear outgoing, flew over the house, "landed by sound on bypass road"

    12:59 #Alchevsk @ZonaDonbassa "They didn't carry mortars around Alchevsk for a long, now they've driven"

    ATO: Militants fire artillery on Hranitne, rocket-propelled grenades on Shyrokyne
    http://www.unian.info/war/1094111-at...shyrokyne.html … pic.twitter.com/B0U454ZNMB

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Ukrainian police seized 4 anti-tank grenade launchers, 20 RGD-5 grenades, ammo in Avdiivka. pic.twitter.com/HA3fukXFwP

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Ukrainian counter-intelligence seized elements for UAV production that were about to be removed to “LPR”

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    SBU detained 2 militant informers who confessed they were recruited by GRU operative.

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    One Ukrainian servicemen KIA, 3 wounded in the last 24 hours.

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Ukrainian border guards spotted 7 flights of enemy UAVs

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Luhansk sector: Epicentre of fighting: Shchastya, Popasna, StanytsiaLuhanska. 2 civilians injured after militant mortar attack.

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Donetsk sector: 24/7 combat actions ongoing around the airport and Maryinka. No cases of heavy arms use recorded.

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Mariupol sector: fighting continued in Shyrokyne. Militants use reactive Grad-P rocket systems; enemy snipers active.

    New type of 'sea shells' on Azov sea shores this summer.
    pic.twitter.com/5XdiNq93xk

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    Appears the so called "ethnic Russian Ukrainians" are growing tired of their "Russian liberators and protectors".

    So maybe the so called "Nazi junta" is appearing to be a far better choice for them?????

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Information about threats to anti-war activists in Donetsk confirmed: militants intimidate civilians who took to the streets a week ago.

    NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
    Social unrest intensifies in militant-controlled areas: rally took place in Dokuchayevsk against war & crimes of pro-RU fighters.

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