Iran: ally, friend or enemy? (2015 onwards)

[CrowBat]

I wish the Iranians all the best. Indeed, I wish them a quick removal of that fascistoid regime that's terrorising even itself (as absurd and amazing at it might sound, but that's the simple truth about the Khamenei, IRGC and the entire gang of cliques there).

However, and I'm very sorry to say it: I do not see how should their protesting ever work?

The regime is so deeply embedded in the society, and having such a firm grip of the economy and security, nothing else but a civil war might ever work.

Indeed, 'this time' it's the very core basis of the IRGC's regime that's protesting. Contrary to what various of Shah-wannabes abroad are trying toe explain, it's masses of poor Iranians. Not the educated elite, nor anybody else, but the poorest between the poorest. Just like in Syria of 2011.

With other words: in 'best case scenario', this is going to be 'just another Syria of 2011' (even much of 2012).

Perhaps even worse than that: the last six years, the Mullah regime has been taught (by the West), that it can apply any kind of terror, any kind of weapons upon its own population (and that of several neighbouring countries) - and absolutely nothing is going to happen to it.

On the contrary: Airbus and Boeing are going to continue selling it airliners.

[Firn]

With other words: in 'best case scenario', this is going to be 'just another Syria of 2011' (even much of 2012).

Perhaps even worse than that: the last six years, the Mullah regime has been taught (by the West), that it can apply any kind of terror, any kind of weapons upon its own population (and that of several neighbouring countries) - and absolutely nothing is going to happen to it.
.

Harsh words but I fear there is more then just some truth in it. All those wars with their brutalities and often direct Iranian military intervention have certainly set the bar of feasible terror very low.

Economically the times are harsh although some support will come from the higher oil prices .

[davidbfpo]

Someone loves Qassem Soleimani, it's Palestinian children - an Israeli watcher has spotted a video by children in Gaza singing his praises. Whilst reportedly demonstrators in Iran were saying something very different.
Link:http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/...rapprochement/

[CrowBat]

Of course there is 'more than just some truth in it'.

One is that there is an all-out Iranian military intervention in Syria going on since 6 years, with the IRGC-QF controlling and providing for up to 250,000 troops there (including locals)...

...another is that there is no Syria even in form of an 'Assad Regime' actually left worth talking about, because everything there is de-facto IRGC-QF-controlled...

...and yet all of the West can't find a single Pasdaran in all of Syria, and don't anybody dare touching that nuclear treaty.

...while all are crying foul about three (in digits: 3) Hezbollah in Yemen, fantasising about some 'increased tempo of Iranian arms deliveries to the Houthis', and increasing the resulting hysteria for an 'Iranian effort to destabilize the Middle East'.

...while two (out of several thousands) of videos showing a few Iranian protesters calling for something like 'return of the Shah', are happily misinterpreted into who-knows-what sorts of amazing stuff and whatever else.

When not only the politics, but indeed the entire 'reality' goes that absurd... then it's sure as Hell: there few billions of sticky, little, green truths in it.

[davidbfpo]

Hopefully this FT article can be viewed; normally there is a pay wall. A "taster" passage:

As disgruntlement festered over rising living costs and complaints that Mr Rouhani had failed to back his promises of reform grew louder, the budget exposed the large amounts of taxpayers’ cash allocated to religious institutions and other entities affiliated to factions within the Islamic regime.

Link:https://www.ft.com/content/d3f6eebe-...2-2c9be7f3120a

[davidbfpo]

An analysis of the regional competition which focuses on Iran and Israel by a UK-based, American analyst. It opens with:

Just last month, the long-simmering Israeli-Iranian conflict came out of the shadows when Iran sent a drone across the Jordanian border into Israel, and Israel retaliated with air strikes on several targets including the Iranian drone operators at a Syrian base in Palmyra, northeast of Damascus. The two sides appear to be on a collision course as Iran penetrates further into a hollowed-out Syria and Israel tries to frustrate that effort. The current status quo, where Israel limits itself to enforcing its publicly stated red lines in Syria, is likely to continue. However, new events that change the intentions of the parties could lead to miscalculation and uncontrollable escalation.

Link:https://www.thecipherbrief.com/artic...llision-course

[AdamG]

Wonder if Tehran is going to the bargain-basement sale Pyongyang is about to throw in the next 48 hours or so...

Iran will acquire whatever weapons it needs to keep out “invading powers” that seek to surround it the country’s President Hassan Rouhani said at a military showcase in Tehran.

Speaking at a rally for National Army Day, Rouhani appeared to take a swipe at the recent strikes against its ally Syria by the United States, United Kingdom and France, all of which are convinced the Syrian regime has once again used chemical weapons against its own people. Iran and Russia remain the Syrian government’s main allies, and often argue that they are the only foreign military powers whose involvement in Syria is legitimate.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-buy-...083245814.html

[AdamG]

The latest pitch for Persian hegemony.

ANKARA (Reuters) - Iran's supreme leader called on Muslim nations to unite against the United States, saying Tehran would never yield to "bullying," state television reported on Thursday.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/irans-kha...082350769.html