Green on Blue: causes and responses (merged thread)

[davidbfpo]

I couldn't locate the video of Amb. Crocker, so settled for the transcript and found a few good passages:

...we, Americans, are not overly brilliant at. We’re all about today and tomorrow....So we tend to lose track of how important history is elsewhere in the world and how it shapes the present and informs the future.

Ken W. in particular reminds us of this American habit.

Iran-US cooperation:

During those pre-attack discussions—and you’ll remember the air war began in early October—the Iranian thrust was, you know, what do you need to know to knock their blocks off? You want their order of battle? Here’s the map. You want to know where we think their weak points are? Here, here, and here. You want to know how we think they’re going to react to an air campaign? Do you want to know how we think the Northern Alliance will behave? Ask us. We’ve got the answers; we’ve been working with those guys for years. This was an unprecedented period since the revolution of, again, a U.S.- Iranian dialogue on a particular issue where we very much had common interest and common cause.

Incidentally there is no mention of the Indians, who had an advisory group with the Northern Alliance - the only foreign "boots on the ground". Nor the discussions and agreements with Iran before Gulf War Two, especially over overflight, SAR etc.

Back to Iran & Afghanistan:

The Iranians have always pulled their punches in Afghanistan. They could have been a lot worse than they have been. The only explosively formed projectile—EFP that killed so many Americans in Afghanistan we’ve ever found evidence of—in Iraq, sorry—the only one we’ve ever found evidence of in Afghanistan was an inert one that we believe was left for us to find as a reminder—say, you know, we’re only using one hand, and only three fingers on that hand.

On the ANA/ANSF I too wondered, especially when reading they still today have a 15% absentee or desertion problem.

[Fuchs]

Iran-US cooperation:

That's from the short period when the Iranian government proposed political peace and cooperation to the U.S..
A 'historical' chance that the Neocons threw away because they preferred their model of what the world is like over facts.

[Bill Moore]

Posted by JMA

Bill, with respect. Think Vietnam.

Is it only Americans who think that this will be anything other than a rerun of that debacle?

The (US) money won't filter down into the pay packets of the troops and the US Congress will pull the funding... and the whole of the Karzai regime will move to Dubai to live happily ever after on the billions of US cash already stashed there... and Afghanistan will return to its old ways

.

Ultimately those who doubt our commitment to remain committed may sadly prove to be correct. We have some wise advisors in our Department of State and Department of Defense who like AMB Crocker admit they can't predict the future the 30th and 40th order effects of any decision, they can still provide the President and Congress sound recommendations based on history and convergence of trends that are shaping the future. Yet as I suspect most know those decisions are ultimately made by politicians who are more concerned about short term influence over the electorate than long term strategic influence in the world.

Based on this reality any doctrine we develop that relies on enduring efforts is often doomed from the start because we fail to understand our own context, even if we have (bold statement I know) have a good understanding of the historic context in the foreign countries we're trying to influence.