Welcome to the interesting situation in Southwest Asia.

I agree that the "Arab Spring" could go off in an extremist (Islamist) direction. Moreover, the best result that could be expected in any country is the present state of Turkey (as I'd likely view the results from where I sit). As things stand in Southwest Asia and North Africa, Turkey is a moderating force.

The AKP - Justice and Development Party (Turkey) and its "paper of record", the Turkish daily Zaman ("era in time"; as in "our times" or the "Times") [TZ - Today's Zaman, the English-language edition], as moderate Islamics (not Islamists), portray themselves as favorable to both the Western world and to the Arab world. In the Turkish political spectrum, AKP advocates a conservative social agenda and a liberal market economy that includes Turkish membership in the European Union; but has pursued an aggressive "good guy" image to the Arab world since 2005.

While Turkey has not always been an admirable society, its core component (its ordinary people, solidly Islamic) have qualities that I find admirable. E.g., during the Korean War, Turkish POWs died not from starvation (they ate weeds), but from wounds inflicted by their captors. When the senior Turk was removed, the next senior took his place. The Turks never broke. The net result is that I follow TZ whenever something comes up in the Turkish sphere.

That being said, my news item is not from TZ, but from the Washington Post.

Syria’s Bashar al-Assad firmly in control, U.S. intelligence officials say (by Greg Miller and Karen DeYoung, Published: March 9; Updated: Saturday, March 10) (emphasis added):

A year into the uprising in Syria, senior U.S. intelligence officials described the nation’s president, Bashar al-Assad, on Friday as firmly in control and increasingly willing to unleash one of the region’s most potent militaries on badly overmatched opposition groups.

The officials also said Assad’s inner circle is “remaining steadfast,” with little indication that senior figures in the regime are inclined to peel off, despite efforts by the Obama administration and its allies to use sanctions and other measures to create a wave of defections that would undermine Assad.

Assad “is very much in charge,” said a senior U.S. intelligence official responsible for tracking the conflict, adding that Assad and his inner circle seem convinced that the rebellion is being driven by external foes and that they are equipped to withstand all but a large-scale military intervention.
... (much more in article)
In contingency planning, one must consider "a large-scale military intervention" as a contingency. Given the geographic proximity, one must first consider Turkey (sans US-NATO to keep it basic) as the intervenor, giving my two basic hypotheticals (presented a few pages ago):

1. If Turkey were to proceed with a conventional armed intervention - a 1 on 1 with Syria with full commitment of military forces by both states, who would win ?

No US-NATO support of any kind for the Turks; and Russia and China stay out of it completely (other than making noises about "aggressive war", etc.).
2. If Turkey were to proceed with a conventional armed intervention into Syria, and Iran responds with a conventional armed attack on Turkey - a 2 on 1 with full commitment of military forces by all three states, who would win ?

No US-NATO support of any kind for the Turks; and Russia and China stay out of it completely (other than making noises about "aggressive war", etc.).
If you want a definition of "win" - find, fix and finish by destroying the enemy's will to resist.

Contingency planning would also include diplomatic solutions. Here is one suggested to me from reading TZ and its columnists over the last few months:

A Turkish-brokered diplomatic deal involving Turkey, Iran and the Arab League (Saudi and the Gulf states as the money partners) being the "peacekeepers" and guarantors of limited negotiated external interests (Russia-China; US-NATO) - a reverse Sykes-Picot, in effect.
That would enhance Turkey's "good guy" image, but would probably involve some other goodies that the AKP appears to want.

Finally, my personal position stands alongside Gian Gentile and Peter Munson.

Regards

Mike

Hey Ray: Cooperation and Friendship !