A Two State Solution, of sorts...
Gentlemen,
When I was driving in to work today, I heard a stoy on NPR about these events. Apparently Hamas has pretty much taken control of the Gaza Strip, but Fatah is still in charge of the West Bank. They were interviewing a Palestinian on the West Bank, and he said sarcastically, "Well, they've been talking about a two state solution for a few years now. But this isn't what people had in mind." Or words to that effect.
I wonder if people will be allowed to vote with their feet, assuming any Palestinians want to flee Gaza. If Hamas maintains sovereignty in Gaza, it seems inevitable there will soon precipitate fighting between them and Israel. I'd expect some people would want to get the hell out of there. I know I would.
No signature required, my handshake is good enough.
Israel would be unwise to allow free flow of people between Gaza and the West Bank, since Gaza is flooded with Jihadists of all different types. The situation in the West Bank is more under control, and Israel will not want to risk contagion. Israel will probably choose a policy of "seperation" between the two entities, creating a Hamastan and a Fatahstan
Abbas Dissolves Palestinian Government
14 June (late breaking) Washington Post - Abbas Dissolves Palestinian Government by Scott Wilson.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas dissolved the Palestinian unity government Thursday and declared a state of emergency as the surging Islamic forces of the rival Hamas movement nearly completed their military conquest of the Gaza Strip.
In a presidential decree, Abbas fired Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas and suggested he would "return to the people" with new national elections in the future. His decision ends the four-month power-sharing arrangement between his Fatah movement and Hamas, the two largest Palestinian political parties. Sami Abu Zouhri, a Hamas spokesman in Gaza, said, "In practical terms these decisions are worthless."...
What the Arafat story points out is the danger that is inherent when an insurgent group crosses that line into terrorism. Terrorist groups spin out of control with their own addiction to violence. They also become prisoners of their own dreams and ideals. It's an interesting, and frightening, psychological transition that effects both the leaders and (especially) the rank and file. Newer recruits tend to be more radicalized, pressuring leaders to either change their tactics or see their support ebb away.
"On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War
Indeed. However, it is not clear that the Palestinians have any true "insurgent" history -- they basically began the current trend of Arab terrorism towards civilians. But Arafat also played a double game -- allowing the formation and growth of Hamas and Islamic Jihad as a way of putting pressure on the Israelis by carrying out terror attacks while preserving plausible deniability on his part and the hope that he would "crack down" on terrorism. Which is like Bill Clinton "cracking down" on adultery
Originally Posted by Steve Blair
The Coming of the Second Masada
From MSNBC: 6/15/07:
-and the headline reads:
"Hamas takeover shows failure of Bush's vision"
Gotta' luv that take on it (as if Bush ever thought there would be a nation called Palestine). Here's hamas in control of Gaza with the sea to their back, Egypt to the South that certainly does not want hamas' influence and ideology coming into Egypt and all around them are Jews and the watchdog IDF/Shin Bet and on the other side through all them Jews is the West Bank, new home of the legitimate Palestinian authority. Sort of a reverse Masada, isn't it? So now that hamas has their Masada, let their supporters revel in the quality of life they are now going to have. A spokesman for the hamas militia was recently quoted as saying that a new era of justice and Islamic rule had just started. Enjoy the fruits of your labor, baby, the real fun is just starting.
HRW, 13 Jun 07: Gaza: Armed Palestinian Groups Commit Grave Crimes
...In internal Palestinian fighting over the last three days, both Fatah and Hamas military forces have summarily executed captives, killed people not involved in hostilities, and engaged in gun battles with one another inside and near Palestinian hospitals. On Saturday, armed Palestinians from Islamic Jihad and the Fatah-affiliated Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade used a vehicle with a “TV” insignia to attack an Israeli military position on the border with Gaza.
“These attacks by both Hamas and Fatah constitute brutal assaults on the most fundamental humanitarian principles,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East director for Human Rights Watch. “The murder of civilians not engaged in hostilities and the willful killing of captives are war crimes, pure and simple.”...
Preparing for the Next Battle of Gaza
Israel doesn't want to allow Hamas to build up the kind of strength Hezbollah did in So Leb
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle1942918.ece
ISRAEL’s new defence minister Ehud Barak is planning an attack on Gaza within weeks to crush the Hamas militants who have seized power there.
According to senior Israeli military sources, the plan calls for 20,000 troops to destroy much of Hamas’s military capability in days.
The raid would be triggered by Hamas rocket attacks against Israel or a resumption of suicide bombings.
Barak, who is expected to become defence minister tomorrow, has already demanded detailed plans to deploy two armoured divisions and an infantry division, accompanied by assault drones and F-16 jets, against Hamas.
I sort of got the feeling that Israel would look at the recent downfall of Fatah on the Strip as a blessing in disguise.
"But suppose everybody on our side felt that way?"
"Then I'd certainly be a damned fool to feel any other way. Wouldn't I?"
How in Gods name is the loss of Gaza to HAMAS a good thing for Israel? I will say this again (now that I am stateside and have a goooooddd coffee) Israel screwed up with Arafat - Isolating him and removing his tools for stabilizing the Palestnians gave the entire kitandkaboodle to the Islamic Extremists ... when faced with moderates who were terrorists to suicidal exremists for whom all future generations are enourgaed to become terrorists, you choose the moderates.
This things is a disaster for Israel, the USA and the ME region as a whole. We have let the extremists set the agenda and do it democratically through legitimate elections!
All we can do now is hope someone in Israel has the guts to make thr tough call ... assist FATAH in the West Bank establish, rapidly and with UN assistance a new independent Palestine including a right to return for Palestinians in Lebanon and overseas, the rich, smart ones - to the west bank. That way, HAMAS will end as an entitiy, people moving back to the WB can isolate Gaza and it becomes a pan-Arab/international problem.
Israel won't invade again.
Will the Israelis take this historic chance to stop a radicalized, Iranian inspired terrorist group from doing same to 9 million Palestinians? Doubtful but its an option to be explored.
Putting Foot to Al Qaeda Ass Since 1993
Many Israelis see Fatah as a trojan horse. They didn't want to deal with it but it was just legitimate enough in the world's eyes that they were pressured to do so. There will be no pressure to politically deal with Hamas.
I would hope that they do, but somehow I think that they won't. Certain attitudes are too deeply ingrained for them to see the opportunity that this gives them.
"On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War
As I've watched the conflict in Gaza over the past week it occurs two me that the schism within the Palestinians--we can't really say it's between moderates and extremists, but let's say between extremists and hyper extremists--provides a workable solution. What the world needs is not one but two Palestinian states. Let Fatah run the West Bank; let Hamas run Gaza. The Saudis and Iranians, if they are so inclined, can support the Gaza state. The United States and Europe can work with the West Bank state. Then the hyper extremists in Gaza can continue to blame Israel and the world rather than themselves for their poverty and misery, but Israel can seal it off much easier than it could the West Bank, thus helping with its security problematique. If the West Bank state continues to move toward moderation and democracy, it can gradually be integrated into the community of nations.
No time for rockets
One of the benefits to Israel from the fighting is that the two sides have been too busy to fire rockets into the Negev. I suspect that the rockets may have been an attempt to provoke Israel into taking action in Gaza that would have benefited Fatah. With Fatah's defeat, for now the rockets are silent.
I still think that none of the Palestinian factions have anything of value to offer Israel.
The great government of Hamas ordered it's terrorists to remove their masks except when attacking Israel. Abbas has set up an emergency government and outlawed Hamas. Some morons are firing rockets into Israel from Lebanon. Israel is in the middle.
Like Steve suggested. Which side do you think Israel is going to get aggressive with? Is the world really going to do anything to Israel if they put the squeeze on Hamas? Either militarily or diplomatically? Already the Strip is isolated. Hamas won the battle. Now it time to go hungry. People on the street in the Strip are stating things like, "I only have God and a bag of flour", and "We just went back 100 years". So much for radical Islmasist ideas and the general Muslim public.
I'm surprised nobody has started a thread entitled, "Is Hamas and the Gaza Strip another Iraq". Let the moral relativist officer corps begin.
Last edited by Culpeper; 06-17-2007 at 05:25 PM.
"But suppose everybody on our side felt that way?"
"Then I'd certainly be a damned fool to feel any other way. Wouldn't I?"
CEIP, 14 Jun 07: The Decay of the Palestinian Authority and the International Response
One month before the most vicious round of intra-Palestinian fighting in Gaza, Lieutenant General Keith Dayton, the American security coordinator in the Israeli-Palestinian arena, testified before Congress, seeking to justify American intervention on the side of Fatah using the terms that have grown familiar over years of Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy. He explained that the United States sought to back the legal presidential security forces—who were working to meet Palestinian obligations under the Road Map—against the forces of disorder. The statement may have made sense according to some logic followed in the U.S. capital, but it was utterly disconnected from realities in the region.
Fatah—as much if not more than Hamas—bears deep responsibility for the deepening chaos in Palestinian society. And American policy has deepened that chaos in some fundamental and absolutely deliberate ways. There is no peace process for Hamas and Fatah to fight over. The Road Map was already anachronistic when it was announced in 2003 and is not pursued seriously now by any of the concerned parties. Even General Dayton’s description of the legal situation was simply wrong: the Palestinian constitution was amended in 2003 at American insistence to make internal security a cabinet responsibility and not a presidential one. While officials spoke of peace and order, American policy in effect—and sometimes by design—supported the political disintegration of Palestinian society and the slide toward civil war.
USIP, Jun 07
Public Opinion in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: From Geneva to Disengagement to Kadima and Hamas
Israeli analysts and pundits enjoy quoting Henry Kissinger’s assertion that “Israel has no foreign policy, only domestic policy.” Kissinger’s comment, while stressed too strongly, captures well the common understanding among political scientists and international relations specialists that domestic considerations have a significant effect on foreign policy. This monograph focuses on one particular domestic imperative of utmost importance in periods of conflict and its resolution: public opinion.
Intercommunal and international conflicts affect the most basic elements holding societies together: beliefs, value systems, collective memories, and identity perceptions. The disruption of these same elements—due to conflict—can heighten emotions and increase stress, a situation that often takes a costly toll on society. These situations are made worse when leaders make bad policy decisions. In such times, then, leaders must be attuned to public sentiment, as public-opinion
support becomes critical.
How does public opinion act as a domestic imperative on policymaking? This monograph addresses this question, using extensive research on both Israeli and Palestinian public opinion collected during the second intifada, which began in 2000....
[QUOTE=Abu Buckwheat;18651]How in Gods name is the loss of Gaza to HAMAS a good thing for Israel? I will say this again (now that I am stateside and have a goooooddd coffee) Israel screwed up with Arafat - Isolating him and removing his tools for stabilizing the Palestnians gave the entire kitandkaboodle to the Islamic Extremists ... when faced with moderates who were terrorists to suicidal exremists for whom all future generations are enourgaed to become terrorists, you choose the moderates.
This things is a disaster for Israel, the USA and the ME region as a whole. We have let the extremists set the agenda and do it democratically through legitimate elections!
QUOTE]
Thank you. This case goes with the they deserve each other theory i turn to when either side does something remarkably dumb; in case you don't get what AW is speaking of, think of training dogs. If all you do is beat 'em, you just make 'em meaner. We now a meaner breed has dominance in Gaza.
I don't know that Israel has the will to go it again after last year in southern Lebanon. It would be a remarkable step forward if they were to do it jointly with Fatah. The only bright side of this is Gaza is not southern Lebanon and can be relatively isolated.
Tom
Hamas is now trained and funded by Iran. The Iranian-Hezbollah-Hamas-Syria axis is in ascendance. To compare this axis with Israel and say "they deserve each other" is hard to understand. Our democratic allies may make mistakes in wartime -- certainly we do. That doesn't mean that we say "they deserve each other". Certainly Britain and France did not "deserve" the Nazis even though their hard line at Versailles may have helped create them. A sense of proportion and moral perspective is needed.
There is no Axis ... politlcal rethoric claiming similarities to real alliances, understandings and direct links is not a substitute for proper intelligence and political analysis. These groups are disparate entities who have been inspired by some and supported by others... some have cooperative links such as Iran-Hizballah-Syria but to call this an axis is a far stretch. Syria and HAMAS have very different ideas about who directs their future, as does Hizballah. This group of entitites are less in ascendence as a group than our failed, miserablly myopic foreign policy has given them immense short term opportunites (Iran aside). Were there the slightest bit of soft power left we would have a say in the matter, but they know, shy of using a nuclear weapon that we have even used all the capitol of our hard power.
If Israel views FATAH as a Trojan Horse (who would do what? Bring in terrorism to Palestine?) then welcome HAMAS ... REAL terrorists, with demonstrated capability to do terrorism that FATAH could not do (and I don't mean two or three Qassam rockets). Did Israel make a concious preference that they preferred suicide bombers from HAMAS as opposed to the occassional bottle rocket from a FATAH splinter group... who were being hunted by FATAH loyalists? Let me speak from the deckplates on this one ... this is a SNAFU of immense proportions.
Mindboggling... Milo Minderbinder must have a role in this!
Putting Foot to Al Qaeda Ass Since 1993
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