Yemen: all you want (2011-2015)

[CrowBat]

...and now there's clear evidence of UAE troops fighting in Yemen on the side of 'Southern Resistance' (read: a wild mix of few Hadi-loyalists, but foremost Southern separatists, and plenty of AQAP)...

Two stills posted at Forget Syria. Start focusing on Yemen!...

Namely, the Yemeni Army does operate (Russian-made) Kornet ATGMs, but surely no quad-mounts installed on Humvees, and even less so does it operate any LeClerc MBTs...

[CrowBat]

Another video report by VICE, this time from southern Yemen... or, shall I write, 'Southern Yemen' in the future, then what they've found out is that majority of so-called 'Southern Resistance' can't care less about Hadi, and only want an independent Southern Yemen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKUMMdGIMDE

[davidbfpo]

The WSJ is reporting (behind a pay wall):

The fight for control of Yemen’s largest air base raged Tuesday, with Saudi-led coalition fighters saying they were rooting out the last Houthi rebels holed up in the airfield.

Link:http://www.wsj.com/articles/coalitio...els-1438676961

On Twitter a few tweets:

Videos and photos show dozens of Leclercs, BMP-3s, other armored vehicles. Action indicates a UAE sizable armored deployment at very least...from available pictures it looked like a battalion-sized element. 20+ Leclercs and 30+ BMP-3s

There is a Tweet citing 'MFS - The Other News' which has a short RT video of armour that hundreds of Saudi tanks are rolling out of Aden. I am not great on tank recognition, are they Abrams or Lerclerc MBT; an unknown SPG and a few BMPs.

Link:http://www.mfs-theothernews.com/2015...udi-tanks.html

One aspect intrigues me. How did this armour plus get to Aden? By sealift? Unlikely as most reports IIRC state the port is closed or not working. More likely overland? A long distance and are there good enough roads linking Yemen to KSA or Oman?

[CrowBat]

Yup, sealift. For one of examples, see HSV-2 Turns up off Aden (when it comes to ships, Jane's remains 'unbeatable').

...and the SPH is the (South African-made) G-6. I saw another video with M-ATVs too.

One of UAEGF units idenitifed so far is the 42nd Mechanized Battalion (BMP-3s).

[CrowBat]

The UAEGF brigade deployed in Yemen (meanwhile reinforced by a battalion of Egyptian special forces) continued its advance and - 'in cooperation with fighters opposed to Houthis', led by Maj Gen Ahmed Saif al-Yafaee (CO of Hadi's 4th Military District) - has seized six districts of the central province of Ibb, yesterday. Northernmost of these is al-Qafr, only 125km (80 miles) from Sana'a.

Some Yemeni sources indicate deployment of 'Apache helicopters' in this area too.

Houthis have declared state of emergency in Sana'a, even more so as one of SR's commanders, Brig Gen Abdullah as-Subaihi, announced a plan to liberate the capitol, and that this is expected to begin in a matter of days.

With other words: considering the firepower deployed against overstretched Houthis, think we can expect some sort of 'Battle for Sana'a' within about a week from now.

[CrowBat]

A video confirming deployment of Royal Saudi National Guard's AH-64D Longbow-Apaches at Aden IAP:
pic.twitter.com/b8HXqrypBd

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to a "lurker" for this pointer to an introductory article 'The Future of Yemen's Unity', part of a forthcoming conference @ Cambridge University:http://gulfresearchmeeting.net/index...d=MTA5&yr=2015

The first paragraph of the Abstract:

Yemen is at a critical juncture. The National Dialogue Conference (NDC) calledfor constitution drafting, a constitutionalreferendum, and new elections. The timetable has slipped, and, for the moment, no end date has been set.The question of the state's structure is tied inevitably to thesouthern issue – shorthand for the political, economic and social demands emanatingfrom the south, which had been an independent state prior to 1990. There, a looselyaligned mix of organizations and activists known as the Southern Movement (called Hiraak) is calling for separation or, at a minimum, a temporary form of a two-state federalism followedby a referendum on the South's future. Separatist sentiment is running high andappears to have strengthened over the course of the present transition process.

[davidbfpo]

Via Twitter:

Big battalion-strengthUAEconvoy on the move in Hadramout, lots of M-ATVs and Nimr 4x4s

Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?featur...-4&app=desktop

The exact location is not given alas. What is of note is that all the military vehicles are being moved by tractor-trailer units, that look French-made.

Methinks this is a convoy which has entered the Yemen overland, via KSA as Oman remains - according to a SME - neutral in the civil war.

[davidbfpo]

First came the Ottomans:

Between 1539 and 1547, the mighty Ottoman Empire sent nearly 80,000 troops to conquer the territory, of which only 7,000 men survived.

Then the Egyptians:

During the North Yemen Civil War from 1962-1970, Egypt learned the same hard lesson, as its forces were drawn into an eight-year protracted guerrilla war in the same northern mountains that swallowed so many Ottoman soldiers. Many Egyptian historians refer to the conflict as “Egypt’s Vietnam.

Now the Saudis, UAE and few others - read on:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...mire-in-yemen/

Important in my armchair opinion to note how it appears many in the South want to exit a united Yemen.

[davidbfpo]

An upbeat article by a KSA watcher; the full title and sub-title being:

The liberation of south Yemen proves Saudi Arabia's power is growing

The oil-rich kingdom is becoming increasingly confident acting without the USA, and will soon turn its attention to the Syrian civil war

I had not spotted this aspect:

In ​preparation for the land campaign, which began in earnest in July,​ training camps were set up ​in​ Saudi Arabia​ ​for the initial 5,000 Yemeni volunteers. Once the bulk of these forces were deemed combat ready, the Saudis ​launched​ Operation Golden Arrow..

Showing a picture with eight such volunteers doing PT is far from convincing!

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...#disqus_thread

[CrowBat]

One thing came to my mind this evening, and I would like to ask if there is anybody who could offer an answer...

The Pentagon is providing general advice, targeting intelligence, and tanker support (by KC-135s and/or KC-10s based in Djibouti) - plus CSAR (if necessary) - for Saudi-led alliance that's providing CAS for AQAP (and Islah Party/Moslem Brotherhood, and separatist Hirak etc.) when this is battling Houthis (and regular Yemeni Army) in places like Aden, Taiz, Marib etc...

Mind: yes, that's the same AQAP that agencies like HS, FBI etc. have declared for one of most dangerous al-Qaida outlets...

...and this is happening at the same time either USAF or CIA is flying UCAV strikes on AQAP in places like Mukalla and Hadramawt, which are de-facto under the control of extremists and while this is completely ignored by the Saudi-led coalition.

So, can anybody here say how's that functioning, actually?

And - and, please, put that nonsensical legend about 'Iranian-supported Houthis' by side now - in what way is such spending of US taxpayer's money 'in interest of national security' for the USA...?

Is somebody (or, perhaps, 'everybody') there bribed, or else?

[davidbfpo]

Via Twitter by:

@ammar82 Engineer/Deputy Minister/Political analyst focusing on Yemen. Private page. ammar.aulaqi@gmail.com

[davidbfpo]

A reminder from the "left" that Yemeni history is not simple:https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/08/y...n-nationalism/

How about this?

North Yemen became mired in civil war following an Egyptian-backed republican coup d’etat by Abdullah as-Sallal in 1962. Foreshadowing today’s proxy violence, and notable for its apparent lack of religious sectarianism, the North Yemeni Civil War saw Saudi Arabia supporting a Zaydi Shi’a imamate against the pan-Arabist government. Riyadh was willing to overlook the Shi’ism of its monarchical ally in order to challenge secular republicanism on the Arabian Peninsula, which threatened to overtake the Saudi Royal Family as well.

[davidbfpo]

Iona Craig reports from the Yemen:https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2...ng-civilians/?

From visiting some 20 sites of airstrikes and interviews with more than a dozen witnesses, survivors and relatives of those killed in eight of these strikes in southern Yemen, this reporter discovered evidence of a pattern of Saudi-coalition airstrikes that show indiscriminate bombing of civilians and rescuers, adding further weight to claims made by human rights organizations that some Saudi-led strikes may amount to war crimes and raising vital questions over the U.S. and Britain’s role in Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen.

[CrowBat]

An SS-21 SSM fired by Yemen Army units that sided with Houthis, has hit an airfield outside Marib, originally used by oil companies exploiting the local Safir oil-field, yesterday.

The missile hit an ammo storage area set up by Emirati, Bahraini and Saudi-trained Yemeni combatants that are fighting on behalf of ex/exiled president Hadi, and caused a massive conflagration.

According to reports from the UAE, Bahrain, and Hadi's 'government', up to no less but 46 Emirati, 16 Saudi, 6 Bahraini and several Yemeni soldiers were killed, and several Emirati AH-64s destroyed.

[davidbfpo]

Well there's nothing like being optimistic inside The Beltway; a new report from AEI:http://www.aei.org/publication/a-new...eda-in-yemen/?

The key points:

• Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), still likely the most potent al Qaeda terrorist threat to the US homeland, has expanded and strengthened as the Yemeni state has collapsed, and its success buttresses the global al Qaeda network.
• The current US approach to Yemen has failed alongside the Yemeni state because it prioritized a military response to the AQAP threat rather than a more comprehensive strategy.
• A win against al Qaeda in Yemen will last only if it is part of a global strategy against al Qaeda, ISIS, and like-minded groups.
• The US must identify a way forward and lead a coordinated regional response in Yemen, including negotiating a political settlement among Yemeni stakeholders, supporting subnational actors, leading a ground offensive against AQAP, and addressing the immediate humanitarian needs of the population.

Madness comes to mind that the USA can today play such a role, including 'leading a ground offensive against AQAP'. The USA is not a neutral party in the current civil war and external involvement.

[CrowBat]

Well, the USA are activelly supporting an aerial- and now ground-campaign run by its allies, direct result of which is the spread of the AQAP in Yemen.

So, yes: it's 'madness' to expect the US to lead a campaign against the AQAP now.

Foremost, somebody in the DC should ask him/herself: who's going to join that campaign...?

What I find at least as tragic is that the DC learned absolutely nothing - nothing at all - from similar situations in Iraq, Libya, and Syria. Instead, there is now a fourth Arab country where 'US allies' are spreading the AQ...

[CrowBat]

- 24 UAE MRAPs and other 'armoured' vehicles knocked out by Houthis and YA in a single battle in Ma'arib Province:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrzZamWiHdU

- True carnage of Saudi MRAPs etc., apparently somewehre in Jawf Province:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DJExSXyFGc

...and then they complain that nobody told them that MRAPs are 'no APCs' and 'no IFVs', and that one shouldn't use them in such fashion, and that their foreign advisors are to blame for this...

[davidbfpo]

Iona Craig reports from Aden:http://america.aljazeera.com/article...mic-state.html

Worth noting ISIL do not fight in the civil war, they loot and do PR. It appears they may now eclipse AQAP.

[davidbfpo]

A Soufan Group briefing:

The ongoing war in Yemen has been a disaster for almost everyone involved, except the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. As the Saudi-led coalition continues its air campaign and is intensifying its ground efforts against Houthi rebels, the Islamic State has exploited the chaos and established itself as a serious terrorist threat to a country that has long dealt with the more numerous and powerful al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

(ends with) Yemen faces a challenging future; an assertive and expanding Islamic State will make it far worse.

Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...haos-in-yemen/