I am sure there is an element of payback here, but I think the Russians would have been up to something like this, anyway. Absent Kosovo, this or something like this would have happened regardless, Russia has wanted to bring its "near abroad" to heel for a long time now. I guess they've started to eat their Wheaties.Originally Posted by Uboat509
He cloaked himself in a veil of impenetrable terminology.
Black Sea Access?
In the Aug '08 Jane's Navy magazine, Ukraine is drafting legislation to remove the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol by 2017.
Maritime access is a sensitive issue for Russia, especially year round ports.
Interesting that Russia attacks into another Black Sea nation on the heels of the Ukraine announcement (and the heated Russian counter-statements).
The Russians have access to the Black Sea all along east of Kertsch.
Currently Novorisiysk is being expanded into a major navy port. But it has poor connection with the hinterland, no airport and very strong and unfavourable winds at times. Anyways, the Sevastopol thing is far more political than operational.
August 5 there was an explosion on the BTC pipeline in eastern Turkey, still hasn't been extinguished, PKK is claiming responsibility. Is there any possibility that the Russian's, who have long supported the PKK, coordinated with them to tie-up any potential Turkish response? (Not sure on the depth of Georgian-Turkish defense relations, but know they are cordial terms)
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/pubs/ph/detai...10622&id=54679MOSCOW MOVES TO DE FACTO ANNEXATION OF GEORGIAN BREAKAWAY REGIONS
By Svante E. Cornell and David J. Smith (04/16/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Moscow’s promised response to the Kosovo settlement in the Caucasus appears to be materializing. For several weeks, Russian leaders from President Vladimir Putin down have taken new bold steps that encroach even further and more directly on Georgia’s territorial integrity than is already the case. On April 16, Russia’s outgoing president Vladimir Putin signed a decree moving toward the de facto annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, removing the tiny fig leaf still present regarding Moscow’s ambitions of direct control over Georgia’s breakaway regions. These moves could to trigger a spiral of instability in the wider region, unless a forceful western response is found.
http://www.core-hamburg.de/documents...04/K%F6nig.pdfMarietta König
The Georgian-South Ossetian Conflict
http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4816TBILISI WITHDRAWS FROM THE JOINT CONTROL COMMISSION; PROPOSES NEW FORMAT FOR SOUTH OSSETIA
By Niklas Nilsson (03/19/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Russia has in the aftermath of Kosovo's declaration of independence further reinforced its support for South Ossetia, as well as Abkhazia, stressing the importance of Kosovo as a precedent for other ethnic conflicts. On March 6, Russia withdrew from the 1996 CIS treaty imposing economic sanctions on Abkhazia and has subsequently held discussions in the State Duma on the prospects for recognizing the independence of the two regions. Russia's envoy to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, has also sought to connect these decisions to the outcomes of the Bucharest NATO summit in April, where a verdict will likely be cast on Georgia's prospects for obtaining a Membership Action Plan within NATO. Several NATO members oppose a MAP for Georgia due to the implications Georgia's unresolved conflicts and its troubled relations with Russia may have for the alliance.
Last edited by kaur; 08-09-2008 at 06:58 PM.
According to news reports the Russians have committed 500 armored vehicles, 150 tanks, deployed the Black Sea fleet and is planning a 100 plane airborne insertion.
In other words, it seems likely the Russians are going to attempt to conquer the whole of Georgia, and either re-absorb it or install a puppet government.
He cloaked himself in a veil of impenetrable terminology.
In future posts, when making comments of this nature, provide a source. If you cannot provide a direct link, at a minimum clearly state the source of your information.
I didn't mean it as a payback thing. Several people on this board predicted that recognizing Kososvo would give every "break away republic" the idea that they all have a right to be freed from whatever country they currently fall under. That, of course, includes SO. I doubt anyone here seriously believes that Russia cares about poor oppressed South Ossetia but it does make nice pretext for Russia to pee in Georgia's Wheaties. I'm going to make a prediction that no matter who wins the South Ossetians lose.
SFC W
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