Zimbabwe: 2007 till Mugabe resigns

[davidbfpo]

Gentlemen,

This is the Zimbabwe thread, although I will concede the SWJ meandering debating society is on an African trek of late.

Back to Zimbabwe now. Sadly once again the media focus has slipped, although unlike other places in distant Arab lands I am not sure Mugabe and ZANU-PF care much for media reporting, let alone it has an impact on them. South Africa under President Zuma appears to just watch and maybe privately criticise, which we know has little impact.

Zimbabwe is alone.

[davidbfpo]

The International Crisis Group (ICG) have published a report on Zimbabwe, entitled 'Zimbabwe: The Road to Reform or Another Dead End?':http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/region...-dead-end.aspx

The summary ends with:

The GPA still offers a coherent framework for putting in place conditions for credible elections. However, progress remains stymied because ZANU-PF has not demonstrated a credible commitment to democratic reforms, and the MDC-T is not strong enough to force them through. The GPA guarantors and South Africa have now indicated they are prepared to take a much more hands-on approach, although it is unclear how this will manifest itself. It is important that they continually engage Zimbabwe’s political leaders to take their own commitments seriously and set clear benchmarks and timelines for achieving the concrete steps set out in the SADC communiqué. Accelerating the implementation of key reforms, many of which have already been approved, is all the more necessary because a credible election process cannot take place until the appropriate conditions are in place.

Earlier the summary notes:

ZANU-PF and Mugabe have countered that they will not tolerate external interference, even from neighbours.

Sad.

[davidbfpo]

Via a BSAP Association email a pointer to:http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/24/bo...ichikokakutani

Which ends with a note of admiration for the ordinary Zimbabwean who is persecuted:

....Mr. Godwin asks. “Westerners often mistake African endurance, and the lack of self-pity, for fatalism. No, I think the other quality in Chenjerai Mangezo is patience, a dogged tenacity. He hasn’t given up on getting justice. But he will wait for it.”

“People like Chenjerai,” he goes on, “are the real asine mabvi — the men without knees. Not only were his legs covered by plaster casts for months, but he has refused to kneel, refused to prostrate himself before the dictatorship, whatever the consequences.”

Patient too and little prospect IMHO of any real change.

[davidbfpo]

A DVD with this thirty minute documentary arrived this week, circulated by Amnesty International, as part of its campaign to support farm workers in Zimbabwe:

Gertrude Hambiru, chairwoman of the agricultural trade union GAPWUZ. She presented the impressive documentary ‘ House of Justice’, which shows the consequences of the brutal violence which is conducted against Zimbabwean farmers and their employees.

Link to film:http://www.a24media.com/index.php/co...use-of-justice

Not easy watching in places. Since circulation Ms Hambiru has fled Zimbabwe.

[davidbfpo]

A nice headline after a SADC meeting and a report which starts with:

Leaders from across southern Africa, who have long deferred to President Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s 87-year-old strongman, dealt him a setback on Sunday, calling for speedier progress toward free and fair elections conducted “on a level playing field” and injecting the region more forcefully into the process of making that happen.

Ends with:

..regional leaders had strongly backed Mr. Zuma’s push to strengthen the electoral institutions needed to ensure that Zimbabweans will be able to vote without fear of reprisals.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/13/wo..._r=1&ref=world

Diplomatic announcements alas matter little in the villages where the "playing field" is far from "level", where the voters face state-sponsored intimidation and violence. Well an "injection'" by the region will be magic!

[carl]

A DVD with this thirty minute documentary arrived this week, circulated by Amnesty International, as part of its campaign to support farm workers in Zimbabwe:

Link to film:http://www.a24media.com/index.php/co...use-of-justice

Not easy watching in places. Since circulation Ms Hambiru has fled Zimbabwe.

One of the farms mentioned in the documentary was Stockdale which also figured in Lauren St. John's book Rainbow's End.

Few things seem to end well in Africa.

[davidbfpo]

A top army officer in Zimbabwe has accused Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai of being a security threat.

"He takes instructions from foreigners who seek to effect illegal regime change," Brig-Gen Douglas Nyikayaramba told the state-run Herald paper.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13888810

Yet another sign that the planned / prospective general election is fraught with problems.

[davidbfpo]

A link to a short prison experience landed today, but was preceded by this quotation from Nelson Mandela (no source cited):

It is said that no one truly knows a nation until one has been inside its jails. A nation should not be judged by how it treats its highest citizens, but its lowest ones.

The Zimbabwe prison experience:http://www.kubatanablogs.net/kubatana/?p=7292

Secondly I spotted an advert for this new book by Paul Moorcraft 'Mugabe's War Machine Saving on Savaging Zimbabwe?':http://www.pen-and-sword.co.uk/Mugab...achine/p/3196/

[davidbfpo]

A BBC story I missed and provides context for events in Zimbabwe starts with:

In 2000, President Robert Mugabe launched Zimbabwe's controversial fast-track land reforms, seizing the majority of the 4,500 farms held by mostly white commercial farmers. More than a decade on, while some of the new farmers are doing well, others have found that if they cross the ruling party, they face losing their new land.

Ends with:

President Mugabe's land reforms have had a mixed outcome, with at least as many farm workers losing their livelihoods as there are new farmers working their own land. The country is also now a net food importer where it once exported grain to the region.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15919538

[carl]

How low can it go? The country must import food but the economy is a wreck so where will the money come from? This place may go Congo or even Somalia low, though with a functioning army. Just great.

[tequila]

Where will money come from? Diamonds, of course.

TENDAI BITI, Zimbabwe’s finance minister, has described the 60,000-hectare Marange diamond field in the country’s east as “the biggest find of alluvial diamonds in the history of mankind”. Potential revenue is estimated at $1 billion-$1.7 billion a year, about half the crisis-ridden country’s total forecast GDP this year and enough to end its economic woes almost at a stroke. But if the revenue fell exclusively into the hands of President Robert Mugabe’s ZANU-PF it could, critics argue, spell the return of a single-party dictatorship and end the present shaky power-sharing arrangement between Mr Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

King Leopold had nothing on Robert Mugabe.

[Stan]

How low can it go? ...though with a functioning army.

And much like Congo, the functional army is dependent on being paid before it takes matters into its own hands.

Minerals didn't/don't seem to help the Congolese hierarchy for long and the military are but a rouge element outside of the capital. Once a country with so much potential and few imported food stuffs now sell green bell peppers from Belgium at 5 bucks a pop

[davidbfpo]

Robert Mugabe has struck a secret "gentleman's agreement" to hand over power in Zimbabwe to his feared defence minister, Emmerson Mnangagwa, sources close to the two men have revealed.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...Mnangagwa.html

There is something strange IMO if 'The Crocodile' granted an interview in 2011 to the Sunday Telegraph, not a "progressive" paper by ZANU-PF standards.

[Marshal Murat]

I doesn't seem this is an interview per se, but Zimbabwe regime fishing to see what regional and international actors would think of "The Crocodile" as a new president of Zimbabwe. I do wonder if there could be parallels drawn between Mugabe and this succession and the apartheid government's transitions to securocrats.

[davidbfpo]

I am not convinced that ZANU PF is:

fishing to see what regional and international actors would think of "The Crocodile" as a new president of Zimbabwe.

For a host of reasons, principally loyalty to Mugabe as the revolutionary liberator of Zimbabwe, most regional actors do little of substance over what happens and internationally Zimbabwe has been written off. The ZANU PF "barons" are in power and not letting go as they plunder the liberated land.

As for :

I do wonder if there could be parallels drawn between Mugabe and this succession and the apartheid government's transitions to securocrats.

I can recall in the mid-1980's when in Zimbabwe that 'The Crocodile' was already considered a likely successor, partly due to his competence compared to many of the other ministers. Yes he has a security background, IIRC now many years ago at the Ministry of Defence, but since 1980 has not served in uniform. This is more about a succession issue within the hierarchy of ZANU PF and not a national battle for regime survival - as apartheid RSA saw.

[Marshal Murat]

I'll concede the first point, but I think that the Zimbabwean government in this succession policy points to continuing holdout against the MDC. Unsurprising that they don't want to lose power. Yet the continued hardliner stance will not win many friends amongst neighbors and possibly continue the sanctions against the government.

[davidbfpo]

A different point of view by a British columnist, who was born in Rhodesia and making his visit to Zimbabwe since 1968:http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnist...zimbabwe.thtml

Nice to read someone who is an optimist, Zimbabwe could be a great country for all it's people.

[davidbfpo]

President Mugabe has announced that Zimbabwe will hold elections on 31 July.

When the last elections were held - in 2008 - a wave of politically motivated violence spread across the country after the first round of polling. More than 200 people were killed, 10,000 injured and 28,000 forced to flee their homes.

The South African Development Community has recommended that the election date be pushed back to 14 August. Zimbabwe’s constitutional court will now decide the final date for election.

From:http://action.amnesty.org.uk/ea-acti...lections_link3

A BBC overview:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22889406

[davidbfpo]

A short comment by Knox Chitiyo, for Chatham House, which starts with:

Zimbabwe's election on 31 July will mark the formal end of the fragile 2009 Government of National Unity (GNU) which, for all its fractiousness, has proved surprisingly resilient and brought economic stability to Zimbabwe after a decade of national trauma.

He ends, optimistically:

The hope – and it is still a reasonable one – is that the 2013 election will be passably credible and produce a new government which is fit for purpose.

Link:http://www.chathamhouse.org/media/comment/view/193509

There's something about organising elections that seems to have been lost:

On 14-16 July uniformed forces voted nationwide in a special election, seen as a dry-run for 31 July. There were numerous glitches, such as a lack of ballot boxes, names not appearing on the roll, and late starts. With tempers fraying, police units had to be deployed at the Harare polls to maintain order. If the ZEC struggled to process 37,000 voters over three days, what will happen on 31 July when millions will be at the polls?

Yes the police had to deployed to the security forces voting!

[davidbfpo]

I have struggled to find a decent report on what happened last week until an email provided one by Dr Sue Onslow, LSE, an academic who has researched Rhodesia-Zimbabwe history. It is on the attachment.

The vote itself from the BBC:

Presidential:

Robert Mugabe, Zanu-PF - 61%, 2,110,434 votes
Morgan Tsvangirai, MDC - 34%, 1,172,349 votes

Parliamentary:

Zanu-PF - 160 seats (up 61 seats from 2008)
MDC - 49 seats (down 51 seats from 2008)

No great surprise Robert Mugabe found ways to ensure he remained in power, although I've yet to see an published, reliable opinion polling data.