Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

This is an example of something I think perhaps is being overlooked, the effect of simple Ukrainian and (maybe especially) Polish cussedness in the face of Russian aggression. Sometimes we seem to think that if Mr. Obama and the Krauts don't go all in all is lost. Perhaps, but perhaps not. History does nothing if not reveal that the Poles and Ukrainians can fight and this simple ability may lead to the killing of lots of Russians which could throw a wrench in Mr. Putin's pudding. If they could just get lots and lots of decent anti-tank missiles...

But my main point is we shouldn't be so quick to discount the fighting ability of the targeted peoples when figuring all this.

carl--you bring up an interesting point---it was the rag tag independent BNs that took the fight to the separatists using a few UA/NG armored units and actually were driving them back with heavy loses for the separatists--then Russian heavy tanks rolled in and heavy artillery as well.

What is interesting is the UA abilities to pull out of encirclements and they still have a bulk of their armored forces available

There appears to be 18 MI8s coming from Croatia and if NATO allows their members to send individual equipment then in the long haul things will in fact head towards a bloody stalemate that costs Russia in terms of blood and treasure which is already impacting the Russian internal opinion polls similar to AFG.

Germany just released 20K body armor sets and large amounts of field medical equipment for their wounded---things are slowly moving their way.

[OUTLAW 09]

carl--you bring up an interesting point---it was the rag tag independent BNs that took the fight to the separatists using a few UA/NG armored units and actually were driving them back with heavy loses for the separatists--then Russian heavy tanks rolled in and heavy artillery as well.

What is interesting is the UA abilities to pull out of encirclements and they still have a bulk of their armored forces available

There appears to be 18 MI8s coming from Croatia and if NATO allows their members to send individual equipment then in the long haul things will in fact head towards a bloody stalemate that costs Russia in terms of blood and treasure which is already impacting the Russian internal opinion polls similar to AFG.

Germany just released 20K body armor sets and large amounts of field medical equipment for their wounded---things are slowly moving their way.

carl---this is where the UA new tactics are headed-regular Army/NG/Territorial Defense units will hold and then they are shifting to UW/guerrilla warfare--yes Russia can control territory but they do not have the troop numbers to avoid a guerrilla war---the Ukrainian SF companies have gone to ground and then this was blogged today.

Guerilla Battalion from Harkiv

This twitter site carries a lot of new Russian equipment IDs being seen in the Ukraine and or headed to the Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor?...71264835346432

[Firn]

Stepping back a bit back, how long will this war go on?

i) Putin has already annexed a part of Ukraine and seems to want another slice of it - at least that is what Ukraine and other powers have to take earnestly into account.

ii) Putin got overall the initiative by breaking the political gameplay in Europe after suffering a crushing blow by the Maidan movement. Against his political and military aggression Ukraine and the West moved rather slowly and confused. However there has been some (economic) pushback and even the mild means are harming Russia.

iii) Overall Putin's aggressive political goals forced him to involve more and more the regular armed forces which are likely not as motivated or well trained as some of the formations employed earlier.

iv) The Russian economy is suffering already considerable damage, far more then EU one. It is difficult to see any big positive development unless this war stops. The balance sheet remains strong but the economy as a whole is heading downwards.

v) The Russian aggression seems to be at least partly motivated by internal politics and enabled Putin to step up the oppression at home considerably, supported by a vicious propaganda campaign against his opponents.

So what would stop his war?

I will post more on the Ukrainian and on the Western side of the conflict, but so far the guy who lost Ukraine for Russia has only chosen escalation and violence to take at least parts from it.

[carl]

carl---this is where the UA new tactics are headed-regular Army/NG/Territorial Defense units will hold and then they are shifting to UW/guerrilla warfare--yes Russia can control territory but they do not have the troop numbers to avoid a guerrilla war---the Ukrainian SF companies have gone to ground and then this was blogged today.

From my civilian standpoint I think of it as the Russians can control areas in which they choose to concentrate troops, cities say, and their heavy columns can go where they want but they cannot control the countryside on both sides of the roads that connect to Russia and over which their supplies must travel. This seems the ideal situation for UW/guerrilla warfare units to really hurt, and I mean really hurt, the logistics units that will be motoring down those roads. Maybe to the extent that the further the Russian units penetrate, the more isolated and in greater danger they will be.

Is that about right?