Pakistani politics (catch all)

[davidbfpo]

Found via Zenpundit (hat tip) a comment by an ex-CIA Station Chief in Kabul, so of interest: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/graham..._b_201355.html

JMM,

I will only accept Zadari's policy statements on education in madrassahs when something is done, apart from rhetoric. This is more "playing to the gallery" and irrelevant.

davidbfpo

[jmm99]

that actions speak much, much louder than words - and that Zadari's rhetoric may well show a politician in a weak position.

As to Graham E. Fuller, bio is here. He was the political officer at Kabul (dip cover, I presume) from 1975 to 1978.

In 2002, he wrote an article for Foreign Affairs, "The Future of Political Islam" (also his later book) (# in [] by JMM):

Summary -- The mantra that the war on terrorism is not a war on Islam ignores one crucial fact: [1] Islam and politics are inextricably linked throughout the Muslim world. [2] Islamism includes Osama bin Laden and the Taliban but also moderates and liberals. [3] In fact, it can be whatever Muslims want it to be. [4] Rather than push secularism, the West should help empower the silent Muslim majority that rejects radicalism and violence. [5]The result could be political systems both truly Islamist and truly democratic.

Strictly, my opinions.

1. Correct - starts and ends with the Koran and interpretive texts.

2. True, but there are many more conservatives (not necessarily bad).

3. True - but within the limits set by #1.

4. If the "majority" is "silent", how can one infer that it "rejects radicalism and violence" ? Secularism seems a dead letter in many Islamic countries, but that could change, I suppose.[*]

5. Probable as to "truly Islamist" (or close to it); doubtful as to "truly democratic", especially in Arab countries.

As to Pstan-Astan (at your link), I can find some points where agree, some disagree - and most that I'd really have to think about. E.g., this sounds good, but is it not as Utopian as the dreams of some US nation builders, etc. ?

What can be done must be consonant with the political culture. Let non-military and neutral international organizations, free of geopolitical taint, take over the binding of Afghan wounds and the building of state structures.

-------------------------
[*] Western academia has a fixation on Muslim moderates and liberals. They exist and also write good rhetoric. I'd deal with the conservatives.

[Wana88]

Interesting article, if one overlooks the "socialist" site, on the current situation in Pakistan vis-a-vis the Pushtuns:
Apologies for not being able to link this, but here is the site/article

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2009/ma...paki-m25.shtml

Two million rendered refugees by fighting in Pakistan
By Vilani Peiris
25 May 2009

"There is virtually no independent reporting from the conflict zone, but from all reports fighting has been fierce, with Pakistani military forces using F-16 fighters, helicopter gunships, and heavy artillery to bomb, blast, and strafe suspected insurgent positions with little, if any, concern for civilian life."

Wonder why the double standard when it comes to human life: When there is an airstrike by USAF in Herat (which caused civilian casualties, many being used as human shields by "Taliban") there is an uproar and demands for US apologies etc. Yet, when the Pak --Punjabi/Mohajir--led military engages in relentless, and indiscriminate, bombing with artillery etc. in Swat, Buner etc, causing more casualties that the MSM is reporting (in their defense, their access is restricted) they are cheered on.

Al Qaeda has got its wish ...Pushtuns have been suckered and now pay the price for their misplaced "hospitality."

[Wana88]

The perspective of the Wali of Swat on the situation in Swat etc.:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090529/...e_wali_of_swat

QUOTE:

"Aurangzeb has harsh words for Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's former military ruler under whose watch Swat's situation began deteriorating. He claims Musharraf let the Taliban run roughshod in Swat because it would help win more U.S. aid.
[B]The military has no choice but to fight the Taliban now, he says, but the problem should have been taken care of years ago, before it metastasized[/B]

[George L. Singleton]

David:

The individual Pakistanis and family unit(s) grassroots level up as suggested in detail by the journalist who survived the Lahore blast in the FRONTIER POST office...which was basically leveled...is the fight and win your own war model most likely to succeed now.

Support for the Pak Army is growing even among the Pakhtuns. While Zadarai is on again off again, somehow his military have managed thus far to remain on the attack from all sources I have within Pakistan as a lay writer and reader on this good site.

GLOBAL HUJRA ONLINE is "off the air" with automatic notice that it's owners have "Exceeded their bandwidth" which is a coincidence (?) from date and timing of the Lahore blast. I thought that site was out of Canada, run since 1987 by an ethnic Pakhtun college professor, but that may or may not be the case in 2009?

Friday, weekend time may generate more dialogue on your posting(s). Events change and expand so much daily inside Pakistan.

Have a Pakistani national friend who is now in process of becoming a US citizen...his younger generation family are in business here where I/we live. He is having an impossible time trying to sell his Karachi home to end his affairs there, stuck in Karachi with no buyers as of last e-mail I had from him.

Have a good weekend...the SEC College Baseball Tournament ended last Sunday, my pick made but lost the final game, Vanderbilt University baseball team. But, Regional baseball games begin today, Friday, 29 May, when Vanderbilt plays Middle Tennessee State University at the University of Louisville, KY...and Alabama plays Oklahoma State at Clemson in South Carolina.

[davidbfpo]

BBC News reports on public opinion changes: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programme...nt/8085680.stm and the Daily Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...e-Taliban.html

A reporter returning to Pakistan: http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawam...-pakistan.html

Alongside reports of barbers being busy back at work in the Swat Valley: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8083320.stm.

Tribal fighters attack Taliban in FATA: http://watandost.blogspot.com/2009/0...-pakistan.html and the converse in Bajaur: http://watandost.blogspot.com/2009/0...ur-agency.html

Maybe spin and wishful thinking, but just like other countries Pakistan can "flip flop".

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

David et al:

I believe the tide has started to turn our way inside Pakistan. What could hurt is if the Pakistani Government again flip flops and does not keep troops permanently in all areas where the Taliban are and have been driven out.

This has been the biggest problem all along, fight, then withdraw, then Taliban come back all over again.

George

BBC News reports on public opinion changes: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programme...nt/8085680.stm and the Daily Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...e-Taliban.html

A reporter returning to Pakistan: http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawam...-pakistan.html

Alongside reports of barbers being busy back at work in the Swat Valley: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8083320.stm.

Tribal fighters attack Taliban in FATA: http://watandost.blogspot.com/2009/0...-pakistan.html and the converse in Bajaur: http://watandost.blogspot.com/2009/0...ur-agency.html

Maybe spin and wishful thinking, but just like other countries Pakistan can "flip flop".

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

A video clip, which has interesting moments: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8117220.stm

Apologies to those who cannot view (usually Rex).

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

Earlier this week in June, 2009 Pakistani President Zardari announced that a large Pakistani military force will permanently remain inside Swat to back up the local police and stop the damnable returns of the Taliban which happen when the Pak military fights and then withdraws.

Long overdue but better late than never.

[davidbfpo]

If this story is true: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...a-detente.html

then it is immaculate timing and worrying.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Pakistani Air Force personnel arrested for links to terrorists and some sentenced to death: http://www.thenews.com.pk/updates.asp?id=81332

Not seen this type of story before, although long suspected in open sources that loyalties are under strain.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

The BBC is really busy, try this: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8116691.stm (includes Ahmed Rashid and an Indian diplomat). One theme is loyalty around nukes.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Is just like us: http://watandost.blogspot.com/2009/0...j-douglas.html (ex-DoD Dep. Asst. Sec.).

Somewhat different viewpoint and the human level, not the US$ billions that have been provided.

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

David, your last post deals with survivor benefits, and is an area I am both familiar with and have advocated in behalf of all Pakistani military families since shortly after 9/11.

George Singleton
US Department of Veterans Affairs Civil Service Retiree
(Diplomat, American College of Healthcare Executives)
and USAF, both active and reserve years, retiree...
these seemingly to us Yanks pedantic credentials are
meant for our friendly overseas Pakistani military
readership/other SW Asian friendly military readership
and all Taliban who will change sides readership, too.

[davidbfpo]

BBC reports on an attack on Pakistani Army in Azad Kashmir: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8120184.stm

Given the declaration of war upon Pakistan by LeT this makes sense, assuming it is not a loner or another group. Another thought, is LeT discipline has broken down; yes, all armchair speculation.

In Pakistan itself IIRC the pattern of bombing was the military first and then ISI buildings. Yes, excludes the mainly civilian targets hit.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

An interesting article as there is a strong Indian viewpoint - in a Pakistani paper: http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...-6-2009_pg7_13

davidbfpo

[George L. Singleton]

An interesting article as there is a strong Indian viewpoint - in a Pakistani paper: http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...-6-2009_pg7_13

davidbfpo

Looks to me like a bunch of smoke screen actions in Kashmir to try to divert attention and also to try to build the psychology to keep "all" Pak eastern front troops in place vs. moving more of them to the Afghan border.

Movement of more and more troops to the Afghan/FATA/Swat/Waziristan areas is not stoppable and has been underway for some weeks now.

My "studied" opinion, others opinions may differ, but this is mine as a close "watcher" and recipient of within theater direct personal e-mails as combined sources of my opinions and observations.

[davidbfpo]

On the BBC a report that local opposition to the Pakistani Army is widening: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8125725.stm

More (of course) on: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=7681

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Interesting comment: http://counterterrorismblog.org/2009...hifts_to_1.php I noted the references to police action in Punjab.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

The ex-Pakistani Ambassador in the USA and High Commissioner in the UK, Dr Maleeha Lodhi, where she is widely admired, has written this article: http://thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=185627

Interesting that she notes the public change to hostility towards the Pakistani Taliban enabled the new campaign, which is seen as legitimate state action. Not a response to Western pressure. Retaining that public support will be essential. How the Pakistani state and Pakistani Army respond to this 'window of consent' is unclear.

davidbfpo