SMALL WARS COUNCIL
Go Back   Small Wars Council > Conflicts -- Current & Future > Other, By Region > Asia-Pacific

View Poll Results: What is the near-term future of the DPRK
It will fall into chaos as a result of renewed famine and poverty, resulting in military crackdowns. 3 15.79%
There will be a military coup that displaces the current leadership, hopefully soon. 4 21.05%
It will continue to remain a closed society, technologically dormant and otherwise insignificant. 12 63.16%
The leadership will eventually make a misstep, forcing military action from the United States. 0 0%
Voters: 19. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-24-2016   #501
AdamG
Council Member
 
AdamG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
Posts: 1,884
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
The consequences of one nuclear bomb smuggled into a port in a container

The NorKs keep threatening to hit the mainland USA. You don't need a long range missile for that, if you can move the firing platform right up to the target's front stoop.

See http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/nd-b5.htm

See also http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/wo...rk/missile.htm




See also http://www.strategycenter.net/resear...pub_detail.asp



Just park your cargo ship in with all the others off NOLA, set your fire control system to Remote and look at what you can range.

__________________
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
AdamG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-25-2016   #502
Bill Moore
Council Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,886
Default The expanding threat from a nuclear North Korea

I think we get overly focused on missile capabilities due to our tendency to apply mirror analysis and assume our adversaries seek to fight the way we do. Even after the non-traditional attack on our homeland on 9/11 the military-industrial complex as shown little real progress in addressing increasingly dangerous non-conventional threats.

However, that doesn't mean we should ignore missile technology, it may or may not be a red herring in this case, but it still bears watching as these two articles point out. At the end of the day, our adversaries have nuclear weapons, and they can be utilized in various ways to achieve their ends to include with and without missiles.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...g-on-n/?page=1

The miniaturization myth

Quote:
The public is being misled by the White House, some so-called “experts” and mainstream media casting doubt on whether the Great Leader’s threat is real. They claim North Korea has not demonstrated sufficient “miniaturization” of a nuclear weapon to be delivered by a missile.
Quote:
Technologically, “miniaturizing” a nuclear warhead is much easier than developing an atomic bomb or a multi-stage missile for orbiting satellites — as North Korea has already done.
Quote:
On February 7, North Korea orbited a second satellite, the KSM-4, to join their KSM-3 satellite launched in December 2012.

Both satellites now are in south polar orbits, evading many U.S. missile defense radars and flying over the United States from the south, where our defenses are limited. Both satellites — if nuclear armed — could make an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack that could blackout the U.S. electric grid for months or years, thereby killing millions.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...-kor/?page=all

Hyper-proliferation in North Korea
Help from China and Russia makes the situation all the more dangerous

After laying out how the author believes China and Russia are helping North Korea with their nuclear program, he ends with

Quote:
Some of the implications of hyper-proliferation are that Russia and China are part of the problem, not part of the solution; that hyper-proliferation by these actors is a weapon in the New Cold War; and that we should
reassess the nuclear missile threat from other nations of concern — including Pakistan and Iran.
Peter Vincent Pry is executive director of the EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security and served in the Congressional EMP Commission, the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, the House Armed Services Committee and the CIA.
Bill Moore is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2016   #503
AdamG
Council Member
 
AdamG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
Posts: 1,884
Default

Best Korea must need more free USGovernment cheese.

Quote:
SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea said on Wednesday it had conducted a ballistic missile test that simulated pre-emptive strikes against South Korean ports and airfields used by the U.S. military, a likely reference to the launches of three missiles on Tuesday.

*

Lee Chun-geun, a scientist at South Korea's Science and Technology Policy Institute, said that the North Korean missiles were believed to be carrying warheads, which contain trigger devices but not plutonium or uranium, to see whether those warheads could detonate properly.

The launches were the latest in a series of weapons tests North Korea has carried out since Kim in March ordered tests of a nuclear warhead explosion and ballistic missiles capable of carrying such warheads.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-ko...es-u-s-n613016
__________________
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
AdamG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-2016   #504
AdamG
Council Member
 
AdamG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
Posts: 1,884
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
I think we get overly focused on missile capabilities due to our tendency to apply mirror analysis and assume our adversaries seek to fight the way we do. Even after the non-traditional attack on our homeland on 9/11 the military-industrial complex as shown little real progress in addressing increasingly dangerous non-conventional threats.

However, that doesn't mean we should ignore missile technology, it may or may not be a red herring in this case, but it still bears watching as these two articles point out. At the end of the day, our adversaries have nuclear weapons, and they can be utilized in various ways to achieve their ends to include with and without missiles.
Nothing was said about *just* a missile attack. Depending on who is involved and what their perceived victory conditions are, an attack might involve 1) missile(s) + 2) hacking +3) terror attacks on select targets + 4) infrastructure attacks (see California power grid) and whatever chaos is caused from that equation might be more about hamstringing a US response to a changing situation somewhere else on this globe.
__________________
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
AdamG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-02-2016   #505
AdamG
Council Member
 
AdamG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
Posts: 1,884
Default

Gosh. How did we miss the Mu Du Bong mystery?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cPhwfXohDA

See also
http://www.rfa.org/english/news/kore...015140502.html

Quote:
Then, for nine straight days, from July 1-9, the Mu Du Bong stopped signaling on AIS, and disappeared from the commercial shipping grid. It’s possible the ship was simply sitting quietly at anchor. But there are echoes here not only of the Chong Chon Gang, but of a number of other North Korean-flagged freighters which over the years have followed this pattern of dropping off the grid in the vicinity of Cuba. In congressional testimony last September, illicit-trafficking expert Hugh Griffiths, of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, described this practice as “a common risk indicator of maritime trafficking.”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/claudiar.../#2097b55c492a


Current location

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/...sel:MU_DU_BONG
__________________
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
AdamG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2016   #506
AdamG
Council Member
 
AdamG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
Posts: 1,884
Default

Quote:
North Korea has launched two ballistic missile toward the Sea of Japan, one of which exploded immediately after launch, according to the US. The move has been condemned by the country’s southern neighbor, as well as Japan and Washington.

The projectile that was launched at about 7:50am local time (around midnight GMT), and, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, flew for about 1,000 km (620 miles) before landing in Japan's economic exclusion zone. US Strategic Command said it had also detected a second launch which resulted in failure.
https://www.rt.com/news/354410-korea...qCxt2N8.reddit
__________________
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
AdamG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2016   #507
AdamG
Council Member
 
AdamG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
Posts: 1,884
Default

Quote:
SEOUL, Aug. 13 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Saturday accused the United States of seeking to invade the communist state in the near future, and threatened to launch a nuclear strike against the U.S. at any sign of such a move.
*

Quote:
The commentary came three days after Washington said it has deployed three B-2 stealth bombers to Guam in response to repeated and heightened provocations from the communist North that included recent missile launches.

Pyongyang, however, claimed the deployment of nuclear capable U.S. bombers only showed U.S. intention to invade the North.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/nati...04500320F.html
__________________
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
AdamG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-24-2016   #508
AdamG
Council Member
 
AdamG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
Posts: 1,884
Default

Quote:
North Korea has fired a ballistic missile from a submarine off its east coast, say the US and South Korea.

The KN-11 missile was launched from waters near Sinpo and flew about 500km (300 miles) before falling into the Sea of Japan, a US official said.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missile fell inside Japan's Air Defence Identification Zone.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37171608?SThisFB
__________________
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
AdamG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-10-2016   #509
AdamG
Council Member
 
AdamG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
Posts: 1,884
Default

Quote:
North Korea says it has successfully carried out its fifth nuclear test, in continued defiance of UN resolutions.
A 5.3 magnitude tremor had earlier been detected near its nuclear test site.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37314927
__________________
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
AdamG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-11-2016   #510
AdamG
Council Member
 
AdamG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
Posts: 1,884
Default

Quote:
The BBC's Korea correspondent Steve Evans says the South is using the same bloodcurdling rhetoric that the North frequently uses about the South Korean government in Seoul.
He says there has been rising criticism within South Korea of the government as its attempts to isolate the North have failed to deter leader Kim Jong-un's nuclear ambitions.
News of South Korea's attack plan for the North is believed to have been revealed to parliament following Friday's nuclear test.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37331852
__________________
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
AdamG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-14-2016   #511
AdamG
Council Member
 
AdamG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
Posts: 1,884
Default

From October 8th

Quote:
SEOUL — North Korea conducted its first nuclear test exactly 10 years ago Sunday, exploding a crude atomic bomb and crossing what had long been considered a “red line.”
A decade of condemnation, sanctions and ostracism later, the regime in Pyongyang has not pulled back. Far from it.
Today, the country has a demonstrated nuclear weapons program, has made clear progress with missiles and is widely assumed to be able to put the two together. The only real question now is whether North Korea can deliver a nuclear-tipped missile to a target, and that is not much of a question. If it cannot yet, it will soon, analysts say.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...02f_story.html
__________________
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
AdamG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 Week Ago   #512
AdamG
Council Member
 
AdamG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
Posts: 1,884
Default

Quote:
The former top American commander in South Korea on Thursday said the Trump administration must be ready to launch a pre-emptive strike on North Korea before it tests a long-range missile capable of hitting the U.S. mainland.
http://www.defensetech.org/2016/12/0...e-north-korea/
__________________
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
AdamG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 Week Ago   #513
Azor
Council Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 243
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamG View Post
When these sorts of ideas are entertained by CSIS panelists, you can be assured that this is no joke.

Perhaps this is a message to Beijing that it needs to come to Jesus?
Azor is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Tags
china, japan, korea, nuclear weapons, russia, usa, war

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
The North Caucasus: Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia SWJED Central Asia 145 10-26-2016 08:58 PM
Pakistani politics (catch all) SWJED South Asia 279 01-22-2014 05:29 AM
The Islamic Insurgents (catch all) Jedburgh Asia-Pacific 53 11-28-2011 04:48 AM
KN Nuclear Test News Roundup SWJED The Whole News 4 11-05-2006 01:59 AM


All times are GMT. The time now is 12:17 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8. ©2000 - 2016, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Registered Users are solely responsible for their messages.
Operated by, and site design © 2005-2009, Small Wars Foundation