Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

[davidbfpo]

A slightly long article and the sub-title gives a clue why:

The commonly held view that the conflicts in Yemen – and elsewhere in the region – are a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia must be revised.

Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-...li-abdullah-s?

The more you read, the more Byzantine the Yemen seems. President Saleh was:

Despite also being a member of the Houthis’ Zaidi sect, he had little regard for sectarian loyalty; in the pursuit of power he allied with Sunni Salafists against Zaidi Houthis, and later with the Houthis against everyone else.

[davidbfpo]

A short paper (44 pgs) by a British academic who has spent years in the Yemen and published by a US think tank (POMED) on a fascinating aspect of the multiple conflicts in the Yemen.

A "taster" from the summary:

Some Western observers (along with many Yemeni government authorities) contend that a key reason for AQAP’s staying-power is that some tribes are aligned with the terrorist group and provide it with safe havens, fighters, and other support. To be sure, AQAP has a presence in some tribal areas, and some tribal members (along with other Yemenis, and some foreigners) have joined the group. But in doing so, they have acted independently, against the wishes of their tribes. Yemeni tribes as collective entities —as opposed to individual tribesmen—have not allied with AQAP or agreed to give its fighters sanctuary. Tribes reject the group’s radical and violent ideology and tend to see AQAP as a serious challenge to their authority.

Because of tribal pushback, AQAP has only been able to seize territory and make other gains in parts of Yemen where the tribal structure is relatively weak. The failure of the Yemeni ruling elite to seriously confront the AQAP problem, and the civil war instigated by that same ruling elite, have been more significant factors in the group’s spread than any tribal action.

Link:http://pomed.org/wp-content/uploads/...NAL_180201.pdf

[CrowBat]

A slightly long article and the sub-title gives a clue why:Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-...li-abdullah-s?

The more you read, the more Byzantine the Yemen seems. President Saleh was:

Rather tragically, such articles come much too late: nearly three years since everybody with a good insight there was warning about US decision-makers having no clue what are they doing in Yemen.

I really do not understand why do the USA always must do everything wrong in cases like this one?

Worst of all: why this insistence on specific ideas and turning these into dogmas?

At earlier times (say: Vietnam), the 'moment of realisation' - the 15th or 16th time the US hit the wall with the forehead - would've been enough to prompt a major change in the politics. In the cases like Afghanistan, Iraq, and now Syria and Yemen, not even this is happening any more...

[davidbfpo]

A short review of a book published in October '17:

"Tribes and Politics in Yemen” fills this gap; it gives an understanding of how a religious movement focused on spirituality evolved into one of the major opposition armed groups in Yemen with plans for statehood.

Link:https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20...rcIXOE.twitter

[davidbfpo]

Saudi-Yemen relations take a new twist:

As a result of reforms to Saudi labour laws designed to tackle the country’s high levels of unemployment, hundreds of thousands of illegal migrant workers have been deported from the Kingdom since November last year. Saudi Arabia’s economic overhaul is desperately needed, but could be having a dangerous unforeseen effect. Forced back to a country in the grip of a humanitarian crisis and with no economic prospects, it is feared thousands of deported Yemenis could be picking up guns to join the Houthis or al-Qaeda, who see the influx of jobless young men as a prime recruitment opportunity. According to statistics from the Saudi interior ministry, 65 per cent of those deported recently are Yemeni – which means a total of 100,000 have already been sent home, and 130,000 more await a similar fate.

Link:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a8248506.html

[davidbfpo]

I recently attended an advocacy group meeting on the Yemen, which had a variety of speakers and two UK-based SME made a particular impact. The meeting was under 'Chatham House Rules' so the SME remain anonymous.

Both agreed that the Saudi intervention is becoming their Vietnam, a quagmire where 'The poorest Arab country is being destroyed by the richest'. Yemenis share an Afghan characteristic in rejecting foreigners. The cost of the war is US$5-6 billion per month - this was attributed to a paper by Bruce Reidel. Too many armed group now exist, it is in their interests to continue the war and the Saudi coalition is yet to find competent local partners amongst he mix of tribes, military defectors and others. Since the Arab Spring the Saudis have opposed every change by repression, thir strategic interest in the Yemen is not to have a sovereign, stable nation-state.

Popular support for the intervention has disappeared inside Saudi Arabia and is often seen as inflicting 'severe damage at home and abroad'. Inadvertently the action has opened a public debate in the West over Western support for the Saudis.

So far the Saudi Army has been deployed to the border, with mixed results in fighting intrusions by the Houthi and recent urges of senior officers have put the better equipped National Guard under Army command, which led to rumours of dissent.

The ex-President Saleh led faction, with a good part of the Yemeni military, somehow remains fighting with the Houthi. One factor could be that Saleh's moves to defect from the Houthi coalition became known to the Saudis, but they failed to plan for him actually moving against the Houthi. This failure has been noticed by others.

'AQAP are the main beneficiary of the war' and the Mukalla bank raid, with a US$100m gained will fund them for years.

In 2008 the UAE =based and owned operator, DP World, leased Aden port for twenty years, paying a claimed US8 billion (which was never seen by Yemenis); they promptly closed the port and sacked staff. The contract was subject to negotiations to cancel in 2012. Put simply the UAE has an interest in Aden port not working. In a quick search I found two reports that supports this: https://www.hiiraan.com/op4/2017/apr...r_somalia.aspx
https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/co...n-gulf-of-aden

[davidbfpo]

Helen Lackner is the author of this article, which has a longer title and provides a summary of the situation today. I'd missed a Houthi negotiator is in Oman.

Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-africa-west-asia/helen-lackner/on-wretched-third-anniversary-of-international-intervention-in-?

[davidbfpo]

Part 2 has a little politics, mainly on the support from the USA & UK for the coalition and the remainder is on the humanitarian crisis.
Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-africa-west-asia/helen-lackner/wretched-third-anniversary-of-international-intervention-in-yem?