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Old 09-27-2016   #2841
OUTLAW 09
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NewsMap
Syrian rebels captured Sana al-Tan and the attached military base with its 840 meter runway.
Nobody to supply them by air though.


Talbisah last night.
Whole family including 3 children injured in night time air strikes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=orYHANZhZGA#…

Footage
"Russian" air strikes on areas south of #Damascus this morning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7VBrsdqnko#…

Consequence of the #Aleppo massacres?!
#JFS attacks regime positions in #Hama w/ heavy (supplied) arms & ammo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXAAYgjkbuM#…

A Syrian rebel coalition took 4 villages in northern #Hama province from #Assad. A price he seems willing to pay for #Aleppo
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Old 09-27-2016   #2842
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Charles Lister
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Unexploded munition found in #Aleppo looks [possibly] to be a Russian BETAB-500 bunker buster:
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Old 09-27-2016   #2843
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A24 Reporter denies #Assad forces advancing in old Aleppo, local factions block severe attack by Assad forces on Farafra in old #Aleppo
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Old 09-28-2016   #2844
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Default WOTR: It is Time to Drive a Stake Into the Heart of the American Credibility Myth

Dianne Pfundstein Chamberlain: http://warontherocks.com/2016/09/it-...dibility-myth/

One of the most common criticisms of President Obama is that he has damaged American credibility. Obama’s foreign policy decisions have been thoroughly denounced by Republicans, some members of his own party, and even former members of his administration. When the United States opted not to respond with military action to the 2013 chemical weapons attacks in Syria, many people argued that failing to punish the Syrian regime would diminish U.S. credibility. Similar critiques were leveled when Russia annexed the Crimea and the United States responded with economic sanctions instead of force. “How can we expect other states to take us seriously if we fail to act in these cases?” these critics asked. In other words, tomorrow’s threats will fail if the United States does not follow through on today’s commitments...

Perhaps most surprisingly, I found that the United States does not bluff in the realm of compellence. In all crises in which the United States issued an explicit threat intended to modify a target’s ongoing behavior, it followed through if and when the target chose not to comply with U.S. demands. (Some might argue that the United States’ decision to take no action in response to the use of chemical weapons in Syria in 2013 would constitute a failure to follow through on a commitment. Because the initial “red line” threat was an effort to deter the Syrian regime, it would have been outside the scope of my analysis of U.S. compellent threats. We have direct evidence, however, that Putin saw this inaction as prudent and did not conclude that Obama was weak as a result.) In terms of the reputation theory, this strongly suggests that U.S. compellent threats should be extremely effective, and that they should become more effective over time as this reputation becomes more consistent and impressive.

When we look at the record of U.S. compellence, however, we find that the opposite is true: America’s compellent threats have been both more frequent and less effective on average since 1990 than they were during the Cold War. The target conceded to U.S. demands in 55 percent of Cold War crises in which the United States issued a compellent threat and in only 25 percent of crises in the post-Cold War period. In other words, despite the fact that the United States has demonstrated that it always follows through on its compellent threats, these threats have become less effective over time. This is the exact opposite of what we would expect given the logic of those who argue that U.S. inaction in Ukraine emboldened Putin to intervene in Syria and that inaction in Syria will similarly embolden him to invade the Baltics.

Cases of Coercion: Iraq and Libya

Will the willingness to bomb a dictator today persuade the same leader to concede to American demands tomorrow? It turns out that the answer is no. When we look at cases in which the United States has attempted to coerce the same target state over time, we find that the willingness to execute past threats — even those involving the use of considerable military force — does not translate into an increased likelihood that the target will concede to the United States’ demands in subsequent crises. Consider the most obvious and perhaps most consequential of these targets: Iraq. The United States attempted to coerce Iraq with compellent threats before both the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 invasion, and several times during the 1990s. Despite its willingness to launch Operation Desert Storm, the United States still failed to use threats to compel Iraq to admit weapons inspectors in the 1990s (a relatively modest set of demands in the realm of interstate coercion) and failed to convince Saddam Hussein to concede before the 2003 invasion.

We also know from interrogations of Saddam after his capture and from recordings and transcripts seized after the invasion that he resisted Washington’s 2003 threat not because he thought it lacked credibility, but because he had survived U.S. efforts to coerce him in the past and doubted that the United States had the resolve to employ the means necessary to overthrow him. These beliefs turned out to be incorrect, but that does not change the fact that Saddam’s decision to resist the United States in 2003 did not hinge on credibility (as the reputation theory would dictate) but on his beliefs about U.S. resolve to stay the course after the initial launch of military action.

Another prominent example that spans several presidential administrations is Libya. The United States attempted to coerce Qaddafi several times over several decades on issues ranging from the support of terrorism to the pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. The United States famously bombed Libya in 1986 and clashed with Libyan forces off the coast several times in the 1980s. In March 2011, President Obama issued an explicit threat to the dictator demanding that his forces halt their advance on the rebel-held city of Benghazi. Despite its record of launching military action against the Libyan dictator, the United States was unable to successfully coerce Qaddafi before the launch of the NATO no-fly zone. Instead, Qaddafi remained steadfastly defiant over months of intensifying air strikes. He was ultimately hunted down and captured but only by forces on the ground that NATO had been explicitly unwilling to provide. Although NATO may have eventually reached its goal of overthrowing the Libyan dictator — a goal that Obama and his administration were not openly advancing in early 2011 but which came to define the mission — the effort to coerce Qaddafi was a complete failure.

We will probably never know exactly why Qaddafi chose to resist in the face of this U.S.-NATO threat in 2011, but one thing is clear: Carrying out military action against Libya in the past did not enable the United States to threaten Qaddafi successfully in 2011. In other words, even if the United States had bombed Putin’s forces in the Crimea or provided direct military support to Kiev, this would not translate into an ability to deter a future invasion of Estonia.

Dispelling the Myths of Credibility

These are relatively easy tests, and the reputation theory has failed at both. We have looked for and failed to find two obvious patterns in the evidence from actual cases in which the United States tried to use threats to convince a target state to change its behavior. Even when we set the bar low, the reputation theory cannot clear it.

Although there is little evidence to support the theory that following through on threats today is necessary to make threats effective tomorrow, arguments about American “credibility” are likely to continue to surface in the national debate. To some extent, these arguments about reputation are relics of the Cold War debate about how to contain the spread of communism. Senior officials in the foreign policy establishment may retain these frameworks for understanding the world today. More importantly, the reputation theory holds sway in American debates about security policy because it is a useful and versatile weapon on the policy making battlefield. Want to criticize your political opponent’s decision not to endorse a particular policy? Just argue that she is destroying America’s reputation abroad! Want to sell an overseas intervention to a war-weary public? Just argue that the operation is necessary to preserve America’s credibility! The reputation theory is a useful tool for selling a favored policy both within the Beltway and to the broader American public.

As critics fret about Washington’s ability to both work with Moscow on Syria and deter it from advancing into the Baltics, one thing should be clear: The world simply does not operate in the way that proponents of the reputation theory argue it does. This is good news, because it means that the United States is not constrained by the need to intervene in places of questionable strategic interest or else lose its ability to influence outcomes in world politics. On the other hand, we should not expect that the willingness to bomb a rogue state today will guarantee the United States the ability to get its way tomorrow. If only the world were so simple.


Dianne Pfundstein Chamberlain, PhD, is an Associate Research Fellow with the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University. She was formerly an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the International Security Program at the Belfer Center for International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School. She is the author of Cheap Threats: Why the United States Struggles to Coerce Weak States (Georgetown University Press, 2016).
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Old 09-28-2016   #2845
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GENOCIDE continues to be the main intent of Assad and Putin AND notice just how quiet it has gone after the UNSC meeting.....absolutely being ignored by Obama and company...


Charles Lister

@Charles_Lister
Overnight, regime &/or #Russia jets bombed 2 largest hospitals in besieged E #Aleppo (both supported by @sams_usa); both now out of service.
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Old 09-28-2016   #2846
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Crazy!
Few #JaF men w/ 2 tanks, 2 BMPs storm Ash Sha`ta.
30 #Assad forces run away, leave 3 tanks,1 BMP,1 gun behind
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh6d...ture=youtu.be#
Drone video footage again from JaF.......

Footage
Rebels also use D-30 artillery pieces in their offensive in #Hama province.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWOKV8LI12U#…

47 civilians were killed by #AssadPutin on Tuesday in #Syria, incl. 14 children.
32 od the victims died in and around #Aleppo.
- LCC


Syrian rebel TOW attack on the position before it was taken over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1mzwxGWMv8#…

German Journalist Jurgen Todenhofer fabricates Nusra Front's interview
https://en.zamanalwsl.net/news/18589.html#

More footage from #Huraytan.
DOZENS of bombs rained down on the city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9chTCWnviU#…

Footage
Multiple bombs were dropped by #AssadPutin or #Huraytan, north of #Aleppo today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCR2eZ4OvlI#…

Footage
More air strikes hit the northern suburbs of #Aleppo yesterday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff2rjvYQLDg#…

War planes dropped bombs on #JisrAlShughur and #Saraqib tonight.
#Idlib #Syria

NE #Hama: Central Division destroyed with a #TOW an ammo truck on Tulaysiyah front.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5qgmlsKrx8#…

E. #Ghouta: pro-Regime forces inching closer (~3 km) to #Douma after takeover of Signal (Ishara) Base from Jaish Al-Islam.

NE. #Hama: Central Division shelled pro-Regime forces in Tulaysiyah with a 122 mm gun.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35...z=13&m#…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKcXTa1kyEU#…

NE. #Hama: Jaish Al-Izza fired a #TOW vs a T-72 in Sadou checkpoint. Unclear if hit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1mzwxGWMv8#…

Assad loyalists claim regime-forces took Farafira in #Aleppo old town
#FSA & opposition groups denies this advance
No confirming photos or videos

Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-28-2016 at 06:22 AM.
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Old 09-28-2016   #2847
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N. #Daraa: Rebels downed this drone over Dael likely used to coordinate/monitor SyAF airstrikes on the city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQeopWkeYfw#…

NE. #Hama: dozens of pro-Regime forces fleeing even before Rebels reached the fortification leaving tanks/BMP behind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh6dAomjf6s#…

N. #Aleppo: Free Idlib Army fired a massive barrage of Grad rockets on #Handarat (village). 1st time with 2 BM-21s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFq07xxPW5k#…

NE. #Hama: Rebels seized four locations this morning inching closer to Tulaysiyah as several new groups entered #Hama offensive.

NE #Hama: Faylaq Al-Sham destroyed with an #ATGM a second tank.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7qb9mpSZLI#…

Faylaq Al-Sham officially entered #Hama offensive by destroying with an #ATGM a tank & a 23 mm gun.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiqBXx9UJcE#…

Hama offensive seeing the first involvement of newly formed Free Idlib Army. Participation of #FSA Central Division also confirmed.

N. #Aleppo: Al-Safwah Battalions shelled fortified base of Bashkuy with Grad rockets.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36...z=12&m#…
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Old 09-28-2016   #2848
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Golan-based Syrian FSA rebels to Israel radio: We can not stand idly by as Hezbollah deploys artillery to (Druze border village of) Hadr.

Rebel source says they have plead with Druze leaders of the village to remain neutral.
Village leaders claim they are being targeted.

This is a common strategy of pro-Regime forces to shell Rebels w/ artillery inside locations w/ minorities trying 2 feed sectarian spillover

Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-28-2016 at 11:27 AM.
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Old 09-28-2016   #2849
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MORE evidence that BM21 GRAD MRLSs are arriving for the anti Assad opposition forces.....

Another BM-21 emerged in #FSA hands in #Latakia province.
Salvo vs. regime position near #Rabia, filmed from a drone.

Interesting that the cab of the BM21 had large white squares painted on the hood and on the two doors for friendly recognition by CAS.......
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Old 09-28-2016   #2850
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Looking through terrible images from east Aleppo yesterday, this one stopped me in my tracks. Taken in aftermath of airstrike on al-Shaer.

EVER notice that western MSM is simply ignoring the death and destruction of genocide and one wonders why the Holocaust occurred?????
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Old 09-28-2016   #2851
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AND the genocide just keeps on rolling on.....

Syria Airstrikes hit queue of people in front of bakery near #Aleppo city center ~ 20 dead

DELIBERATE and targeted killing of civilians....NOT a SINGLE bomb dropped by either Assad and or Putin on IS in this latest bombing campaign...

Assad shares over 75kms of front lines with IS and yet there is a total peace and quiet all along that front line AND western MSM has not picked up on that at all....
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Old 09-28-2016   #2852
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Iraqi children recruited / kidnapped & trained by #Iran to fight & kill for #Assad in #Syria

Syria #Damascus Footages from besieged #Qudsaya suburb
-Heavy clashes today-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6Ptg1zaEP0#…
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Old 09-29-2016   #2853
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I will be posting again later this afternoon, a customer of ours in the manufacturing side had a serious hacking problem affecting his PLCs ...source is somewhere in western Russian and I have been massively side tracked because of this event.

Yes Russian cyber warfare either via Russian criminal gangs or state sponsored goes on all the time....

One thing is sure even with a break the Assad/Putin AF is still bombing, killing civilians, supporting starvation and basically acting like war criminals and the WEST still is basically silent.....so even with a break nothing really changes.
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Old 09-29-2016   #2854
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A telling development out of the US that I think the US Congress has not thoroughly thought through BUT still they slow stepped themselves off the cliff and ONE time I actually agree with Obama....

The new law passed allowing civilians to sue an sovereign state in US Courts has exposed now all US military, State Department, CIA, FBI and common American citizens to being arrested and charged in foreign courts...remember the Italians have charged and have wanted former CIA operatives who work the extra rendition in Italy. they have been shield by the State Department and have not left the US..BUT now who knows if the Italians file charges in a US court of law quoting this new law...

IF one thinks it through those US drone pilots and CAs pilots that hit the IS convoy near Ramadi and in Manbij the IDP building which verifiably killed over 100 civilians could actually under this new US law be charged with war crimes and arrested if they ever left the States...BUT wait they could even be charged in US Courts...

Secondly, I do not believe those in congress actually took the KSA threat seriously when they stated they will pull out their US investments in US Treasury Bonds valued at over 900B USD PLUS....other investments in order to protect them from Court decisions...which the Us cannot expect now foreign investors not to do....

THIS explicit threat was also passed directly to Obama on his last visit to KSA face to face......

NOW this can of worms has been opened...can one also now haul US citizens who supported the IRA with covert funding for over 30 years if the Brits file charges against a US citizen in US Courts...or can Germany now formally charge those sitting in Nebraska who fully fund those neo Nazi movements here in Germany with money and propaganda literature?

This is a international relations nightmare.....

CAN even KSA diplomats be hauled into court to testify against they own government OR can vice versa US diplomats be also questioned????

Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-29-2016 at 05:31 AM.
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Old 09-29-2016   #2855
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EuphratesShield3 #FSA declares Suran-Dabeq-Ahtimilat and Akhtareen Turkman Bareh military zones.

Euphrates Shield Forces captured Uwaylin and Ghurur from IS and are less than 5 km away from Akhtarin.

Syria #Russia'n airstrikes with Bunker Buster bombs on #Idlib city now

Syria #FSA took today Ziyadiyah, Ghurur & Uwaylin from #IS in northern #Aleppo
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...14&m=b#…

Activist reporting city of #Idlib struck for the first time with several parachute retarded bombs. "Bunker buster" type like #Aleppo?

#FSA destroyed an #ISIS car bomb S. of Al-Rai.

Hama: reports Regime sent this morning a large convoy of reinforcements with ~50 vehicles from #Aleppo towards #Hama using Khanasser road.

Reports large parts of #Handarat Camp seized by pro-Regime forces.

N. #Aleppo: pro-Regime forces storming again #Handarat Camp after wide shelling & many airstrikes.

Hama JaF stormed Junaynah (yesterday)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOp6...utu.be#…
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...15&m=b#…

Rebels approaching on Tayyibat al Ism in NE #Hama after taken over
Qarah & Khafseen villages + several CP
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...14&m=b#…

JFS storming barriers S. of Shatah.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABh7PbM5FbQ#…

Areas rebels captured since morning :

- Qarah village
- Khafseen village
- Bayt Sa'du CP
- Al-Khazan CP
- Al-Shylka CP
- Al-Tafteesh CP

What rebels captured today since morning :

- 4 tanks
- 2 BMPs
- Shilka vehicle
- 2 cars with ammunitions
- Light and Medium weapons

Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-29-2016 at 06:59 PM.
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Old 09-29-2016   #2856
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Intervention skeptics’ most common “veto” is that doing so => WW3 with #Russia.

Let’s flip it…

- Why on earth would #Moscow *want* WW3?
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Old 09-30-2016   #2857
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Addition of several AAS units - including the artillery-equipped Liwa Houriya Islami - appears to have added plenty of impetus to this insurgent offensive into northern Hama.

The AAS has stormed Junaynah, two days ago, then captured Qarah and Khafseen, and approached Tayyibat al-Ism, yesterday. That seems to have collapsed the defence of SSNP, NDF, IRGC and whatever other gangs are present in this area: Bayt Sa'adu (with a major command post for this area), al-Khazan, al-Shylka, and at-Tafteesh were captured during the morning together with 4 MBTs, 2 BMPs, 1 ZSU-23-4, two trucks loaded with ammo, and plenty of small arms.

Jund al-Aqsa (and the JFS-ex-JAN, which is a late-comer into this operation) is still primarily active on the eastern side of this advance - which regime fans hope might be stopped by (much announced) re-deployment of the Liwa Suqour ad-Daher

Rumour has it that the regime is actually just trying to buy time until defences in northern and western outskirts of Hama (city) are constructed: supposedly, they have de-facto abandoned the idea to defending the countryside north of the city.

This is particularly interesting considering Hama was so far protected either by loyalists or Russians, i.e. it saw relatively minor presence of the IRGC and various of its surrogates. Surely enough, the IRGC has deployed already two contingents of its own troops there, but these seem not to have had any kind of serious impact upon fighting.

My estimate is that unless the IRGC deploys major troop contingents there, the situation is not going to improve: Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are currently hauling every ounce of supplies they only can get into Idlib.
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