Afghanistan ROE Change

[Bob's World]

Slap,

While your theory is largely sound IMO, I would caution that getting the narrative right is incredibly important in such operations.

"Target" is a word that is much over used and carries horrible baggage in terms of narrative. No one draws much comfort from learning that the 500 year-old church in the middle of their town is a "protected target." All they hear is "target."

Similarly, if you come to my village and tell me that my people are the "target" of your campaign, you have put yourself in a credibility hole you may never dig your way out of.

The populace is "the source of all strength and power" in any state; and as such they are prize that is being competed for, and they are the strategic COG of any insurgency. He who gains the support of the populace wins in this grand game of tug of war.

[slapout9]

Slap,

While your theory is largely sound IMO, I would caution that getting the narrative right is incredibly important in such operations.

"Target" is a word that is much over used and carries horrible baggage in terms of narrative. No one draws much comfort from learning that the 500 year-old church in the middle of their town is a "protected target." All they hear is "target."

Similarly, if you come to my village and tell me that my people are the "target" of your campaign, you have put yourself in a credibility hole you may never dig your way out of.

The populace is "the source of all strength and power" in any state; and as such they are prize that is being competed for, and they are the strategic COG of any insurgency. He who gains the support of the populace wins in this grand game of tug of war.

If I come to your village I want talk about targeting anything but the food


As for the COG I still believe it is the Insurgent Infrastructure as long as that is there the Insurgency can come back and often does as some of your posts have pointed out. This is also why the Strategy of nation building/modernizing/globalization/pop centric may have a Fatal Flaw in it.

You may be doing nothing more then modernizing the Insurgents Capabilities while he does nothing but remain dormant and reemerge at a better time with better capabilities. I have seen gang ops run out of broken down houses and state of the art convenience stores, the difference one had better capabilities than the other. the similarities the same criminal infrastructure still existed.

Your Populace based vs Population Centric would deal with this (I think) and is a better way to go IMO. Incidentally I have seen something similar used in LE with remarkably results but I didn't have the propaganda machine to promote it. Plus it was really invented by a 50 year old grandmother with about a 10th grade education so none of the egg heads were interested in something like that. After all COIN and Crime Prevention are the PHd Levels, the fact that it is waged and won by kinder gardeners escapes them

[Bob's World]

If I come to your village I want talk about targeting anything but the food


As for the COG I still believe it is the Insurgent Infrastructure as long as that is there the Insurgency can come back and often does as some of your posts have pointed out. This is also why the Strategy of nation building/modernizing/globalization/pop centric may have a Fatal Flaw in it.

You may be doing nothing more then modernizing the Insurgents Capabilities while he does nothing but remain dormant and reemerge at a better time with better capabilities. I have seen gang ops run out of broken down houses and state of the art convenience stores, the difference one had better capabilities than the other. the similarities the same criminal infrastructure still existed.

Your Populace based vs Population Centric would deal with this (I think) and is a better way to go IMO. Incidentally I have seen something similar used in LE with remarkably results but I didn't have the propaganda machine to promote it. Plus it was really invented by a 50 year old grandmother with about a 10th grade education so none of the egg heads were interested in something like that. After all COIN and Crime Prevention are the PHd Levels, the fact that it is waged and won by kinder gardeners escapes them

I have felt and made the case for several years that the COG for AQ, and other like networked organizations is their network. Disrupt the network, disrupt the organization. ID the nodes that are critical to operations by area, and focus on them. Similarly, to pick your HVIs, pick the ones critical to making those nodes function, not just the ones the intel guys say are senior in the chain of command.

To defeat the insurgency however, is another matter. Here the COG is the populace, and their support is essential to the greater victory. Both must be addressed concurrently, but dealing with the insurgent is a supporting effort while addressing the populace the main. That does not mean that one must not at times address the supporting effort first in order to create conditions that allow addressing the populace, but it is still the supporting effort.

[slapout9]

To defeat the insurgency however, is another matter. Here the COG is the populace, and their support is essential to the greater victory. Both must be addressed concurrently, but dealing with the insurgent is a supporting effort while addressing the populace the main. That does not mean that one must not at times address the supporting effort first in order to create conditions that allow addressing the populace, but it is still the supporting effort.

I am tracking now.

[Rank amateur]

New ROE seem to be working.

Meanwhile, a U.S. military official told CNN that its forces are involved in a standoff with insurgents in the south of the country near the Helmand River.

He said U.S. Marines began taking fire from insurgents in the town of Khan Neshin, before they ran into a multi-roomed compound.

Unsure of whether civilians were inside the compound, they had an interpreter talk to the insurgents, the official said. After some time, a number of women and children left the compound.

When asked, the insurgents denied any more civilians were inside, the official said, but the U.S. soldiers held their fire anyway. At about 7:30 a.m. ET, in the midst of the standoff, another group of women and children emerged from the compound, the official said.

As of 8 a.m. ET, the Marines were holding all fire and waiting out the insurgents, the official said.

[J Wolfsberger]

New ROE seem to be working.

In all seriousness, I wonder if there will be a Lysistrata effect?

[JarodParker]

Jeez you guys are quick on the draw.

[tequila]

I think we will have to establish bona fides with a very suspicious Pashtun population first, especially given that the Taliban have held control of these villages for so long. I'd imagine for people inclined to believe the worst of Americans, it's not easy to surrender your women and children --- essentially your own honor --- to them. You could just as easily have a sort of Spartan wife effect --- defend your home and family from the infidel, etc.

[Ken White]

based on one action that appears to be still in process might not be just a tad premature...