The US & others working with Pakistan

[AdamG]

LAHORE, Pakistan, May 30 (Reuters) - Pakistani security officials have detained a former navy commando and his brother in connection with last week's militant attack on a naval air base, intelligence officials and relatives said on Monday.
*
Kamran Ahmed, who was sacked from the navy about 10 years ago, and his younger brother, Zaman, were picked up from the eastern city of Lahore on Friday, five days after the attack that killed at least 10 military personnel.

"They have been detained in connection with the naval base attack and are under interrogation," one intelligence official said, without giving details.

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/e...an-base-attack

?

Missing journalist in ISI custody, says HRW

By Afnan Khan

LAHORE: The Human Rights Watch (HRW) has, through credible sources, learnt that journalist Saleem Shahzad is in custody of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), HRW’s Pakistan representative Ali Dayan Hasan told Daily Times on Monday.

Dayan remarked that the ISI remained a major human rights abuser in Pakistan and it frequently kept abusing and torturing those journalists it disagreed with. He further said the HRW had previously documented similar cases of abduction and torture on journalists by security agencies.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...1-5-2011_pg1_2

[omarali50]

incompetent or involved. There really is no third option here.
Which is worse? I think incompetent is worse because then its the end of the line. Involved at least implies an evil kind of competence.
Actually its very bad news no matter how you look at it. Very bad news indeed.

[carl]

A few years ago there was serious concern in some quarters that Pakistan was with six moths of collapse and it didn't happen. Bin Laden's killing seems to have upset what might have passed for the status quo in the country. Mr. Shahzad's murder within days of his publishing a story closely linking AQ and Pakistan's armed forces seems particularly brazen and almost direct testimony about how deeply the jihadis have penetrated.

How close is Pakistan to falling apart?

[omarali50]

Saleem Shahzad's last interview: http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?...4&jumival=6802

I was talking to an old friend yesterday and he made this point: WITHIN Pakistna, the Pakistani army has the remarkable ability to create a public relations victory out of every disaster. They did so in 1965. It took them a few years, but they recovered from 1971 enough to launch a semi-popular coup in 1977. They lost in Kargil, but within a few months the person kicked out was Nawaz Sharif and the architect of Kargil became an initially popular coup leader. They were shocked by the American response to 9-11 but they have never given up hope that they can make an omelette out of broken eggs on this occasion as well and at a personal level, they certainly made a lot of money out of this setback to their regional jihadi dreams.
It might be a mistake to assume that they are going to fall apart after Abbotabad and Mehran. Already, they have managed to blame the civilian govt and its issuance of "visas to Americans" for the loss of Bin Laden. The Mehran base humiliation is to be blamed on 6 Americans who were "mysteriously" in the base that night and who even more "mysteriously" disappeared the next day. i am not kidding. That is the scenario being presented on pro-military websites, complete with vague hints that "Blackwater" was involved.
Saleem Shahzad had blown the lid off that attempt at blaming the CIA and RAW and probably got whacked for his pains (maybe the plan was not to kill him, but to torture him to teach him a lesson..the poor sod died under torture...weak heart? who knows). My point is, it aint over till the fat lady sings. And when it comes to Pak army psyops, it aint over even then. Like the Black Knight in Monty Python, we are never defeated....
More seriously, I think they ARE in trouble right now and dont know how to get out of it. The traditional way to get out of trouble in Pakistan has been to blame India and raise the flag of Islam. Since that connects well with the two-nation theory and the (shallow, but wide) national narrative built around that blessed theory, the army has always managed to grab the propaganda initiative. But there are problems now. e.g., even the clueless infidels are beginning to figure out that these two old reliable methods also lead to other less desirable consequences. And of course, the jihadists have the high ground on Islam, so the army is in a serious bind. They need a new script and they dont have script writers who can write it. This time, they are losing control of the narrative. And I get the impression that nobody knows what comes next.
What may save them is that the infidels will panic and throw money at them. That always seems to take away the pain for a while.

[Ray]

67% of Pakistanis for 'Islamisation' of society: Poll

ISLAMABAD: A majority of Pakistanis favour the government taking steps for the "Islamisation" of society and almost a third of them believe the process should be completed in one go, according to new survey. A total of 67 per cent replied in the affirmative when they were asked during the survey carried out by Gallup Pakistan whether the government should take steps to "Islamise" the society.

Only 13 per cent said they believed there is no need for "Islamisation" while 20 per cent gave no response.

Forty eight per cent of respondents said steps to Islamise the society "should be taken one by one" while 31 per cent said the "steps should be taken at once". Twenty one per cent gave no response to a question on the process of Islamisation.

The study was carried out by Gallup Pakistan, the affiliate of Gallup International.

The survey was carried out among a sample of 2,738 men and women in rural and urban areas of all four provinces of Pakistan during January.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/w...ow/8680030.cms

While surfing a Pakistani website, it was interesting that while they were keen on Islamisation, yet none were able to enunciate what do they want as 'Islamisation', when in actuality they were already an Islamic Republic and Sharia is also applicable.

There were a minority that also asked the question as to what is Islamisation and is 5000 Mosques in one city not enough etc?

[omarali50]

The irony is that there is absolutely no such thing as a Sunni Islamic system waiting to be implemented. "Islam" is a useful slogan (once very fondly embraced by the CIA for its own purposes) and will no doubt continue to be used as a recruiting and motivational tool by many organizations and individuals, but contrary to popular belief, there IS no such things as an "Islamic system". The existing works of orthodox Sunni political and legal thought were composed in medieval times and assume the existence of some absolutist ruler (usually monarchical, some are anti-monarchical) and social and economic circumstances that approximate the 12th century CE. NOTHING exists beyond that.
There is no there there.

[davidbfpo]

He opens with:

The struggle for control of Pakistan - soon to be the fifth most populous country in the world with the fifth largest nuclear arsenal - intensifies every day. The outcome is far from certain. The key player, Pakistan's army, seems dangerously ambivalent about which side should prevail: the jihadist Frankenstein it created or the democratically elected civilian government it despises.

Given his position as an adviser to the US government this is quite stark IMHO:

The jihadist penetrations of the army raise persistent questions about the security of Pakistan's nukes. According to a WikiLeaked State Department cable, from September 2009, France's national security adviser Jean-David Levitte told the American Embassy in Paris that France believes it is not secure. Levitte is one of the most astute diplomats in the world today, and he is almost certainly right.

Link:http://www.realclearworld.com/articl...day-newsletter

Why this French diplomat would offer such a judgement eludes me. Yes, the French have an interest in Pakistan, IMHO behind two others. The French have some links to the Pakistani military, albeit mainly to the navy (submarines) and the air force (various Mirage types).

[carl]

David: I've read that the various North African jihadi groups have seen France as their favorite enemy since before 9-11. The French have helped us a lot since 9-11 and have done a seemingly good job of keeping the the jihadis suppressed inside France. I would imagine they are concerned because if one of those nukes got loose, France would be as likely a target as anybody else.

One other thing crosses my mind and I invite comment. If Taliban & Co. take Afghanistan, or even a substantial portion of it, wouldn't this be as bad for Pakistan as for anybody, if not worse? The Afghan Taliban and the anti-Pakistan Taliban are good buddies. I've never seen much evidence that they are inclined to go after each other, rather they are inclined to cooperate. So, if Afghan Taliban gets control of substantial lands west of the Durand line, not just a district or two, won't TTP & Co. have a whopping great sanctuary from which to strike Pakistan?

[davidbfpo]

Carl,

Yes, I am sure the French are concerned at the loss of a Pakistani nuclear weapon or just the vital component parts. My surprise was the weight given to the French diplomat's views.

As for your theme:

..If Taliban & Co. take Afghanistan, or even a substantial portion of it, wouldn't this be as bad for Pakistan as for anybody, if not worse?..

I would expect that the Pakistani Army / ISI have looked at that possibility and considered their options. There would be some irony if the Taliban re-asserted control over Southern Afghanistan, then offered sanctuary to the PTT and the Pakistani Army had to guard the Durand Line on a different scale.

From my "armchair" I do not see the PTT needs that much of a sanctuary, there are still large swathes of NWFP / FATA beyond effective state control, more importantly the PTT and allies have facilities in urban areas. Not to overlook parts of South Punjab, which are reported to host fundamentalist extremists.

Do the PTT want to challenge the Pakistani state in the lowlands or just evict them from the FATA? I don't know.

The other extremists pose the biggest danger to the Pakistani state, for example if the LeT leadership cannot maintain discipline. Only rarely are these factions dealt with bluntly by the Pakistani state. Quite a contrast to the PTT who have been, notably in the Swat Valley - not part of the FATA.

[davidbfpo]

Pakistan's dreaded spy agency, the ISI, is back in the spotlight, accused of murdering journalist Saleem Shahzad. The agency's engagement with the media has become progressively more virulent as the "war on terror" has progressed. BBC Urdu editor Aamer Ahmed Khan asks whether anyone can bring the ISI under control.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13638478

[davidbfpo]

The BBC are reporting his confirmed death:

..a major psychological blow to al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and will also make it more difficult for wanted militant leaders to find safe places to go......He is widely believed to have masterminded an audacious attack on the Mehran naval airbase in Karachi last month...many would be led to believe the Pakistani intelligence operatives had a role in leading the Americans to Kashmiri..

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13653324

In tonight's BBC News the reporter stated Pakistan is claiming it's information led to the US drone strike.

His BBC obituary:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13655883

This indicates a link to the Mumbai attack following the Chicago trial testimony.

Seems that several national interests were served by this attack.

[Ray]

The irony is that there is absolutely no such thing as a Sunni Islamic system waiting to be implemented. "Islam" is a useful slogan (once very fondly embraced by the CIA for its own purposes) and will no doubt continue to be used as a recruiting and motivational tool by many organizations and individuals, but contrary to popular belief, there IS no such things as an "Islamic system". The existing works of orthodox Sunni political and legal thought were composed in medieval times and assume the existence of some absolutist ruler (usually monarchical, some are anti-monarchical) and social and economic circumstances that approximate the 12th century CE. NOTHING exists beyond that.
There is no there there.

I think you are right that there is Sunni Islamic system.

Yet, there appears to be an eternal jockeying of power amongst the Sunni and the Shia 'systems' of governance.

Where the Sunnis are a majority, they enforce their 'system' and where there are Shias, they enforce their 'system'.

There is no official or recognised 'system' and instead it is more of a ' I am better than you Muslim' sort of a feeling and hence imposition, call it for the sake of ease, a 'system'.

Take the chaos in Bahrain.

It appears to be more of the historical fight for supremacy between the Sunnis and Shias, than any genuine grievances.

Take Pakistan itself. They are flooding the Northern Areas (Shia majority) with Pashtuns so that the demography changes and there are more Sunnis than Shias and Pakistan is a Sunni majority country.

I will concede I am not well versed and my comments are merely as an observer.

Why is this jockeying, when the religion is same?

[davidbfpo]

A FP piece that puts the Sino-Pakistani relationship in a different context, notably over the port of Gwadar:

State visits between friendly countries seldom produce surprises or unscripted moments, but the recent trip to China by top Pakistani officials managed to do just that.

Upon returning to Islamabad, the defense minister, Ahmed Mukhtar, made two eyebrow-raising announcements: first, that Beijing had agreed to take over operation of Gwadar port in Baluchistan, and, second, that he had invited the Chinese to build a naval base there. China's leaders, seemingly caught unaware by these statements, promptly denied them.

Which ends with:

Pakistan remains a very important ally, but China has too much at stake to be dragged unwittingly into Islamabad's soap opera with Washington.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...pearl?page=0,0

[carl]

That is how the Denver Post headlined this story picked up from the Washington Post this morning.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...y.html?hpid=z1

The Washington Post headlined the same story "New Challenge for U.S.-Pakistan Ties."

The exact same story, about how the US gave Pakistan exact info and location of 2 bomb making factories in North and South Waziristan that turned out to have been recently evacuated when the Pak Army showed up, and yet radically different headlines. I guess the headline editor at the Washington Post is in with the political/military elite. The reporters not so much. The Denver Post editors, not at all.

The Denver Post headline accurately reflects the content of the story, catches your eye and invites you to read it. The Washington Post headline has nothing to do with the content of the story and is of such a nature as to cause people to skip it as just another in the long line of U.S.-Pakistan relationship stories. Fascinating.

The other thing is most of the story had to come from US officials who want to highlight the perfidy of the Pak Army-ISI. But the WaPo editors want to hide it. There must be a big fight going on inside the beltway right now about this.

[omarali50]

http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/06/...n-after-osama/

[davidbfpo]

In a rare public comment ex-ISI Director, General Ehsan ul-Haq, in London stated:

It would be totally uncharacteristic of al Qaeda to keep its No. 1 in one place for five years....He might've been there for only a few months....He must've thought it was safe..because the town has experienced no serious acts of terror.....How was it that we weren't the ones who picked him up? That was an embarrassment.

Link:http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/06/0...#ixzz1P0fmCcys

[Bill Moore]

Breaking News Alert
The New York Times
Tuesday, June 14, 2011 -- 10:32 PM EDT
-----

Pakistan Arrests C.I.A. Informants Who Aided Bin Laden Raid

Pakistan’s top military spy agency has arrested some of the Pakistani informants who fed information to the Central Intelligence Agency in the months leading up to the raid that led to the death of Osama bin Laden, according to American officials.

Pakistan’s detention of five C.I.A. informants, including a Pakistani Army major who officials said copied the license plates of cars visiting Bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in the weeks before the raid, is the latest evidence of the fractured relationship between the United States and Pakistan. It comes at a time when the Obama administration is seeking Pakistan’s support in brokering an endgame in the war in neighboring Afghanistan.

The fate of the C.I.A. informants arrested in Pakistan is unclear, but American officials said that the C.I.A. director, Leon E. Panetta, raised the issue when he travelled to Islamabad last week to meet with Pakistani military and intelligence officers.

Read More:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/wo...cy.html?emc=na

[davidbfpo]

Bill,

Thanks for posting that. It just shows that patience will be rewarded.

On the 4th May 2011 I noted a small detail in The Guardian's report on the OBL raid:

Note the nearest neighbour's house was occupied by a Pakistani Army major.

The fuller quote from the article:

But there was no sign of life from a nearby property, about 50 metres from Bin Laden's back wall, with a high perimeter wall and two watchtowers. Neighbours said it had been built three years ago by a man whose family has long owned property in the area. The nameplate read: Major Amir Aziz. Locals said he was a serving Pakistan army officer. Despite repeated rings on the doorbell, he refused to answer.

The latest article has:

..including a Pakistani Army major who officials said copied the license plates of cars visiting Bin Laden’s compound..

If all true then it makes the point human sources have a vital role even when hi-tech techniques are available.

[davidbfpo]

Not unexpectedly an official denial a Pakistani Army major was detained:

The Pakistani army denied Wednesday that one of its majors was among a group of Pakistanis who Western officials say were arrested for feeding the CIA information before the American raid that killed Osama bin Laden.

Link:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/cia_pakis...lzdGFuZGVuaQ--

[omarali50]

This news is being presented in many cases in a slightly misleading manner, since it is more like they have just picked up everyone connected with Waziristan manzil, not just the CIA informants. But maybe some of them are CIA informants and that has pissed off the Americans. Meanwhile, the jihadis are pissed because GHQ is considered too pro-american. This is called GHQs brilliant sau gundey tey say cHittar strategy.

i.e. Opting for one hundred lashes and one hundred onions; for those who have not heard the story, a man was to be punished and was given the choice of eating a hundred onions or getting a hundred lashes. He opted for the onions but after 3-4 thought this is too hard and switched to lashes, but after 5 of those, he switched again to onions..he ended up with a hundred of both.

Whatever they do will not satisfy either the jihadis or the Americans…they would be better off picking one side and sticking to it…But but but..picking the jihadis would mean no more green cards and sons studying in Wharton. Picking the US would mean betraying Islam, Pakistan and the two-nation theory.
What would Jesus do?
Our discussion is at http://www.brownpundits.com/2011/06/...ants/#comments