On 23 October, Donald MacKenzie writes: My article on Libor went to press just before Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and governments in the US and Europe had to intervene to avert the collapse of much of the global banking system. As the article explains, Libor anchors contracts totalling about $300 trillion, the equivalent of $45,000 for every human being on the planet. It is calculated from banks’ reports of the rates of interest at which other banks are prepared to lend them money. This interbank lending has come close to drying up at each of the peaks of the credit crunch, and the failure of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent banking crisis caused it to do so almost entirely. Libor has therefore been attempting to capture conditions in what has become nearly a non-existent market.
Promises of massive infusions of government capital, and government guarantees that those who lend to banks will get their money back, seem now to have stabilised the international banking system somewhat, although no one imagines the crisis is over. One of the government’s priorities is to get banks lending to each other again, and if they succeed that will help repair the foundations of Libor. There are indeed signs that lending to banks is resuming, and Libor rates have gradually been edging downwards. On 13 October, for example, three-month US dollar Libor was 4.75 per cent; a week later it was down to 4.06 per cent.
The widespread state intervention in the banking system will, however, pose new questions, such as how to treat, when calculating Libor, those interbank loans that are guaranteed by governments. The interest rate on such loans will be lower (perhaps much lower) than loans without that guarantee, and that could affect the value of Libor considerably. For many years Libor was part of the unnoticed infrastructure of financial markets. Now, I expect, it will remain in the spotlight for some time to come.
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