View Poll Results: What is the near-term future of the DPRK

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  • It will fall into chaos as a result of renewed famine and poverty, resulting in military crackdowns.

    3 15.79%
  • There will be a military coup that displaces the current leadership, hopefully soon.

    4 21.05%
  • It will continue to remain a closed society, technologically dormant and otherwise insignificant.

    12 63.16%
  • The leadership will eventually make a misstep, forcing military action from the United States.

    0 0%
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Thread: North Korea: 2012-2016

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  1. #1
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rex Brynen View Post
    Doing something more sensible than your initial plan is neither a "humiliating climb down," nor is it typically perceived as such by the international community (present company excepted).
    Very true. I had a crawl through the regional English language press just to see what's being said. Nobody seemed to sense a humiliating US retreat, though there's a good deal of comment on what's perceived as an unusually sensitive reaction from Beijing (similar exercises were held not long ago without much fuss). The general consensus is that Beijing's focus is on the domestic audience, which is a good deal more restive than most Westerners realize. Playing the nationalist card and trying to whip up anger at an outside power is of course a long-standing tactic for distracting attention from domestic issues.

    I don't see any point in playing into this strategy by upping the ante and giving them something to rant about, and the move that was taken seems - and seems regionally perceived as - a fairly nonchalant shrugoff - it's about North Korea, not about China, and if it's going to be an issue we'll take it elsewhere, no big deal. Given the desire to maintain a focus on North Korea, there's nothing to be gained by creating issues with China, and it really doesn't warrant a hysterical response.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Very true. I had a crawl through the regional English language press just to see what's being said. Nobody seemed to sense a humiliating US retreat, though there's a good deal of comment on what's perceived as an unusually sensitive reaction from Beijing (similar exercises were held not long ago without much fuss). The general consensus is that Beijing's focus is on the domestic audience, which is a good deal more restive than most Westerners realize. Playing the nationalist card and trying to whip up anger at an outside power is of course a long-standing tactic for distracting attention from domestic issues.

    I don't see any point in playing into this strategy by upping the ante and giving them something to rant about, and the move that was taken seems - and seems regionally perceived as - a fairly nonchalant shrugoff - it's about North Korea, not about China, and if it's going to be an issue we'll take it elsewhere, no big deal. Given the desire to maintain a focus on North Korea, there's nothing to be gained by creating issues with China, and it really doesn't warrant a hysterical response.
    10 out of 10 for refusing to see it was nothing short of a humiliating climb down by the US/ROK.

  3. #3
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    JMA,

    Please define "humilitating climb down." If this minor accomodation constitutes a "humiliation" then it seems to me virtually any accomodation (whether real or perceived) is a "humiliation" which would seem to render the term useless.

    Personally, I tend to put the bar pretty high where humiliation is concerned and I think this country has a lot more self-esteem than an insecure teenager. Calling small slights or accomodations "humiliations" is not a sign of strength - quite the opposite.
    Supporting "time-limited, scope limited military actions" for 20 years.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Entropy View Post
    JMA,

    Please define "humilitating climb down." If this minor accomodation constitutes a "humiliation" then it seems to me virtually any accomodation (whether real or perceived) is a "humiliation" which would seem to render the term useless.

    Personally, I tend to put the bar pretty high where humiliation is concerned and I think this country has a lot more self-esteem than an insecure teenager. Calling small slights or accomodations "humiliations" is not a sign of strength - quite the opposite.
    I suggest it is important to face the truth. I saw this coming as did many people from Mickey Mouse countries, strange that so few from the US did.

    It started here:

    The US will conduct joint naval exercises with South Korea in the Yellow Sea, the Pentagon announced tonight as the two countries revealed measures to increase pressure on North Korea over a torpedo attack which sank a Southern warship.
    Note: It is clearly stated it will take place in the Yellow Sea.

    Then this happened:

    China expressed its opposition to US-South Korean military drills at the Yellow Sea, which is a sea stripe between China and the Korean Peninsula, and expressed "deep concern" over the war games starting on Sunday.

    "We sternly oppose activities that affect China's security by foreign military vessels or aircraft at the Yellow Sea or in China's offshore waters," Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said Wednesday in a statement.

    As a result it ended like this:

    Code-named 'Invincible Spirit', the military drill took place over five days off Ullengdo Island, in the Sea of Japan (East Sea), and was completed on 28 July.
    Note: the exercise was moved to the other side of the peninsula into the Sea of Japan as demanded by China.

    That is a humiliating climb down if there ever was one.

  5. #5
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    That is a humiliating climb down if there ever was one.
    Why?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Why?
    Ah, you just say that because you're one of those humiliatingclimbdownists...
    They mostly come at night. Mostly.


  7. #7
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default or, as Wilf or Gian would say

    humiliatingclimbdownistas...

    "Ah, I kill me..."

    The number of people who do not understand that hyperbole, posturing and backtrack are Diplomacy in the current era never cease to surprise me...

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